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Background: Ethnicity is known to be an important correlate of health outcomes, particularly during the COVID-19 pandemic, where some ethnic groups were shown to be at higher risk of infection and adverse outcomes. The recording of patients' ethnic groups in primary care can support research and efforts to achieve equity in service provision and outcomes; however, the coding of ethnicity is known to present complex challenges. We therefore set out to describe ethnicity coding in detail with a view to supporting the use of this data in a wide range of settings, as part of wider efforts to robustly describe and define methods of using administrative data. Methods: We describe the completeness and consistency of primary care ethnicity recording in the OpenSAFELY-TPP database, containing linked primary care and hospital records in > 25 million patients in England. We also compared the ethnic breakdown in OpenSAFELY-TPP with that of the 2021 UK census. Results: 78.2% of patients registered in OpenSAFELY-TPP on 1 January 2022 had their ethnicity recorded in primary care records, rising to 92.5% when supplemented with hospital data. The completeness of ethnicity recording was higher for women than for men. The rate of primary care ethnicity recording ranged from 77% in the South East of England to 82.2% in the West Midlands. Ethnicity recording rates were higher in patients with chronic or other serious health conditions. For each of the five broad ethnicity groups, primary care recorded ethnicity was within 2.9 percentage points of the population rate as recorded in the 2021 Census for England as a whole. For patients with multiple ethnicity records, 98.7% of the latest recorded ethnicities matched the most frequently coded ethnicity. Patients whose latest recorded ethnicity was categorised as Other were most likely to have a discordant ethnicity recording (32.2%). Conclusions: Primary care ethnicity data in OpenSAFELY is present for over three quarters of all patients, and combined with data from other sources can achieve a high level of completeness. The overall distribution of ethnicities across all English OpenSAFELY-TPP practices was similar to the 2021 Census, with some regional variation. This report identifies the best available codelist for use in OpenSAFELY and similar electronic health record data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Healthy Start (HS) is a government scheme in England, Wales and Northern Ireland that offers a financial payment card and free vitamins to families experiencing low income. Pregnant women and families with children < 4 years can use the HS card to buy fruit, vegetables, cow's milk, infant formula and pulses. HS was fully digitalised in March 2022. While digitalisation has improved the user experience for many families, in the context of the cost-of-living crisis and increasing dietary inequalities, it is important to understand why HS is not reaching more families. This study aimed to (i) assess the perceptions and experiences of HS from stakeholders across the system including those who promote, implement and are eligible for HS, and (ii) identify recommendations to improve the scheme's effectiveness and uptake. Methods: The study design was a post-implementation rapid qualitative evaluation using stakeholder interviews. Data were collected between January and June 2023 via semi‐structured interviews (50% online; 50% in person) with 112 stakeholders, including parents (n = 59), non‐government organisations (n = 13), retailers (n = 11) and health and community professionals (n = 29) at national and local levels. Findings were confirmed by a sub-sample of participants. Results: Six core themes cut across stakeholders' perceptions and experiences, and stakeholders collectively outlined seven recommendations they felt could be acted upon to maximise uptake and efficiency of HS, with actions at both national and local levels. A novel finding from this study is that raising awareness about HS alone is unlikely to result automatically or universally in higher uptake rate. Recommendations include: continuing to provide this scheme that is universally valued; the need for many families to be provided with a helping hand to successfully complete the application; reframing of the scheme as a child's right to food and development to ensure inclusivity; improved leadership, coordination and accountability at both national and local levels. Conclusions: HS provides benefits for child development and family wellbeing. The study's recommendations should be actioned by national and local governments to enable all families eligible for the scheme to benefit from this nutritional safety net. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Defining healthcare facility catchment areas is a key step in predicting future healthcare demand in epidemic settings. Forecasts of hospitalisations can be informed by leading indicators measured at the community level. However, this relies on the definition of so-called catchment areas or the geographies whose populations make up the patients admitted to a given hospital, which are often not well-defined. Little work has been done to quantify the impact of hospital catchment area definitions on healthcare demand forecasting. Methods: We made forecasts of local-level hospital admissions using a scaled convolution of local cases (as defined by the hospital catchment area) and delay distribution. Hospital catchment area definitions were derived from either simple heuristics (in which people are admitted to their nearest hospital or any nearby hospital) or historical admissions data (all emergency or elective admissions in 2019, or COVID-19 admissions), plus a marginal baseline definition based on the distribution of all hospital admissions. We evaluated predictive performance using each hospital catchment area definition using the weighted interval score and considered how this changed by the length of the predictive horizon, the date on which the forecast was made, and by location. We also considered the change, if any, in the relative performance of each definition in retrospective vs. real-time settings, or at different spatial scales. Results: The choice of hospital catchment area definition affected the accuracy of hospital admission forecasts. The definition based on COVID-19 admissions data resulted in the most accurate forecasts at both a 7- and 14-day horizon and was one of the top two best-performing definitions across forecast dates and locations. The "nearby" heuristic also performed well, but less consistently than the COVID-19 data definition. The marginal distribution baseline, which did not include any spatial information, was the lowest-ranked definition. The relative performance of the definitions was larger when using case forecasts compared to future observed cases. All results were consistent across spatial scales of the catchment area definitions. Conclusions: Using catchment area definitions derived from context-specific data can improve local-level hospital admission forecasts. Where context-specific data is not available, using catchment areas defined by carefully chosen heuristics is a sufficiently good substitute. There is clear value in understanding what drives local admissions patterns, and further research is needed to understand the impact of different catchment area definitions on forecast performance where case trends are more heterogeneous. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Temporary doctors, known as locums, are a key component of the medical workforce in the NHS but evidence on differences in quality and safety between locum and permanent doctors is limited. We aimed to examine differences in the clinical practice, and prescribing safety for locum and permanent doctors working in primary care in England. Methods: We accessed electronic health care records (EHRs) for 3.5 million patients from the CPRD GOLD database with linkage to Hospital Episode Statistics from 1st April 2010 to 31st March 2022. We used multi-level mixed effects logistic regression to compare consultations with locum and permanent GPs for several patient outcomes including general practice revisits; prescribing of antibiotics; strong opioids; hypnotics; A&E visits; emergency hospital admissions; admissions for ambulatory care sensitive conditions; test ordering; referrals; and prescribing safety indicators while controlling for patient and practice characteristics. Results: Consultations with locum GPs were 22% more likely to involve a prescription for an antibiotic (OR = 1.22 (1.21 to 1.22)), 8% more likely to involve a prescription for a strong opioid (OR = 1.08 (1.06 to 1.09)), 4% more likely to be followed by an A&E visit on the same day (OR = 1.04 (1.01 to 1.08)) and 5% more likely to be followed by an A&E visit within 1 to 7 days (OR = 1.05 (1.02 to 1.08)). Consultations with a locum were 12% less likely to lead to a practice revisit within 7 days (OR = 0.88 (0.87 to 0.88)), 4% less likely to involve a prescription for a hypnotic (OR = 0.96 (0.94 to 0.98)), 15% less likely to involve a referral (OR = 0.85 (0.84 to 0.86)) and 19% less likely to involve a test (OR = 0.81 (0.80 to 0.82)). We found no evidence that emergency admissions, ACSC admissions and eight out of the eleven prescribing safety indicators were different if patients were seen by a locum or a permanent GP. Conclusions: Despite existing concerns, the clinical practice and performance of locum GPs did not appear to be systematically different from that of permanent GPs. The practice and performance of both locum and permanent GPs is likely shaped by the organisational setting and systems within which they work. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Social prescribing is a way of addressing the 'non-medical' needs (e.g. loneliness, debt, housing problems) that can affect people's health and well-being. Connector schemes (e.g. delivered by care navigators or link workers) have become a key component to social prescribing's delivery. Those in this role support patients by either (a) signposting them to relevant local assets (e.g. groups, organisations, charities, activities, events) or (b) taking time to assist them in identifying and prioritising their 'non-medical' needs and connecting them to relevant local assets. To understand how such connector schemes work, for whom, why and in what circumstances, we conducted a realist review.Method: A search of electronic databases was supplemented with Google alerts and reference checking to locate grey literature. In addition, we sent a Freedom of Information request to all Clinical Commissioning Groups in England to identify any further evaluations of social prescribing connector schemes. Included studies were from the UK and focused on connector schemes for adult patients (18+ years) related to primary care.Results: Our searches resulted in 118 included documents, from which data were extracted to produce context-mechanism-outcome configurations (CMOCs). These CMOCs underpinned our emerging programme theory that centred on the essential role of 'buy-in' and connections. This was refined further by turning to existing theories on (a) social capital and (b) patient activation.Conclusion: Our realist review highlights how connector roles, especially link workers, represent a vehicle for accruing social capital (e.g. trust, sense of belonging, practical support). We propose that this then gives patients the confidence, motivation, connections, knowledge and skills to manage their own well-being, thereby reducing their reliance on GPs. We also emphasise within the programme theory situations that could result in unintended consequences (e.g. increased demand on GPs). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Despite their widespread use, the impact of commissioners' policies for body mass index (BMI) for access to elective surgery is not clear. Policy use varies by locality, and there are concerns that these policies may worsen health inequalities. The aim of this study was to assess the impact of policies for BMI on access to hip replacement surgery in England. Methods: A natural experimental study using interrupted time series and difference-in-differences analysis. We used National Joint Registry data for 480,364 patients who had primary hip replacement surgery in England between January 2009 and December 2019. Clinical commissioning group policies introduced before June 2018 to alter access to hip replacement for patients with overweight or obesity were considered the intervention. The main outcome measures were rate of surgery and patient demographics (BMI, index of multiple deprivation, independently funded surgery) over time. Results: Commissioning localities which introduced a policy had higher surgery rates at baseline than those which did not. Rates of surgery fell after policy introduction, whereas rates rose in localities with no policy. 'Strict' policies mandating a BMI threshold for access to surgery were associated with the sharpest fall in rates (trend change of − 1.39 operations per 100,000 population aged 40 + per quarter-year, 95% confidence interval − 1.81 to − 0.97, P < 0.001). Localities with BMI policies have higher proportions of independently funded surgery and more affluent patients receiving surgery, indicating increasing health inequalities. Policies enforcing extra waiting time before surgery were associated with worsening mean pre-operative symptom scores and rising obesity. Conclusions: Commissioners and policymakers should be aware of the counterproductive effects of BMI policies on patient outcomes and inequalities. We recommend that BMI policies involving extra waiting time or mandatory BMI thresholds are no longer used to reduce access to hip replacement surgery. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The current food system in England promotes a population diet that is high in fat, sugar and salt (HFSS). To address this, the UK government has implemented legislation to restrict the promotion of HFSS products in prominent locations (e.g. store entrances, checkouts) in qualifying retailers since October 2022. This study investigated the perceived impact of the legislation for affected stakeholders. Methods: A pre-implementation rapid qualitative evaluation of stakeholder interviews. One hundred eight UK stakeholders participated in the study including 34 consumers, 24 manufacturers and retailers, 22 local authority enforcement officers and 28 academic and charitable health representatives. A participatory conference was used to enable policy recommendations to be confirmed by stakeholders. Results: Stakeholders perceived the legislation to be a 'good first step' towards improving population diet but recognised this needed to be considered amongst a range of long-term obesity policies. Areas of further support were identified and these are presented as six recommendations for government to support the successful implementation of the legislation: (1) provide a free central HFSS calculator, (2) refine legislation to enhance intent and clarity, (3) conduct a robust evaluation to assess intended and unintended outcomes, (4) provide greater support for smaller businesses, (5) provide ring-fenced resources to local authorities and (6) create and communicate a long-term roadmap for food and health. Conclusions: This legislation has the potential to reduce impulse HFSS purchases and makes a solid start towards creating healthier retail outlets for consumers. Immediate government actions to create a freely accessible HFSS calculator, support smaller businesses and provide additional resources to local authorities would support successful implementation and enforcement. Independent evaluation of the implementation of the legislation will enable monitoring of potential unintended consequences identified in this study and support refinement of the legislation. A long-term roadmap is necessary to outline strategies to support equal access to healthier and sustainable food across the whole food system within the next 20–30 years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Heart failure (HF) is increasingly prevalent in the growing elderly population and commonly associated with cognitive impairment. We compared trends in place of death (PoD) of HF patients with/without comorbid dementia around the implementation period of the Mental Capacity Act (MCA) in October 2007, this legislation supporting patient-centred decision making for those with reduced agency. Methods: Analyses of death certification data for England between January 2001 and December 2018, describing the PoD and sociodemographic characteristics of all people ≥ 65 years registered with HF as the underlying cause of death, with/without a mention of comorbid dementia. We used modified Poisson regression with robust error variance to determine the prevalence ratio (PR) of the outcome in dying at home, in care homes or hospices compared to dying in hospital. Covariates included year of death, age, gender, marital status, comorbidity burden, index of multiple deprivation and urban/rural settings. Results: One hundred twenty thousand sixty-eight HF-related death records were included of which 8199 mentioned dementia as a contributory cause. The overall prevalence proportion of dementia was 6.8%, the trend significantly increasing from 5.6 to 8.0% pre- and post-MCA (Cochran-Armitage trend test p < 0.0001). Dementia was coded as unspecified (78.2%), Alzheimer's disease (13.5%) and vascular (8.3%). Demented decedents were commonly older, female, and with more comorbidities. Pre-MCA, PoD for non-demented HF patients was hospital 68.2%, care homes 20.2% and 10.7% dying at home. Corresponding figures for those with comorbid dementia were 47.6%, 48.0% and 4.2%, respectively. Following MCA enforcement, PoD for those without dementia shifted from hospital to home, 62.5% and 17.2%, respectively; PR: 1.026 [95%CI: 1.024–1.029]. While home deaths also rose to 10.0% for those with dementia, with hospital deaths increasing to 50.4%, this trend was insignificant, PR: 1.001 [0.988–1.015]. Care home deaths reduced for all, with/without dementia, PR: 0.959 [0.949–0.969] and PR: 0.996 [0.993–0.998], respectively. Hospice as PoD was rare for both groups with no appreciable change over the study period. Conclusions: Our analyses suggest the MCA did not materially affect the PoD of HF decedents with comorbid dementia, likely reflecting difficulties implementing this legislation in real-life clinical practice. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Predicting the likely size of future SARS-CoV-2 waves is necessary for public health planning. In England, voluntary "plan B" mitigation measures were introduced in December 2021 including increased home working and face coverings in shops but stopped short of restrictions on social contacts. The impact of voluntary risk mitigation behaviours on future SARS-CoV-2 burden is unknown. Methods: We developed a rapid online survey of risk mitigation behaviours ahead of the winter 2021 festive period and deployed in two longitudinal cohort studies in the UK (Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC) and TwinsUK/COVID Symptom Study (CSS) Biobank) in December 2021. Using an individual-based, probabilistic model of COVID-19 transmission between social contacts with SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant parameters and realistic vaccine coverage in England, we predicted the potential impact of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron wave in England in terms of the effective reproduction number and cumulative infections, hospital admissions and deaths. Using survey results, we estimated in real-time the impact of voluntary risk mitigation behaviours on the Omicron wave in England, if implemented for the entire epidemic wave. Results: Over 95% of survey respondents (NALSPAC = 2686 and NTwins = 6155) reported some risk mitigation behaviours, with vaccination and using home testing kits reported most frequently. Less than half of those respondents reported that their behaviour was due to "plan B". We estimate that without risk mitigation behaviours, the Omicron variant is consistent with an effective reproduction number between 2.5 and 3.5. Due to the reduced vaccine effectiveness against infection with the Omicron variant, our modelled estimates suggest that between 55% and 60% of the English population could be infected during the current wave, translating into between 12,000 and 46,000 cumulative deaths, depending on assumptions about severity and vaccine effectiveness. The actual number of deaths was 15,208 (26 November 2021–1 March 2022). We estimate that voluntary risk reduction measures could reduce the effective reproduction number to between 1.8 and 2.2 and reduce the cumulative number of deaths by up to 24%. Conclusions: Predicting future infection burden is affected by uncertainty in disease severity and vaccine effectiveness estimates. In addition to biological uncertainty, we show that voluntary measures substantially reduce the projected impact of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant but that voluntary measures alone would be unlikely to completely control transmission. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We would like to draw attention to evidence of substantial bias in the article published in this journal by Jack et al. (BMC Med 18:1-12, 2020). They provide an analysis of antidepressant prescribing to children and young people (CYP; ages 5 to 17) in primary care in England and reported that only 24.7% of CYP prescribed SSRIs for the first time were seen by a child and adolescent psychiatrist—contrary to national guidelines. We believe that their analysis is based on incomplete data that misses a large proportion of specialist mental health contacts. This is because the dataset Jack et al. used to capture specialist mental health contact—The Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) dataset—has poor coverage, as most CYP mental health services do not submit data. We demonstrate the level of underreporting with an analysis of events in a large primary care dataset where there has been a record of definite contact with CYP mental health services. We report that as many as three quarters of specialist CYP contacts with mental health specialists are missed in the HES dataset, indicating that the figure presented by Jack et al. is substantially wrong. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Children and young persons are known to have a high number of close interactions, often within the school environment, which can facilitate rapid spread of infection; yet for SARS-CoV-2, it is the elderly and vulnerable that suffer the greatest health burden. Vaccination, initially targeting the elderly and vulnerable before later expanding to the entire adult population, has been transformative in the control of SARS-CoV-2 in England. However, early concerns over adverse events and the lower risk associated with infection in younger individuals means that the expansion of the vaccine programme to those under 18 years of age needs to be rigorously and quantitatively assessed. Methods: Here, using a bespoke mathematical model matched to case and hospital data for England, we consider the potential impact of vaccinating 12–17 and 5–11-year-olds. This analysis is reported from an early model (generated in June 2021) that formed part of the evidence base for the decisions in England, and a later model (from November 2021) that benefits from a richer understanding of vaccine efficacy, greater knowledge of the Delta variant wave and uses data on the rate of vaccine administration. For both models, we consider the population wide impact of childhood vaccination as well as the specific impact on the age groups targeted for vaccination. Results: Projections from June suggested that an expansion of the vaccine programme to those 12–17 years old could generate substantial reductions in infection, hospital admission and deaths in the entire population, depending on population behaviour following the relaxation of control measures. The benefits within the 12–17-year-old cohort were less marked, saving between 660 and 1100 (95% PI (prediction interval) 280–2300) hospital admissions and between 22 and 38 (95% PI 9–91) deaths depending on assumed population behaviour. For the more recent model, the benefits within this age group are reduced, saving on average 630 (95% PI 300–1300) hospital admissions and 11 (95% PI 5–28) deaths for 80% vaccine uptake, while the benefits to the wider population represent a reduction of 8–10% in hospital admissions and deaths. The vaccination of 5–11-year-olds is projected to have a far smaller impact, in part due to the later roll-out of vaccines to this age group. Conclusions: Vaccination of 12–170-year-olds and 5–11-year-olds is projected to generate a reduction in infection, hospital admission and deaths for both the age groups involved and the population in general. For any decision involving childhood vaccination, these benefits needs to be balanced against potential adverse events from the vaccine, the operational constraints on delivery and the potential for diverting resources from other public health campaigns. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: People who use illicit opioids are more likely to be admitted to hospital than people of the same age in the general population. Many admissions end in discharge against medical advice, which is associated with readmission and all-cause mortality. Opioid withdrawal contributes to premature discharge. We sought to understand the barriers to timely provision of opioid substitution therapy (OST), which helps to prevent opioid withdrawal, in acute hospitals in England.Methods: We requested policies on substance dependence management from 135 National Health Service trusts, which manage acute hospitals in England, and conducted a document content analysis. Additionally, we reviewed an Omitted and Delayed Medicines Tool (ODMT), one resource used to inform critical medicine categorisation in England. We worked closely with people with lived experience of OST and/or illicit opioid use, informed by principles of community-based participatory research.Results: Eighty-six (64%) trusts provided 101 relevant policies. An additional 44 (33%) responded but could not provide relevant policies, and five (4%) did not send a definitive response. Policies illustrate procedural barriers to OST provision, including inconsistent application of national guidelines across trusts. Continuing community OST prescriptions for people admitted in the evening, night-time, or weekend was often precluded by requirements to confirm doses with organisations that were closed during these hours. 42/101 trusts (42%) required or recommended a urine drug test positive for OST medications or opioids prior to OST prescription. The language used in many policies was stigmatising and characterised people who use drugs as untrustworthy. OST was not specifically mentioned in the reviewed ODMT, with 'drugs used in substance dependence' collectively categorised as posing low risk if delayed and moderate risk if omitted.Conclusions: Many hospitals in England have policies that likely prevent timely and effective OST. This was underpinned by the 'low-risk' categorisation of OST delay in the ODMT. Delays to continuity of OST between community and hospital settings may contribute to inpatient opioid withdrawal and increase the risk of discharge against medical advice. Acute hospitals in England require standardised best practice policies that account for the needs of this patient group. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Forecasting healthcare demand is essential in epidemic settings, both to inform situational awareness and facilitate resource planning. Ideally, forecasts should be robust across time and locations. During the COVID-19 pandemic in England, it is an ongoing concern that demand for hospital care for COVID-19 patients in England will exceed available resources.Methods: We made weekly forecasts of daily COVID-19 hospital admissions for National Health Service (NHS) Trusts in England between August 2020 and April 2021 using three disease-agnostic forecasting models: a mean ensemble of autoregressive time series models, a linear regression model with 7-day-lagged local cases as a predictor, and a scaled convolution of local cases and a delay distribution. We compared their point and probabilistic accuracy to a mean-ensemble of them all and to a simple baseline model of no change from the last day of admissions. We measured predictive performance using the weighted interval score (WIS) and considered how this changed in different scenarios (the length of the predictive horizon, the date on which the forecast was made, and by location), as well as how much admissions forecasts improved when future cases were known.Results: All models outperformed the baseline in the majority of scenarios. Forecasting accuracy varied by forecast date and location, depending on the trajectory of the outbreak, and all individual models had instances where they were the top- or bottom-ranked model. Forecasts produced by the mean-ensemble were both the most accurate and most consistently accurate forecasts amongst all the models considered. Forecasting accuracy was improved when using future observed, rather than forecast, cases, especially at longer forecast horizons.Conclusions: Assuming no change in current admissions is rarely better than including at least a trend. Using confirmed COVID-19 cases as a predictor can improve admissions forecasts in some scenarios, but this is variable and depends on the ability to make consistently good case forecasts. However, ensemble forecasts can make forecasts that make consistently more accurate forecasts across time and locations. Given minimal requirements on data and computation, our admissions forecasting ensemble could be used to anticipate healthcare needs in future epidemic or pandemic settings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Heart failure (HF) is increasingly prevalent in the growing elderly population and commonly associated with cognitive impairment. We compared trends in place of death (PoD) of HF patients with/without comorbid dementia around the implementation period of the Mental Capacity Act (MCA) in October 2007, this legislation supporting patient-centred decision making for those with reduced agency.Methods: Analyses of death certification data for England between January 2001 and December 2018, describing the PoD and sociodemographic characteristics of all people ≥ 65 years registered with HF as the underlying cause of death, with/without a mention of comorbid dementia. We used modified Poisson regression with robust error variance to determine the prevalence ratio (PR) of the outcome in dying at home, in care homes or hospices compared to dying in hospital. Covariates included year of death, age, gender, marital status, comorbidity burden, index of multiple deprivation and urban/rural settings.Results: One hundred twenty thousand sixty-eight HF-related death records were included of which 8199 mentioned dementia as a contributory cause. The overall prevalence proportion of dementia was 6.8%, the trend significantly increasing from 5.6 to 8.0% pre- and post-MCA (Cochran-Armitage trend test p < 0.0001). Dementia was coded as unspecified (78.2%), Alzheimer's disease (13.5%) and vascular (8.3%). Demented decedents were commonly older, female, and with more comorbidities. Pre-MCA, PoD for non-demented HF patients was hospital 68.2%, care homes 20.2% and 10.7% dying at home. Corresponding figures for those with comorbid dementia were 47.6%, 48.0% and 4.2%, respectively. Following MCA enforcement, PoD for those without dementia shifted from hospital to home, 62.5% and 17.2%, respectively; PR: 1.026 [95%CI: 1.024-1.029]. While home deaths also rose to 10.0% for those with dementia, with hospital deaths increasing to 50.4%, this trend was insignificant, PR: 1.001 [0.988-1.015]. Care home deaths reduced for all, with/without dementia, PR: 0.959 [0.949-0.969] and PR: 0.996 [0.993-0.998], respectively. Hospice as PoD was rare for both groups with no appreciable change over the study period.Conclusions: Our analyses suggest the MCA did not materially affect the PoD of HF decedents with comorbid dementia, likely reflecting difficulties implementing this legislation in real-life clinical practice. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Schools were closed in England on 4 January 2021 as part of increased national restrictions to curb transmission of SARS-CoV-2. The UK government reopened schools on 8 March. Although there was evidence of lower individual-level transmission risk amongst children compared to adults, the combined effects of this with increased contact rates in school settings and the resulting impact on the overall transmission rate in the population were not clear.Methods: We measured social contacts of > 5000 participants weekly from March 2020, including periods when schools were both open and closed, amongst other restrictions. We combined these data with estimates of the susceptibility and infectiousness of children compared with adults to estimate the impact of reopening schools on the reproduction number.Results: Our analysis indicates that reopening all schools under the same measures as previous periods that combined lockdown with face-to-face schooling would be likely to increase the reproduction number substantially. Assuming a baseline of 0.8, we estimated a likely increase to between 1.0 and 1.5 with the reopening of all schools or to between 0.9 and 1.2 reopening primary or secondary schools alone.Conclusion: Our results suggest that reopening schools would likely halt the fall in cases observed between January and March 2021 and would risk a return to rising infections, but these estimates relied heavily on the latest estimates or reproduction number and the validity of the susceptibility and infectiousness profiles we used at the time of reopening. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The introduction of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19 infection, in the UK in early 2020, resulted in the introduction of several control policies to reduce disease spread. As part of these restrictions, schools were closed to all pupils in March (except for vulnerable and key worker children), before re-opening to certain year groups in June. Finally, all school children returned to the classroom in September.Methods: Here, we analyse data on school absences in late 2020 as a result of COVID-19 infection and how that varied through time as other measures in the community were introduced. We utilise data from the Department for Education Educational Settings database and examine how pupil and teacher absences change in both primary and secondary schools.Results: Our results show that absences as a result of COVID-19 infection rose steadily following the re-opening of schools in September. Cases in teachers declined during the November lockdown, particularly in regions previously in tier 3, the highest level of control at the time. Cases in secondary school pupils increased for the first 2 weeks of the November lockdown, before decreasing. Since the introduction of the tier system, the number of absences with confirmed infection in primary schools was observed to be (markedly) lower than that in secondary schools. In December, we observed a large rise in the number of absences per school in secondary school settings in the South East and London, but such rises were not observed in other regions or in primary school settings. We conjecture that the increased transmissibility of the new variant in these regions may have contributed to this rise in secondary school cases. Finally, we observe a positive correlation between cases in the community and cases in schools in most regions, with weak evidence suggesting that cases in schools lag behind cases in the surrounding community.Conclusions: We conclude that there is no significant evidence to suggest that schools are playing a substantial role in driving spread in the community and that careful monitoring may be required as schools re-open to determine the effect associated with open schools upon community incidence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: To estimate excess mortality for care home residents during the COVID-19 pandemic in England, exploring associations with care home characteristics.Methods: Daily number of deaths in all residential and nursing homes in England notified to the Care Quality Commission (CQC) from 1 January 2017 to 7 August 2020. Care home-level data linked with CQC care home register to identify home characteristics: client type (over 65s/children and adults), ownership status (for-profit/not-for-profit; branded/independent) and size (small/medium/large). Excess deaths computed as the difference between observed and predicted deaths using local authority fixed-effect Poisson regressions on pre-pandemic data. Fixed-effect logistic regressions were used to model odds of experiencing COVID-19 suspected/confirmed deaths.Results: Up to 7 August 2020, there were 29,542 (95% CI 25,176 to 33,908) excess deaths in all care homes. Excess deaths represented 6.5% (95% CI 5.5 to 7.4%) of all care home beds, higher in nursing (8.4%) than residential (4.6%) homes. 64.7% (95% CI 56.4 to 76.0%) of the excess deaths were confirmed/suspected COVID-19. Almost all excess deaths were recorded in the quarter (27.4%) of homes with any COVID-19 fatalities. The odds of experiencing COVID-19 attributable deaths were higher in homes providing nursing services (OR 1.8, 95% CI 1.6 to 2.0), to older people and/or with dementia (OR 5.5, 95% CI 4.4 to 6.8), amongst larger (vs. small) homes (OR 13.3, 95% CI 11.5 to 15.4) and belonging to a large provider/brand (OR 1.2, 95% CI 1.1 to 1.3). There was no significant association with for-profit status of providers.Conclusions: To limit excess mortality, policy should be targeted at care homes to minimise the risk of ingress of disease and limit subsequent transmission. Our findings provide specific characteristic targets for further research on mechanisms and policy priority. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: England's COVID-19 response transitioned from a national lockdown to localised interventions. In response to rising cases, these were supplemented by national restrictions on contacts (the Rule of Six), then 10 pm closing for bars and restaurants, and encouragement to work from home. These were quickly followed by a 3-tier system applying different restrictions in different localities. As cases continued to rise, a second national lockdown was declared. We used a national survey to quantify the impact of these restrictions on epidemiologically relevant contacts. We compared paired measures on setting-specific contacts before and after each restriction started and tested for differences using paired permutation tests on the mean change in contacts and the proportion of individuals decreasing their contacts. Results: Following the imposition of each measure, individuals tended to report fewer contacts than they had before. However, the magnitude of the changes was relatively small and variable. For instance, although early closure of bars and restaurants appeared to have no measurable effect on contacts, the work from home directive reduced mean daily work contacts by 0.99 (95% confidence interval CI] 0.03-1.94), and the Rule of Six reduced nonwork and school contacts by a mean of 0.25 (0.01-0.5) per day. Whilst Tier 3 appeared to also reduce non-work and school contacts, the evidence for an effect of the lesser restrictions (Tiers 1 and 2) was much weaker. There may also have been some evidence of saturation of effects, with those who were in Tier 1 (least restrictive) reducing their contacts markedly when they entered lockdown, which was not reflected in similar changes in those who were already under tighter restrictions (Tiers 2 and 3). Conclusions: The imposition of various local and national measures in England during the summer and autumn of 2020 has gradually reduced contacts. However, these changes are smaller than the initial lockdown in March. This may partly be because many individuals were already starting from a lower number of contacts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: HIV is known to increase the likelihood of reactivation of latent tuberculosis to active TB disease; however, its impact on tuberculosis infectiousness and consequent transmission is unclear, particularly in low-incidence settings.Methods: National surveillance data from England, Wales and Northern Ireland on tuberculosis cases in adults from 2010 to 2014, strain typed using 24-locus mycobacterial-interspersed-repetitive-units-variable-number-tandem-repeats was used retrospectively to identify clusters of tuberculosis cases, subdivided into 'first' and 'subsequent' cases. Firstly, we used zero-inflated Poisson regression models to examine the association between HIV status and the number of subsequent clustered cases (a surrogate for tuberculosis infectiousness) in a strain type cluster. Secondly, we used logistic regression to examine the association between HIV status and the likelihood of being a subsequent case in a cluster (a surrogate for recent acquisition of tuberculosis infection) compared to the first case or a non-clustered case (a surrogate for reactivation of latent infection).Results: We included 18,864 strain-typed cases, 2238 were the first cases of clusters and 8471 were subsequent cases. Seven hundred and fifty-nine (4%) were HIV-positive. Outcome 1: HIV-positive pulmonary tuberculosis cases who were the first in a cluster had fewer subsequent cases associated with them (mean 0.6, multivariable incidence rate ratio [IRR] 0.75 [0.65-0.86]) than those HIV-negative (mean 1.1). Extra-pulmonary tuberculosis (EPTB) cases with HIV were less likely to be the first case in a cluster compared to HIV-negative EPTB cases. EPTB cases who were the first case had a higher mean number of subsequent cases (mean 2.5, IRR (3.62 [3.12-4.19]) than those HIV-negative (mean 0.6). Outcome 2: tuberculosis cases with HIV co-infection were less likely to be a subsequent case in a cluster (odds ratio 0.82 [0.69-0.98]), compared to being the first or a non-clustered case.Conclusions: Outcome 1: pulmonary tuberculosis-HIV patients were less infectious than those without HIV. EPTB patients with HIV who were the first case in a cluster had a higher number of subsequent cases and thus may be markers of other undetected cases, discoverable by contact investigations. Outcome 2: tuberculosis in HIV-positive individuals was more likely due to reactivation than recent infection, compared to those who were HIV-negative. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Interpersonal violence is a leading cause of death and disability globally, has immediate and long-term impacts on individuals' health and wellbeing, and impacts global health care expenditures and national economies. A public health approach to violence prevention is crucial, and addressing risk factors is a key priority. Global research has demonstrated that childhood adversity increases risk of a range of poor outcomes across the lifecourse. This study examined the association between being a victim of child abuse and the risk of physical assault (PA), intimate partner violence (IPV), and sexual violence (SV) victimisation in adulthood.Methods: Data from a nationally representative survey of household residents (adults aged 16 to 59 years; n = 21,845) was analysed. Types of child abuse examined included physical, sexual, and psychological abuse and witnessing domestic violence. Logistic regressions examined the independent relationships between child abuse types, experiencing multiple types, and adulthood violence outcomes.Results: Most individual types of child abuse were significantly associated with each adulthood violence outcome, after controlling for sociodemographics and other abuse types. Compared to individuals who experienced no abuse in childhood, those who experienced one form of abuse were over twice as likely to experience PA in the past year and three times as likely to have experienced IPV and/or SV since age 16 years, whilst individuals who experienced multiple types were three, six, and seven times more likely to experience PA, IPV, and SV, respectively. After controlling for sociodemographics and multi-type childhood victimisation, the type or combination of types which remained significant differed by violence outcome; child psychological and physical abuse were significantly associated with IPV; psychological and sexual abuse with SV; and psychological abuse with PA.Conclusions: Prevention of child abuse is an important goal, and evidence from the current study suggests such efforts will have a downstream effect on preventing interpersonal violence across the lifecourse. With adulthood victimisation likely to compound the already detrimental effects of childhood abuse, and given that many associated outcomes also represent adversities for the next generation, breaking the cycle of violence should be a public health priority. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Deciding whether to discontinue antibiotics at early review is a cornerstone of hospital antimicrobial stewardship practice worldwide. In England, this approach is described in government guidance ('Start Smart then Focus'). However, < 10% of hospital antibiotic prescriptions are discontinued at review, despite evidence that 20-30% could be discontinued safely. We aimed to quantify the relative importance of factors influencing prescriber decision-making at review.Methods: We conducted an online choice experiment, a survey method to elicit preferences. Acute/general hospital prescribers in England were asked if they would continue or discontinue antibiotic treatment in 15 hypothetical scenarios. Scenarios were described according to six attributes, including patients' presenting symptoms and whether discontinuation would conflict with local prescribing guidelines. Respondents' choices were analysed using conditional logistic regression.Results: One hundred respondents completed the survey. Respondents were more likely to continue antibiotics when discontinuation would 'strongly conflict' with local guidelines (average marginal effect (AME) on the probability of continuing + 0.194 (p < 0.001)), when presenting symptoms more clearly indicated antibiotics (AME of urinary tract infection symptoms + 0.173 (p < 0.001) versus unclear symptoms) and when patients had severe frailty/comorbidities (AME = + 0.101 (p < 0.001)). Respondents were less likely to continue antibiotics when under no external pressure to continue (AME = - 0.101 (p < 0.001)). Decisions were also influenced by the risks to patient health of continuing/discontinuing antibiotic treatment.Conclusions: Guidelines that conflict with antibiotic discontinuation (e.g. pre-specify fixed durations) may discourage safe discontinuation at review. In contrast, guidelines conditional on patient factors/treatment response could help hospital prescribers discontinue antibiotics if diagnostic information suggesting they are no longer needed is available. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The safety of restarting angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors (ACEI) or angiotensin II receptor blockers (ARB) after acute kidney injury (AKI) is unclear. There is concern that previous users do not restart ACEI/ARB despite ongoing indications. We sought to determine the risk of adverse events after an episode of AKI, comparing prior ACEI/ARB users who stop treatment to those who continue.Methods: We conducted two parallel cohort studies in English and Swedish primary and secondary care, 2006-2016. We used multivariable Cox regression to estimate hazard ratios (HR) for hospital admission with heart failure (primary analysis), AKI, stroke, or death within 2 years after hospital discharge following a first AKI episode. We compared risks of admission between people who stopped ACEI/ARB treatment to those who were prescribed ACEI/ARB within 30 days of AKI discharge. We undertook sensitivity analyses, including propensity score-matched samples, to explore the robustness of our results.Results: In England, we included 7303 people with AKI hospitalisation following recent ACEI/ARB therapy for the primary analysis. Four thousand three (55%) were classified as stopping ACEI/ARB based on no prescription within 30 days of discharge. In Sweden, we included 1790 people, of whom 1235 (69%) stopped treatment. In England, no differences were seen in subsequent risk of heart failure (HR 1.10; 95% confidence intervals (CI) 0.93-1.30), AKI (HR 0.90; 95% CI 0.77-1.05), or stroke (HR 0.99; 95% CI 0.71-1.38), but there was an increased risk of death (HR 1.27; 95% CI 1.15-1.41) in those who stopped ACEI/ARB compared to those who continued. Results were similar in Sweden: no differences were seen in risk of heart failure (HR 0.91; 95% CI 0.73-1.13) or AKI (HR 0.81; 95% CI 0.54-1.21). However, no increased risk of death was seen (HR 0.94; 95% CI 0.78-1.13) and stroke was less common in people who stopped ACEI/ARB (HR 0.56; 95% CI 0.34-0.93). Results were similar across all sensitivity analyses.Conclusions: Previous ACEI/ARB users who continued treatment after an episode of AKI did not have an increased risk of heart failure or subsequent AKI compared to those who stopped the drugs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Cardiovascular disease is responsible for 31% of all global deaths. Primary prevention strategies are needed to improve longer-term adherence to statins and healthy lifestyle behaviours to reduce risk in people at risk of cardiovascular disease.Methods: Pragmatic randomised controlled trial recruited between May 2016 and March 2017 from primary care practices, England. Participants (n = 212) prescribed statins for primary prevention of cardiovascular disease with total cholesterol level ≥ 5 mmol/l were randomised: 105 to the intervention group and 107 to the control group, stratified by age and sex. The 3R intervention involved two facilitated, structured group education sessions focusing on medication adherence to statins, lifestyle behaviours and cardiovascular risk, with 44 weeks of medication reminders and motivational text messages and two supportive, coaching phone calls (at approximately 2 weeks and 6 months). The control group continued with usual clinical care. Both groups received a basic information leaflet. The primary outcome was medication adherence to statins objectively measured by a biochemical urine test. Self-reported adherence and practice prescription data provided additional measures. Secondary outcomes included cholesterol profile, blood pressure, anthropometric data, cardiovascular risk score, and self-reported lifestyle behaviours and psychological measures (health/medication beliefs, quality of life, health status). All outcomes were assessed at 12 months.Results: Baseline adherence to statins was 47% (control) and 62% (intervention). No significant difference between the groups found for medication adherence to statins using either the urine test (OR 1.02, 95% CI 0.34 to 3.06, P = 0.968) or other measures. This may have been due to the higher than expected adherence levels at baseline. The adjusted mean difference between the groups (in favour of the intervention group) for diastolic blood pressure (- 4.28 mmHg (95% CI - 0.98 to - 1.58, P = 0.002)) and waist circumference (- 2.55 cm (95% CI - 4.55 to - 0.55, P = 0.012)). The intervention group also showed greater perceived control of treatment and more coherent understanding of the condition.Conclusions: The 3R programme successfully led to longer-term improvements in important clinical lifestyle indicators but no improvement in medication adherence, raising questions about the suitability of such a broad, multiple risk factor approach for improving medication adherence for primary prevention of CVD.Trial Registration: International Standard Randomized Controlled Trial Number (ISRCTN16863160), March 11, 2006. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: COVID-19 poses one of the most profound public health crises for a hundred years. As of mid-May 2020, across the world, almost 300,000 deaths and over 4 million confirmed cases were registered. Reaching over 30,000 deaths by early May, the UK had the highest number of recorded deaths in Europe, second in the world only to the USA. Hospitalization and death from COVID-19 have been linked to demographic and socioeconomic variation. Since this varies strongly by location, there is an urgent need to analyse the mismatch between health care demand and supply at the local level. As lockdown measures ease, reinfection may vary by area, necessitating a real-time tool for local and regional authorities to anticipate demand.Methods: Combining census estimates and hospital capacity data from ONS and NHS at the Administrative Region, Ceremonial County (CC), Clinical Commissioning Group (CCG) and Lower Layer Super Output Area (LSOA) level from England and Wales, we calculate the number of individuals at risk of COVID-19 hospitalization. Combining multiple sources, we produce geospatial risk maps on an online dashboard that dynamically illustrate how the pre-crisis health system capacity matches local variations in hospitalization risk related to age, social deprivation, population density and ethnicity, also adjusting for the overall infection rate and hospital capacity.Results: By providing fine-grained estimates of expected hospitalization, we identify areas that face higher disproportionate health care burdens due to COVID-19, with respect to pre-crisis levels of hospital bed capacity. Including additional risks beyond age-composition of the area such as social deprivation, race/ethnic composition and population density offers a further nuanced identification of areas with disproportionate health care demands.Conclusions: Areas face disproportionate risks for COVID-19 hospitalization pressures due to their socioeconomic differences and the demographic composition of their populations. Our flexible online dashboard allows policy-makers and health officials to monitor and evaluate potential health care demand at a granular level as the infection rate and hospital capacity changes throughout the course of this pandemic. This agile knowledge is invaluable to tackle the enormous logistical challenges to re-allocate resources and target susceptible areas for aggressive testing and tracing to mitigate transmission. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: To reduce inequalities between individuals with and without mental health problems, a better understanding is required of triggers and success of quit attempts among the third of smokers with mental health problems. The aim was to assess whether there are differences by mental health status in (i) triggers for quit attempts, (ii) use of evidence-based support (iii) and quit success.Methods: Monthly cross-sectional household surveys of representative samples of the adult population in England. In 2016/2017, 40,831 adults were surveyed; 1956 who had attempted to stop smoking cigarettes in the past year were included. Logistic regressions assessed associations between mental health (ever diagnosis, past-year treatment, past-month distress), triggers, support used and quit success, adjusting for sociodemographic and smoking characteristics.Results: Concern about future health, current health problems and expense of smoking were the most common triggers overall. For respondents with an ever diagnosis, past-year treatment or serious past-month distress, quit attempts were more frequently triggered by current health problems. Non-evidence-based support and e-cigarettes were used most often, and this did not differ by mental health status. Respondents with an ever diagnosis and moderate or serious distress were less likely to have used non-prescription nicotine replacement therapy (NRT). Respondents with past-year treatment or serious distress were more likely to have used prescription medication/behavioural support. Quit success did not differ by mental health status. Compared with non-evidence-based support, non-prescription NRT conferred no benefit. There was some evidence that prescription medication/behavioural support was beneficial (depending on outcome and adjustment, ORs ranged from 1.46, 95% CI 0.92-2.31, to 1.69, 1.01-2.86). E-cigarettes were associated with higher success rates after adjustment for different indicators of mental health (ORs ranged from 2.21, 1.64-2.98, to 2.25, 1.59-3.18).Conclusions: Smokers with mental health problems were more likely to have attempted to quit because of health problems and were more likely to have used gold standard support (medication and behavioural support) than other smokers. E-cigarettes were strongly associated with increased success and were used similarly by those with and without mental health problems, indicating that improved uptake of e-cigarettes for smoking cessation among smokers with mental health problems could help address inequalities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Research is fundamental to high-quality care, but concerns have been raised about whether health research is conducted in the populations most affected by high disease prevalence. Geographical distribution of research activity is important for many reasons. Recruitment is a major barrier to research delivery, and undertaking recruitment in areas of high prevalence could be more efficient. Regional variability exists in risk factors and outcomes, so research done in healthier populations may not generalise. Much applied health research evaluates interventions, and their impact may vary by context (including geography). Finally, fairness dictates that publically funded research should be accessible to all, so that benefits of participating can be fairly distributed. We explored whether recruitment of patients to health research is aligned with disease prevalence in England.Methods: We measured disease prevalence using the Quality and Outcomes Framework in England (total long-term conditions, mental health and diabetes). We measured research activity using data from the NIHR Clinical Research Network. We presented descriptive data on geographical variation in recruitment rates. We explored associations between the recruitment rate and disease prevalence rate. We calculated the share of patient recruitment that would need to be redistributed to align recruitment with prevalence. We assessed whether associations between recruitment rate and disease prevalence varied between conditions, and over time.Results: There was significant geographical variation in recruitment rates. When areas were ranked by disease prevalence, recruitment was not aligned with prevalence, with disproportionately low recruitment in areas with higher prevalence of total long-term and mental health conditions. At the level of 15 local networks, analyses suggested that around 12% of current recruitment activity would need to be redistributed to align with disease prevalence. Overall, alignment showed little change over time, but there was variation in the trends over time in individual conditions.Conclusions: Geographical variations in recruitment do not reflect the suitability of the population for research. Indicators should be developed to assess the fit between research and need, and to allow assessment of interventions among funders, researchers and patients to encourage closer alignment between research activity and burden. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Opioid overdoses have had a serious impact on the public health systems and socioeconomic welfare of several countries. Within this broader context, we focus our study on primary care opioid prescribing in England from 2015 to 2018, particularly the patterns of spatial variations at the community level and the socioeconomic and environmental factors that drive consumption.Methods: Leveraging open data sources, we combine prescription records with aggregated data on patient provenance and build highly granular maps of Oral Morphine Equivalent (OME) prescribing rates for Lower Layer Super Output Areas (LSOA). We quantify the strength of spatial associations by means of the Empirical Bayes Index (EBI) that accounts for geographical variations in population density. We explore the interplay between socioeconomic and environmental determinants and prescribing rates by implementing a multivariate logistic regression model across different temporal snapshots and spatial scales.Results: We observe, across time and geographical resolutions, a significant spatial association with the presence of localized hot and cold spots that group neighboring areas with homogeneous prescribing rates (e.g., EBI = 0.727 at LSOA level for 2018). Accounting for spatial dependency effects, we find that LSOA with both higher employment deprivation (OR = 62.6, CI 52.8-74.3) and a higher percentage of ethnically white (OR = 30.1, CI 25.4-35.7) inhabitants correspond to higher prescribing rates. Looking at educational attainment, we find LSOA with the prevalent degree of education being apprenticeship (OR = 2.33, CI 1.96-2.76) a risk factor and those with level 4+ (OR = 0.41, CI 0.35-0.48) a protective factor. Focusing on environmental determinants, housing (OR = 0.18, CI 0.15-0.21) and outdoor environment deprivation (OR = 0.62, CI 0.53-0.72) indices capture the bi-modal behavior observed in the literature concerning rural/urban areas. The results are consistent across time and spatial aggregations.Conclusions: Failing to account for local variations in opioid prescribing rates smooths out spatial dependency effects that result in underestimating/overestimating the impact on public health policies at the community level. Our study suggests a novel approach to inform more targeted interventions toward the most vulnerable population strata. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: There is a decreasing trend in the proportion of individuals who perceive e-cigarettes to be less harmful than conventional cigarettes across the UK, Europe and the US. It is important to assess whether this may influence the use of e-cigarettes. We aimed to estimate, using a time series approach, whether changes in harm perceptions among current tobacco smokers have been associated with changes in the prevalence of e-cigarette use in England, with and without stratification by age, sex and social grade.Methods: Respondents were from the Smoking Toolkit Study, which involves monthly cross-sectional household surveys of individuals aged 16+ years in England. Data were aggregated monthly on ~ 300 current tobacco smokers between 2014 and 2019. The outcome variable was the prevalence of e-cigarette use. The explanatory variable was the proportion of smokers who endorsed the belief that e-cigarettes are less harmful than combustible cigarettes. Covariates were cigarette (vs. non-cigarette combustible) current smoking prevalence, past-year quit attempt prevalence and national smoking mass media expenditure. Unadjusted and adjusted autoregressive integrated moving average with exogeneous variables (ARIMAX) models were fitted.Results: For every 1% decrease in the mean prevalence of current tobacco smokers who endorsed the belief that e-cigarettes are less harmful than combustible cigarettes, the mean prevalence of e-cigarette use decreased by 0.48% (βadj = 0.48, 95% CI = 0.25-0.71, p < .001). Marginal age and sex differences were observed, whereby significant associations were observed in older (but not in young) adults and in men (but not in women). No differences by social grade were detected.Conclusions: Between 2014 and 2019 in England, at the population level, monthly changes in the prevalence of accurate harm perceptions among current tobacco smokers were strongly associated with changes in e-cigarette use. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: For years, the benefits of septoplasty have been questioned. Due to the scarce and inconclusive literature, several National Health Service (NHS) Clinical Commissioning Groups in England decided to add septal surgery to their list of restricted procedures with low clinical value. Recently, evidence was obtained that septoplasty is actually more effective than non-surgical management for nasal obstruction in adults with a deviated septum. However, the relation between costs and effects of septoplasty remains unknown.Methods: We conducted an economic evaluation alongside an open, multicenter, pragmatic randomized controlled trial in two tertiary and 16 secondary referral hospitals in the Netherlands. Adults with nasal obstruction and a deviated septum were randomized to (1) septoplasty with or without concurrent turbinate surgery or (2) non-surgical management consisting of (a combination of) medical treatment and watchful waiting. Analyses were performed on an intention-to-treat basis. Single imputation nested in the bootstrap percentile method (using 5000 bootstrap replications) was performed to assess the effect of missing data. After 12 and 24 months, we assessed the incremental costs per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained from a healthcare and a societal perspective.Results: A total of 203 adults were randomly assigned to septoplasty (N = 102) or non-surgical management (N = 101). After 12 months, the mean cost difference between septoplasty and non-surgical management using a healthcare or societal perspective was €1181 (95%CI €1038 to €1323) or €2192 per patient (95%CI €1714 to €2670), respectively. The mean QALY difference was 0.03 per patient (95%CI - 0.01 to 0.07). Incremental costs per QALY gained from a healthcare or societal perspective were €41,763 or €77,525, respectively. After 24 months, the mean cost difference between the two groups using a healthcare or societal perspective decreased to €936 (95%CI €719 to €1153) or €1671 per patient (95%CI €952 to €2390), respectively. The mean QALY difference increased to 0.05 per patient (95%CI - 0.03 to 0.14). Incremental costs per QALY gained from a healthcare or societal perspective became €17,374 or €31,024, respectively. Analyses of imputed data did not alter our findings.Conclusions: Depending on the selected perspective, cost-effectiveness threshold, and time horizon, septoplasty has the potential to be cost-effective. Despite considerable uncertainty, septoplasty seems to be cost-effective from a healthcare perspective, after 24 months against a threshold of €20,000 per QALY. From a societal perspective, septoplasty is not yet cost-effective after 24 months, but it comes closer to the cost-effectiveness threshold as time passes by.Trial Registration: Nederlands Trial Register, NTR3868 (https://www.trialregister.nl/trial/3698). Prospectively registered on February 21, 2013. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The recent emergence of strains belonging to the meningococcal serogroup W (MenW) sequence type-11 clonal complex and descending from the South American sub-lineage (MenW:cc11/SA) has caused significant shifts in the epidemiology of meningococcal disease worldwide. Although MenW:cc11/SA is deemed highly transmissible and invasive, its epidemiological characteristics have not yet been quantified.Methods: We designed a mathematical model of MenW transmission, carriage, and infection to analyze the recent epidemiology of invasive disease caused by MenW:cc11/SA strains and by other MenW strains in England and in France. We confronted that model with age-stratified incidence data to estimate the transmissibility and the invasiveness of MenW:cc11/SA in England, using the data in France as a validation cohort.Results: During the epidemiological years 2010/2011-2014/2015 in England, the transmissibility of MenW:cc11/SA relative to that of other MenW strains was estimated at 1.20 (95% confidence interval, 1.15 to 1.26). The relative invasiveness of MenW:cc11/SA was also found to exceed unity and to increase with age, with estimates ranging from 4.0 (1.6 to 9.7) in children aged 0-4 years to 20 (6 to 34) in adults aged ≥ 25 years. In France, the model calibrated in England correctly reproduced the early increase of MenW:cc11/SA disease during 2012/2013-2016/2017. Most recent surveillance data, however, indicated a decline in MenW:cc11/SA disease. In both countries, our results suggested that the transmission of MenW:cc11/SA carriage possibly started several months before the first reported case of MenW:cc11/SA disease.Discussion: Our results confirm earlier suggestions about the transmission and the pathogenic potential of MenW:cc11/SA. The main limitation of our study was the lack of age-specific MenW carriage data to confront our model predictions with. Furthermore, the lesser model fit to the most recent data in France suggests that the predictive accuracy of our model might be limited to 5-6 years.Conclusions: Our study provides the first estimates of the transmissibility and of the invasiveness of MenW:cc11/SA. Such estimates may be useful to anticipate changes in the epidemiology of MenW and to adapt vaccination strategies. Our results also point to silent, prolonged transmission of MenW:cc11/SA carriage, with potentially important implications for epidemic preparedness. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: To assess the long-term impact of the increase in age-of-sale of cigarettes from 16 to 18 in England in October 2007.Methods: Data were collected between November 2006 and September 2018 on 252,601 participants taking part in a nationally representative survey of adults aged 16+ in England, the Smoking Toolkit Study (STS). We assessed the impact of the introduction of the increase in age-of-sale on prevalence of ever smoking, current smoking, and quit attempts, among 16-17 year olds compared with 18-24 year olds.Results: Following the increase in age-of-sale, there was a declining trend in ever smoking that was greater among 16-17 year olds than 18-24 year olds (OR 0.990 versus OR 0.993; p = 0.019). Data on current smoking were insensitive to detect a difference between the age groups in a step-level change or change in trend following the increase in age-of-sale (Bayes factors (BFs) 0.75 and 2.10). Data on quit attempts were also insensitive to detect a change in trend (BF 0.71), and despite a greater step-level decline among those aged 16-17 (OR 0.311 versus OR 0.547, p = 0.025), quit attempts remained higher among those aged 16-17. Secondary analysis indicated that post-policy change, trends in current and ever smoking were linear for 16-17 year olds but quadratic for 18-24 year olds (slowing decline).Conclusion: There is some evidence from an assessment of long-term trends in the Smoking Toolkit Study that the increase in legal age-of-sale of cigarettes in England was associated with a greater long-term decline in ever smoking among those aged 16-17 compared with those aged 18-24. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Multimorbidity is associated with mortality and service use, with specific types of multimorbidity having differential effects. Additionally, multimorbidity is often negatively associated with participation in research cohorts. Therefore, we set out to identify clusters of multimorbidity patients and how they are differentially associated with mortality and service use across age groups in a population-representative sample.Methods: Linked primary and secondary care electronic health records contributed by 382 general practices in England to the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) were used. The study included a representative set of multimorbid adults (18 years old or more, N = 113,211) with two or more long-term conditions (a total of 38 conditions were included). A random set of 80% of the multimorbid patients (N = 90,571) were stratified by age groups and clustered using latent class analysis. Consistency between obtained multimorbidity phenotypes, classification quality and associations with demographic characteristics and primary outcomes (GP consultations, hospitalisations, regular medications and mortality) was validated in the remaining 20% of multimorbid patients (N = 22,640).Results: We identified 20 patient clusters across four age strata. The clusters with the highest mortality comprised psychoactive substance and alcohol misuse (aged 18-64); coronary heart disease, depression and pain (aged 65-84); and coronary heart disease, heart failure and atrial fibrillation (aged 85+). The clusters with the highest service use coincided with those with the highest mortality for people aged over 65. For people aged 18-64, the cluster with the highest service use comprised depression, anxiety and pain. The majority of 85+-year-old multimorbid patients belonged to the cluster with the lowest service use and mortality for that age range. Pain featured in 13 clusters.Conclusions: This work has highlighted patterns of multimorbidity that have implications for health services. These include the importance of psychoactive substance and alcohol misuse in people under the age of 65, of co-morbid depression and coronary heart disease in people aged 65-84 and of cardiovascular disease in people aged 85+. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Infective endocarditis is an uncommon but serious infection, where evidence for giving antibiotic prophylaxis before invasive dental procedures is inconclusive. In England, antibiotic prophylaxis was offered routinely to patients at risk of infective endocarditis until March 2008, when new guidelines aimed at reducing unnecessary antibiotic use were issued. We investigated whether changes in infective endocarditis incidence could be detected using electronic health records, assessing the impact of inclusion criteria/statistical model choice on inferences about the timing/type of any change.Methods: Using national data from Hospital Episode Statistics covering 1998-2017, we modelled trends in infective endocarditis incidence using three different sets of inclusion criteria plus a range of regression models, identifying the most likely date for a change in trends if evidence for one existed. We also modelled trends in the proportions of different organism groups identified during infection episodes, using secondary diagnosis codes and data from national laboratory records. Lastly, we applied non-parametric local smoothing to visually inspect any changes in trend around the guideline change date.Results: Infective endocarditis incidence increased markedly over the study (22.2-41.3 per million population in 1998 to 42.0-67.7 in 2017 depending on inclusion criteria). The most likely dates for a change in incidence trends ranged from September 2001 (uncertainty interval August 2000-May 2003) to May 2015 (March 1999-January 2016), depending on inclusion criteria and statistical model used. For the proportion of infective endocarditis cases associated with streptococci, the most likely change points ranged from October 2008 (March 2006-April 2010) to August 2015 (September 2013-November 2015), with those associated with oral streptococci decreasing in proportion after the change point. Smoothed trends showed no notable changes in trend around the guideline date.Conclusions: Infective endocarditis incidence has increased rapidly in England, though we did not detect any change in trends directly following the updated guidelines for antibiotic prophylaxis, either overall or in cases associated with oral streptococci. Estimates of when changes occurred were sensitive to inclusion criteria and statistical model choice, demonstrating the need for caution in interpreting single models when using large datasets. More research is needed to explore the factors behind this increase. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Geographical inequalities in overweight and obesity prevalence among children are well established in cross-sectional research. We aimed to examine how environmental area characteristics at birth are related to these outcomes in childhood.Methods: Anonymised antenatal and birth data recorded by University Hospital Southampton linked to school-measured weight and height data for children within Southampton, UK, were utilised (14,084 children at ages 4-5 and 5637 at ages 10-11). Children's home address at birth was analysed at the Lower and Middle layer Super Output Area (LSOA/MSOA) levels (areas with average populations of 1500 and 7000, respectively). Area-level indices (walkability, relative density of unhealthy food outlets, spaces for social interaction), natural greenspace coverage, supermarket density and measures of air pollution (PM2.5, PM10 and NOx) were constructed using ArcGIS Network Analyst. Overweight/obesity was defined as a body mass index (BMI; kg/m2) greater than the 85th centile for sex and age. Population-average generalised estimating equations estimated the risk of being overweight/obese for children at both time points. Confounders included maternal BMI and smoking in early pregnancy, education, ethnicity and parity. We also examined associations for a subgroup of children who moved residence between birth and outcome measurement.Results: There were mixed results between area characteristics at birth and overweight/obesity at later ages. MSOA relative density of unhealthy food outlets and PM10 were positively associated with overweight/obesity, but not among children who moved. LSOA greenspace coverage was negatively associated with the risk of being overweight/obese at ages 10-11 in all children (relative risk ratio 0.997, 95% confidence interval 0.995-0.999, p = 0.02) and among children who moved.Conclusions: Local access to natural greenspaces at the time of birth was inversely associated with becoming overweight or obese by age 10-11, regardless of migration. Increased access/protection of greenspace may have a role in the early prevention of childhood obesity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Obesogenic environments and obesity: a comment on 'Are environmental area characteristics at birth associated with overweight and obesity in school-aged children? Keywords: Health geography; Obesity; Environment; Greenspace; Cohort study It is particularly important to consider these age groups of children given recent evidence from the English 2018/19 National Childhood Measurement Programme, which showed 9.7% of reception class children (aged 4-5 years) were obese, while the prevalence of obesity in year 6 children (aged 10-11 years) was 20.2% [[9]]. There continues to be growing interest in the environmental determinants of health outcomes and health behaviours. [Extracted from the article]

Background: The UK is dependent on international doctors, with a greater proportion of non-UK qualified doctors working in its universal health care system than in any other European country, except Ireland and Norway. The terms of the UK exit from the European Union can reduce the ability of European Economic Area (EEA) qualified doctors to work in the UK, while new visa requirements will significantly restrict the influx of non-EEA doctors. We aimed to explore the implications of policy restrictions on immigration, by regionally and spatially describing the characteristics of general practitioners (GPs) by region of medical qualification and the characteristics of the populations they serve.Methods: This is a cross-sectional study on 37,792 of 41,865 GPs in England, as of 30 September 2016. The study involved age, sex, full-time equivalent (FTE), country and region of qualification and geography (organisational regions) of individual GPs. Additionally at the practice and geography levels, we studied patient list size by age groups, average patient location deprivation, the overall morbidity as measured by the Quality and Outcomes Framework (QOF) and the average payment made to primary care per patient.Results: Non-UK qualified GPs comprised 21.1% of the total numbers of GPs, with the largest percentage observed in East England (29.8%). Compared to UK qualified GPs, EEA and elsewhere qualified GPs had higher FTE (medians were 0.80, 0.89 and 0.93, respectively) and worked in practices with higher median patient location deprivation (18.3, 22.5 and 25.2, respectively). Practices with high percentages of EEA and elsewhere qualified GPs served patients who resided in more deprived areas, had lower GP-to-patient ratios and lower GP-to-cumulative QOF register ratios. A decrease in pay as the percentage of elsewhere qualified GPs increased was observed; a 10% increase in elsewhere qualified GPs was linked to a £1 decrease (95% confidence interval 0.5-1.4) in average pay per patient.Conclusions: A large percentage of the UK general practice workforce consists of non-UK qualified GPs who work longer hours, are older and serve a larger number of patients in more deprived areas. Following Brexit, difficulties in replacing this valuable workforce will primarily threaten the care delivery in deprived areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Current estimates suggest that approximately 75% of people approaching the end-of-life may benefit from palliative care. The growing numbers of older people and increasing prevalence of chronic illness in many countries mean that more people may benefit from palliative care in the future, but this has not been quantified. The present study aims to estimate future population palliative care need in two high-income countries.Methods: We used mortality statistics for England and Wales from 2006 to 2014. Building on previous diagnosis-based approaches, we calculated age- and sex-specific proportions of deaths from defined chronic progressive illnesses to estimate the prevalence of palliative care need in the population. We calculated annual change over the 9-year period. Using explicit assumptions about change in disease prevalence over time, and official mortality forecasts, we modelled palliative care need up to 2040. We also undertook separate projections for dementia, cancer and organ failure.Results: By 2040, annual deaths in England and Wales are projected to rise by 25.4% (from 501,424 in 2014 to 628,659). If age- and sex-specific proportions with palliative care needs remain the same as in 2014, the number of people requiring palliative care will grow by 25.0% (from 375,398 to 469,305 people/year). However, if the upward trend observed from 2006 to 2014 continues, the increase will be of 42.4% (161,842 more people/year, total 537,240). In addition, disease-specific projections show that dementia (increase from 59,199 to 219,409 deaths/year by 2040) and cancer (increase from 143,638 to 208,636 deaths by 2040) will be the main drivers of increased need.Conclusions: If recent mortality trends continue, 160,000 more people in England and Wales will need palliative care by 2040. Healthcare systems must now start to adapt to the age-related growth in deaths from chronic illness, by focusing on integration and boosting of palliative care across health and social care disciplines. Countries with similar demographic and disease changes will likely experience comparable rises in need. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Strategies in many countries have sought to improve palliative care and reduce hospital deaths for non-cancer patients, but their effects are not evaluated. We aimed to determine the trends and factors associated with dying in hospital in two common progressive respiratory diseases, and the impact of a national end of life care (EoLC) strategy to reduce deaths in hospital.Methods: This population-based observational study linked death registration data for people in England dying from chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) or interstitial pulmonary diseases (IPD). We plotted age- and sex-standardised trends, assessed during the pre-strategy (2001-2004), first strategy phase (2004-2008), and strategy intensification (2009-2014) periods, and identified factors associated with hospital death using multiple adjusted proportion ratios (PRs).Results: Over 14 years, 380,232 people died from COPD (334,520) or IPD (45,712). Deaths from COPD and IPD increased by 0.9% and 9.2% annually, respectively. Death in hospital was most common (67% COPD, 70% IPD). Dying in hospice was rare (0.9% COPD, 2.9% IPD). After a plateau in 2004-2005, hospital deaths fell (PRs 0.92-0.94). Co-morbidities and deprivation independently increased the chances of dying in hospital, with larger effects in IPD (PRs 1.01-1.55) than COPD (PRs 1.01-1.39) and dose-response gradients. The impact of multimorbidity increased over time; hospital deaths did not fall for people with two or more co-morbidities in COPD, nor one or more in IPD. Living in rural areas (PRs 0.94-0.94) or outside London (PRs, 0.89-0.98) reduced the chances of hospital death. In IPD, increased age reduced the likelihood of hospital death (PR 0.81, ≥ 85 versus ≤ 54 years); divergently, in COPD, being aged 65-74 years was associated with increased hospital deaths (PR 1.13, versus ≤ 54 years). The independent effects of sex and marital status differed for COPD versus IPD (PRs 0.89-1.04); in COPD, hospital death was associated with being married.Conclusions: The EoLC strategy appeared to have contributed to tangible reductions in hospital deaths, but did not reach people with multimorbidity and this gap widened over time. Integrating palliative care earlier in the disease trajectory especially in deprived areas and cities, and where multimorbidity is present, should be boosted, taking into account the different demographic factors in COPD and IPD. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Through decades of research, numerous studies have generated robust evidence about effective interventions for tuberculosis control. Yet, the global annual decline in incidence of approximately 1 % is evidence that current approaches and investment strategies are not sufficient. In this article, we assess recent tuberculosis research funding and discuss two critical gaps in funding and in scientific evidence from topics that have been left off the research priority agenda.We first examine research and development funding goals in the 2011-2015 Global Plan to Stop Tuberculosis and analyze disbursements to different research areas by funders worldwide in 2014. We then summarize, through a compilation of published literature and consultation with 35 researchers across multiple disciplines in the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine TB Centre, priorities identified by the tuberculosis research community. Finally, we compare researchers' priority areas to the global funding agendas and activities.Our analysis shows that, among the five key research areas defined in the 2011-2015 Global Plan - namely drugs, basic science, vaccines, diagnostics and operational research - drug discovery and basic science on Mycobacterium tuberculosis accounted for 60 % of the $2 billion annual funding target. None of the research areas received the recommended level of funding. Operational research, which had the lowest target, received 66 % of its target funding, whereas new diagnostics received only 19 %. Although many of the priority research questions identified by researchers fell within the Global Plan categories, our analysis highlights important areas that are not explicitly mentioned in the current plan. These priority research areas included improved understanding of tuberculosis transmission dynamics, the role of social protection and social determinants, and health systems and policy research.While research priorities are increasingly important in light of the limited funding for tuberculosis, there is a risk that we neglect important research areas and encourage the formation of research silos. To ensure that funding priorities, researchers' agendas and national tuberculosis control policies are better coordinated, there should be more, and wider, dialogue between stakeholders in high tuberculosis burden countries, researchers, international policymakers and funders. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Stroke incidence is increased in Black individuals but the reasons for this are poorly understood. Exploring the differences in aetiological stroke subtypes, and the extent to which they are explained by conventional and novel risk factors, is an important step in elucidating the underlying mechanisms for this increased stroke risk.Methods: Between 1999 and 2010, 1200 black and 1200 white stroke patients were prospectively recruited from a contiguous geographical area in South London in the UK. The Trial of Org 10172 (TOAST) classification was used to classify stroke subtype. Age- and sex-adjusted comparisons of socio-demographics, traditional vascular risk factors and stroke subtypes were performed between black and white stroke patients and between Black Caribbean and Black African stroke patients using age-, sex-, and social deprivation-adjusted univariable and multivariable logistic regression analyses.Results: Black stroke patients were younger than white stroke patients (mean (SD) 65.1 (13.7) vs. 74.8 (13.7) years). There were significant differences in the distribution of stroke subtypes. Small vessel disease stroke was increased in black patients versus white patients (27 % vs. 12 %; OR, 2.74; 95 % CI, 2.19-3.44), whereas large vessel and cardioembolic stroke was less frequent in black patients (OR, 0.59; 95 % CI, 0.45-0.78 and OR, 0.61; 95 % CI, 0.50-0.74, respectively). These associations remained after controlling for traditional vascular risk factors and socio-demographics. Black Caribbean patients appeared to have an intermediate risk factor and stroke subtype profile between that found in Black African and white stroke patients. Cardioembolic stroke was more strongly associated with Black Caribbean ethnicity versus Black African ethnicity (OR, 1.48; 95 % CI, 1.04-2.10), whereas intracranial large vessel disease was less frequent in Black Caribbean patients versus Black African subjects (OR, 0.44; 95 % CI, 0.24-0.83).Conclusions: Clear differences exist in stroke subtype distribution between black and white stroke patients, with a marked increase in small vessel stroke. These could not be explained by differences in the assessed traditional risk factors. Possible explanations for these differences might include variations in genetic susceptibility, differing rates of control of vascular risk factors, or as yet undetermined environmental risk factors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Previous studies have suggested that there may be an association between some immune-mediated diseases and risk of tuberculosis (TB). Methods: We analyzed a database of linked statistical records of hospital admissions and death certificates for the whole of England (1999 to 2011), and a similar database (the Oxford Record Linkage Study (ORLS)) for a region of southern England in an earlier period. Rate ratios for TB were determined, comparing immune-mediated disease cohorts with comparison cohorts. Results: In the all-England dataset, there were significantly elevated risks of TB after hospital admission for the following individual immune-mediated diseases: Addison's disease, ankylosing spondylitis, autoimmune hemolytic anemia, chronic active hepatitis, coeliac disease, Crohn's disease, dermatomyositis, Goodpasture's syndrome, Hashimoto's thyroiditis, idiopathic thrombocytopenia purpura (ITP), myasthenia gravis, myxedema, pemphigoid, pernicious anemia, polyarteritis nodosa, polymyositis, primary biliary cirrhosis, psoriasis, rheumatoid arthritis, scleroderma, Sjögren's syndrome, systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE), thyrotoxicosis and ulcerative colitis. Particularly high levels of risk were found for Addison's disease (rate ratio (RR) = 11.9 (95% CI 9.5 to 14.7)), Goodpasture's syndrome (RR = 10.8 (95% CI 4.0 to 23.5)), SLE (RR = 9.4 (95% CI 7.9 to 11.1)), polymyositis (RR = 8.0 (95% CI 4.9 to 12.2)), polyarteritis nodosa (RR = 6.7 (95% CI 3.2 to 12.4)), dermatomyositis (RR = 6.6 (95% CI 3.0 to 12.5)), scleroderma (RR = 6.1 (95% CI 4.4 to 8.2)) and autoimmune hemolytic anemia (RR = 5.1 (95% CI 3.4 to 7.4)). Conclusions: These two databases show that patients with some immune-mediated diseases have an increased risk of TB, although we cannot explicitly state the direction of risk or exclude confounding. Further study of these associations is warranted, and these findings may aid TB screening, control and treatment policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The authors reflect on the role of specialists in Sport and Exercise Medicine in contributing towards increasing physical activity participation in the London 2012 Olympic in England. They explore the significance of the National Centre for Sport and Exercise Medicine as a vehicle for delivering an Olympic health legacy. They also look into several challenges including the funding acquisition, appropriate resource allocation, and the assessment of legacy initiatives impact.

Background: Within the UK there is considerable variation in the perinatal mortality rate. The objective of this study was to assess the factors associated with stillbirths and early neonatal deaths (ENND) and the suitability of the available databases in a health authority with one of the highest rates in the country. Methods: Two case-control studies were carried out in three hospital trusts in the Lambeth, Southwark and Lewisham Health Authority, London, using routinely collected information. In one study, 342 stillbirths and 1,368 controls were included, and in the other study, 205 ENND and 820 controls were included. In the two studies cases and controls were matched for hospital trust. Results: A birthweight below 1.5 kg was found in 54% and 48% of the stillbirths and ENND, respectively. More than 50% of the cases, stillbirths and ENND, had a length of gestation below 32 weeks. Length of gestation, birthweight, emergency caesarean section and age of the mother were associated with stillbirths. Birthweight and Apgar score at 1 minute as a categorical variable were associated with ENND. There was no direct evidence of an effect of social deprivation on the outcomes of interest. Conclusion: Birthweight and length of gestation are the most influential factors on an unfavourable outcome. Conception at an older age has a serious impact on stillbirth rates. In our health authority social disadvantage did not have a direct impact on stillbirth and ENND. Maternity information systems should collect routine data on fewer variables, but their quality in terms of value, standardization and completion rates must improve. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Sleep disturbance is common in dementia and often treated with Z-drugs (zopiclone, zaleplon, and zolpidem). While some observational studies suggest that Z-drugs are associated with adverse events such as falls and fracture risks in older people, this has not been studied in dementia.Methods: We used data from 27,090 patients diagnosed with dementia between January 2000 and March 2016 from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink linked to Hospital Episodes Statistics data in England. We compared adverse events for 3532 patients newly prescribed Z-drugs by time-varying dosage to (1) 1833 non-sedative-users with sleep disturbance; (2) 10,214 non-sedative-users with proximal GP consultation matched on age, sex, and antipsychotic use; and (3) 5172 patients newly prescribed benzodiazepines. We defined higher dose Z-drugs and benzodiazepines as prescriptions equivalent to ≥ 7.5 mg zopiclone or > 5 mg diazepam daily. Cox regression was used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) for incident fracture, hip fracture, fall, mortality, acute bacterial infection, ischaemic stroke/transient ischaemic attack, and venous thromboembolism over a 2-year follow-up, adjusted for demographic- and health-related covariates.Results: The mean (SD) age of patients was 83 (7.7) years, and 16,802 (62%) were women. Of 3532 patients prescribed Z-drugs, 584 (17%) were initiated at higher doses. For patients prescribed higher dose Z-drugs relative to non-users with sleep disturbance, the HRs (95% confidence interval) for fractures, hip fractures, falls, and ischaemic stroke were 1.67 (1.13-2.46), 1.96 (1.16-3.31), 1.33 (1.06-1.66), and 1.88 (1.14-3.10), respectively. We observed similar associations when compared to non-sedative-users with proximal GP consultation. Minimal or inconsistent excess risks were observed at ≤ 3.75 mg zopiclone or equivalent daily, and for mortality, infection, and venous thromboembolism. We observed no differences in adverse events for Z-drugs compared to benzodiazepines, except lower mortality rates with Z-drugs (HR [95% confidence interval] of 0.73 [0.64-0.83]).Conclusions: Higher dose Z-drug use in dementia is associated with increased fracture and stroke risks, similar or greater to that for higher dose benzodiazepines. Higher dose Z-drugs should be avoided, if possible, in people living with dementia, and non-pharmacological alternatives preferentially considered. Prescriptions for higher dose Z-drugs in dementia should be regularly reviewed.Trial Registration: ENCePP e-register of studies, EUPAS18006. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: High blood pressure (BP) is a key modifiable determinant of cardiovascular disease and a likely determinant of other adverse health outcomes. While socioeconomic inequalities in BP are well documented, it remains unclear (1) how these inequalities have changed across time, given improvements over time in the detection and treatment of high BP (hypertension); (2) whether BP inequalities are present below and above hypertension treatment thresholds; and (3) whether socioeconomic position (SEP) across life has cumulative effects on BP. We sought to address these gaps using evidence from two complementary sources: birth cohort and repeated cross-sectional datasets.Methods: We used three British birth cohort studies-born in 1946, 1958, and 1970-with BP measured at 43-46 years (in 1989, 2003, and 2016), and 21 repeated cross-sectional datasets-the Health Survey for England (HSE), with BP measured among adults aged ≥ 25 years (1994-2016). Adult education attainment was used as an indicator of SEP in both datasets; childhood father's social class was used as an alternative indicator of (early life) SEP in cohorts. Adjusting for the expected average effects of antihypertensive medication use, we used linear regression to quantify SEP differences in mean systolic BP (SBP), and quantile regression to investigate whether inequalities differed across SBP distributions-below and above hypertension treatment thresholds.Results: In both datasets, lower educational attainment was associated with higher SBP, with similar absolute magnitudes of inequality across the studied period. Differences in SBP by education (Slope Index of Inequality) based on HSE data were 3.0 mmHg (95% CI 1.8, 4.2) in 1994 and 4.3 mmHg (2.3, 6.3) in 2016. Findings were similar for diastolic BP (DBP) and survey-defined hypertension. Inequalities were found across the SBP distribution in both datasets-below and above the hypertension threshold-yet were larger at the upper tail; in HSE, median SBP differences were 2.8 mmHg (1.7, 3.9) yet 5.6 mmHg (4.9, 6.4) at the 90th quantile. Adjustment for antihypertensive medication use had little impact on the magnitude of inequalities; in contrast, associations were largely attenuated after adjustment for body mass index. Finally, cohort data suggested that disadvantage in early and adult life had cumulative independent associations with BP: cohort-pooled differences in SBP were 5.0 mmHg (3.8, 6.1) in a score combining early life social class and own education, yet were 3.4 mmHg (2.4, 4.4) for education alone.Conclusion: Socioeconomic inequalities in BP have persisted from 1989 to 2016 in Britain/England, despite improved detection and treatment of high BP. To achieve future reductions in BP inequalities, policies addressing the wider structural determinants of high BP levels are likely required, particularly those curtailing the obesogenic environment-targeting detection and treatment alone is unlikely to be sufficient. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: With a suite of promising new RSV prophylactics on the horizon, including long-acting monoclonal antibodies and new vaccines, it is likely that one or more of these will replace the current monoclonal Palivizumab programme. However, choosing the optimal intervention programme will require balancing the costs of the programmes with the health benefits accrued.Methods: To compare the next generation of RSV prophylactics, we integrated a novel transmission model with an economic analysis. We estimated key epidemiological parameters by calibrating the model to 7 years of historical epidemiological data using a Bayesian approach. We determined the cost-effective and affordable maximum purchase price for a comprehensive suite of intervention programmes.Findings: Our transmission model suggests that maternal protection of infants is seasonal, with 38-62% of infants born with protection against RSV. Our economic analysis found that to cost-effectively and affordably replace the current monoclonal antibody Palivizumab programme with long-acting monoclonal antibodies, the purchase price per dose would have to be less than around £4350 but dropping to £200 for vaccinated heightened risk infants or £90 for all infants. A seasonal maternal vaccine would have to be priced less than £85 to be cost-effective and affordable. While vaccinating pre-school and school-age children is likely not cost-effective relative to elderly vaccination programmes, vaccinating the elderly is not likely to be affordable. Conversely, vaccinating infants at 2 months seasonally would be cost-effective and affordable if priced less than £80.Conclusions: In a setting with seasonal RSV epidemiology, maternal protection conferred to newborns is also seasonal, an assumption not previously incorporated in transmission models of RSV. For a country with seasonal RSV dynamics like England, seasonal programmes rather than year-round intervention programmes are always optimal. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The author reflects on the concerns associated with the advancement in sports nutrition, exercise and medicine in the London Olympic 2012 in England. He talks about cardiac events that have resulted in tragedy and successful resuscitation in the nation. He looks into the implementation of programs to prevent injuries among athletes, as well as improve their performance.

Background: Barriers to accessing mental health care during pregnancy and the first postnatal year (perinatal period) seem to be greater for ethnic minority women; however, there is no reliable large-scale data about their actual use of mental health services during this period. Our study aims to explore access rates to secondary mental health services, including involuntary admissions to psychiatric inpatient care and patterns of engagement for ethnic minority women aged 18+ who gave birth in 2017 in England, UK.Methods: Two datasets from the National Commissioning Data Repository, the Acute Inpatient Dataset and Mental Health Services Dataset, were linked. Datasets covering the full perinatal period for each woman were included. Rates were standardised by age and deprivation.Results: Out of 615,092 women who gave birth in England in 2017, 22,073 (3.5%) started a contact with mental health services during the perinatal period. In total, 713 (3.2%) were admitted to inpatient care, and 282 (39.5%) involuntarily. Ethnicity data was available for 98% of the sample. Black African, Asian and White Other women had significantly lower access to community mental health services and higher percentages of involuntary admissions than White British women. Black African, Asian and White Other women had a higher number of attended community contacts and fewer non-attendances/cancellations of appointments than White British women.Conclusion: Access to mental health services during the perinatal period varies significantly between women from different ethnic groups. Access to community mental health services should be facilitated for Black African, Asian and White Other women during the perinatal period, which may reduce rates of involuntary hospital admissions for these groups. The pattern of engagement with community services for women from these ethnicities indicates that access appears to be a problem rather than utilisation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Clinical guidelines and public health authorities lack recommendations on scalable approaches to defining and monitoring the occurrence and severity of bleeding in populations prescribed antithrombotic therapy.Methods: We examined linked primary care, hospital admission and death registry electronic health records (CALIBER 1998-2010, England) of patients with newly diagnosed atrial fibrillation, acute myocardial infarction, unstable angina or stable angina with the aim to develop algorithms for bleeding events. Using the developed bleeding phenotypes, Kaplan-Meier plots were used to estimate the incidence of bleeding events and we used Cox regression models to assess the prognosis for all-cause mortality, atherothrombotic events and further bleeding.Results: We present electronic health record phenotyping algorithms for bleeding based on bleeding diagnosis in primary or hospital care, symptoms, transfusion, surgical procedures and haemoglobin values. In validation of the phenotype, we estimated a positive predictive value of 0.88 (95% CI 0.64, 0.99) for hospitalised bleeding. Amongst 128,815 patients, 27,259 (21.2%) had at least 1 bleeding event, with 5-year risks of bleeding of 29.1%, 21.9%, 25.3% and 23.4% following diagnoses of atrial fibrillation, acute myocardial infarction, unstable angina and stable angina, respectively. Rates of hospitalised bleeding per 1000 patients more than doubled from 1.02 (95% CI 0.83, 1.22) in January 1998 to 2.68 (95% CI 2.49, 2.88) in December 2009 coinciding with the increased rates of antiplatelet and vitamin K antagonist prescribing. Patients with hospitalised bleeding and primary care bleeding, with or without markers of severity, were at increased risk of all-cause mortality and atherothrombotic events compared to those with no bleeding. For example, the hazard ratio for all-cause mortality was 1.98 (95% CI 1.86, 2.11) for primary care bleeding with markers of severity and 1.99 (95% CI 1.92, 2.05) for hospitalised bleeding without markers of severity, compared to patients with no bleeding.Conclusions: Electronic health record bleeding phenotyping algorithms offer a scalable approach to monitoring bleeding in the population. Incidence of bleeding has doubled in incidence since 1998, affects one in four cardiovascular disease patients, and is associated with poor prognosis. Efforts are required to tackle this iatrogenic epidemic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The presence of additional chronic conditions has a significant impact on the treatment and management of type 2 diabetes (T2DM). Little is known about the patterns of comorbidities in this population. The aims of this study are to quantify comorbidity patterns in people with T2DM, to estimate the prevalence of six chronic conditions in 2027 and to identify clusters of similar conditions.Methods: We used the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) linked with the Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD) data to identify patients diagnosed with T2DM between 2007 and 2017. 102,394 people met the study inclusion criteria. We calculated the crude and age-standardised prevalence of 18 chronic conditions present at and after the T2DM diagnosis. We analysed longitudinally the 6 most common conditions and forecasted their prevalence in 2027 using linear regression. We used agglomerative hierarchical clustering to identify comorbidity clusters. These analyses were repeated on subgroups stratified by gender and deprivation.Results: More people living in the most deprived areas had ≥ 1 comorbidities present at the time of diagnosis (72% of females; 64% of males) compared to the most affluent areas (67% of females; 59% of males). Depression prevalence increased in all strata and was more common in the most deprived areas. Depression was predicted to affect 33% of females and 15% of males diagnosed with T2DM in 2027. Moderate clustering tendencies were observed, with concordant conditions grouped together and some variations between groups of different demographics.Conclusions: Comorbidities are common in this population, and high between-patient variability in comorbidity patterns emphasises the need for patient-centred healthcare. Mental health is a growing concern, and there is a need for interventions that target both physical and mental health in this population. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]