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Purpose: This study aims to evaluate the effectiveness of mitigation strategies and analyze the impact of human behavior on the transmission of Mpox. The results can provide guidance to public health authorities on comprehensive prevention and control for the new Mpox virus strain in the Democratic Republic of Congo as of December 2023. Methods: We develop a two-layer Watts-Strogatz network model. The basic reproduction number is calculated using the next-generation matrix approach. Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) optimization algorithm is used to fit Mpox cases in Canada into the network model. Numerical simulations are used to assess the impact of mitigation strategies and human behavior on the final epidemic size. Results: Our results show that the contact transmission rate of low-risk groups and susceptible humans increases when the contact transmission rate of high-risk groups and susceptible humans is controlled as the Mpox epidemic spreads. The contact transmission rate of high-risk groups after May 18, 2022, is approximately 20% lower than that before May 18, 2022. Our findings indicate a positive correlation between the basic reproduction number and the level of heterogeneity in human contacts, with the basic reproduction number estimated at 2.3475 (95% CI: 0.0749–6.9084). Reducing the average number of sexual contacts to two per week effectively reduces the reproduction number to below one. Conclusion: We need to pay attention to the re-emergence of the epidemics caused by low-risk groups when an outbreak dominated by high-risk groups is under control. Numerical simulations show that reducing the average number of sexual contacts to two per week is effective in slowing down the rapid spread of the epidemic. Our findings offer guidance for the public health authorities of the Democratic Republic of Congo in developing effective mitigation strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Crimean Congo hemorrhagic fever (CCHF) is endemic in Southern Mauritania where recurrent outbreaks have been constantly observed since the 1980's. The present study is the first to assess CCHFV antibodies and RNA in humans. Methods: A retrospective study was conducted using 263 humans and 1380 domestic animals serum samples, and 282 tick specimens of Hyalomma genus collected from 54 settings in 12 provinces across Mauritania. Antibodies targeting CCHF viral nucleoprotein were detected in animal and human sera using double-antigen ELISA. CCHFV specific RNA was detected in human and animal sera as well as tick supernatants using a CCHFV real time RT-PCR kit. Individual characteristics of sampled hosts were collected at the same time and data were geo-referenced. Satellite data of several environmental and climatic factors, were downloaded from publicly available datasets, and combined with data on livestock mobility, animal and human density, road accessibility and individual characteristics to identify possible risk factors for CCHFV spatial distribution. To this end, multivariate logistic models were developed for each host category (human, small and large ruminants). Results: The overall CCHFV antibody prevalence was 11.8% [95% CI: 8.4–16.3] in humans (17.9% in 2020 and 5.4% in 2021; p = 0.0017) and 33.1% (95% CI: 30.1–36.3) in livestock. CCHFV-specific antibodies were detected in 91 (18.1%) out of 502 sheep, 43 (9.0%) out of 477 goats, 144 (90.5%) out of 161 dromedaries and 179 (74.6%) out of 240 cattle. CCHFV RNA was detected in only 2 (0.7%) sera out of 263 animals herders samples from Hodh El Gharbi province and in 32 (11.3%) out of 282 Hyalomma ticks. In humans as well as in animals, seropositivity was not associated with sex or age groups. The multivariate analysis determined the role of different environmental, climatic and anthropic factors in the spatial distribution of the disease with animal mobility and age being identified as risk factors. Conclusion: Results of the present study demonstrate the potential risk of CCHF for human population in Mauritania primarily those living in rural areas in close vicinity with animals. Future studies should prioritize an integrative human and veterinary approach for better understanding and managing Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The World Health Organization's (WHO) 2030 goal of eradicating Hepatitis B and C viruses must also include HIV co-infected children. However, data on the prevalence of this condition are lacking in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), which is considered as one of the countries with high-prevalence of these viruses. The need to assess the extent of this co-infection in the children of this country is therefore important in order to capitalize on efforts to improve prevention and management of both infections. Methodology: This is a comparative cross-sectional study conducted from February 04, 2015 to September 03, 2019 at 14 General Reference Hospitals with a pediatric HIV management programme in South Kivu province. The study compared the frequency of hepatitis B (HBV) and C (HCV) markers and factors associated with these two viruses in two equal groups: HIV-positive and HIV-negative children. The data were analyzed using the SPSS version 20.0 software and the significance level was set at p-value less than 0.05. Results: The study involved a total of 594 children, 297 of whom were HIV-positive and 297 negative. HBsAg was found in 8.7% of HIV-positive patients and 0.7% for HCV antibodies. On the other hand, among the HIV-negative patients, the proportion of HBsAg was 0.7% but no cases with anti-HCV antibodies were detected. HIV status increases by 14 times the risk of co-occurring with HBV [OR 14.1 (95% CI: 3.33–60.2); p < 0.001] and this risk is not apparent for HCV (p = 0.297). Multivariate logistic regression showed that history of jaundice in the family (aOR:4.19;95% CI: 2.12–11.59), recent hospitalization (aOR:10.7;95% CI: 6.69–17.2), surgery (aOR: 3.24;95% CI: 1.18–8.92), piercing (aOR: 4.26;95% CI: 1.70–10.7) and transfusion in the last 6 months (aOR: 2.69;95% CI: 1.55–4.67) were significantly associated with higher risk of being HBV- HIV co-infected. Conclusion: This study investigated the importance of hepatitis viral co-infections in HIV-positive children in South Kivu. Particular attention should be paid to prevention and early detection of these co-infections in this population. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The COVID-19 pandemic has impacted the world negatively with huge health and socioeconomic consequences. This study estimated the seasonality, trajectory, and projection of COVID-19 cases to understand the dynamics of the disease spread and inform response interventions. Method: Descriptive analysis of daily confirmed COVID-19 cases from January 2020 to 12th March 2022 was conducted in four purposefully selected sub-Saharan African countries (Nigeria, Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Senegal, and Uganda). We extrapolated the COVID-19 data from (2020 to 2022) to 2023 using a trigonometric time series model. A decomposition time series method was used to examine the seasonality in the data. Results: Nigeria had the highest rate of spread (β) of COVID-19 (β = 381.2) while DRC had the least rate (β = 119.4). DRC, Uganda, and Senegal had a similar pattern of COVID-19 spread from the onset through December 2020. The average doubling time in COVID-19 case count was highest in Uganda (148 days) and least in Nigeria (83 days). A seasonal variation was found in the COVID-19 data for all four countries but the timing of the cases showed some variations across countries. More cases are expected in the 1st (January-March) and 3rd (July–September) quarters of the year in Nigeria and Senegal, and in the 2nd (April-June) and 3rd (October-December) quarters in DRC and Uganda. Conclusion: Our findings show a seasonality that may warrant consideration for COVID-19 periodic interventions in the peak seasons in the preparedness and response strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Strategy to mitigate various Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreaks are focusing on Infection Prevention and Control (IPC) capacity building, supportive supervision and IPC supply donation. This study was conducted to assess the impact of a Pay for Performance Strategy (PPS) in improving IPC performance in healthcare facilities (HF) in context of the 2018–2019 Nord Kivu/ Democratic Republic of the Congo EVD outbreak. Methods: A quasi-experimental study was conducted analysing the impact of a PPS on the IPC performance. HF were selected following the inclusion criteria upon informed consent from the facility manager and the National Department of Health. Initial and process assessment of IPC performance was conducted by integrating response teams using a validated IPC assessment tool for HF. A bundle of interventions was then implemented in the different HF including training of health workers, donation of IPC kits, supportive supervision during the implementation of IPC activities, and monetary reward. IPC practices in HF were assessment every two weeks during the intervention period to measure the impact. The IPC assessment tool had 34 questions aggregated in 8 different thematic areas: triage and isolation capacity, IPC committee in HF, hand hygiene, PPE, decontamination and sterilization, linen management, hospital environment and Waste management. Data were analysed using descriptive statistics and analytical approaches according to assumptions. R software (version 4.0.3) was used for all the analyses and a p-value of 0.05 was considered as the threshold for statistically significant results. Results: Among 69 HF involved in this study, 48 were private facilities and 21 state facilities. The median baseline IPC score was 44% (IQR: 21–65%); this IPC median score reached respectively after 2, 4, 6 and 8 weeks 68% (IQR: 59–76%), 79% (71–84%), 76% (68–85%) and 79% (74–85%). The improvement of IPC score was statistically significative. Spearman's rank-order correlation revealed the associated between proportion of trained HW and IPC score performance after 8 weeks of interventions (rs =.280, p-value = 0.02). Conclusion: Pay for Performance Strategy was proved effective in improving healthcare facilities capacity in infection prevention and control practice in context of 2018 EVD outbreak in Nord Kivu. However, the strategy for long-term sustainability of IPC needs further provision. More studies are warranted on the HW and patients' perceptions toward IPC program implementation in context of Nord Kivu Province. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Protection by preventive Ebola vaccines has been demonstrated in clinical trials, but a complete picture of real-world effectiveness is lacking. Our previous study modeling the impact of preventively vaccinating healthcare workers (HCW) alone or with a proportion of the general population (GP) estimated significant reductions in incidence and mortality. The model assumed 100% vaccine efficacy, which is unlikely in the real world. We enhanced this model to account for lower vaccine efficacy and to factor in reduced infectiousness and lower case fatality rate in vaccinated individuals with breakthrough infections.Methods: The previous model was enhanced to still permit a risk, although lower, for vaccinated individuals to become infected. The enhanced model, calibrated with data from epidemics in Sierra Leone (SL) and North Kivu, Democratic Republic of the Congo, helped evaluate the impact of preventive Ebola vaccination in different scenarios based on different vaccine efficacy rates (90% and 30% reductions in infection risk in the base and conservative scenarios, respectively; additionally, both scenarios with 50% reductions in infectiousness and mortality) and vaccination coverage among HCWs (30%, 90%) and GP (0%, 5%, and 10%).Results: The base scenario estimated that, depending upon the proportions of vaccinated HCWs and GP, 33-85% of cases and 34-87% of deaths during the 2014 SL epidemic and 42-89% of cases and 41-89% of deaths during the 2018 North Kivu epidemic would be averted versus no vaccination. Corresponding estimates for the conservative scenario were: 23-74% of cases and 23-77% of deaths averted during the SL epidemic and 31-80% of both cases and deaths averted during the North Kivu epidemic.Conclusions: Preventive vaccination targeting HCW alone or with GP may significantly reduce the size and mortality of an EVD outbreak, even with modest efficacy and coverage. Vaccines may also confer additional benefits through reduced infectiousness and mortality in breakthrough cases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]