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Background Dengue is rapidly expanding climate-sensitive mosquito-borne disease worldwide. Outbreaks of dengue occur in various parts of India as well but there is no tool to provide early warning. The current study was, therefore, undertaken to find out the link between El Niño, precipitation, and dengue cases, which could help in early preparedness for control of dengue. Methods Data on Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) was extracted from CPC-IRI (USA) while the data on monthly rainfall was procured from India Meteorological Department. Data on annual dengue cases was taken from the website of National Vector Borne Disease Control Programme (NVBDCP). Correlation analysis was used to analyse the relationship between seasonal positive ONI, rainfall index and dengue case index based on past 20 years’ state-level data. The dengue case index representing ‘relative deviation from mean’ was correlated to the 3 months average ONI. The computed r values of dengue case index and positive ONI were further interpreted using generated spatial correlation map. The short-term prediction of dengue probability map has been prepared based on phase-wise (El Niño, La Niña, and Neutral) 20 years averaged ONI. Results A high correlation between positive ONI and dengue incidence was found, particularly in the states of Arunachal Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Haryana, Uttarakhand, Andaman and Nicobar Islands, Delhi, Daman and Diu. The states like Assam, Himachal Pradesh, Meghalaya, Manipur, Mizoram, Jammu & Kashmir, Uttar Pradesh, Orissa, and Andhra Pradesh shown negative correlation between summer El Niño and dengue incidence. Two - three month lag was found between monthly ‘rainfall index’ and dengue cases at local-scale analysis. Conclusion The generated map signifies the spatial correlation between positive ONI and dengue case index, indicating positive correlation in the central part, while negative correlation in some coastal, northern, and north-eastern part of India. The findings offer a tool for early preparedness for undertaking intervention measures against dengue by the national programme at state level. For further improvement of results, study at micro-scale district level for finding month-wise association with Indian Ocean Dipole and local weather variables is desired for better explanation of dengue outbreaks in the states with ‘no association’.

Background In 2006, severe outbreaks of Aedes aegypti-transmitted chikungunya occurred in villages in Karnataka, South India. We evaluated the effectiveness of combined information, education and communication (IEC) campaigns using two potential poeciliid larvivorous fish guppy (Poecilia reticulata) and mosquitofish (Gambusia affinis), in indoor cement tanks for Aedes larval control. Methods Trials were conducted in two villages (Domatmari and Srinivaspura) in Tumkur District from March to May 2006 for Poecilia and one village (Balmanda) in Kolar District from July to October 2006 for Gambusia. A survey on knowledge, attitude and practice (KAP) on chikungunya was initially conducted and IEC campaigns were performed before and after fish release in Domatmari (IEC alone, followed by IEC + Poecilia) and Balmanda (IEC + Gambusia). In Srinivaspura, IEC was not conducted. Larval surveys were conducted at the baseline followed by one-week and one-month post-intervention periods. The impact of fish on Aedes larvae and disease was assessed based on baseline and post-intervention observations. Results Only 18% of respondents knew of the role of mosquitoes in fever outbreaks, while almost all (n = 50 each) gained new knowledge from the IEC campaigns. In Domatmari, IEC alone was not effective (OR 0.54; p = 0.067). Indoor cement tanks were the most preferred Ae. aegypti breeding habitat (86.9%), and had a significant impact on Aedes breeding (Breteau Index) in all villages in the one-week period (p < 0.001). In the one-month period, the impact was most sustained in Domatmari (OR 1.58, p < 0.001) then Srinivaspura (OR 0.45, p = 0.063) and Balmanda (OR 0.51, p = 0.067). After fish introductions, chikungunya cases were reduced by 99.87% in Domatmari, 65.48% in Srinivaspura and 68.51% in Balmanda. Conclusions Poecilia exhibited greater survival rates than Gambusia (86.04 vs.16.03%) in cement tanks. Neither IEC nor Poecilia alone was effective against Aedes (p > 0.05). We conclude that Poecilia + IEC is an effective intervention strategy. The operational cost was 0.50 (US$ 0.011, 1 US$= 47) per capita per application. Proper water storage practices, focused IEC with Poecilia introductions and vector sanitation involving the local administration and community, is suggested as the best strategy for Aedes control.