Search

Introduction Malaria accounts for more than one-tenth of sub-Saharan Africa’s 2.8 million annual childhood deaths, and remains a leading cause of post-neonatal child mortality in Uganda. Despite increased community-based treatment in Uganda, children continue to die because services fail to reach those most at risk. This study explores the influence of two key equity factors, socioeconomic position and rurality, on whether children with fever in eastern Uganda receive timely access to appropriate treatment for suspected malaria. Methods This was a cross-sectional study in which data were collected from 1094 caregivers of children aged 6–59 months on: illness and care-seeking during the previous two weeks, treatment received, and treatment dosing schedule. Additional data on rurality and household socioeconomic position were extracted from the Iganga-Mayuge Health and Demographic Surveillance Site (HDSS) database. A child was considered to have received prompt and appropriate care for symptoms of malaria if they received the recommended drug in the recommended dosing schedule on the day of symptom onset or the next day. Unadjusted and adjusted logistic regression models were developed to explore associations of the two equity factors with the outcome. The STROBE checklist for observational studies guided reporting. Results Seventy-four percent of children had symptoms of illness in the preceding two weeks, of which fever was the most common. Children from rural households were statistically more likely to receive prompt and appropriate treatment with artemisinin-combination therapy than their semi-urban counterparts (OR 2.32, CI 1.17–4.59, p = 0.016). This association remained significant following application of an adjusted regression model that included the age of the child, caregiver relationship, and household wealth index (OR 2.4, p = 0.036). Wealth index in its own right did not exert a significant effect for children with reported fever (OR for wealthiest quintile = 1.02, CI 0.48–2.15, p = 0.958). Conclusions The findings from this study help to identify the role and importance of two key equity determinants on care seeking and treatment receipt for fever in children. Whilst results should be interpreted within the limitations of data and context, further studies have the potential to assist policy makers to target inequitable social and spatial variations in health outcomes as a key strategy in ending preventable child morbidity and mortality.

Background India has achieved impressive gains in child survival over the last two decades; however, it was not successful in attaining MDG 2015 goals. The study’s objective is to inquire how the survival status of the preceding child affects the survival of the next born child. Methods This is a retrospective analysis of data from the National Family Health Survey, 2015–16. Analysis was restricted to women with second or higher-order births because women with first-order births do not have a preceding child. Proportional hazards regression, also called the Cox regression model, has been used to carry out the analysis. Kaplan–Meier (K–M) survival curves were also generated, with a focus on preceding birth intervals. Results Results found that female children were more likely to experience infant mortality than their male counterparts. Children born after birth intervals of 36+ months were least likely to experience infant mortality. Mother’s education and household wealth are two strong predictors of child survival, while the place of residence and caste did not show any effect in the Cox proportional model. Infant and child deaths are highly clustered among those mothers whose earlier child is dead. Conclusion Maternal childbearing age is still low in India, and it poses a high risk of infant and child death. Education is a way out, and there is a need to focus on girl’s education. The government shall also focus on raising awareness of the importance of spacing between two successive births. There is also a need to create a better health infrastructure catering to the needs of rich and poor people alike.

Background Conceptual and theoretical links between politics and public health are longstanding. Internationally comparative systematic review evidence has shown links between four key political exposures – the welfare state, political tradition, democracy and globalisation – on population health outcomes. However, the pathways through which these influences may operate have not been systematically appraised. Therefore, focusing on child and maternal health outcomes, we present a realist re-analysis of the dataset from a recent systematic review. Methods The database from a recent systematic review on the political determinants of health was used as the data source for this realist review. Included studies from the systematic review were re-evaluated and those relating to child and/or maternal health outcomes were included in the realist synthesis. Initial programme theories were generated through realist engagement with the prior systematic review. These programme theories were adjudicated and refined through detailed engagement with the evidence base using a realist re-synthesis involving two independent reviewers. The revised theories that best corresponded to the evidence base formed the final programme theories. Results Out of the 176 included studies from the systematic review, a total of 67 included child and/or maternal health outcomes and were included in the realist re-analysis. Sixty-three of these studies were ecological and data were collected between 1950 and 2014. Six initial programme theories were generated. Following theory adjudication, three theories in revised form were supported and formed the final programme theories. These related to a more generous welfare state leading to better child and maternal health especially in developed countries through progressive social welfare policies, left-of-centre political tradition leading to lower child mortality and low birth weight especially in developed countries through greater focus on welfare measures, and increased globalisation leading to greater child and infant mortality and youth smoking rates in LMECs through greater influence of multinational corporations and neoliberal trade organisations. Conclusion We present a realist re-analysis of a large systematically identified body of evidence on how four key political exposures – the welfare state, democracy, political tradition and globalisation – relate to child and maternal health outcomes. Three final programme theories were supported.

Background Complete childhood vaccination remains poor in Sub-Saharan Africa, despite major improvement in childhood vaccination coverage worldwide. Globally, an estimated 2.5 million children die annually from vaccine-preventable diseases. While studies are being conducted in different East African countries, there is limited evidence of complete basic childhood vaccinations and associated factors in East Africa among children aged 12–23 months. Therefore, this study aimed to investigate complete basic childhood vaccinations and associated factors among children aged 12–23 months in East Africa. Methods Based on the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHSs) of 12 East African countries (Burundi, Ethiopia, Comoros, Uganda, Rwanda, Tanzania, Mozambique, Madagascar, Zimbabwe, Kenya, Zambia, and Malawi), secondary data analysis was performed. The study included a total weighted sample of 18,811 children aged 12–23 months. The basic childhood vaccination coverage was presented using a bar graph. Multilevel binary logistic regression analysis was fitted for identifying significantly associated factors because the DHS has a hierarchical nature. The Intra-class Correlation Coefficient (ICC), Median Odds Ratio (MOR), Proportional Change in Variance (PCV), and deviance (−2LLR) were used for checking model fitness, and for model comparison. Variable with p-value ≤0.2 in the bi-variable multilevel analysis were considered for the multivariable analysis. In the multivariable multilevel analysis, the Adjusted Odds Ratio (AOR) with 95% Confidence Interval (CI) were reported to declare the significance and strength of association with full vaccination. Results Complete basic childhood vaccination in East Africa was 69.21% (95% CI, 69.20, 69.21%). In the multivariable multilevel analysis; Mothers aged 25–34 years (AOR = 1.21, 95% CI: 1.10, 1.32), mothers aged 35 years and above (AOR = 1.50, 95% CI: 1.31, 1.71), maternal primary education (AOR = 1.26, 95% CI: 1.15, 1.38), maternal secondary education and above (AOR = 1.54, 95% CI: 1.36, 1.75), husband primary education (AOR = 1.25, 95% CI: 1.13, 1.39), husband secondary education and above (AOR = 1.24, 95% CI: 1.11, 1.40), media exposure (AOR = 1.23, 95% CI: 1.13, 1.33), birth interval of 24–48 months (AOR = 1.28, 95% CI: 1.15, 1.42), birth interval greater than 48 months (AOR = 1.35, 95% CI: 1.21, 1.50), having 1–3 ANC visit (AOR = 3.24, 95% CI: 2.78, 3.77), four and above ANC visit (AOR = 3.68, 95% CI: 3.17, 4.28), PNC visit (AOR = 1.34, 95% CI: 1.23, 1.47), health facility delivery (AOR = 1.48, 95% CI: 1.35, 1.62), large size at birth 1.09 (AOR = 1.09, 95% CI: 1.01, 1.19), being 4–6 births (AOR = 0.83, 95% CI: 0.75, 0.91), being above the sixth birth (AOR = 0.60, 95% CI: 0.52, 0.70), middle wealth index (AOR = 1.16, 95% CI: 1.06, 1.28), rich wealth index (AOR = 1.20, 95% CI: 1.09, 1.33), community poverty (AOR = 1.21, 95% CI: 1.11, 1.32) and country were significantly associated with complete childhood vaccination. Conclusions In East Africa, full basic childhood vaccine coverage remains a major public health concern with substantial differences across countries. Complete basic childhood vaccination was significantly associated with maternal age, maternal education, husband education, media exposure, preceding birth interval, number of ANC visits, PNC visits, place of delivery, child-size at birth, parity, wealth index, country, and community poverty. Public health interventions should therefore target children born to uneducated mothers and fathers, poor families, and those who have not used maternal health services to enhance full childhood vaccination to reduce the incidence of child mortality from vaccine-preventable diseases.

Background Under-five mortality in Chad reached a minimum value of 119 deaths per 1000 live births in 2018, compared with a maximum of 250 in 1972. Despite this decline in the mortality trend, for every six children in Chad, one dies before the age of five. This study, therefore, investigated the proximate, intermediate, and distal determinants of under-five mortality in Chad. Methods We used data from the 2014–15 Chad's Demographic and Health Survey. Data of 7782 children below 5 years were used for the study. Both descriptive and multivariable hierarchical logistic regression analyses were performed. Statistical significance was declared at p Results Under-five mortality was found to be 130 deaths per 1000 live births in Chad, with variations across the various population sub-groups. For distal predictors, the likelihood of death was higher in children born in the FChari Baguirmi region (AOR = 3.83, 95% CI: 1.81–8.14). Children whose mothers belonged to the Baguirmi/Barma ethnic group (AOR = 8.04, 95% CI: 1.75–36.99) were more likely to die before the age of five. On the contrary, the likelihood of under-five mortality was low among children born in rural areas (AOR = 0.73, 95% CI: 0.55–0.97). With the intermediate predictors, the likelihood of under-five deaths was higher among children whose mothers had no formal education (AOR = 1.72, 95% CI: 1.06–2.77). Regarding the proximate predictors, the odds of under-five deaths was higher among male children (AOR = 1.03, 95% CI: 1.05–1.63) and first rank children (AOR = 1.58, 95% CI: 1.13–2.21). Conclusion The study found that the determinants of under-five mortality in Chad are region of residence, place of residence, ethnicity, education, sex of child, and birth rank. These findings show that both socio-economic and proximate factors explain the disparities in under-five mortality in Chad. The identification of these factors can be pivotal towards the design of evidence-based interventions intended to improve child survival. Therefore, improving maternal education while refocusing and re-packaging existing strategies to target selected sub-regional populations with high under-five mortality is urgently required.

Background Under-five mortality (U5M) rates are among the health indicators of utmost importance globally. It is the goal 3 target 2.1 of the Sustainable Development Goals that is expected to be reduced to at least 25 per 1000 livebirths by 2030. Despite a considerable reduction in U5M observed globally, several countries especially those in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) like Ghana are struggling to meet this target. Evidence-based targeting and utilization of the available limited public health resources are critical for effective design of intervention strategies that will enhance under-five child survival. We aimed to estimate and map U5M risk, with the ultimate goal of identifying communities at high risk where interventions and further research can be targeted. Methods The 2014 Ghana Demographic and Health Survey data was used in this study. Geostatistical analyses were conducted on 5884 children residing in 423 geographical clusters. The outcome variable is child survival status (alive or dead). We employed a geostatistical generalised linear mixed model to investigate both measured and unmeasured child specific and spatial risk factors for child survival. We then visualise child mortality by mapping the predictive probability of survival. Results Of the total sampled under 5 children, 289 (4.91%) experienced the outcome of interest. Children born as multiple births were at increased risk of mortality with an adjusted odds ratio (aOR) (aOR: 8.2532, 95% CI: [5.2608–12.9477]) compared to singletons. Maternal age increased risk of mortality (aOR: 1.0325, 95% CI: [1.0128–1.0527]). Child’s age (aOR: 0.2277, 95% CI: [0.1870–0.2771]) and number of children under 5 within each household (aOR: 0.3166, 95% CI: [0.2614–0.3835]) were shown to have a protective effect. Additionally, mothers with secondary education level (aOR: 0.6258, 95% CI: [0.4298–0.9114]) decreased the risk of U5M. The predicted U5M risk in 2014 was at 5.98%. Substantial residual spatial variations were observed in U5M. Conclusion The analysis found that multiple births is highly associated with increased U5M in Ghana. The high-resolution maps show areas and communities where interventions and further research for U5M can be prioritised to have health impact.

Background The incidence of maternal mortality remains unacceptably high in developing countries. Ethiopia has developed many strategies to reduce maternal and child mortality by encouraging institutional delivery services. However, only one-fourth of women gave birth at health facility, in the country. This, this study aimed to identify individual level factors and to assess the regional variation of institutional delivery utilization in Ethiopia. Methods Data were obtained from the 2016 Ethiopian demographic and health survey. In this study, a total of 7174 reproductive age women who had birth within five years were included. We fitted multilevel logistic regression model to identify significantly associated factors associated with institutional delivery. A mixture chi-square test was used to test random effects. Statistical significance was declared at p Result The level of institutional delivery was 38.9%. Women’s who had focused antenatal care (FANC) visit (AOR = 3.12, 95% CI: 2.73–3.56), multiple gestations (AOR = 2.06, 95% CI: 1.32–3.21, and being urban residence (AOR = 7.18, 95% CI: 5.10–10.12) were more likely to give birth at health facility compared to its counterpart. Compared to women’s without formal education, giving birth at health facility was more likely for women’s who had primary education level (AOR = 1.77, 95% CI: 1.49–2.10), secondary education level (AOR = 3.79, 95% CI: 2.72–5.30), and higher education level (AOR = 5.86, 95% CI: 3.25–10.58). Furthermore, women who reside in rich (AOR = 2.39, 95% CI: 1.86–3.06) and middle (AOR = 1.66, 95% CI: 1.36–2.03) household wealth index were more likely to deliver at health facility compared to women’s who reside poor household wealth index. Moreover, this study revealed that 34% of the total variation in the odds of women delivered at health institution accounted by regional level. Conclusion The level of institutional delivery in Ethiopia remains low. Context specific and tailored programs that includes educating women and improving access to ANC services has a potential to improve institutional delivery in Ethiopia.

BackgroundChild and adolescent injury is one of the leading causes of child death globally with a large proportion occurring in Low- and Middle-Income Countries (LMICs). Similarly, the Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR) countries borne a heavy burden that largely impact child and adolescent safety and health in the region. We aim to assess child and adolescent injury morbidity and mortality and estimate its burden in the Eastern Mediterranean Region based on findings from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD), Injuries and Risk Factors study 2017.MethodsData from the Global Burden of Disease GBD 2017 were used to estimate injury mortality for children aged 0–19, Years of Life Lost (YLLs), Years lived with Disability (YLDs) and Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) by age and sex from 1990 to 2017.ResultsIn 2017, an estimated 133,117 (95% UI 122,587-143,361) children died in EMR compared to 707,755 (95% UI 674401.6–738,166.6) globally. The highest rate of injury deaths was reported in Syria at 183.7 (95% UI 181.8–185.7) per 100,000 population. The leading cause of injury deaths was self-harm and interpersonal violence followed by transport injury. The primary cause of injury DALYs in EMR in 2017 was self-harm and interpersonal violence with a rate of 1272.95 (95% UI 1228.9 – 1319.2) almost 3-times the global rate.ConclusionAlmost 19% of global child injury related deaths occur in the EMR. Concerted efforts should be integrated to inform policies and adopt injury preventive strategies to reduce injury burden and promote child and adolescent health and well-being in EMR countries.

Background More attention should be paid to communicable disease-specific infant mortality rate (CD-IMR) in rural China. However, few studies have examined specific geographic patterns and trends in CD-IMR in these areas. Our aims were to assess the epidemiological distribution and trends in CD-IMR in rural China for the period 1996–2015. Methods We used data from China’s Under-5 Child Mortality Surveillance System (U5CMSS). The time trends in communicable disease-specific IMR (CD-IMR) were assessed by Poisson regression model, and the proportion of total infant deaths due to communicable disease was assessed by the Cochran Armitage trend test. Differences in CD-IMR among and within geographic regions were assessed for significance using the Cochran–Mantel–Haenszel test. Results The overall CD-IMR fell by 86.0% from 1444.3 to 201.5 per 100,000 live births in rural mainland China from 1996 to 2015. The proportion of total infant deaths related to communicable disease fell from 33.4 to 19.7%. Using eastern rural areas as the reference, rate ratios (RRs) of IMR due to all communicable diseases ranged between 1.7 and 3.1 in central rural areas and between 4.4 and 9.8 in western areas during the four study intervals. Acute respiratory infection (ARI) accounted for 71% of deaths, followed by diarrhea and septicemia. Conclusions IMR due to communicable disease remains a major public health issue. ARI is the leading cause of mortality, followed by diarrhea. A regional gap remains in the risk of infant exposure to communicable disease in rural China. More attention should be paid to western rural areas.

Background Globally, an estimate of 254,928 measles cases in 2015 and 89,780 deaths in 2016 occur annually. In Nigeria, measles is the fifth leading causes of under-five child mortality with 342 confirmed cases found in the first 9 epidemic weeks in some states including Osun State. We described the distribution, trend and make projection of measles cases in Osun State. Methods The Osun State surveillance weekly reporting data on measles cases from all its 30 Local Government Area (LGA) were reviewed, from January 2016 to December 2018 (n = 1205). Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics and a multiplicative time series model (MTSM). The MTSM was used to determine the trend, seasonality in the data and make projections for 2019 and 2020. Results Cases of measles were reported across the 30 LGAs of the state between January 2016 and December 2018. The rate of reported cases of measles was 20.2, 34.4 and 28.8 per 100,000 populations in 2016, 2017 and 2018 respectively in Ede south LGA where the highest rates were reported in the 3-year period. Out of the three studied years, year 2017, recorded the highest number of reported cases of measles in Osun State. The trend line for the 3-year period showed a positive correlation (r = + 0.4979, p = 0.056). The computed quarterly variation for the studied years was 1.094 for the 1st quarter, 1.162 for the 2nd quarter, 0.861 for the 3rd quarter and 0.888 for the 4th quarter. A quarterly projection for 2019 and 2020 showed an increasing trend with the second quarter of each year likely to have the highest reported cases of measles. Conclusions Ede south LGA has the highest proportion of reported measles cases in Osun State. Measles cases may increase in years ahead, but the second quarter of a year has the highest number. Government should strengthen the existing framework on measles reduction and more attention should be given to the second quarter of each year.

Background To reduce the under-five mortality (U5M), fine-gained spatial assessment of the effects of health interventions is critical because national averages can obscure important sub-national disparities. In turn, sub-national estimates can guide control programmes for spatial targeting. The purpose of our study is to quantify associations of interventions with U5M rate at national and sub-national scales in Uganda and to identify interventions associated with the largest reductions in U5M rate at the sub-national scale. Methods Spatially explicit data on U5M, interventions and sociodemographic indicators were obtained from the 2011 Uganda Demographic and Health Survey (DHS). Climatic data were extracted from remote sensing sources. Bayesian geostatistical Weibull proportional hazards models with spatially varying effects at sub-national scales were utilized to quantify associations between all-cause U5M and interventions at national and regional levels. Bayesian variable selection was employed to select the most important determinants of U5M. Results At the national level, interventions associated with the highest reduction in U5M were artemisinin-based combination therapy (hazard rate ratio (HRR) = 0.60; 95% Bayesian credible interval (BCI): 0.11, 0.79), initiation of breastfeeding within 1 h of birth (HR = 0.70; 95% BCI: 0.51, 0.86), intermittent preventive treatment (IPTp) (HRR = 0.74; 95% BCI: 0.67, 0.97) and access to insecticide-treated nets (ITN) (HRR = 0.75; 95% BCI: 0.63, 0.84). In Central 2, Mid-Western and South-West, largest reduction in U5M was associated with access to ITNs. In Mid-North and West-Nile, improved source of drinking water explained most of the U5M reduction. In North-East, improved sanitation facilities were associated with the highest decline in U5M. In Kampala and Mid-Eastern, IPTp had the largest associated with U5M. In Central1 and East-Central, oral rehydration solution and postnatal care were associated with highest decreases in U5M respectively. Conclusion Sub-national estimates of the associations between U5M and interventions can guide control programmes for spatial targeting and accelerate progress towards mortality-related Sustainable Development Goals.

Background Half of global child deaths occur in sub-Saharan Africa. Understanding child mortality patterns and risk factors will help inform interventions to reduce this heavy toll. The Nanoro Health and Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS), Burkina Faso was described previously, but patterns and potential drivers of heterogeneity in child mortality in the district had not been studied. Similar studies in other districts indicated proximity to health facilities as a risk factor, usually without distinction between facility types. Methods Using Nanoro HDSS data from 2009 to 2013, we estimated the association between under-5 mortality and proximity to inpatient and outpatient health facilities, seasonality of death, age group, and standard demographic risk factors. Results Living in homes 40–60 min and > 60 min travel time from an inpatient facility was associated with 1.52 (95% CI: 1.13–2.06) and 1.74 (95% CI: 1.27–2.40) greater hazard of under-5 mortality, respectively, than living in homes Conclusions Our results emphasize the importance of geographical proximity to health care, distinguish between inpatient and outpatient facilities, and also show a seasonal effect, probably driven by malaria.

Background The United Nations Interagency Group for Child Mortality Estimation (UNIGME) indicates that child mortality is the death rate of children between age zero to five. The importance of this area of research is high where worldwide a number of studies have been led on infant and child mortality, despite limited research discoveries with regards to Sri Lanka. The aim of this study is to investigate the socio-economic and demographic characteristics associated with child mortality in Sri Lanka. Methods Using the context of Sri Lanka as a case study, this study carried out based on data gathered from the micro level national survey. Using the logit regression model through the step-wise technique, the study investigate the socio-economic and demographic characteristics associated with child mortality in Sri Lanka. Results According to the generated results, place of residence province-wise, household head’s education level and source of drinking water have negative effect (lower risk) on child mortality in Sri Lanka. Exceptionally, the Western province has the highest negative effect on child mortality which demonstrates it as the least harmful region in Sri Lanka in child endurance. Household heads who owns private entities and Sri Lankan Moors has a positive effect on child mortality as well. Conclusion This study is helpful to address the population health of local arena and results can be supportive to the government and policymakers to gain an overview of physical health status of the country and able to uplift their policies based on the new findings.

Background India has made substantial progress in improving child health in recent years. However, the country continues to account for a large number of vaccine preventable child deaths. We estimated wealth-related full immunization inequalities in India. We also calculated the degree to which predisposing, reinforcing, and enabling factors contribute to these inequalities. Methods We used data from the two rounds of a large nationally representative survey done in all states in India in 2005–06 (n = 9582) and 2015–16 (n = 49,284). Full immunization status was defined as three doses of diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis vaccine, three doses of polio vaccine, one dose of Bacillus Calmette–Guérin vaccine, and one dose of measles vaccine in children 12–23 months. We compared full immunization coverage by wealth quintiles using descriptive statistics. We calculated concentration indices for full immunization coverage at the national and state levels. Using predisposing, reinforcing, and enabling factors associated with full immunization status identified from the literature, we applied a generalized linear model (GLM) framework with a binomial distribution and an identity link to decompose the concentration index. Results National full immunization coverage increased from 43.65% in 2005–06 to 62.46% in 2015–16. Overall, full immunization coverage in both 2005–06 and 2015–16 in all states was lowest in children from poorer households and improved with increasing socioeconomic status. The national concentration index decreased from 0.36 to 0.13 between the two study periods, indicating a reduction in poor-rich inequality. Similar reductions were observed for most states, except in states where inequalities were already minimal (i.e., Tamil Nadu) and in some northeastern states (i.e., Meghalaya and Manipur). In 2005–06, the contributors to wealth-related full immunization inequality were antenatal care, maternal education, and socioeconomic status. The same factors contributed to full immunization inequality in 2015–16 in addition to difficulty reaching a health facility. Conclusions Immunization coverage and wealth-related equality have improved nationally and in most states over the last decade in India. Targeted, context-specific interventions could help address overall wealth-related full immunization inequalities. Intensified government efforts could help in this regard, particularly in high-focus states where child mortality remains high.

Background The mortality rate in children under 5 years old (U5MR) has decreased considerably in Ecuador in the last decade; however, thousands of children continue to die from causes related to poverty. A social program known as Bono de Desarrollo Humano (BDH) was created to guarantee a minimum level of consumption for families and to reduce chronic malnutrition and preventable childhood diseases. We sought to evaluate the effect of the BDH program on mortality of children younger than 5 years, particularly from malnutrition, diarrheal diseases, and lower respiratory tract infections. Methods Mortality rates and BDH coverage from 2009 to 2014 were evaluated from the 144 (of 222) Ecuadorian counties with intermediate and high quality of vital information. A multivariable regression analyses for panel data was conducted by using a negative binomial regression model with fixed effects, adjusted for all relevant demographic and socioeconomic covariates. Results Our research shows that for each 1% increase in BDH county coverage there would be a decrease in U5MR from malnutrition of 3% (RR 0.971, 95% CI 0.953–0.989). An effect of BDH county coverage on mortality resulting from respiratory infections was also observed (RR 0.992, 95% CI 0.984–0.999). The BDH also reduced hospitalization rates in children younger than 5 years, overall and for diarrhea. Conclusions A conditional cash transfer program such as BDH could contribute to the reduction of mortality due to causes related to poverty, such as malnutrition and respiratory infections. The coverage should be maintained -or increased in a period of economic crisis- and its implementation strengthened. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (10.1186/s12889-019-7457-y) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Background As an important marker for health equity and access, under-five mortality (UFM) is a primary measure for socioeconomic development. The importance of reducing UFM has been further emphasized in an ambitious target under Sustainable Development Goals. The factors influencing UFM are not adequately understood in Bhutan. Methods The most recent dataset of the Bhutan National Health Survey (BNHS) 2012 was used in this study. Multiple logistic regression analysis using a backwards elimination approach was performed to identify significant factors influencing UFM. All statistical analyses were adjusted for the complex study design due to the multistage stratified cluster sampling used in BNHS. Results Bhutan’s UFM rate was 37 per 1000 live births. The weighted mean age of the children was 7.3 years (SD: 1.53; range: 3–12). Mother’s age, household size, access to electricity and sanitation, residential region, and parity were the key factors associated with UFM. The UFM risk was significantly lower in children born to mothers aged 36–40 years, 41–45 years, and > 45 years when compared to that in children born to mothers aged 5 members. Children born in households without electricity and safe sanitation had a significantly higher risk of death, by 81 and 49% respectively. Relative to those born in the west, children born in the central and eastern regions were 1.72 (95% CI: 1.07–2.77) and 2.09 (95% CI: 1.46–2.99) times more likely to die, respectively. Children born to mothers who gave birth to > 2 children were significantly more likely to die than their counterparts. Conclusion These findings suggest that younger mother’s age, the higher number of births and being born in the central and eastern regions are associated with a higher UFM risk, whereas a larger household size and access to electricity and safe sanitation are key factors associated with lower UFM risk in Bhutan. Women empowerment, health education and strategies promoting maternal and child health in rural areas need to be scaled-up. Additionally, socioeconomic development programs should seek to reduce regional disparities. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (10.1186/s12889-018-6308-6) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Background Eliminating mother-to-child HIV-transmission (EMTCT) implies a case rate target of new pediatric HIV-infections Methods A cross-sectional household survey was conducted within the Manhiça Health Demographic Surveillance System in Mozambique (October 2017–April 2018). Live births in the previous 4 years were randomly selected, and mother/child HIV-status was ascertained through documentation or age-appropriate testing. Estimates on prevalence and transmission were adjusted by multiple imputation chained equation (MICE) for participants with missing HIV-status. Retrospective cumulative mortality rate and risk factors were estimate by Fine-Gray model. Results Among 5000 selected mother-child pairs, 3486 consented participate. Community HIV-prevalence estimate in mothers after MICE adjustment was 37.6% (95%CI:35.8–39.4%). Estimates doubled in adolescents aged Conclusions In Mozambique, SPECTRUM modeling estimated 15% MTCT, higher than our district-level community-based estimates of MTCT among HIV-exposed children. Community-based subnational assessments of progress towards EMTCT are needed to complement clinic-based and modeling estimates.

Background Ghana did not meet the Millennium Development Goal 4 of reducing child mortality by two-thirds and may not meet SDG (2030). There is a need to direct scarce resources to mitigate the impact of the most important risk factors influencing high neonatal deaths. This study applied both spatial and non-spatial regression models to explore the differential impact of environmental, maternal, and child associated risk factors on neonatal deaths in Ghana. Methods The study relied on data from the Ghana Demographic and Health Surveys (GDHS) and the Ghana Maternal Health Survey (GMHS) conducted between 1998 and 2017 among 49,908 women of reproductive age and 31,367 children under five (GDHS-1998 = 3298, GDHS-2003 = 3844, GDHS-2008 = 2992, GDHS-2014 = 5884, GMHS-2017 = 15,349). Spatial Autoregressive Models that account for spatial autocorrelation in the data at the cluster-level and non-spatial statistical models with appropriate sampling weight adjustment were used to study factors associated with neonatal deaths, and a p-value less than 0.05 was considered statistically significant. Results Population density, multiple births, smaller household sizes, high parity, and low birth weight significantly increased the risk of neonatal deaths over the years. Among mothers who had multiple births, the risk of having neonatal deaths was approximately four times as high as the risk of neonatal deaths among mothers who had only single birth [aRR = 3.42, 95% CI: 1.63–7.17, p p p Conclusion Neonatal mortality in Ghana remains relatively high, and the factors that predisposed children to neonatal death were birth size that were perceived to be small, low birth weight, higher parity, and multiple births. Improving pregnant women’s nutritional patterns and providing special support to women who have multiple deliveries will reduce neonatal mortality in Ghana.

Background The Service Availability and Readiness Assessment surveys generate data on the readiness of health facility services. We constructed a readiness index related to malaria services and determined the association between health facility malaria readiness and malaria mortality in children under the age of 5 years in Burkina Faso. Methods Data on inpatients visits and malaria-related deaths in under 5-year-old children were extracted from the national Health Management Information System in Burkina Faso. Bayesian geostatistical models with variable selection were fitted to malaria mortality data. The most important facility readiness indicators related to general and malaria-specific services were determined. Multiple correspondence analysis (MCA) was employed to construct a composite facility readiness score based on multiple factorial axes. The analysis was carried out separately for 112 medical centres and 546 peripheral health centres. Results Malaria mortality rate in medical centres was 4.8 times higher than that of peripheral health centres (3.5% vs. 0.7%, p Conclusion Performant health services in Burkina Faso are associated with lower malaria mortality rates. Health system readiness should be strengthened in the regions of Sahel, Sud-Ouest and Boucle du Mouhoun. Emphasis should be placed on improving the management of essential medicines and to reducing delays of emergency transportation between the different levels of the health system.

Background Child survival is a major concern in Nigeria, as it contributes 13% of the global under-five mortalities. Although studies have examined the determinants of under-five mortality in Nigeria, the comparative roles of social determinants of health at the different stages of early childhood development have not been concurrently investigated. This study, therefore, aimed to identify the social determinants of age-specific childhood (0–59 months) mortalities, which are disaggregated into neonatal mortality (0–27 days), post-neonatal mortality (1–11 months) and child mortality (12–59 months), and estimate the within-and between-community variations of mortality among under-five children in Nigeria. This study provides evidence to guide stakeholders in planning for effective child survival strategies in the Nigerian communities during the Sustainable Development Goals era. Methods Using the 2016/2017 Nigeria Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey, we performed multilevel multinomial logistic regression analysis on data of a nationally representative sample of 29,786 (weighted = 30,960) live births delivered 5 years before the survey to 18,497 women aged 15–49 years and nested within 16,151 households and 2227 communities. Results Determinants of under-five mortality differ across the neonatal, post-neonatal and toddler/pre-school stages in Nigeria. Unexpectedly, attendance of skilled health providers during delivery was associated with an increased neonatal mortality risk, although its effect disappeared during post-neonatal and toddler/pre-school stages. Also, our study found maternal-level factors such as maternal education, contraceptive use, maternal wealth index, parity, death of previous children, and quality of perinatal care accounted for high variation (39%) in childhood mortalities across the communities. The inclusion of other compositional and contextual factors had no significant additional effect on childhood mortality risks across the communities. Conclusion This study reinforces the importance of maternal-level factors in reducing childhood mortality, independent of the child, household, and community-level characteristics in the Nigerian communities. To tackle childhood mortalities in the communities, government-led strategies should prioritize implementation of community-based and community-specific interventions aimed at improving socioeconomic conditions of women. Training and continuous mentoring with adequate supervision of skilled health workers must be ensured to improve the quality of perinatal care in Nigeria.

Background Globally, child mortality rate has remained high over the years, but the figure can be reduced through proper implementation of spatially-targeted public health policies. Due to its alarming rate in comparison to North American standards, child mortality is particularly a health concern in Mexico. Despite this fact, there remains a dearth of studies that address its spatio-temporal identification in the country. The aims of this study are i) to model the evolution of child mortality risk at the municipality level in Greater Mexico City, (ii) to identify municipalities with high, medium, and low risk over time, and (iii) using municipality trends, to ascertain potential high-risk municipalities. Methods In order to control for the space-time patterns of data, the study performs a Bayesian spatio-temporal analysis. This methodology permits the modelling of the geographical variation of child mortality risk across municipalities, within the studied time span. Results The analysis shows that most of the high-risk municipalities were in the east, along with a few in the north and west areas of Greater Mexico City. In some of them, it is possible to distinguish an increasing trend in child mortality risk. The outcomes highlight municipalities currently presenting a medium risk but liable to become high risk, given their trend, after the studied period. Finally, the likelihood of child mortality risk illustrates an overall decreasing tendency throughout the 7-year studied period. Conclusions The identification of high-risk municipalities and risk trends may provide a useful input for policymakers seeking to reduce the incidence of child mortality. The results provide evidence that supports the use of geographical targeting in policy interventions.

Background Globally, neonatal and child mortality remains still high. Under-five mortality accounts for four-fifth of child and young adolescent deaths. In Ethiopia, though there has been a remarkable progress over the past years, under-five mortality is still high. Evidence from population-based longitudinal studies on under-five mortality is limited. Thus, this study aims to investigate the magnitude, trend, and causes of under-five mortality in the Kilite-Awlaelo Health Demographic Surveillance System, Northern Ethiopia. Methods Kilite-Awlaelo health and demographic surveillance system was established in 2009 in the northern part of Ethiopia. Population-based longitudinal study design was carried out through extracting data for nine consecutive years (2009–2017). After smoothing the data revealed a visually decreasing trend. Linear, quadratic, exponential, and autoregressive time-series models were checked. Accordingly, the exponential trend model provided the best fit with the lowest standard error of estimate, lowest sum square error and highest adjusted R2 value. Cause-specific mortality was determined by cross tabulating cause of death with specific age death. Results The overall under-five mortality rate was 35.62 per 1000 livebirths. The under-five mortality rate of rural and urban residents was 37.58 and 12.99 deaths per 1000 livebirths respectively. The exponential trend model showed the under-five mortality rate was declining exponentially. Bacterial sepsis 67(20.6%), prematurity 37(11.08%), intestinal infection disease 30(8.98%), acute lower respiratory infections 26(7.78%), and birth asphyxia 24(7.19%) were the major causes of under-five mortality. Conclusion The overall under-five mortality rate for the surveillance period was comparatively lower. A statistically significant difference in under-five mortality rate was observed between urban and rural residents. A statistically significant declining trend in the under-five mortality rate was observed. Bacterial sepsis, prematurity, intestinal infection disease, acute lower respiratory infections, and birth asphyxia were the major causes of under-five mortality. We recommend the huge discrepancy in under-five mortality rate between urban and rural dwellers could be narrowed to some level by increasing healthcare access for rural residents.

BackgroundThis study aims to assess the interactive effects of Brazilian public interventions, environmental health programs (access to water, sanitation and solid waste collection) and a Conditional Cash Transfer Program (PBF), on the mortality reduction due to diarrhea and malnutrition among children under 5 years old.MethodsThe study design is ecological, with longitudinal analysis in a balanced panel. The period covered is 2006 to 2016, including 3467 municipalities from all regions of the country, which resulted in 38,137 observations. The generalized linear models were adjusted considering the Negative Binomial (NB) distribution for the number of deaths due to malnutrition and diarrhea, with fixed effects. NB models with and without zero-inflation were assessed. Subsequent interaction models were applied to assess the combined effects of the two public policies.ResultsIn relation to the decline of mortality rates due to diarrhea in the municipalities, positive effect modification were observed in the presence of: high coverage of the target population by the PBF and access to water, 0.54 (0.28–1.04) / 0.55 (0.29–1.04); high coverage by the total population by the PBF and access to water, 0.97 (0.95–1.00) and high coverage by the total population by the PBF and access to sanitation, 0.98 (0.97–1.00). Decline on diarrhea mortality was also observed in the joint presence of high coverage of solid waste collection and access to water, categories 1 (> 60% ≤85%): 0.98 (0.96–1.00), 0.98 (0.97–1, 00) and 2 (> 85% ≤ 100%): 0.97 (0.95–0.98), 0.97 (0.95–0.99). Negative effect modification were observed for mortality due to malnutrition in the presence of simultaneous high coverage of the total population by the PBF and access to sanitation categories 1 (≥ 20 ConclusionImplementation of environmental health services and the coverage expansion by the PBF may enhance the prevention of early deaths in children under 5 years old due to diarrhea, a poverty related disease.

Background Improving the coverage of antenatal care is regarded as an important strategy to reduce the risks of maternal and child mortality in low income settings like Gambia. Nonetheless, a large number of countries in Africa, including Gambia, are struggling to attain an optimum level of healthcare utilization among pregnant women. The role of socioeconomic inequalities in maternal healthcare uptake has received little attention in Gambia. To address this evidence gap, the present study analyses nationally representative data to explore the socioeconomic inequalities in the use of maternal healthcare. Methods Data on women aged 15–49 years (n = 5351) were extracted from the latest round of Gambia Demographic and Health Survey in 2013 for this study. The outcome measures were early and adequate antenatal visit and HIV tests during the last pregnancy. Data were analyzed using descriptive and multivariate regression methods. Socioeconomic status was assessed through the women’s education, type of employment, and household wealth quintile. Results From the total of 5351 participants included in the study, 38.7 and 78.8% of the women had early and adequate ANC visits respectively with a 65.4% HIV test coverage during ANC visits. The odds of early [OR = 1.30, 95% confidence interval (CI) =1.06, 1.59] and adequate [OR = 1.45, 95%CI = 1.15, 1.82] ANC visits were higher in the rural areas compared with urban. Women with secondary [OR = 1.24, 95%CI = 1.04, 1.48] and higher education [OR = 1.80, 95%CI = 1.20, 2.70] had higher odds of making early ANC visits. Women from richest wealth quintile households had significantly higher odds of having early [OR = 1.49, 95%CI = 1.14, 1.95] and adequate ANC visits [OR = 2.06, 95%CI = 1.48, 2.87], but not of having HIV tests. Having access to electronic media showed a positive association with adequate ANC visits [OR = 1.32, 95%CI = 1.08, 1.62] and with taking HIV test during ANC [OR = 1.48, 95%CI = 1.21, 1.80]. A fewer odds of having unintended child was associated with early ANC visit [OR = 0.70, 95%CI = 0.59, 0.84], but positively associated with taking HIV test [OR = 1.75, 95%CI = 1.42, 2.15]. Conclusion A large proportion of women in Gambia were not using antenatal care and HIV tests during pregnancy. There are important sociodemographic differences in using maternal healthcare services such as HIV testing during pregnancy. This calls for strategic direction to promote the utilization of these services.

Background This study analyzed the trends and seasonality in mortality among children aged 0–14 years in Guangzhou, China during 2008–2018. Understanding the epidemiology of this public health problem can guide policy development for children mortality prevention. Methods A population-based epidemiological retrospective study was conducted. Seven thousand two hundred sixty-five individual data of children mortality were obtained from the Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). The Poisson regression was used to quantify the annual average reduction rate and the difference in mortality rate between sex and age groups. Incidence ratio with 95% confidence interval (CI) was estimated to determine the temperaol variations in mortality by month, season, school term, day of the week and between holidays and other days. Results Between 2008 and 2018, the children mortality rate in Guangzhou decreased from 54.0 to 34.3 per 100,000 children, with an annual reduction rate of 4.6% (95% CI: 1.1%–8.1%), especially the under-5 mortality rate decreased by 8.3% (95% CI: 4.8%–11.6%) per year. Decline trends varied by causes of death, even with an upward trend for the mortality of asphyxia and neurological diseases. The risk of death among males children was 1.33 times (95% CI: 1.20–1.47) of that of females. The distribution of causes of death differed by age group. Maternal and perinatal, congenital and pneumonia were the top three causes of death in infants and cancer accounted for 17% of deaths in children aged 1–14 years. Moreover, the injury-related mortality showed significant temporal variations with higher risk during the weekend. And there was a summer peak for drowning and a winter peak for asphyxia. Conclusions Guangzhou has made considerable progress in reducing mortality over the last decade. The findings of characteristics of children mortality would provide important information for the development and implementation of integrated interventions targeted specific age groups and causes of death.

Background Despite the almost universal adoption of Integrated Management of Childhood Illness (IMCI) guidelines for the diagnosis and treatment of sick children under the age of five in low- and middle-income countries, child mortality remains high in many settings. One possible explanation of the continued high mortality burden is lack of compliance with diagnostic and treatment protocols. We test this hypothesis in a sample of children with severe illness in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). Methods One thousand one hundred eighty under-five clinical visits were observed across a regionally representative sample of 321 facilities in the DRC. Based on a detailed list of disease symptoms observed, patients with severe febrile disease (including malaria), severe pneumonia, and severe dehydration were identified. For all three disease categories, treatments were then compared to recommended case management following IMCI guidelines. Results Out of 1180 under-five consultations observed, 332 patients (28%) had signs of severe febrile disease, 189 patients (16%) had signs of severe pneumonia, and 19 patients (2%) had signs of severe dehydration. Overall, providers gave the IMCI-recommended treatment in 42% of cases of these three severe diseases. Less than 15% of children with severe disease were recommended to receive in-patient care either in the facility they visited or in a higher-level facility. Conclusions These results suggest that adherence to IMCI protocols for severe disease remains remarkably low in the DRC. There is a critical need to identify and implement effective approaches for improving the quality of care for severely ill children in settings with high child mortality.

Child marriage is a human rights violation disproportionately affecting girls in lower- and middle-income countries and has serious public health implications. In Ghana, one in five girls marry before their 18th birthday and one in 20 girls is married before her 15th birthday. This paper uses a unique dataset from Northern Ghana to examine the association between child marriage and adverse outcomes for women among a uniquely vulnerable population. Baseline data from on ongoing impact evaluation of a government-run cash transfer programme was used. The sample consisted of 1349 ever-married women aged 20–29 years from 2497 households in the Northern and Upper East regions of Ghana. We estimated a series of ordinary least squares (OLS) and logistic regression models to examine associations of child marriage with health, fertility, contraception, child mortality, social support, stress and agency outcomes among women, controlling for individual characteristics and household-level factors. Child marriage in this sample was associated with increased odds of poorer health, as measured by difficulties in daily activities (OR = 2.08; CI 1.28–3.38 among women 20–24 years and OR = 1.58; CI 1.19–2.12 among women 20–29 years), increased odds of child mortality among first-born children (OR = 2.03; CI 1.09–3.77 among women 20–24 years) and lower odds of believing that one’s life is determined by their own actions (OR = 0.42; CI 0.25–0.72 among women 20–24 years and OR = 0.54; CI 0.39–0.75 among women 20–29 years). Conversely, child marriage was associated with lower levels of reported stress (regression coefficient = − 1.18; CI -1.84–-0.51 among women 20–29 years). Child marriage is common in Northern Ghana and is associated with poor health, increased child mortality, and low agency among women in this sample of extremely poor households. While not much is known about effective measures to combat child marriage in the context of Ghana, programmes that address key drivers of early marriage such as economic insecurity and school enrolment at the secondary level, should be examined with respect to their effectiveness at reducing early marriage. Trial registration: Registered in the Registry for International Development Impact Evaluations (RIDIE) on 01 July 2015, with number RIDIE-STUDY-ID- 55942496d53af .

Background Mali is one of four countries implementing a National Evaluation Platform (NEP) to build local capacity to answer evaluation questions for maternal, newborn, child health and nutrition (MNCH&N). In 2014-15, NEP-Mali addressed questions about the potential impact of Mali’s MNCH&N plans and strategies, and identified priority interventions to achieve targeted mortality reductions. Methods The NEP-Mali team modeled the potential impact of three intervention packages in the Lives Saved Tool (LiST) from 2014 to 2023. One projection included the interventions and targets from Mali’s ten-year health strategy (PDDSS) for 2014-2023, and two others modeled intervention packages that included scale up of antenatal, intrapartum, and curative interventions, as well as reductions in stunting and wasting. We modeled the change in maternal, newborn and under-five mortality rates under these three projections, as well as the number of lives saved, overall and by intervention. Results If Mali were to achieve the MNCH&N coverage targets from its health strategy, under-5 mortality would be reduced from 121 per 1000 live births to 93 per 1000, far from the target of 69 deaths per 1000. Projections 1 and 2 produced estimated mortality reductions from 121 deaths per 1000 to 70 and 68 deaths per 1000, respectively. With respect to neonatal mortality, the mortality rate would be reduced from 39 to 32 deaths per 1000 live births under the current health strategy, and to 25 per 1000 under projections 1 and 2. Conclusions This study revealed that achieving the coverage targets for the MNCH&N interventions in the 2014-23 PDDSS would likely not allow Mali to achieve its mortality targets. The NEP-Mali team was able to identify two packages of MNCH&N interventions (and targets) that achieved under-5 and neonatal mortality rates at, or very near, the PDDSS targets. The Malian Ministry of Health and Public Hygiene is using these results to revise its plans and strategies. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (10.1186/s12889-017-4749-y) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Background Under-five mortality is still a major health issue in many developing countries like Tanzania. To achieve the Sustainable Development Goal target of ending preventable child deaths in Tanzania, a detailed understanding of the risk factors for under-five deaths is essential to guide targeted interventions. This study aimed to investigate trends and determinants of neonatal, post-neonatal, infant, child and under-five mortalities in Tanzania from 2004 to 2016. Methods The study used combined data from the 2004–2005, 2010 and 2015–2016 Tanzania Demographic and Health Surveys, with a sample of 25,951 singletons live births and 1585 under-five deaths. We calculated age-specific mortality rates, followed by an assessment of trends and determinants (community, socioeconomic, individual and health service) of neonatal, postneonatal, infant, child and under-five mortalities in Cox regression models. The models adjusted for potential confounders, clustering and sampling weights. Results Between 2004 and 2016, we found that neonatal mortality rate remained unchanged, while postneonatal mortality and child mortality rates have halved in Tanzania. Infant mortality and under-five mortality rates have also declined. Mothers who gave births through caesarean section, younger mothers ( Conclusion Our study suggests that there was increased survival of children under-5 years in Tanzania driven by significant improvements in postneonatal, infant and child survival rates. However, there remains unfinished work in ending preventable child deaths in Tanzania.

Background Childhood morbidities are a major cause of mortality of children in the developing countries particularly in Ethiopia. Regardless of the noticeable improvement in the reduction of under-five death in Ethiopia, childhood diarrhea and fever are still the leading cause of death. In Ethiopia, the burden of child mortality is alarming and calls for determined efforts in combating such health problems. Therefore, this study aimed to investigate the risk factors for childhood morbidity specifically for diarrhea and fever. Methods To gain insight into children’s health issues, the 2016 Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey data were used. Among the marginal models, alternating logistic regression that is an extension of the generalized estimating equation model was used to investigate the risk factors of childhood morbidity explicitly for diarrhea and fever. Results The results show that the child’s sex, child’s age, anemia level, husband education level, mother’s work status, mother’s marital status, breastfeeding status and region are all chosen significant risk factors related with childhood diarrhea disease and fever disease. Conclusion The study indicated that male children, 0–11 months aged children, 12–23 months aged children, anemic children, husband with a lower education, mothers paid employment, non-breastfed children, regions of Amhara, Afar, Dire Dawa, Benishangul, Gambela, Oromia, SNNPR, Somali and Tigray were significantly associated with higher odds of morbidity in Ethiopia. Therefore, there is a need for children morbidity interventions intended to improve child health outcomes in the country.

Background Child mortality has been reduced by more than 50 % over the past 30 years. A range of secular economic and social developments have been considered to explain this phenomenon. In this paper, we examine the association between ratification of the Convention on the Rights of the Child (CRC), which was specifically put in place to ensure the well-being of children, and declines in child mortality. Methods Data come from three sources: the United Nations Treaty Series Database, the World Bank World Development Indicators database and, the Polity IV database. Because CRC was widely ratified, leaving few control cases, we used interrupted times series analyses, which uses the trend in the health outcome before policy exposure to mathematically determine what the trend in the health outcome would have been after the policy exposure, if it had continued ‘as is’ – meaning, if the policy exposure had not occurred. Results CRC ratification was associated with declining child mortality. CRC ratification was associated with a significant change in shorter-term child mortality trends in all groups except high-income, non-democratic countries and low-imcome democratic countries. CRC ratification was associated with long-term child mortality trends in all groups except middle-income, non-democratic countries. Conclusions Child mortality rates would likely have declined even in the absence of CRC ratification, but CRC is associated with a larger decline. Our findings provide a way to assess the effects of widely-held societal norms on health and demonstrate the moderating effects of democracy and income level.

Background Emergency care is among the weakest parts of health systems in low-income countries with both quality and accessibility constraints. Previous studies estimated accessibility to surgical or emergency care based on population travel times to nearest hospital with no assessment of hospital readiness to provide such care. We analysed a Malawi national facility census with comprehensive inventory audits and geocoded facility locations to identify hospitals equipped to provide basic paediatric emergency care with estimated travel times to these hospitals from non-equipped facilities and in relation to Malawi’s population distribution. Methods We analysed a Malawi national facility census in 2013–2014 to identify hospitals equipped to manage critically ill children according to an extended version of WHO Emergency Triage, Assessment and Treatment (ETAT) guidelines. These guidelines include 25 components including staff, transport, equipment, diagnostics, medications, fluids, feeds and consumables that defined an emergency-equipped hospital in our study. We estimated travel times to emergency-equipped hospitals from non-equipped facilities and relative to population distributions using geocoded facility locations and an established accessibility mapping approach using global road network datasets from OpenStreetMap and Google. Results Four (3.5, 95% CI: 1.3–8.9) of 116 Malawi hospitals were emergency-equipped. Least available items were nasogastric tubes in 34.5% of hospitals (95% CI: 26.4–43.6), blood typing services (40.4, 95% CI: 31.9–49.6), micro nebulizers (50.9, 95% CI: 41.9–60.0), and radiology (54.2, 95% CI: 45.1–63.0). Nationally, the median travel time from non-equipped facilities to the nearest emergency-equipped hospital was 73 min (95% CI: 67–77) ranging 1–507 min. Approximately one-quarter (27%) of Malawians lived over 120 min from an emergency-equipped hospital with significantly better accessibility in Central than North and South regions (16% vs. 38 and 35%, p Conclusions There are unacceptable deficiencies in accessibility of basic paediatric emergency care in Malawi. Reliable supply chains for essential drugs and commodities are needed, particularly nasogastric tubes, asthma drugs and blood, along with improved capacity for time-sensitive referral. Further child mortality reductions will require substantial investments to expand basic paediatric emergency care into all Malawi hospitals for better managing critically ill children at highest mortality risk.

Background\ud \ud Understanding urban-rural gap in childhood survival is essential for health care interventions and to explain disparities in the determinants of Under-5 mortality. There is dearth of information about the factors explaining differentials in urban-rural Under-5 mortality especially in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). In this study, we sought to quantify the contributions of bio-demographic, socioeconomic and proximate factors in explaining the urban-rural gap in Under-5 mortality in SSA.\ud \ud Methods\ud \ud This study utilized secondary data from Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) in 35 sub-Saharan countries conducted between 2006 and 2016. Child (aged 0 and 59 months) death was the outcome variable in this study. Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition was used to decipher urban-rural gap in the factors of Under-5 mortality.\ud \ud Results\ud \ud Significant urban-rural differentials were observed in Under-5 mortality across bio-demographic, socioeconomic and proximate factors. In the decomposition model, about 44.27% of urban group and 74.71% of rural group had Under-5 mortality in sub-Saharan countries. Maternal age, education, use of newspaper, TV, wealth index, total children ever born, size of baby and age at first birth contributed towards explaining urban-rural gap inUnder-5 mortality.\ud \ud Conclusion\ud \ud These findings could be contributory to health care system improvement and socioeconomic developmental plans to address under-5 mortality in SSA. Strengthening maternal and child health (MCH) programmes, specifically in rural areas and improving health care services would help to ensure overall child survival.

Background Globally, millions of children aged below 5 years die every year and some of these deaths could have been prevented. Though a global problem, under-five mortality is also a major public health problem in Ghana with a rate of 60 deaths per 1000 live births. Identification of drivers of mortality among children aged below 5 years is an important problem that needs to be addressed because it could help inform health policy and intervention strategies aimed at achieving the United Nations SDG Goal 3 target 2. The aim of this study is to develop a predictive model and to identify determinants of under-five mortality. Method The 2014 Ghana Demographic and Health Survey data was used in this study. Analyses were conducted on 5884 children. The outcome variable is child survival status (alive or dead). Single level binary logistic and multilevel logistic regression models were employed to investigate determinants of under-five mortality. The fit of the model was checked using Variance Inflation Factor and Likelihood Ratio tests. The Receiver Operating Characteristic curve was used to assess the predictive ability of the models. A p-value