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Abstract Background The elderly, especially those with physical disabilities, often encounter barriers that prevent them from accessing outdoor activities. Their perceptions of the convenience of accessing outdoor activities may be influenced by various factors including their health, the social context, and/or planned behavior. This study aimed to develop predictive models that identify the principal determinants of perceived convenience among this demographic, and it also examined the disparities observed between genders. Methods This was a cross-sectional survey of 1216 community-dwelling older people with physical disabilities in rural China. Grounded on the rehabilitation concepts and the theory of planned behavior, structural equation models integrated health and social behavior factors were constructed to predict perceived convenience of accessing outdoor activities. The standardized coefficients explained the contributions of various factors to the variance. Results The final structural models demonstrated good fit for both female and male participants. Perceptions of the convenience of accessing outdoor activities among both women and men were directly impacted by their physical functioning and their intention to participate, and indirectly by medical expenditure, subjective norms, pain, and role limitation in emotional interactions. Positive mental health was more influential for women, while men were more influenced by subjective norms. Conclusions Structural equation models have effectively predicted the self-reported convenience of accessing outdoor activities, underscoring the importance of functional and behavioral rehabilitation. Furthermore, gender-sensitive rehabilitation programs are advised to promote engagement in outdoor activities among elderly individuals with physical disabilities.