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Background: A comprehensive overview of artificial intelligence (AI) for cardiovascular disease (CVD) prediction and a screening tool of AI models (AI-Ms) for independent external validation are lacking. This systematic review aims to identify, describe, and appraise AI-Ms of CVD prediction in the general and special populations and develop a new independent validation score (IVS) for AI-Ms replicability evaluation. Methods: PubMed, Web of Science, Embase, and IEEE library were searched up to July 2021. Data extraction and analysis were performed for the populations, distribution, predictors, algorithms, etc. The risk of bias was evaluated with the prediction risk of bias assessment tool (PROBAST). Subsequently, we designed IVS for model replicability evaluation with five steps in five items, including transparency of algorithms, performance of models, feasibility of reproduction, risk of reproduction, and clinical implication, respectively. The review is registered in PROSPERO (No. CRD42021271789). Results: In 20,887 screened references, 79 articles (82.5% in 2017–2021) were included, which contained 114 datasets (67 in Europe and North America, but 0 in Africa). We identified 486 AI-Ms, of which the majority were in development (n = 380), but none of them had undergone independent external validation. A total of 66 idiographic algorithms were found; however, 36.4% were used only once and only 39.4% over three times. A large number of different predictors (range 5–52,000, median 21) and large-span sample size (range 80–3,660,000, median 4466) were observed. All models were at high risk of bias according to PROBAST, primarily due to the incorrect use of statistical methods. IVS analysis confirmed only 10 models as "recommended"; however, 281 and 187 were "not recommended" and "warning," respectively. Conclusion: AI has led the digital revolution in the field of CVD prediction, but is still in the early stage of development as the defects of research design, report, and evaluation systems. The IVS we developed may contribute to independent external validation and the development of this field. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Context-specific interventions may contribute to sustained behaviour change and improved health outcomes. We evaluated the real-world effects of supermarket nudging and pricing strategies and mobile physical activity coaching on diet quality, food-purchasing behaviour, walking behaviour, and cardiometabolic risk markers. Methods: This parallel cluster-randomised controlled trial included supermarkets in socially disadvantaged neighbourhoods across the Netherlands with regular shoppers aged 30–80 years. Supermarkets were randomised to receive co-created nudging and pricing strategies promoting healthier purchasing (N = 6) or not (N = 6). Nudges targeted 9% of supermarket products and pricing strategies 3%. Subsequently, participants were individually randomised to a control (step counter app) or intervention arm (step counter and mobile coaching app) to promote walking. The primary outcome was the average change in diet quality (low (0) to high (150)) over all follow-up time points measured with a validated 40-item food frequency questionnaire at baseline and 3, 6, and 12 months. Secondary outcomes included healthier food purchasing (loyalty card-derived), daily step count (step counter app), cardiometabolic risk markers (lipid profile and HbA1c via finger prick, and waist circumference via measuring tape), and supermarket customer satisfaction (questionnaire-based: very unsatisfied (1) to very satisfied (7)), evaluated using linear mixed-models. Healthy supermarket sales (an exploratory outcome) were analysed via controlled interrupted time series analyses. Results: Of 361 participants (162 intervention, 199 control), 73% were female, the average age was 58 (SD 11) years, and 42% were highly educated. Compared to the control arm, the intervention arm showed no statistically significant average changes over time in diet quality (β − 1.1 (95% CI − 3.8 to 1.7)), percentage healthy purchasing (β 0.7 (− 2.7 to 4.0)), step count (β − 124.0 (− 723.1 to 475.1), or any of the cardiometabolic risk markers. Participants in the intervention arm scored 0.3 points (0.1 to 0.5) higher on customer satisfaction on average over time. Supermarket-level sales were unaffected (β − 0.0 (− 0.0 to 0.0)). Conclusions: Co-created nudging and pricing strategies that predominantly targeted healthy products via nudges were unable to increase healthier food purchases and intake nor improve cardiometabolic health. The mobile coaching intervention did not affect step count. Governmental policy measures are needed to ensure more impactful supermarket modifications that promote healthier purchases. Trial registration: Dutch Trial Register ID NL7064, 30 May 2018, https://www.onderzoekmetmensen.nl/en/trial/20990 [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) have contributed to a significant advancement in the treatment of cancer, leading to improved clinical outcomes in many individuals with advanced disease. Both preclinical and clinical investigations have shown that ICIs are associated with atherosclerosis and other cardiovascular events; however, the exact mechanism underlying this relationship has not been clarified. Methods: Patients diagnosed with stages III or IV non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) at the Wuhan Union Hospital from March 1, 2020, to April 30, 2022, were included in this retrospective study. Coronary artery calcium (CAC) volume and score were assessed in a subset of patients during non-ECG-gated chest CT scans at baseline and 3, 6, and 12 months after treatment. Propensity score matching (PSM) was performed in a 1:1 ratio to balance the baseline characteristics between the two groups. Results: Overall, 1458 patients (487 with ICI therapy and 971 without ICI therapy) were enrolled in this cardiovascular cohort study. After PSM, 446 patients were included in each group. During the entire period of follow-up (median follow-up 23.1 months), 24 atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) events (4.9%) occurred in the ICI group, and 14 ASCVD events (1.4%) in the non-ICI group, before PSM; 24 ASCVD events (5.4%) occurred in the ICI group and 5 ASCVD events (1.1%) in the non-ICI group after PSM. The CAC imaging study group comprised 113 patients with ICI therapy and 133 patients without ICI therapy. After PSM, each group consisted of 75 patients. In the ICI group, the CAC volume/score increased from 93.4 mm3/96.9 (baseline) to 125.1 mm3/132.8 (at 12 months). In the non-ICI group, the CAC volume/score was increased from 70.1 mm3/68.8 (baseline) to 84.4 mm3/87.9 (at 12 months). After PSM, the CAC volume/score was increased from 85.1 mm3/76.4 (baseline) to 111.8 mm3/121.1 (12 months) in the ICI group and was increased from 74.9 mm3/76.8 (baseline) to 109.3 mm3/98.7 (12 months) in the non-ICI group. Both cardiovascular events and CAC progression were increased after the initiation of ICIs. Conclusions: Treatment with ICIs was associated with a higher rate of ASCVD events and a noticeable increase in CAC progression. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Genetics play an important role in risk for cardiometabolic diseases—including type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular disease and obesity. Existing research has explored the clinical utility of genetic risk tools such as polygenic risk scores—and whether interventions communicating genetic risk information using these tools can impact on individuals' cognitive appraisals of disease risk and/or preventative health behaviours. Previous systematic reviews suggest mixed results. To expand current understanding and address knowledge gaps, we undertook an interpretive, reflexive method of evidence synthesis—questioning the theoretical basis behind current interventions that communicate genetic risk information and exploring how the effects of genetic risk tools can be fully harnessed for cardiometabolic diseases. Methods: We obtained 189 records from a combination of database, website and grey literature searches—supplemented with reference chaining and expert subject knowledge within the review team. Using pre-defined critical interpretive synthesis methods, quantitative and qualitative evidence was synthesised and critiqued alongside theoretical understanding from surrounding fields of behavioural and social sciences. Findings: Existing interventions communicating genetic risk information focus predominantly on the "self", targeting individual-level cognitive appraisals, such as perceived risk and perceived behavioural control. This approach risks neglecting the role of contextual factors and upstream determinants that can reinforce individuals' interpretations of risk. It also assumes target populations to embody an "ascetic subject of compliance"—the idea of a patient who strives to comply diligently with professional medical advice, logically and rationally adopting any recommended lifestyle changes. We developed a synthesising argument—"beyond the ascetic subject of compliance"—grounded in three major limitations of this perspective: (1) difficulty applying existing theories/models to diverse populations, (2) the role of familial variables and (3) the need for a life course perspective. Conclusions: Interventions communicating genetic risk information should account for wider influences that can affect individuals' responses to risk at different levels—including through interactions with their family systems, socio-cultural environments and wider health provision. Protocol registration: PROSPERO CRD42021289269 [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: We aim to examine the association between ultra-processed foods (UPF) consumption and cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk and to identify plasma proteins associated with UPF. Methods: This prospective cohort study included 26,369 participants from the Swedish Malmö Diet and Cancer Study, established in 1991–1996. Dietary intake was assessed using a modified diet history method, and UPF consumption was estimated using the NOVA classification system. A total of 88 selected CVD-related proteins were measured among 4475 subjects. Incident CVD (coronary heart disease and ischemic stroke) was defined as a hospital admission or death through registers. Cox proportional hazards regression models were performed to analyze the associations of UPF intake with risks of CVD. Linear regression models were used to identify the plasma proteins associated with UPF intake. Results: During 24.6 years of median follow-up, 6236 participants developed CVD, of whom 3566 developed coronary heart disease and 3272 developed ischemic stroke. The adjusted hazard ratio (95% confidence interval) in the 4th versus 1st quartile of UPF was 1.18 (1.08, 1.29) for CVD, 1.20 (1.07, 1.35) for coronary heart disease, and 1.17 (1.03, 1.32) for ischemic stroke. Plasma proteins interleukin 18, tumor necrosis factor receptor 2, macrophage colony-stimulating factor 1, thrombomodulin, tumor necrosis factor receptor 1, hepatocyte growth factor, stem cell factor, resistin, C–C motif chemokine 3, and endothelial cell-specific molecule 1 were positively associated with UPF after correcting for multiple testing. Conclusions: Our study showed that high UPF intake increased the risk of CVD and was associated with several protein biomarkers. Future studies are warranted to validate these findings and assess the potential pathways between UPF intake and CVD. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Progressive reduction of sodium intake is an attractive approach for addressing excessive salt intake, but evidence for this strategy in real practice is limited. We aimed to determine the feasibility, effectiveness, and safety of a progressive sodium intake reduction intervention in real-world setting. Methods: We randomized 48 residential elderly care facilities in China, with 1612 participants aged 55 years and older, to either progressive reduction (PR, 24 facilities) or no reduction (NR, 24 facilities) of the supply of study salt to the kitchens of these facilities for 2 years. The primary efficacy outcome was systolic blood pressure (SBP) at any scheduled follow-up visit. Secondary efficacy outcomes included diastolic blood pressure (DBP) at any scheduled follow-up visit, and major adverse cardiovascular events (comprising non-fatal stroke, non-fatal myocardial infarction, hospitalized non-fatal heart failure, or vascular death) and total mortality. The perception of food saltiness, the addition of out-of-study salt in meals, and 24-h urinary sodium excretion were used as process indicators. Results: Pre-specified analysis per randomization found no effect of the intervention on the 2-year overall mean systolic and diastolic blood pressure (SBP, DBP) and any other outcomes. However, post hoc analysis showed that the intervention effect on blood pressure varied over multiple follow-up visits (p for interaction < 0.046) and presented favorable differences at the 24-month visit (SBP = − 3.0 mmHg, 95%CI = − 5.6, − 0.5; p = 0.020; DBP = − 2.0 mmHg, 95%CI − 3.4, − 0.63; p = 0.004). The effect on 24-h sodium was non-significant (− 8.4 mmol, 95%CI = − 21.8 to 4.9, p = 0.216), though fewer participants with NR than with PR reported food tasting bland (odds ratio 0.46; 95%CI 0.29 to 0.73; p = 0.001). Reporting of bland food taste and other process measures indicated that intervention delivery and adherence were not fully achieved as designed. Conclusions: The experience of this real-world study demonstrated that achieving acceptability and sustainability of the progressive sodium intake reduction strategy among older adults was challenging, but it has shown potential for effectiveness in these and potentially other residential settings if the lessons of DECIDE-Salt are applied in further studies. Trial registration: ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT03290716). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: This study aimed to determine whether primary parathyroid cancer patients were associated with increased metabolic and cardiovascular comorbidities in comparison to the general population. Methods: We used the National Taiwan Cancer Registry Database to construct a cohort of patients with parathyroid cancer from January 1, 2004, to December 31, 2019. We compared the incidence of hypertension, diabetes mellitus, hyperlipidemia, atrial fibrillation, coronary heart disease, and heart failure with the general population matched based on a propensity score in a one-to-five fashion. Results: A total of 72 parathyroid cancer patients and 360 matched general population (mean age: 55 years; 59% women) were included, with different exclusive numbers for each metabolic and cardiovascular comorbidity cohort. The number of cases based on a total of 2347.7 person-years of observation included 53 deaths, 29 hypertension, 9 diabetes, 13 hyperlipidemia, 10 atrial fibrillation, 18 coronary artery disease, and 13 heart failure. According to multivariate analysis, parathyroid cancer remained significantly associated with diabetes [hazard ratio (HR): 9.28; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.72–50.07], hyperlipidemia (HR: 5.86; 95% CI: 1.61–21.31), and heart failure (HR: 4.46; 95% CI: 1.18–16.84). Sub-distribution of competing mortality events and subgroup analysis showed robust evidence of metabolic and cardiovascular comorbidities. This national cohort study demonstrated that adult parathyroid cancer patients had a significantly higher incidence of diabetes mellitus, hyperlipidemia, and heart failure than the general population. Conclusions: An increased risk of metabolic and cardiac comorbidities among parathyroid cancer patients required great caution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Chronic kidney disease (CKD) and non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) frequently co-exist. We assess the impact of having NAFLD on adverse clinical outcomes and all-cause mortality for people with CKD. Methods: A total of 18,073 UK Biobank participants identified to have CKD (eGFR < 60 ml/min/1.73 m2 or albuminuria > 3 mg/mmol) were prospectively followed up by electronic linkage to hospital and death records. Cox-regression estimated the hazard ratios (HR) associated with having NAFLD (elevated hepatic steatosis index or ICD-code) and NAFLD fibrosis (elevated fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) score or NAFLD fibrosis score (NFS)) on cardiovascular events (CVE), progression to end-stage renal disease (ESRD) and all-cause mortality. Results: 56.2% of individuals with CKD had NAFLD at baseline, and 3.0% and 7.7% had NAFLD fibrosis according to a FIB-4 > 2.67 and NFS ≥ 0.676, respectively. The median follow-up was 13 years. In univariate analysis, NAFLD was associated with an increased risk of CVE (HR 1.49 [1.38–1.60]), all-cause mortality (HR 1.22 [1.14–1.31]) and ESRD (HR 1.26 [1.02–1.54]). Following multivariable adjustment, NAFLD remained an independent risk factor for CVE overall (HR 1.20 [1.11–1.30], p < 0.0001), but not ACM or ESRD. In univariate analysis, elevated NFS and FIB-4 scores were associated with increased risk of CVE (HR 2.42 [2.09–2.80] and 1.64 [1.30–2.08]) and all-cause mortality (HR 2.82 [2.48–3.21] and 1.82 [1.47–2.24]); the NFS score was also associated with ESRD (HR 5.15 [3.52–7.52]). Following full adjustment, the NFS remained associated with an increased incidence of CVE (HR 1.19 [1.01–1.40]) and all-cause mortality (HR 1.31 [1.13–1.52]). Conclusions: In people with CKD, NAFLD is associated with an increased risk of CVE, and the NAFLD fibrosis score is associated with an elevated risk of CVE and worse survival. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Although social isolation has been associated with a higher mortality risk, little is known about the potential different impacts of face-to-face and non-face-to-face isolation on mortality. We examined the prospective associations of four types of social isolation, including face-to-face isolation with co-inhabitants and non-co-inhabitants, non-face-to-face isolation, and club/organization isolation, with all-cause and cause-specific mortality separately.Methods: This prospective cohort study included 30,430 adults in Guangzhou Biobank Cohort Study (GBCS), who were recruited during 2003-2008 and followed up till Dec 2019.Results: During an average of 13.2 years of follow-up, 4933 deaths occurred during 396,466 person-years. Participants who lived alone had higher risks of all-cause (adjusted hazard ratio (AHR) 1.24; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.04-1.49) and cardiovascular disease (CVD) (1.61; 1.20-2.03) mortality than those who had ≥ 3 co-habitant contact after adjustment for thirteen potential confounders. Compared with those who had ≥ 1 time/month non-co-inhabitant contact, those without such contact had higher risks of all-cause (1.60; 1.20-2.00) and CVD (1.91; 1.20-2.62) mortality. The corresponding AHR (95% CI) in participants without telephone/mail contact were 1.27 (1.14-1.42) for all-cause, 1.30 (1.08-1.56) for CVD, and 1.37 (1.12-1.67) for other-cause mortality. However, no association of club/organization contact with the above mortality and no association of all four types of isolation with cancer mortality were found.Conclusions: In this cohort study, face-to-face and non-face-to-face isolation were both positively associated with all-cause, CVD-, and other-cause (but not cancer) mortality. Our finding suggests a need to promote non-face-to-face contact among middle-aged and older adults. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Contested evidence suggests that obesity confers no risk to health in people who have a healthy lifestyle, particularly if there are no metabolic complications of obesity. The aim was to examine the association between adherence to lifestyle recommendations and the absence of metabolic complications on the incident or fatal cardiovascular disease and all-cause mortality across different categories of body mass index (BMI).Methods: This contemporary prospective cohort study included 339,902 adults without cardiovascular disease at baseline, recruited between 2006 and 2010 from the UK Biobank and followed until 2018-2020. The main exposures were four healthy lifestyle behaviours: never smoker, alcohol intake ≤ 112g/ week, 150 min moderate physical activity or 75 min vigorous activity/week, ≥ 5 servings of fruit or vegetables/day, and we assessed these overall and across the BMI groups. Metabolic complications of excess adiposity were hypertension, diabetes and hyperlipidaemia, and we examined whether obesity was associated with increased risk in the absence of these complications. The outcomes were all-cause mortality, death from, and incident cardiovascular disease (CVD).Results: Individuals who met four lifestyle recommendations but had excess weight had higher all-cause mortality; for BMI 30-34.9 kg/m2, the hazard ratio (HR) was 1.42 (95% confidence interval 1.20 to 1.68), and for BMI ≥ 35 kg/m2, HR was 2.17 (95% CI 1.71 to 2.76). The risk was lower, but still increased for people with no metabolic complications; for all-cause mortality, BMI 30-34.9 kg/m2 had an HR of 1.09 (95% CI 0.99 to 1.21), and BMI ≥ 35 kg/m2 had an HR of 1.44 (95% CI 1.19 to 1.74) for all-cause mortality. Similar patterns were found for incident and fatal CVD.Conclusions: Meeting healthy lifestyle recommendations, or the absence of metabolic complications of obesity offsets some, but not all, of the risk of subsequent CVD, and premature mortality in people with overweight or obesity. Offering support to achieve and maintain a healthy weight and to adopt healthy behaviours are likely to be important components in effective preventative healthcare. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Excessive sodium consumption is one of the leading dietary risk factors for non-communicable diseases, including cardiovascular disease (CVD), mediated by high blood pressure. Brazil has implemented voluntary sodium reduction targets with food industries since 2011. This study aimed to analyse the potential health and economic impact of these sodium reduction targets in Brazil from 2013 to 2032. Methods: We developed a microsimulation of a close-to-reality synthetic population (IMPACTNCD-BR) to evaluate the potential health benefits of setting voluntary upper limits for sodium content as part of the Brazilian government strategy. The model estimates CVD deaths and cases prevented or postponed, and disease treatment costs. Model inputs were informed by the 2013 National Health Survey, the 2008–2009 Household Budget Survey, and high-quality meta-analyses, assuming that all individuals were exposed to the policy proportionally to their sodium intake from processed food. Costs included costs of the National Health System on CVD treatment and informal care costs. The primary outcome measures of the model are cardiovascular disease cases and deaths prevented or postponed over 20 years (2013–2032), stratified by age and sex. Results: The study found that the application of the Brazilian voluntary sodium targets for packaged foods between 2013 and 2032 could prevent or postpone approximately 110,000 CVD cases (95% uncertainty intervals (UI): 28,000 to 260,000) among men and 70,000 cases among women (95% UI: 16,000 to 170,000), and also prevent or postpone approximately 2600 CVD deaths (95% UI: − 1000 to 11,000), 55% in men. The policy could also produce a net cost saving of approximately US$ 220 million (95% UI: US$ 54 to 520 million) in medical costs to the Brazilian National Health System for the treatment of CHD and stroke and save approximately US$ 71 million (95% UI: US$ 17 to170 million) in informal costs. Conclusion: Brazilian voluntary sodium targets could generate substantial health and economic impacts. The reduction in sodium intake that was likely achieved from the voluntary targets indicates that sodium reduction in Brazil must go further and faster to achieve the national and World Health Organization goals for sodium intake. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]