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Backgrounds: The study aimed to estimate bladder cancer burden and its attributable risk factors in China, Japan, South Korea, North Korea and Mongolia from 1990 to 2019, to discuss the potential causes of the disparities. Methods: Data were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. The annual percent change (APC) and average annual percent change (AAPC) were calculated by Joinpoint analysis, and the independent age, period and cohort effects were estimated by age-period-cohort analysis. Results: In 2019, the highest incidence (7.70 per 100,000) and prevalence (51.09 per 100,000) rates of bladder cancer were in Japan, while the highest mortality (2.31 per 100,000) and DALY rates (41.88 per 100,000) were in South Korea and China, respectively. From 1990 to 2019, the age-standardized incidence and prevalence rates increased in China, Japan and South Korea (AAPC > 0) and decreased in Mongolia (AAPC < 0), while mortality and DALY rates decreased in all five countries (AAPC < 0). Age effects showed increasing trends for incidence, mortality and DALY rates, while the prevalence rates increased first and then decreased in older groups. The cohort effects showed downward trends from 1914–1918 to 2004–2008. Smoking was the greatest contributor and males had the higher burden than females. Conclusion: Bladder cancer was still a major public health problem in East Asia. Male and older population suffered from higher risk, and smoking played an important role. It is recommended that more efficient preventions and interventions should be operated among high-risk populations, thereby reduce bladder cancer burden in East Asia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The effectiveness of crisis response can be influenced by various structural, cultural, and functional aspects within a social system. This study uses a configurational approach to identify combinations of sociopolitical conditions that lead to a high case fatality rate (CFR) of COVID-19 in OECD countries. Methods: A Fuzzy set qualitative comparative analysis (QCA) is conducted on a sample of 38 OECD countries. The outcome to be explained is high COVID-19 CFR. The five potentially causal conditions are level of democracy, state capacity, trust in government, health expenditure per capita, and the median age of population. A comprehensive QCA robustness test protocol is applied, which includes sensitivity ranges, fit-oriented robustness, and case-oriented robustness tests. Results: None of the causal conditions in both the presence and negation form were found to be necessary for high or low levels of COVID-19 CFR. Two different combinations of sociopolitical conditions were usually sufficient for the occurrence of a high CFR of COVID-19 in OECD countries. Low state capacity and low trust in government are part of both recipes. The entire solution formula covers 84 percent of the outcome. Some countries have been identified as contradictory cases. The explanations for their COVID-19 CFR require more in-depth case studies. Conclusions: From a governance perspective, the weakness of government in effectively implementing policies, and the citizens' lack of confidence in their government, combined with other structural conditions, serve as barriers to mounting an effective response to COVID-19. These findings can support the idea that the effects of social determinants of COVID-19 outcomes are interconnected and reinforcing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: This study examines global trends in acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS) incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) from 1990 to 2019, focusing on regional disparities in AIDS incidence, mortality, and DALYs across various levels of socio-demographic index (SDI). It also investigates variations in AIDS incidence, mortality, and DALYs across different age groups, and projects specific trends for the next 25 years. Methods: Comprehensive data on AIDS from 1990 to 2019 in 204 countries and territories was obtained from a GBD study. This included information on AIDS incidence, mortality, DALYs, and age-standardized rates (ASRs). Projections for AIDS incidence and mortality over the next 25 years were generated using the Bayesian age-period-cohort model. Results: From 1990 to 2019, the global incidence of HIV cases increased from 1,989,282 to 2,057,710, while the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) decreased from 37.59 to 25.24 with an estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) of -2.38. The ASIR exhibited an upward trend in high SDI and high-middle SDI regions, a stable trend in middle SDI regions, and a downward trend in low-middle SDI and low SDI regions. In regions with higher SDI, the ASIR was higher in males than in females, while the opposite was observed in lower SDI regions. Throughout 1990 to 2019, the age-standardized death rate (ASDR) and age-standardized DALY rate remained stable, with EAPCs of 0.24 and 0.08 respectively. Countries with the highest HIV burden affecting women and children under five years of age are primarily situated in lower SDI regions, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa. Projections indicate a significant continued decline in the age-standardized incidence and mortality rates of AIDS over the next 25 years, for both overall and by gender. Conclusions: The global ASIR decreased from 1990 to 2019. Higher incidence and death rates were observed in the lower SDI region, indicating a greater susceptibility to AIDS among women and < 15 years old. This underscores the urgent need for increased resources to combat AIDS in this region, with focused attention on protecting women and < 15 years old as priority groups. The AIDS epidemic remained severe in sub-Saharan Africa. Projections for the next 25 years indicate a substantial and ongoing decline in both age-standardized incidence and mortality rates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Although the Healthy Eating Index (HEI) is widely recommended to reduce the risk of cardiovascular disease and all-cause death, there are significant differences in physiological and nutritional factors between the sexes. The potential impact of sex on adult dietary health is still poorly understood. The study was designed to assess whether the health benefits of diet differed by sex. Methods: In a prospective study of 39,567 U.S. adults (51.2% female, age 46.8 ± 17.6 years), we examined sex-specific, multivariable-adjusted associations of HEI with all-cause mortality and cardiovascular disease mortality. Restricted cubic splines (RCS), subgroup analysis, propensity score matching (PSM), random forest feature importance, and sensitivity analysis were also used. Results: During 328,403 person-years of follow-up, a total of 4754 all-cause deaths were recorded, including 1481 cardiovascular deaths. Compared to the lowest quartile of HEI, the all-cause mortality rate of females and males in the highest quartile array decreased by 34% (HR 0.66 [95% CI 0.55–0.8]) and 15% (HR 0.85 [95% CI 0.73–0.99]), respectively. The restricted cubic spline showed a linear inverse association between baseline HEI and all-cause mortality and CVD mortality, with similar sex-specific results. Similarly, component scores were sex-specific for mortality risk, with females benefiting more from diet. The benefits of dairy products, vegetables, and sodium scores on the risk of all-cause death were higher in males and females. However, the benefits of vegetable, sodium, and fatty acid scores on the risk of cardiovascular death were different. Conclusions: In the adult population of the U.S., there are more opportunities for females to reduce the risk of all-cause mortality and cardiovascular mortality from the same dose of healthy dietary intake than males. These findings could reduce the risk of death by motivating the population, especially females, to consume healthy dietary components, especially vegetables and dairy products. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: To analyse hospital case fatality and mortality related to Chagas disease (CD) in Brazil, 2000–2019. Method: This is a mixed ecological study with spatial and temporal trends, based on national population data from the Brazilian Ministry of Health - hospital admissions (HA) and death certificates (DC). Records with CD as a primary or secondary cause of death in HA and/or as an underlying or associated cause of death in DC were evaluated. Temporal trends were analysed by Joinpoint regression and the spatial distribution of age- and gender-adjusted rates, spatial moving averages, and standardized morbidity ratios. Results: There were a total of 4,376 HA due to CD resulting in death in Brazil, with a hospital case fatality rate of 0.11/100,000 inhabitants. The Southeast region had the highest rate (63.9%, n = 2,796; 0.17/100,000 inhabitants). The general trend for this indicator in Brazil is upwards (average annual percentage change [AAPC] 7.5; 95% confidence interval [CI] 5.3 to 9.9), with increases in the North, Northeast and Southeast regions. During the same period 122,275 deaths from CD were registered in DC, with a mortality rate of 3.14/100,000 inhabitants. The highest risk of CD-related death was found among men (relative risk [RR] 1.27) and Afro-Brazilians (RR 1.63). There was a downward trend in CD mortality in the country (AAPC − 0.7%, 95%CI -0.9 to -0.5), with an increase in the Northeast region (AAPC 1.1%, 95%CI 0.6 to 1.6). Municipalities with a very high Brazilian Deprivation Index tended to show an increase in mortality (AAPC 2.1%, 95%CI 1.6 to 2.7), while the others showed a decrease. Conclusion: Hospital case fatality and mortality due to CD are a relevant public health problem in Brazil. Differences related to gender, ethnicity, and social vulnerability reinforce the need for comprehensive care, and to ensure equity in access to health in the country. Municipalities, states, and regions with indicators that reveal higher morbidity and mortality need to be prioritized. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: In developing countries, the death probability of a child and mother is more significant than in developed countries; these inequalities in health outcomes are unfair. The present study encompasses a spatial analysis of maternal and child mortalities in Pakistan. The study aims to estimate the District Mortality Index (DMI), measure the inequality ratio and slope, and ascertain the spatial impact of numerous factors on DMI scores across Pakistani districts. Method: This study used micro-level household datasets from multiple indicator cluster surveys (MICS) to estimate the DMI. To find out how different the DMI scores were, the inequality ratio and slope were used. This study further utilized spatial autocorrelation tests to determine the magnitude and location of the spatial dependence of the clusters with high and low mortality rates. The Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) model was also applied to examine the spatial impact of socioeconomic, environmental, health, and housing attributes on DMI. Results: The inequality ratio for DMI showed that the upper decile districts are 16 times more prone to mortalities than districts in the lower decile, and the districts of Baluchistan depicted extreme spatial heterogeneity in terms of DMI. The findings of the Local Indicator of Spatial Association (LISA) and Moran's test confirmed spatial homogeneity in all mortalities among the districts in Pakistan. The H–H clusters of maternal mortality and DMI were in Baluchistan, and the H–H clusters of child mortality were seen in Punjab. The results of GWR showed that the wealth index quintile has a significant spatial impact on DMI; however, improved sanitation, handwashing practices, and antenatal care adversely influenced DMI scores. Conclusion: The findings reveal a significant disparity in DMI and spatial relationships among all mortalities in Pakistan's districts. Additionally, socioeconomic, environmental, health, and housing variables have an impact on DMI. Notably, spatial proximity among individuals who are at risk of death occurs in areas with elevated mortality rates. Policymakers may mitigate these mortalities by focusing on vulnerable zones and implementing measures such as raising public awareness, enhancing healthcare services, and improving access to clean drinking water and sanitation facilities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Tuberculous meningitis (TBM) emerges as a grave complication of tuberculosis in people living with HIV (PLWH). The diagnosis and treatment of TBM pose significant challenges, leading to elevated mortality rates. To comprehensively grasp the epidemiological landscape of TBM in PLWH, a systematic review and meta-analysis were meticulously undertaken. Methods: We performed a comprehensive search in PubMed, Embase, and Web of Science from database inception to September 19th, 2023, with no limitations on the publication type. The search terms were HIV/AIDS terms (AIDS OR HIV OR PLWH) and TBM-related terms (tuberculous meningitis OR TBM). Studies included in this meta-analysis evaluated the incidence of TBM among PLWH, or we were able to calculate the incidence of TBM among PLWH from the research. Results: The analysis revealed that the prevalence of TBM among PLWH was 13.6% (95% CI: 6.6–25.9%), with an incidence rate of 1.5 cases per 1000 persons per year. The case fatality rate was found to be 38.1% (95% CI: 24.3–54.1%). No significant publication bias was observed. Meta-regression analysis identified the proportion of females and finance situation as factors influencing the outcomes. Conclusions: Our study highlights TBM as a prevalent opportunistic infection that targets the central nervous system in PLWH. The elevated case fatality rate is especially prominent among PLWH in impoverished regions, underscores the pressing necessity for enhanced management strategies for PLWH suffering from TBM. Trial registration: PROSPERO; No: CRD42022338586. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: A nanny state imposes restrictions on people's liberty and freedom of action in order to advance their interest and welfare. The extent to which this is desirable, or even ethically acceptable, is debated in the literature. This paper formulates and tests the following hypothesis: the more of a nanny a state has been in the past, the more likely it is that the incumbent government will respond to a new, unknown threat with interventions of a paternalist nature, irrespective of other factors that might contribute to shaping government's response. This hypothesis is then taken to the data using the first wave of COVID-19 as an empirical test. Methods: Data are collected from secondary sources for a sample of 99 countries. Nanny statism is measured by the number of paternalist laws and regulations adopted by a country in the past. The response to COVID is proxied by the time of adoption of control and containment measures and their stringency. The public health outcome is measured by the COVID-19 death toll at the end of June 2020. These variables, plus several controls, are then used to estimate a set of linear and probit regressions and a proportional hazard model of the timing of adoption of control and containment measures. Results: An increase in nanny statism by 0.1 (on a scale from 0 to 10) on average increases the probability of adoption of control and containment measures by 0.077 (i.e. 7.7 percentage points). The central tenement of the hypothesis is therefore consistent with the empirical evidence. The linear and probit regressions also show that there is no evidence of a significant effect of nanny statism on the stringency of the measures adopted. Irrespective of stringency, however, early adoption of control and containment measures is found to reduce the death toll of COVID-19 in the first half of 2020: an increase in nanny statism by 0.1 reduces the COVID death toll by approximately 7%. Conclusions: A tradition of nanny statism potentially leads to a more timely and effective public policy response to a new, unknown crisis. Further tests of the hypothesis should look at the relationship between nanny statism and public health outcomes from natural disasters. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: To study the historical global incidence and mortality trends of gastric cancer and predicted mortality of gastric cancer by 2035. Methods: Incidence data were retrieved from the Cancer Incidence in Five Continents (CI5) volumes I-XI, and mortality data were obtained from the latest update of the World Health Organization (WHO) mortality database. We used join-point regression analysis to examine historical incidence and mortality trends and used the package NORDPRED in R to predict the number of deaths and mortality rates by 2035 by country and sex. Results: More than 1,089,000 new cases of gastric cancer and 769,000 related deaths were reported in 2020. The average annual percent change (AAPC) in the incidence of gastric cancer from 2003 to 2012 among the male population, South Korea, Japan, Malta, Canada, Cyprus, and Switzerland showed an increasing trend (P > 0.05); among the female population, Canada [AAPC, 1.2; (95%Cl, 0.5–2), P < 0.05] showed an increasing trend; and South Korea, Ecuador, Thailand, and Cyprus showed an increasing trend (P > 0.05). AAPC in the mortality of gastric cancer from 2006 to 2015 among the male population, Thailand [3.5 (95%cl, 1.6–5.4), P < 0.05] showed an increasing trend; Malta Island, New Zealand, Turkey, Switzerland, and Cyprus had an increasing trend (P > 0.05); among the male population aged 20–44, Thailand [AAPC, 3.4; (95%cl, 1.3–5.4), P < 0.05] showed an increasing trend; Norway, New Zealand, The Netherlands, Slovakia, France, Colombia, Lithuania, and the USA showed an increasing trend (P > 0.05). It is predicted that the mortality rate in Slovenia and France's female population will show an increasing trend by 2035. It is predicted that the absolute number of deaths in the Israeli male population and in Chile, France, and Canada female population will increase by 2035. Conclusion: In the past decade, the incidence and mortality of gastric cancer have shown a decreasing trend; however, there are still some countries showing an increasing trend, especially among populations younger than 45 years. Although mortality in most countries is predicted to decline by 2035, the absolute number of deaths due to gastric cancer may further increase due to population growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Background This study examines global trends in acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS) incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) from 1990 to 2019, focusing on regional disparities in AIDS incidence, mortality, and DALYs across various levels of socio-demographic index (SDI). It also investigates variations in AIDS incidence, mortality, and DALYs across different age groups, and projects specific trends for the next 25 years. Methods Comprehensive data on AIDS from 1990 to 2019 in 204 countries and territories was obtained from a GBD study. This included information on AIDS incidence, mortality, DALYs, and age-standardized rates (ASRs). Projections for AIDS incidence and mortality over the next 25 years were generated using the Bayesian age-period-cohort model. Results From 1990 to 2019, the global incidence of HIV cases increased from 1,989,282 to 2,057,710, while the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) decreased from 37.59 to 25.24 with an estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) of -2.38. The ASIR exhibited an upward trend in high SDI and high-middle SDI regions, a stable trend in middle SDI regions, and a downward trend in low-middle SDI and low SDI regions. In regions with higher SDI, the ASIR was higher in males than in females, while the opposite was observed in lower SDI regions. Throughout 1990 to 2019, the age-standardized death rate (ASDR) and age-standardized DALY rate remained stable, with EAPCs of 0.24 and 0.08 respectively. Countries with the highest HIV burden affecting women and children under five years of age are primarily situated in lower SDI regions, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa. Projections indicate a significant continued decline in the age-standardized incidence and mortality rates of AIDS over the next 25 years, for both overall and by gender. Conclusions The global ASIR decreased from 1990 to 2019. Higher incidence and death rates were observed in the lower SDI region, indicating a greater susceptibility to AIDS among women and

Background: Owing to the introduction of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART), the trajectory of mortality and morbidity associated with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection has significantly decreased in developed countries. However, this remains a formidable public health challenge for people living with HIV in resource-poor settings. This study was undertaken to determine the pooled person-time incidence rate of mortality, analyze the trend, and identify predictors of survival among HIV-infected adults receiving HAART. Methods: Quantitative studies were searched in PubMed, Embase, Scopus, Google Scholar, African Journals Online, and Web of Science. The Joana Briggs Institute critical appraisal tool was used to assess the quality of the included articles. The data were analyzed using the random-effects Dersimonian-Laird model. Results: Data abstracted from 35 articles involving 39,988 subjects were analyzed. The pooled person-time incidence rate of mortality (all-cause) was 4.25 ([95% uncertainty interval (UI), 3.65 to 4.85]) per 100 person-years of observations. Predictors of mortality were patients aged ≥ 45 years (hazard ratio (HR), 1.70 [95% UI,1.10 to 2.63]), being female (HR, 0.82 [95% UI, 0.70 to 0.96]), history of substance use (HR, 3.10 [95% UI, 1.31 to 7.32]), HIV positive status non disclosure (HR, 3.10 [95% UI,1.31 to 7.32]), cluster of differentiation 4 + T cell - count < 200 cells/mm3 (HR, 3.23 [95% UI, [2.29 to 4.75]), anemia (HR, 2.63 [95% UI, 1.32 to 5.22]), World Health Organisation classified HIV clinical stages III and IV (HR, 3.02 [95% UI, 2.29 to 3.99]), undernutrition (HR, 2.24 [95% UI, 1.61 to 3.12]), opportunistic infections (HR, 1.89 [95% UI, 1.23 to 2.91]), tuberculosis coinfection (HR, 3.34 [95% UI, 2.33 to 4.81]),bedridden or ambulatory (HR,3.30 [95% UI, 2.29 to 4.75]), poor treatment adherence (HR, 3.37 [95% UI,1.83 to 6.22]), and antiretroviral drug toxicity (HR, 2.60 [95% UI, 1.82 to 3.71]). Conclusion: Despite the early introduction of HAART in Ethiopia, since 2003, the mortality rate has remained high. Therefore, guideline-directed intervention of identified risk factors should be in place to improve overall prognosis and increase quality-adjusted life years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Although the COVID-19 pandemic claimed a great deal of lives, it is still unclear how it affected mortality in low- and lower-middle-income countries (LLMICs). This review summarized the available literature on excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic in LLMICs, including methods, sources of data, and potential contributing factors that might have influenced excess mortality. Methods: We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis on excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic in LLMICs in line with the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis (PRISMA) 2020 guidelines We searched PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, Cochrane Library, Google Scholar, and Scopus. We included studies published from 2019 onwards with a non-COVID-19 period of at least one year as a comparator. The meta-analysis included studies reporting data on population size, as well as observed and expected deaths. We used the Mantel–Haenszel method to estimate the pooled risk ratio with 95% confidence intervals. The protocol was registered in PROSPERO (ID: CRD42022378267). Results: The review covered 29 countries, with 10 countries included in the meta-analysis. The pooled meta-analysis included 1,405,128,717 individuals, for which 2,152,474 deaths were expected, and 3,555,880 deaths were reported. Calculated excess mortality was 100.3 deaths per 100,000 population per year, with an excess risk of death of 1.65 (95% CI: 1.649, 1.655, p < 0.001). The data sources used in the studies included civil registration systems, surveys, public cemeteries, funeral counts, obituary notifications, burial site imaging, and demographic surveillance systems. The primary techniques used to estimate excess mortality were statistical forecast modelling and geospatial analysis. One out of the 24 studies found higher excess mortality in urban settings. Conclusion: Our findings demonstrate that excess mortality in LLMICs during the pandemic was substantial. However, estimates of excess mortality are uncertain due to relatively poor data. Understanding the drivers of excess mortality, will require more research using various techniques and data sources. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The United Nations' Millennium Development Goals and Sustainable Development Goals both underscore the critical need to reduce the under-five mortality rate globally. China has made remarkable progress in decreasing the mortality rate of children under five. This study aims to examine the trends in child mortality rates from 2002 to 2022 and the causes of deaths among neonates, infants, and children under 5 years of age from 2013 to 2022 in Huangshi. Methods: The data resource was supported and provided by the Huangshi Health Commission, Huangshi Maternal and Child Health Hospital, and the Huangshi Statistics Bureau. Figures were drawn using Origin 2021. Results: The mortality rate among children under 5 years old significantly decreased, from 21.38 per 1,000 live births in 2002 to 3.53 per 1,000 live births in 2022. The infant mortality rate also saw a significant decline, to 15.06 per 1,000 live births. Among the 1,929 recorded child deaths from 2013 to 2022, the top three causes were: F2 (Disorders related to short gestation and low birth weight), accounting for 17.26% (333 deaths); I1 (Accidental drowning and submersion), for 14.83% (286 deaths); and I3 (Other accidental threats to breathing), for 12.29% (237 deaths). Of the 1,929 deaths, 1,117 were male children, representing 57.91%. The gender disparity in the Under-5 Mortality Rate (U5MR) was calculated to be 1.38 (boys to girls). The leading causes of death under the age of five shifted from F2 (Disorders related to short gestation and low birth weight) to I1 (Accidental drowning and submersion) as children aged, highlighting the need for policymakers and parents to intensify care and vigilance for children. Conclusions: Huangshi has achieved significant progress in lowering child mortality rates over the past two decades. The study calls for policymakers to enact more effective measures to further reduce the mortality rate among children under 5 years of age in Huangshi. Furthermore, it advises parents to dedicate more time and effort to supervising and nurturing their children, promoting a safer and healthier development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: This study aimed to analyze the trends and burden of occupational exposure to asbestos in the United States (U.S.) from 1990 to 2019, focusing on mortality rates, geographic distribution, age and sex patterns, and causes of death. Methods: Data on the number of deaths attributable to occupational exposure to asbestos were collected from 1990 to 2019 in the U.S. Joinpoint analysis was conducted to assess trends over time, and regression models were applied to calculate annual percentage changes (APC) and annual average percentage changes (AAPC). Geographic distribution was examined using mapping techniques. Age and sex patterns were analyzed, and causes of death were identified based on available data. Results: From 1990 to 2019, the overall number of deaths due to occupational exposure to asbestos in the U.S. increased by 20.2%. However, age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) and age-standardized disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rates (ASDR) exhibited a decline over the same period. Geographic analysis revealed differences in the number of deaths across states in 2019, with California reporting the highest number of fatalities. Age-specific mortality and DALYs showed an increase with age, peaking in older age groups. Tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer were the leading causes of death attributed to asbestos exposure, with increasing trends observed over the past five years. Conclusion: The study highlights significant trends and burden in occupational exposure to asbestos in the U.S., including overall increases in mortality rates, declining ASMR and ASDR, geographic disparities, age and sex patterns, and shifts in causes of death. These findings underscore the importance of continued monitoring and preventive measures to mitigate the burden of asbestos-related diseases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Mortality estimates at the subnational level are of urgent need in India for the formulation of policies and programmes at the district level. This is the first-ever study which used survey data for the estimation of life expectancy at birth () for the 640 districts from NFHS-4 (2015-16) and 707 districts from NFHS-5 (2019-21) for the total, male and female population in India. Methods: This study calculated annual age-specific mortality rates from NFHS-4 and NFHS-5 for India and all 36 states for the total, male and female population. This paper constructed the abridged life tables and estimated life expectancy at birth and further estimated the model parameters for all 36 states. This study linked state-specific parameters to the respective districts for the estimation of life expectancy at birth for 640 districts from NFHS-4 and 707 districts from NFHS-5 for the total, male and female population in India. Results: Findings at the state level showed that there were similarities between the estimated and calculated in most of the states. The results of this article observed that the highest varies in the ranges of 70 to 90 years among the districts of the southern region. falls below 70 years among most of the central and eastern region districts. In the northern region districts lies in the range of 70 years to 75 years. The estimates of life expectancy at birth shows the noticeable variations at the state and district levels for the person, male, and female populations from the NFHS (2015-16) and NFHS (2019-21). In the absence of age-specific mortality data at the district level in India, this study used the indirect estimation method of relating state-specific model parameters with the IMR of their respective districts and estimated across the 640 districts from NFHS-4 (2015-16) and 707 districts from NFHS-5 (2019-21). The findings of this study have similarities with the state-level estimations of from both data sources of SRS and NFHS and found the highest in the southern region and the lowest in the eastern and central region districts. Conclusions: In the lack of estimates at the district level in India, this study could be beneficial in providing timely life expectancy estimates from the survey data. The findings clearly shows variations in the district level . The districts from the southern region show the highest and districts from the central and eastern region has lower . Females have higher as compared to the male population in most of the districts in India. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Lithuania, a Baltic country in the European Union, can be characterized by high alcohol consumption and attributable burden. The aim of this contribution is to estimate the mortality burden due to alcohol use for the past two decades based on different relative risk functions, identify trends, and analyse the associations of alcohol-attributable burden with alcohol control policies and life expectancy. Methods: The standard methodology used by the World Health Organization for estimating alcohol-attributable mortality was employed to generate mortality rates for alcohol-attributable mortality, standardized for Lithuania's 2021 population distribution. Joinpoint analysis, T-tests, correlations, and regression analyses including meta-regressions were used to describe trends and associations. Results: Age-standardized alcohol-attributable mortality was high in Lithuania during the two decades between 2001 and 2021, irrespective of which relative risks were used for the estimates. Overall, there was a downward trend, mainly in males, which was associated with four years of intensive implementation of alcohol control policies in 2008, 2009, 2017, and 2018. For the remaining years, the rates of alcohol-attributable mortality were stagnant. Among males, the correlations between alcohol-attributable mortality and life expectancy were 0.90 and 0.76 for Russian and global relative risks respectively, and regression analyses indicated a significant association between changes in alcohol-attributable mortality and life expectancy, after controlling for gross domestic product. Conclusions: Male mortality and life expectancy in Lithuania were closely linked to alcohol-attributable mortality and markedly associated with strong alcohol control policies. Further implementation of such policies is predicted to lead to further improvements in life expectancy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Population mortality is an important metric that sums information from different public health risk factors into a single indicator of health. However, the impact of COVID-19 on population mortality in low-income and crisis-affected countries like Sudan remains difficult to measure. Using a community-led approach, we estimated excess mortality during the COVID-19 epidemic in two Sudanese communities. Methods: Three sets of key informants in two study locations, identified by community-based research teams, were administered a standardised questionnaire to list all known decedents from January 2017 to February 2021. Based on key variables, we linked the records before analysing the data using a capture-recapture statistical technique that models the overlap among lists to estimate the true number of deaths. Results: We estimated that deaths per day were 5.5 times higher between March 2020 and February 2021 compared to the pre-pandemic period in East Gezira, while in El Obeid City, the rate was 1.6 times higher. Conclusion: This study suggests that using a community-led capture-recapture methodology to measure excess mortality is a feasible approach in Sudan and similar settings. Deploying similar community-led estimation methodologies should be considered wherever crises and weak health infrastructure prevent an accurate and timely real-time understanding of epidemics' mortality impact in real-time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Widespread transmission of COVID-19 continues to threaten public health, particularly of rural, American Indian communities. Although COVID-19 risk factors for severe disease and clinical characteristics are well described in the general population, there has been little shared on hospitalized American Indian populations. Methods: In this observational study, we performed chart extractions on all persons hospitalized with COVID-19 from April 1 through July 31, 2020 among an exclusively American Indian population living on or near Tribal lands in eastern Arizona. We provide descriptive statistics for the cohort stratified by presentation, comparing those who self-presented or were referred by an outreach program. Exploratory analyses were performed to identify risk factors for morbidity and mortality. Results: During the observation period, 2262 persons were diagnosed with COVID-19 and 490 (22%) were hospitalized. Hospitalized persons had a median age of 54 years; 92% had at least one comorbidity, 72% had greater than one comorbidity, and 60% had a BMI of > 30. Most persons required supplemental oxygen (83%), but the majority (62%) only required nasal cannula and only 11% were intubated. The case fatality rates were 1.7% for the population, 7.1% among hospitalizations, and 9.3% among hospitalized patients 50 years and older. All rates that are significantly lower than those reported nationally during the same period. Conclusions: We observed a cohort of American Indian patients hospitalized secondary to COVID-19 with greater number of comorbidities compared to the general population but with lower mortality rates. We posit that the primary driver of mortality reduction for this population and the hospitalized cohort was a community-based referral program that led to disproportionately lower fatality rates among the oldest persons. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Studies had suggested increased risk of death of residents was associated with typhoons, particularly coastal regions. However, these findings ignored the impact of inland typhoons on the health of residents, especially the indirect death risk caused by typhoons. This study aimed to investigate the acute death risk of residents during inland typhoon Lekima in Jinan, further identify vulnerable populations and areas. Methods: We selected the daily death from 11 to 27th August 2019 in Jinan as case period, and conducted a time-stratified case-crossover design to match the contemporaneous data from 2016 to 2018 as control period. We used the generalized linear Poisson models to estimate the related effects of death risk during typhoon Lekima and lag days. Results: During the Lekima typhoon month, there were 3,366 deaths occurred in Jinan. Compared to unexposed periods, the acute death risk of non-accidental diseases (especially circulatory diseases), female and the older adults increased significantly in the second week after the typhoon. The maximum significant effect of circulatory disease deaths, female and older adult deaths were appeared on lag9, lag9, and lag13 respectively. And the typhoon-associated RR were 1.19 (95%CI:1.05,1.34), 1.28 (95%CI:1.08,1.52), and 1.22 (95%CI:1.06,1.42) respectively. The acute death risk of residents living in TQ and CQ increased significantly on Lag2 and Lag6 after the typhoon, respectively, while those living in LX, LC, HY, JY, and SH occurred from Lag 8 to Lag 13 after the typhoon. LC lasted the longest days. Conclusions: Typhoons would increase the vulnerability of residents living in Jinan which mainly occurred from the seventh day after the typhoon. Residents suffering from non-accidental diseases (circulatory diseases), female and the older adults were more vulnerable. The vulnerability of TQ and CQ occurred on Lag2 and Lag6 after typhoon Lekima, respectively, and the other areas except ZQ and PY occurred from Lag 8 to Lag 13. LC lasted the longest duration. Our findings emphasized the importance of the emergency response, which would help policymakers to identify vulnerable regions and populations accurately during typhoons and formulate the emergency response plan. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Understanding the trends of tuberculosis (TB) burden and its risk factors at the provincial level in the context of global End TB targets is crucial to identify the progress and challenges in TB control. We aimed to estimate the burden of TB and risk factors for death from 2006 to 2020 for the first time in Guizhou Province, China. Methods: Data were collected from the national TB surveillance system. Four indicators of TB burden and their corresponding age-standardized rates (ASRs), including incidence (ASIR), prevalence (ASPR), mortality (ASMR) and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) (ASDR), were estimated and stratified by year, age, gender and prefecture. Temporal trends of ASRs were presented by locally weighted regression, and the annual percentage change was calculated. The correlation between gross domestic product (GDP) per capita and ASRs was evaluated by Pearson correlation analysis. The associated risk factors for death in PTB patients were determined using logistic regression models. Results: A total of 557,476 pulmonary TB (PTB) cases and 11,234 deaths were reported, including 2233 (19.9%) TB specific deaths and 9001 (80.1%) deaths from other causes. The 15-year average incidence, prevalence and mortality rates were 94.6, 102.6 and 2.1 per 100,000 population, respectively. The average DALY rate was 0.60 per 1000 population. The ASIR and ASPR have shown downward trends since 2012, with the largest percentage decrease in 2020 (ASIR: -29.8%; ASPR: -30.5%). The number in TB specific deaths consistently decreased during the study period (P<0.001), while the increase in deaths from other causes drove the overall upward trend in ASMR and ASDR. Four ASRs remained high in males and 5 prefectures. GDP per capita was negatively associated with the ASIR, ASPR and ASDR (P<0.05). Among PTB patients, men, patients with no fixed job, those with a low GDP level, patients with increasing age, those previously treated, those with severe symptoms, those transferred in and those receiving directly observed treatment were more likely to suffer death. Conclusion: Guizhou has made progress in reducing PTB cases and TB specific deaths over the last 15 years. Targeted interventions are needed to address these risk factors for death in PTB patients and high-risk areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Environmental stress represents an important burden on health and leads to a considerable number of diseases, hospitalisations, and excess mortality. Our study encompasses a representative sample size drawn from the Belgian population in 2016 (n = 11.26 million, with a focus on n = 11.15 million individuals). The analysis is conducted at the geographical level of statistical sectors, comprising a total of n = 19,794 sectors, with a subset of n = 18,681 sectors considered in the investigation. We integrated multiple parameters at the finest spatial level and constructed three categories of environmental stress through clustering: air pollution, noise stress and stress related to specific land-use types. We observed identifiable patterns in the spatial distribution of stressors within each cluster category. We assessed the relationship between age-standardized all-cause mortality rates (ASMR) and environmental stressors. Our research found that especially very high air pollution values in areas where traffic is the dominant local component of air pollution (ASMR + 14,8%, 95% CI: 10,4 – 19,4%) and presence of industrial land (ASMR + 14,7%, 95% CI: 9,4 – 20,2%) in the neighbourhood are associated with an increased ASMR. Cumulative exposure to multiple sources of unfavourable environmental stress (simultaneously high air pollution, high noise, presence of industrial land or proximity of primary/secondary roads and lack of green space) is associated with an increase in ASMR (ASMR + 26,9%, 95% CI: 17,1 – 36,5%). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The quality of the statistics on causes of death (CoD) does not present consolidated indicators in literature further than the coding group of ill-defined conditions of the International Classification of Diseases. Our objective was to assess the territorial quality of CoD by reliability of the official mortality statistics in Spain over the years 1980–2019. Methods: A descriptive epidemiological design of four decades (1980-, 1990-, 2000-, and 2010–2019) by region (18) and sex was implemented. The CoD cases, age-adjusted rates and ratios (to all-cause) were assigned by reliability to unspecific and ill-defined quality categories. The regional mortality rates were contrasted to the Spanish median by decade and sex by the Comparative Mortality Ratio (CMR) in a Bayesian perspective. Statistical significance was considered when the CMR did not contain the value 1 in the 95% credible intervals. Results: Unspecific, ill-defined, and all-cause rates by region and sex decreased over 1980–2019, although they scored higher in men than in women. The ratio of ill-defined CoD decreased in both sexes over these decades, but was still prominent in 4 regions. CMR of ill-defined CoD in both sexes exceeded the Spanish median in 3 regions in all decades. In the last decade, women's CMR significantly exceeded in 5 regions for ill-defined and in 6 regions for unspecific CoD, while men's CMR exceeded in 4 and 2 of the 18 regions, respectively on quality categories. Conclusions: The quality of mortality statistics of causes of death has increased over the 40 years in Spain in both sexes. Quality gaps still remain mostly in Southern regions. Authorities involved might consider to take action and upgrading regional and national death statistics, and developing a systematic medical post-grade training on death certification. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Causes of death other than COVID-19 seem to contribute significantly to the excess mortality observed during the 2020–2022 pandemic. In this study, we explore changes in non-COVID-19 causes of death in Norway during the COVID-19 pandemic from March 2020 to December 2022. Methods: We performed a population-based cross-sectional study on data from the Norwegian Cause of Death Registry. All recorded deaths from 1st January 2010 to 31st December 2022 were included. The main outcome measures were the number of deaths and age-standardised death rate (ASMR) per 100000 population from the major cause of death groups in 2020, 2021 and 2022. The predicted number of deaths and ASMRs were forecasted with a 95% prediction interval constructed from a general linear regression model based on the corresponding number of deaths and rates from the preceding ten prepandemic years (2010–2019). We also examined whether there were deviations from expected seasonality in the pandemic period based on prepandemic monthly data from 2010–2019. The cumulative number of deaths and ASMR were estimated based on monthly mortality data. Results: There was significant excess mortality (number of deaths) in 2021 and 2022 for all causes (3.7% and 14.5%), for cardiovascular diseases (14.3% and 22.0%), and for malignant tumours in 2022 (3.5%). In terms of ASMR, there was excess mortality in 2021 and 2022 for all causes (2.9% and 13.7%), and for cardiovascular diseases (16.0% and 25,8%). ASMR was higher than predicted in 2022 for malignant tumours (2.3%). There were fewer deaths than predicted from respiratory diseases (except COVID-19) in 2020 and 2021, and from dementia in 2021 and 2022. From March 2020 to December 2022, there were cumulatively 3754 (ASMR 83.8) more non-COVID-19 deaths than predicted, of which 3453 (ASMR: 79.6) were excess deaths from cardiovascular disease, 509 (ASMR 4.0) from malignant tumours. Mortality was lower than predicted for respiratory diseases (-1889 (ASMR: -44.3)), and dementia (-530 (ASMR -18.5)). Conclusions: There was considerable excess non-COVID-19 mortality in Norway from March 2020 until December 2022, mainly due to excess cardiovascular deaths. For respiratory diseases and dementia, mortality was lower than predicted. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Primary brain and central nervous system cancer (collectively called CNS cancers) cause a significant burden to society. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the trends in the burden of CNS cancers from 1990 to 2019 and to predict the incidence and mortality rates and the corresponding numbers for the next 25 years to help countries to understand the trends in its incidence and mortality, and to make better adjustments or formulation of policies and allocation of resources thereby reducing the burden of the disease. Methods: The 2019 Global Burden of Disease Study provided incidence rates, death rates, and disability-adjusted life year (DALY) data in Asia from 1990 to 2019. To reflect the trends in the age-standardized incidence, mortality, and DALY rates, the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) was determined. The Bayesian age-period cohort (BAPC) model was employed to predict the burden of CNS cancers in the next 25 years. Results: The incidence, death, and DALY rates of CNS cancers all increased from 1990 to 2019. The age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) for CNS cancers increased from 9.89/100,000 in 1990 to 12.14/100,000 in 2019, with an EAPC of 0.69 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.65, 0.73). The ASDR and the age-standardized DALY rate both decreased, with EAPCs of − 0.08 and − 0.52, respectively. Before 2005, the age-standardized DALY rate in East Asia was much greater in females than in males, while in Central Asia, the age-standardized death and DALY rates in males both increased sharply after 2000. In contrast to 1990, the caseload increased for the 55–70 years age group. The number of deaths decreased sharply among individuals aged younger than 20 years, especially in East Asia, accounting for only 5.41% of all deaths. The age group with the highest mortality rate was > 60 years, especially in Japan. The ASIR will continue to increase in Asia from 2020 to 2044, and the ASDR will gradually diminish. The incidence and number of deaths from CNS cancers in Asia are expected to increase over the next 25 years, especially among females. Conclusions: The study identified an increasing trend in morbidity, mortality and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), with differences in age-standardized morbidity rates for different population groups. In addition, it is noteworthy that the burden of disease (as measured by disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs)) is higher among women in Central Asia compared with other regions. ASIR will continue to increase over the next 25 years, with the increase in female cases and mortality expected to be more pronounced. This may need to be further substantiated by additional research, on the basis of which health authorities and policymakers can better utilize limited resources and develop appropriate policies and preventive measures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) is a global health concern with varying levels and trends across countries and regions. Understanding these differences is crucial for effective prevention and treatment strategies. Methods: Using data from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease study, we examine IBD incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rates in 198 countries from 1990 to 2019. To assess changes in the burden of IBD, estimated annual percentage changes (EAPC) were calculated, and a Bayesian age-period-cohort model was used to predict the future 30-year trends of IBD. Results: In 2019, there were 405,000 new IBD cases globally (95% uncertainty interval (UI) 361,000 to 457,000), with 41,000 deaths (95% UI 35,000 to 45,000) and 1.62million DALYs (95% UI 1.36–1.92million). The global age-standardized incidence rate in 2019 was 4.97 per 100,000 person-years (95% UI 4.43 to 5.59), with a mortality rate of 0.54 (95% UI 0.46 to 0.59) and DALYs rate of 20.15 (95% UI 16.86 to 23.71). From 1990 to 2019, EAPC values for incidence, mortality, and DALYs rates were − 0.60 (95% UI − 0.73 to − 0.48), − 0.69 (95% UI − 0.81 to − 0.57), and − 1.04 (95% UI − 1.06 to − 1.01), respectively. Overall, the burden of IBD has shown a slow decline in recent years. In SDI stratification, regions with higher initial SDI (high-income North America and Central Europe) witnessed decreasing incidence and mortality rates with increasing SDI, while regions with lower initial SDI (South Asia, Oceania, and Latin America) experienced a rapid rise in incidence but a decrease in mortality with increasing SDI. Predictions using a Bayesian model showed lower new cases and deaths from 2020 to 2050 than reference values, while the slope of the predicted incidence-time curve closely paralleled that of the 2019 data. Conclusion: Increasing cases, deaths, and DALYs highlight the sustained burden of IBD on public health. Developed countries have stabilized or declining incidence rates but face high prevalence and societal burden. Emerging and developing countries experience rising incidence. Understanding these changes aids policymakers in effectively addressing IBD challenges in different regions and economic contexts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Ongoing high neonatal mortality rates (NMRs) represent a global challenge. In 2021, of the 5 million deaths reported worldwide for children under five years of age, 47% were newborns. Pakistan has one of the five highest national NMRs in the world, with an estimated 39 neonatal deaths per 1,000 live births. Reducing newborn deaths requires sustainable, evidence-based, and cost-effective interventions that can be integrated within existing community healthcare infrastructure across regions with high NMR. Methods: This pragmatic, community-based, parallel-arm, open-label, cluster randomized controlled trial aims to estimate the effect of Lady Health Workers (LHWs) providing an integrated newborn care kit (iNCK) with educational instructions to pregnant women in their third trimester, compared to the local standard of care in Gilgit-Baltistan, Pakistan, on neonatal mortality and other newborn and maternal health outcomes. The iNCK contains a clean birth kit, 4% chlorhexidine topical gel, sunflower oil emollient, a ThermoSpot™ temperature monitoring sticker, a fleece blanket, a click-to-heat reusable warmer, three 200 μg misoprostol tablets, and a pictorial instruction guide and diary. LHWs are also provided with a handheld scale to weigh the newborn. The primary study outcome is neonatal mortality, defined as a newborn death in the first 28 days of life. Discussion: This study will generate policy-relevant knowledge on the effectiveness of integrating evidence-based maternal and newborn interventions and delivering them directly to pregnant women via existing community health infrastructure, for reducing neonatal mortality and morbidity, in a remote, mountainous area with a high NMR. Trial registration: NCT04798833, March 15, 2021. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Population health is vital to a nation's overall well-being and development. To achieve sustainable human development, a reduction in health inequalities and an increase in interstate convergence in health indicators is necessary. Evaluation of the convergence patterns can aid the government in monitoring the health progress across the Indian states. This study investigates the progressive changes in the convergence and divergence patterns in health status across major states of India from 1990 to 2018. Methods: Sigma plots (σ), kernel density plots, and log t-test methods are used to test the convergence, divergence, and club convergence patterns in the health indicators at the state level. Results: The result of the sigma convergence suggests that life expectancy at birth has converged across all states. After 2006, however, the infant mortality rate, neonatal mortality rate, and total fertility rate experienced a divergence pattern. The study's findings indicate that life expectancy at birth converges in the same direction across all states, falling into the same club (Club One). However, considerable cross-state variations and evidence of clubs' convergence and divergence are observed in the domains of infant mortality rate, neonatal death rate, and total fertility rate. As suggested by the kernel density estimates, life expectancy at birth stratifies, polarizes, and becomes unimodal over time, although with a single stable state. A bimodal distribution was found for infant, neonatal, and total fertility rates. Conclusions: Therefore, healthcare strategies must consider each club's transition path while focusing on divergence states to reduce health variations and improve health outcomes for each group of individuals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Most COVID-19 vulnerability indices rely on measures that are biased by rates of exposure or are retrospective like mortality rates that offer little opportunity for intervention. The Moore-Hill Vulnerability Index (MHVI) is a precision public health early warning alternative to traditional infection fatality rates that presents avenues for mortality prevention. Methods: We produced an infection-severity vulnerability index by calculating the proportion of all recorded positive cases that were severe and attended by ambulances at small area scale for the East Midlands of the UK between May 2020 and April 2022. We produced maps identifying regions with high and low vulnerability, investigated the accuracy of the index over shorter and longer time periods, and explored the utility of the MHVI compared to other common proxy measures and indices. Analysis included exploring the correlation between our novel index and the Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD). Results: The MHVI captures geospatial dynamics that single metrics alone often overlook, including the compound health challenges associated with disadvantaged and declining coastal towns inhabited by communities with post-industrial health legacies. A moderate negative correlation between MHVI and IMD reflects spatial analysis which suggests that high vulnerability occurs in affluent rural as well as deprived coastal and urban communities. Further, the MHVI estimates of severity rates are comparable to infection fatality rates for COVID-19. Conclusions: The MHVI identifies regions with known high rates of poor health outcomes prior to the pandemic that case rates or mortality rates alone fail to identify. Pre-hospital early warning measures could be utilised to prevent mortality during a novel pandemic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: China has a high mortality from nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC). The NPC mortality trends in China from 2006 to 2020 were described and analyzed to understand its epidemiological characteristics by region and sex and to explore age, period, and cohort effects. Methods: This study utilized NPC mortality data from the China Health Statistical Yearbook. A joinpoint regression model was used to fit the standardized NPC mortality and age-specific mortality. The age-period-cohort model was applied to investigate age, period, and cohort effects on NPC mortality risk. Results: The results showed that the NPC mortality rate in China has been declining steadily. From 2006 to 2020, the standardized NPC mortality rate in most age groups showed a significant downward trend. The annual percentage change was smaller in rural areas than in urban areas. The mortality risks of rural males and rural females from 2016 to 2020 were 1.139 times and 1.080 times those from 2011 to 2015, respectively. Both urban males born in 1984–1988 and rural males born in 1979–1983 exhibited an increasing trend in NPC mortality risk. Conclusions: Our study confirmed the effectiveness of NPC prevention and treatment strategies in China from 2006 to 2020. However, it underscored the urgent need for targeted interventions in rural areas to further reduce NPC mortality rates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: In sub-Saharan Africa, more women than men access HIV testing and treatment and may have better viral load suppression (VLS). We utilized routinely reported aggregated HIV program data from 21 sub-Saharan African countries to examine sex differences in VLS and death rates within antiretroviral therapy (ART) programs supported by the United States President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR). Methods: We included VLS and reported death data for persons aged 15 + years on ART from October–December 2020 disaggregated by sex and age for each subnational unit (SNU). We used linear mixed-model regression to estimate VLS proportion and negative binomial mixed-model regression to estimate the rates of death and death plus interruptions in treatment (IIT). All models were weighted for SNU-level ART population size and adjusted for sex, age, HIV/tuberculosis coinfection, country, and SNU; models for reported deaths and deaths plus IIT were also adjusted for SNU-level VLS. Results: Mean VLS proportion was higher among women than men (93.0% vs. 92.0%, p-value < 0.0001) and 50 + than 15–49 age group (93.7% vs. 91.2%, p-value < 0.0001). The mean rate of reported deaths was higher among men than women (2.37 vs. 1.51 per 1000 persons, p-value < 0.0001) and 50 + than 15–49 age group (2.39 vs. 1.50 per 1000, p-value < 0.0001); the mean rate of reported deaths plus IIT was higher among men (30.1 in men vs. 26.0 in women per 1000, p-value < 0.0001) and higher among 15–49 than 50 + age group (34.7 vs. 22.6 per 1000, p-value < 0.0001). Conclusions: The mean rate of reported deaths was higher among men in most models despite adjusting for VLS. Further exploration into differences in care-seeking behaviors; coverage of screening, prophylaxis, and/or treatment of opportunistic infections; and more extensive testing options for men to include CD4 is recommended. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: There is a limited body of research specifically examining gender inequality in excess mortality and its variations across age groups and geographical locations during the COVID-19 pandemic. This study aims to fill this gap by analyzing the patterns of gender inequality in excess all-cause mortality in Thailand during the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods: Data pertaining to all-cause deaths and population between January 1, 2010, and December 31, 2021, were obtained from Thailand's Bureau of Registration Administration. A seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) technique was used to estimate excess mortality during the pandemic between January 2020 to December 2021. Gender differential excess mortality was measured as the difference in age-standardized mortality rates between men and women. Results: Our SARIMA-based estimate of all-cause mortality in Thailand during the COVID-19 pandemic amounted to 1,032,921 deaths, with COVID-19-related fatalities surpassing official figures by 1.64 times. The analysis revealed fluctuating patterns of excess and deficit in all-cause mortality rates across different phases of the pandemic, as well as among various age groups and regions. In 2020, the most pronounced gender disparity in excess all-cause mortality emerged in April, with 4.28 additional female deaths per 100,000, whereas in 2021, the peak gender gap transpired in August, with 7.52 more male deaths per 100,000. Individuals in the 80 + age group exhibited the largest gender gap for most of the observed period. Gender differences in excess mortality were uniform across regions and over the period observed. Bangkok showed the highest gender disparity during the peak of the fourth wave, with 24.18 more male deaths per 100,000. Conclusion: The findings indicate an overall presence of gender inequality in excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic in Thailand, observed across age groups and regions. These findings highlight the need for further attention to be paid to gender disparities in mortality and call for targeted interventions to address these disparities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Child mortality is a major challenge to public health in Pakistan and other developing countries. Reduction of the child mortality rate would improve public health and enhance human well-being and prosperity. This study recognizes the spatial clusters of child mortality across districts of Pakistan and identifies the direct and spatial spillover effects of determinants on the Child Mortality Rate (CMR). Method: Data of the multiple indicators cluster survey (MICS) conducted by the United Nations International Children's Emergency Fund (UNICEF) was used to study the CMR. We used spatial univariate autocorrelation to test the spatial dependence between contiguous districts concerning CMR. We also applied the Spatial Durbin Model (SDM) to measure the spatial spillover effects of factors on CMR. Results: The study results showed 31% significant spatial association across the districts and identified a cluster of hot spots characterized by the high-high CMR in the districts of Punjab province. The empirical analysis of the SDM confirmed that the direct and spatial spillover effect of the poorest wealth quintile and MPI vulnerability on CMR is positive whereas access to postnatal care to the newly born child and improved drinking water has negatively (directly and indirectly) determined the CMR in Pakistan. Conclusion: The instant results concluded that spatial dependence and significant spatial spillover effects concerning CMR exist across districts. Prioritization of the hot spot districts characterized by higher CMR can significantly reduce the CMR with improvement in financial statuses of households from the poorest quintile and MPI vulnerability as well as improvement in accessibility to postnatal care services and safe drinking water. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Mortality statistics about daily deaths might change on weekends due to delays in reporting, uneven staffing, a different mix of personnel, or decreased efficiency. We hypothesized that reported deaths for COVID-19 might increase on weekends compared to weekdays. Methods: We collected data from the World Health Organization COVID-19 database. All deaths from March 7, 2020 to March 7, 2022 were included (two years). The primary analysis evaluated mean daily deaths on weekends compared to the preceding five workdays. Analyses were replicated in ten individual countries: United States, United Kingdom, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Russia, India, Brazil, and Canada. Results: The mean COVID-19 daily deaths was higher on weekends compared to weekdays (8,532 vs. 8,083 p < 0.001), equal to a 6% relative increase (95% confidence interval 3% to 8%). The highest absolute increase was in the United States (1,483 vs. 1,220 deaths, p < 0.001). The second highest absolute increase was in Brazil (1,061 vs. 823 deaths, p < 0.001). The increase in deaths on weekends remained significant during the earlier and later months of the pandemic, as well as during the greater and lesser weeks of the pandemic. Conclusions: The apparent increased COVID-19 deaths reported on weekends might potentially reflect patient care, confound community trends, and affect the public perception of risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is a significant cause of premature mortality worldwide, with a growing burden in recent years. Despite this, there is a lack of comprehensive meta-analyses that quantify the extent of premature CVD mortality. Study addressed this gap by estimating the pooled age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) of premature CVD mortality. Methods: We conducted a systematic review of published CVD mortality studies that reported ASMR as an indicator for premature mortality measurement. All English articles published as of October 2022 were searched in four electronic databases: PubMed, Scopus, Web of Science (WoS), and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL). We computed pooled estimates of ASMR using random-effects meta-analysis. We assessed heterogeneity from the selected studies using the I2 statistic. Subgroup analyses and meta regression analysis was performed based on sex, main CVD types, income country level, study time and age group. The analysis was performed using R software with the "meta" and "metafor" packages. Results: A total of 15 studies met the inclusion criteria. The estimated global ASMR for premature mortality from total CVD was 96.04 per 100,000 people (95% CI: 67.18, 137.31). Subgroup analysis by specific CVD types revealed a higher ASMR for ischemic heart disease (ASMR = 15.57, 95% CI: 11.27, 21.5) compared to stroke (ASMR = 12.36, 95% CI: 8.09, 18.91). Sex-specific differences were also observed, with higher ASMRs for males (37.50, 95% CI: 23.69, 59.37) than females (15.75, 95% CI: 9.61, 25.81). Middle-income countries had a significantly higher ASMR (90.58, 95% CI: 56.40, 145.48) compared to high-income countries (21.42, 95% CI: 15.63, 29.37). Stratifying by age group indicated that the age groups of 20–64 years and 30–74 years had a higher ASMR than the age group of 0–74 years. Our multivariable meta-regression model suggested significant differences in the adjusted ASMR estimates for all covariates except study time. Conclusions: This meta-analysis synthesized a comprehensive estimate of the worldwide burden of premature CVD mortality. Our findings underscore the continued burden of premature CVD mortality, particularly in middle-income countries. Addressing this issue requires targeted interventions to mitigate the high risk of premature CVD mortality in these vulnerable populations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: To investigate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on life expectancy at birth (e0) for 51 Asian countries and territories from January 1, 2020 to December 31, 2021. Method: Based on age-sex-specific mortality used for estimating the changes in e0 for years 2019, 2020, and 2021 from the 2022 revision of the World Population Prospects, we employed Arriaga's discrete method to decompose changes in e0 into both absolute and relative contributions of changes in age-specific death rate, and further obtained the age-sex-specific contribution to changes in e0 by country/territory and period (i.e., 2019–2020 and 2020–2021) for Asia. Findings: The COVID-19 pandemic reduced 1.66 years in e0 of the Asian population from 2019 to 2021, slightly lower than the world average of 1.74 years. South Asia had a high loss of 3.01 years, whereas Eastern Asia had almost no changes. Oman, Lebanon, India, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Indonesia, and the Philippines experienced a high loss of above 2.5 years in e0. Despite significant national and territorial variations, the decline of e0 in Asia was mostly from the age group of 60–79 years, followed by age groups of 80 + and 45–59 years; and age groups of children contributed little (i.e., 0–4 and 5–14 years old). Males suffered more losses than females in this pandemic. Asian nations saw less loss in e0 in the second year of the pandemic, i.e., 2020–2021, than in the first year, i.e., 2019–2020, but this recovery trend was not observed in Southern Asia and South-Eastern Asia. Countries from Central Asia and Western Asia, such as Kazakhstan, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Lebanon, and Oman, had extraordinarily more losses in e0 in the first year at ages around 70. Conclusion: The COVID-19 pandemic had significantly affected e0 of Asian populations, and most contribution to the reduction of e0 came from the three older age groups, 60–79 years, 80 + years, and 45–59 years, with great variations across countries/territories. Our findings could have important implications for development of more resilient public health systems in Asian societies with better policy interventions for vulnerable demographic groups. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: We aimed to examine the lymphohematopoietic cancer mortality in a cohort of workers at a semiconductor manufacturing company in South Korea according to their jobs. Methods: A retrospective cohort was constructed using the personnel records of semiconductor manufacturing workers who were employed in a semiconductor company in South Korea in 1998–2012. Data on their vital status and causes of death were obtained from the National Statistical Office of South Korea. The standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) of lymphohematopoietic cancer were calculated. Results: A total of 288 deaths were reported, of which 22 were caused by lymphohematopoietic cancer, among 65,782 workers in 878,325 person-years. The SMRs for lymphohematopoietic cancer were 0.78 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.39–1.40; the number of observed cases [Obs] = 11) among male workers and 1.71 (95% CI = 0.85–3.06; Obs = 11) among female workers. Among female operators, excess deaths due to lymphohematopoietic cancer (SMR = 2.59, 95% CI = 1.24–4.76) and leukemia (SMR = 2.92, 95% CI = 1.26–5.76) were observed. However, they were not observed among office workers, facility managers, utility managers, or process managers. Conclusion: Female operators involved in the semiconductor wafer fabrication process had higher risk of mortality from lymphohematopoietic cancer. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Breast cancer is among the leading cause of cancer-related mortality among Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) women, but a comprehensive and updated analysis of mortality trends is lacking. The objective of this study was to determine the breast cancer mortality rates between 1997 and 2017 for LAC countries and predict mortality until 2030. Methods: We retrieved breast cancer deaths across 17 LAC countries from the World Health Organization mortality database. Age-standardized mortality rates per 100,000 women-years were estimated. Mortality trends were evaluated with Joinpoint regression analyses by country and age group (all ages, < 50 years, and ≥ 50 years). By 2030, we predict number of deaths, mortality rates, changes in population structure and size, and the risk of death from breast cancer. Results: Argentina, Uruguay, and Venezuela reported the highest mortality rates throughout the study period. Guatemala, El Salvador, and Nicaragua reported the largest increases (from 2.4 to 2.8% annually), whereas Argentina, Chile, and Uruguay reported downward trends (from − 1.0 to − 1.6% annually). In women < 50y, six countries presented downward trends and five countries showed increasing trends. In women ≥ 50y, three countries had decreased trends and ten showed increased trends. In 2030, increases in mortality are expected in the LAC region, mainly in Guatemala (+ 63.0%), Nicaragua (+ 47.3), El Salvador (+ 46.2%), Ecuador (+ 38.5%) and Venezuela (+ 29.9%). Conclusion: Our findings suggest considerable differences in breast cancer mortality across LAC countries by age group. To achieve the 2030 sustainable developmental goals, LAC countries should implement public health strategies to reduce mortality by breast cancer. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: We aim to explore the prevalence and temporal trends of the burden of kidney dysfunction (KD) in global, regional and national level, since a lack of related studies. Design: Cross-sectional study. Materials: The data of this research was obtained from Global Burden of Diseases Study 2019. The estimation of the prevalence, which was measured by the summary exposure value (SEV), and attributable burden of KD was performed by DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool. The Spearman rank order correlation method was adopted to perform correlation analysis. The temporal trends were represented by the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC). Results: In 2019, there were total 3.16 million deaths and 76.5 million disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) attributable to KD, increased by 101.1% and 81.7% compared with that in 1990, respectively. From 1990 to 2019, the prevalence of KD has increased in worldwide, but decreased in High-income Asia Pacific. Nearly 48.5% of countries globally, such as South Africa, Egypt and Mexico had increased mortality rates of KD from 1990 to 2019 while 44.6% for disability rate. Countries with lower socio-demographic index (SDI) are facing a higher prevalence as well as mortality and disability rate compared with those with higher SDI. Compared with females, the prevalence of KD was lower in males, however the attributable mortality and disability rate were higher in all years from 1990 to 2019. Conclusion: With the progress of senescent, we will face more severe challenges of reducing the prevalence and attributable burden of KD, especially in regions with lower SDI. Effective measures are urgently required to alleviate the prevalence and burden of KD. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Prostate cancer is the leading cause of cancer death in Ecuadorian men. However, there is a lack of information regarding the evolution of prostate cancer mortality rates in Ecuador and its regions in the last few decades. Objective: The aim of this study was to report prostate cancer mortality rates in Ecuador and its geographical areas and observe the evolution of these rates between 2004 and 2019. Methods: An observational ecological study was conducted, analysing data for prostate cancer deaths from 2004 to 2019 in Ecuador. Age standardized mortality rates (ASMR) were calculated per 100,000 men using the world standard population with the direct method proposed by SEGI. Joinpoint regression analysis was performed to examine mortality trends. We used a Cluster Map to explore relationships among regions between 2015 and 2019. Results: Ecuador reported 13,419 deaths by prostate cancer between 2004 and 2019, with the Coastal region accounting for 49.8% of the total deaths. The mean age at death was 79 years (± 10 years), 91.7% were elderly (more than 65 years old) and had primary education (53%). Deaths by prostate cancer were more frequently reported among mestizos (81.4%). There were no significant variations in these percentages in Ecuador and its regions during the study period. Carchi province had the highest mortality rate in 2005 and 2019 (> 13 deaths per 100,000). Heterogeneity in the evolution of mortality rates was reported among the provinces of Ecuador. Azuay decreased in the first few years, and then increased from 2010 to 2019, whereas Guayas and Pichincha decreased throughout the whole period. Conclusion: Although prostate cancer mortality rates in Ecuador have remained stable over the past few decades, there are significant disparities among the different regions. These findings suggest the need for the development of national and provincial registration measures, integrated healthcare actions, and targeted interventions to reduce the burden of prostate cancer in the Ecuadorian population. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: In this study, we estimated the trend of unintentional injury mortality among children aged under-five years in China during 2010–2020. Methods: Data were obtained from China's Under 5 Child Mortality Surveillance System (U5CMSS). The total unintentional injury mortality and all specific-causes unintentional injury mortality was calculated, annual numbers of deaths and live births were adjusted by a 3-year moving average under-reporting rate. The Poisson regression model and the Cochran-Mantel-Haenszel method were used to calculate the average annual decline rate (AADR) and the adjusted relative risk (aRR) of the unintentional injury mortality. Results: In 2010–2020, a total of 7,925 unintentional injury-related deaths were reported in U5CMSS, accounting for 18.7% of all reported deaths. The overall proportion of unintentional injury-related deaths to total under-five children deaths has increased from 15.2% to 2010 to 23.8% in 2020 (χ2 = 227.0, p < 0.001), the unintentional injury mortality significantly decreased from 249.3 deaths per 100,000 live births in 2010 to 178.8 deaths per 100,000 live births in 2020, with an AADR 3.7% (95%CI 3.1–4.4). The unintentional injury mortality rate decreased from 2010 to 2020 in both urban (from 68.1 to 59.7 per 100,000 live births) and rural (from 323.1 to 230.0 per 100,000 live births) areas (urban: χ2 = 3.1, p < 0.08; rural: χ2 = 113.5, p < 0.001). The annual rates of decline in rural areas and urban areas were 4.2% (95%CI 3.4–4.9) and 1.5% (95%CI 0.1–3.3), respectively. The leading causes of unintentional injury mortality were suffocation (2,611, 32.9%), drowning (2,398, 30.3%), and traffic injury (1,428, 12.8%) in 2010–2020. The cause-specific of unintentional injury mortality rates decreased with varying AADRs in 2010–2020, except for traffic injury. The composition of unintentional injury-related deaths also varied by age group. Suffocation was the leading cause in infants, drowning and traffic injury were the leading causes in children aged 1–4 years. Suffocation and poisoning has high incidence in October to March and drowning has high in June to August. Conclusion: The unintentional injury mortality rate of children aged under-five years decreased significantly from 2010 to 2020 in China, but great inequity exists in unintentional injury mortality in urban and rural areas. Unintentional injuries are still an important public health problem affecting the health of Chinese children. Effective strategies should be strengthened to reduce unintentional injury in children and these policies and programmes should be targeted to more specific populations, such as rural areas and males. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: This study presented the mortality trend of ischemic heart disease (IHD) in Chinese residents from 2010 to 2019 and provided a basis for further establishment of relevant interventions. Methods: Data, such as sex, age, urban and rural areas, and death status, were extracted from the China Death Surveillance Dataset from 2010 to 2019, with mortality and age-adjusted death rates (AADRs) as the main indicators. The joinpoint regression model was used to analyze mortality and AADRs trends in IHD. A semi-structured expert interview was conducted to propose targeted intervention measures and countermeasures. Results: We observed an overall upward trend in IHD mortality rates and AADRs in China from 2010 to 2019 (average annual percentage change [AAPC] = 5.14%, AAPCAADRs = 1.60%, P < 0.001). Mortality rates and AADRs increased for both males (AAPC = 4.91%, AAPCAADRs = 1.09%, P < 0.05) and females (AAPC = 5.57%, AAPCAADRs = 1.84%, P < 0.001), with higher mortality rate for males than females but higher variation for females than males. Urban (AAPC = 4.80%, AAPCAADRs = 1.76%, P < 0.05) and rural (AAPC = 5.31%, P < 0.001; AAPCAADRs = 0.99%, P > 0.05) mortality rates increased, with the mortality rate higher in rural areas than in urban areas. In the age analysis, mortality rate was higher in middle-aged and older adults than in other age groups. The age-sex cross-analysis found the highest trend in mortality rates among females aged ≥ 75 years (annual percentage change [APC] = 2.43%, P < 0.05). Conclusions: The upward trend in IHD mortality in China from 2010 to 2019, especially among female residents aged ≥ 75 years, poses continuing challenges to public health policies and actions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Background and purpose Cancer has become one of the major killers of humanity due to the number of people over the age of 75 increasing with population ageing. The aim of this study was to analyse the incidence and mortality rates in people over 75 of 29 cancer types in 204 countries and regions, as well as the trends from 1990 to 2019. Methods Twenty-nine cancer types were collected from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 database( https://vizhub.healthdata.org/gbd-results/ ). We collected global cancer data for 2019 in terms of sex, age, sociodemographic index (SDI), region, etc. The estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) was calculated to assess the trend of the cancer incidence and mortality rate from 1990 to 2019. Results In 2019, the number of new cancer cases and deaths among people 75 and older was almost 3 and 4.5 times that of 1990, respectively. From 1990 to 2019, there was a slow rise in incidence and a slight decline in mortality. There were significant differences in the cancer burden based on sex, age, region, and SDI. The cancer burden in men was higher than in women. In addition, the cancer burden varied from region to region. The highest cancer burden occurred in high-income North America. In addition, the higher the SDI was, the greater the burden of cancer. The incidence of cancer in high SDI was approximately seven times that of low SDI, and the trend of increase in high SDI was obvious. However, the trend of mortality in high SDI was decreasing, while it was increasing in low SDI. Conclusions The present study focused on the cancer burden in adults over 75 years old. The findings in the study could serve as the basis for an analysis of the types of cancers that are most prevalent in different regions. This is beneficial for strategies of prevention and treatment according to the characteristics of different countries and regions to reduce the burden of cancer in older adults.

Background: There is currently mixed evidence on the influence of long-term conditions and deprivation on mortality. We aimed to explore whether number of long-term conditions contribute to socioeconomic inequalities in mortality, whether the influence of number of conditions on mortality is consistent across socioeconomic groups and whether these associations vary by working age (18–64 years) and older adults (65 + years). We provide a cross-jurisdiction comparison between England and Ontario, by replicating the analysis using comparable representative datasets. Methods: Participants were randomly selected from Clinical Practice Research Datalink in England and health administrative data in Ontario. They were followed from 1 January 2015 to 31 December 2019 or death or deregistration. Number of conditions was counted at baseline. Deprivation was measured according to the participant's area of residence. Cox regression models were used to estimate hazards of mortality by number of conditions, deprivation and their interaction, with adjustment for age and sex and stratified between working age and older adults in England (N = 599,487) and Ontario (N = 594,546). Findings: There is a deprivation gradient in mortality between those living in the most deprived areas compared to the least deprived areas in England and Ontario. Number of conditions at baseline was associated with increasing mortality. The association was stronger in working age compared with older adults respectively in England (HR = 1.60, 95% CI 1.56,1.64 and HR = 1.26, 95% CI 1.25,1.27) and Ontario (HR = 1.69, 95% CI 1.66,1.72 and HR = 1.39, 95% CI 1.38,1.40). Number of conditions moderated the socioeconomic gradient in mortality: a shallower gradient was seen for persons with more long-term conditions. Conclusions: Number of conditions contributes to higher mortality rate and socioeconomic inequalities in mortality in England and Ontario. Current health care systems are fragmented and do not compensate for socioeconomic disadvantages, contributing to poor outcomes particularly for those managing multiple long-term conditions. Further work should identify how health systems can better support patients and clinicians who are working to prevent the development and improve the management of multiple long-term conditions, especially for individuals living in socioeconomically deprived areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: : This study aimed to investigate overall and age group/region/sex-specific excess all-cause mortality from the inception of the COVID-19 pandemic in Iran until February 2022. Methods: Weekly all-cause mortality data were obtained for the period March 2015 until February 2022. We conducted interrupted time series analyses, using a generalized least-square regression model to estimate excess mortality after the COVID-19 pandemic. Using this approach, we estimated the expected post-pandemic death counts based on five years of pre-pandemic data and compared the results with observed mortality during the pandemic. Results: After the COVID-19 pandemic, we observed an immediate increase (1,934 deaths per week, p = 0.01) in weekly all-cause mortality. An estimated 240,390 excess deaths were observed in two years after the pandemic. Within the same period, 136,166 deaths were officially attributed to COVID-19. The excess mortality was greatest among males compared with females (326 versus 264 per 100k), with an increasing trend by age group. There is a clear increased excess mortality in the central and northwestern provinces. Conclusion: We found that the full mortality burden during the outbreak has been much heavier than what is officially reported, with clear differences by sex, age group, and geographical region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: People with certain underlying respiratory and cardiovascular conditions might be at an increased risk for severe illness from COVID-19. Diesel Particulate Matter (DPM) exposure may affect the pulmonary and cardiovascular systems. The study aims to assess if DPM was spatially associated with COVID-19 mortality rates across three waves of the disease and throughout 2020. Methods: We tested an ordinary least squares (OLS) model, then two global models, a spatial lag model (SLM) and a spatial error model (SEM) designed to explore spatial dependence, and a geographically weighted regression (GWR) model designed to explore local associations between COVID-19 mortality rates and DPM exposure, using data from the 2018 AirToxScreen database. Results: The GWR model found that associations between COVID-19 mortality rate and DPM concentrations may increase up to 77 deaths per 100,000 people in some US counties for every interquartile range (0.21 μg/m3) increase in DPM concentration. Significant positive associations between mortality rate and DPM were observed in New York, New Jersey, eastern Pennsylvania, and western Connecticut for the wave from January to May, and in southern Florida and southern Texas for June to September. The period from October to December exhibited a negative association in most parts of the US, which seems to have influenced the year-long relationship due to the large number of deaths during that wave of the disease. Conclusions: Our models provided a picture in which long-term DPM exposure may have influenced COVID-19 mortality during the early stages of the disease. That influence appears to have waned over time as transmission patterns evolved. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: During the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic a high case fatality rate (CFR) was noticed worldwide including also Germany where the first European cases have been observed. The WHO recommended immediate intubation for patients with dyspnoea which has since been revised after reviewing the initial clinical outcome. The objective of this study is to analyze CFR and assess if there is an advantage of a more conservative management of COVID-19 induced hypoxemia. Methods: PCR confirmed COVID-19 infections and death counts were obtained for all German districts from 27 Jan 2020 until 15 Feb 2021 using official reports of Robert Koch Institute Berlin, Germany. A moving average CFRt was constructed by dividing disease related deaths two weeks after a given index day by the number of infections two weeks prior to that date. In addition to a local comparison also mortality outcomes in other German speaking countries were compared. Results: The mean CFR is estimated to be 2.92% based on 71.965 fatalities and 2.465.407 cases. There was a large regional scattering of CFRs across the German districts. Differences of the mortality pattern were observed also at state level and preserved across different sex and age groups while being largely independent of case numbers. Although Munich city had higher infection rates, more patients died during the first wave in Hamburg (OR 1.6, 95% CI 1.3–1.9) which was mirrored also by higher death risk at Hamburg intensive care units (OR 2.0, 95% CI 1.3–3.1). While the majority of Munich hospitals favoured a conservative management of hypoxemia including high flow nasal cannula (HFNC), Hamburg hospitals followed a more aggressive scheme of early mechanical ventilation (MV). Austria and Switzerland experienced higher CFRs than Germany during the first wave but after changing their treatment guidelines, both countries experienced lower CFRs during the second wave. Conclusion: Using retrospective public health data, different case fatality rates have been observed across Germany. A more conservative management of COVID-19 induced Adult Respiratory Distress Syndrome (ARDS) is justified also by epidemiological data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: One of the seminal events since 2019 has been the outbreak of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. Countries have adopted various policies to deal with it, but they also differ in their socio-geographical characteristics and public health care facilities. Our study aimed to investigate differences between epidemiological parameters across countries. Method: The analysed data represents SARS-CoV-2 repository provided by the Johns Hopkins University. Separately for each country, we estimated recovery and mortality rates using the SIRD model applied to the first 30, 60, 150, and 300 days of the pandemic. Moreover, a mixture of normal distributions was fitted to the number of confirmed cases and deaths during the first 300 days. The estimates of peaks' means and variances were used to identify countries with outlying parameters. Results: For 300 days Belgium, Cyprus, France, the Netherlands, Serbia, and the UK were classified as outliers by all three outlier detection methods. Yemen was classified as an outlier for each of the four considered timeframes, due to high mortality rates. During the first 300 days of the pandemic, the majority of countries underwent three peaks in the number of confirmed cases, except Australia and Kazakhstan with two peaks. Conclusions: Considering recovery and mortality rates we observed heterogeneity between countries. Liechtenstein was the "positive" outlier with low mortality rates and high recovery rates, at the opposite, Yemen represented a "negative" outlier with high mortality for all four considered periods and low recovery for 30 and 60 days. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examines the effects of long-run civil wars on healthcare, which is an important component of human capital development and their causality nexus in Afghanistan using the MVAR (modified vector autoregressive) approach and the Granger non-causality model covering data period 2002Q3-2020Q4. The primary results support a significant long-run relationship between variables, while the results of the MVAR model indicate the per capita cost of war, per capita GDP, and age dependency ratio have significantly positive impacts on per capita health expenditures, whereas child mortality rate and crude death rate have negative impacts. The results of the Granger non-causality approach demonstrate that there is a statistically significant bidirectional causality nexus between per capita health expenditure, per capita cost of war, per capita GDP, child mortality rate, crude death rate, and age dependency ratio, while it also supports the existence of strong and significant interconnectivity and multidimensionality between per capita cost of war and per capita health expenditure, with a significantly strong feedback response from the control variables. Important policy implications sourced from the key findings are also discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Parkinson's disease (PD) remains a common disabling progressive neurodegenerative disorder. We aimed to report the prevalence, death and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) attributable to PD in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region and its 21 countries by age, sex and socio-demographic index (SDI), between 1990 and 2019. Methods: Publicly available data on the burden of PD in the MENA countries were retrieved from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 project. The results are presented with age-standardised numbers and rates per 100,000 population, along with their corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). Results: In 2019, PD had an age-standardised point prevalence of 82.6 per 100,000 population in MENA and an age-standardised death rate of 5.3, which have increased from 1990 to 2019 by 15.4% and 2.3%, respectively. In 2019, the age-standardised DALY rate of PD was 84.4, which was 0.9% higher than in 1990. The highest and lowest age-standardised DALY rates of PD in 2019 were found in Qatar and Kuwait, respectively. Also in 2019, the highest number of prevalent cases and number of DALYs were found in the 75–79 age group for both sexes. In 2019, females in MENA had an overall higher DALY rate. Furthermore, from 1990 to 2019 the burden of PD generally decreased with increasing socio-economic development, up to an SDI of around 0.4, and then increased with higher levels of SDI. Conclusion: An upward trend was observed in the point prevalence of PD over the last three decades. This highlights the need to allocate more resources for research. Furthermore, properly equipped healthcare services are needed for the increasing number of patients with PD. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Ensuring health equity, especially for vulnerable populations in less developed settings with poor health system is essential for the current and future global health threats. This study examined geographical variations of COVID-19 mortality and its association with population health characteristics, health care capacity in responding pandemic, and socio-economic characteristics across 514 districts in Indonesia. Methods: This nationwide ecological study included aggregated data of COVID-19 cases and deaths from all 514 districts in Indonesia, recorded in the National COVID-19 Task Force database, during the first two years of the epidemic, from 1 March 2020 to 27 February 2022. The dependent variable was district-level COVID-19 mortality rate per 100,000 populations. The independent variables include district-level COVID-19 incidence rate, population health, health care capacity, and socio-demographics data from government official sources. We used multivariable ordinal logistic regression to examine factors associated with higher mortality rate. Results: Of total 5,539,333 reported COVID-19 cases, 148,034 (2.7%) died, and 5,391,299 (97.4%) were recovered. The district-level mortality rate ranged from 0 to 284 deaths per 100,000 populations. The top five districts with the highest mortality rate were Balikpapan (284 deaths per 100,000 populations), Semarang (263), Madiun (254), Magelang (250), and Yogyakarta (247). A higher COVID-19 incidence (coefficient 1.64, 95% CI 1.22 to 1.75), a higher proportion of ≥ 60 years old population (coefficient 0.26, 95% CI 0.06 to 0.46), a higher prevalence of diabetes mellitus (coefficient 0.60, 95% CI 0.37 to 0.84), a lower prevalence of obesity (coefficient -0.32, 95% CI -0.56 to -0.08), a lower number of nurses per population (coefficient -0.27, 95% CI -0.50 to -0.04), a higher number of midwives per population (coefficient 0.32, 95% CI 0.13 to 0.50), and a higher expenditure (coefficient 0.34, 95% CI 0.10 to 0.57) was associated with a higher COVID-19 mortality rate. Conclusion: COVID-19 mortality rate in Indonesia was highly heterogeneous and associated with higher COVID-19 incidence, different prevalence of pre-existing comorbidity, healthcare capacity in responding the pandemic, and socio-economic characteristics. This study revealed the need of controlling both COVID-19 and those known comorbidities, health capacity strengthening, and better resource allocation to ensure optimal health outcomes for vulnerable population. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]