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Abstract Background We compared records of the body mass and roosting behavior of Pacific dunlins (Calidris alpina pacifica) wintering on the Fraser River estuary in southwest British Columbia between the 1970s and the 1990s. 'Over-ocean flocking' is a relatively safe but energetically-expensive alternative to roosting during the high tide period. Fat stores offer protection against starvation, but are a liability in escape performance, and increase flight costs. Peregrine falcons (Falco peregrinus) were scarce on the Fraser River estuary in the 1970s, but their numbers have since recovered, and they prey heavily on dunlins. The increase has altered the balance between predation and starvation risks for dunlins, and thus how dunlins regulate roosting behavior and body mass to manage the danger. We therefore predicted an increase in the frequency of over-ocean flocking as well as a decrease in the amount of fat carried by dunlins over these decades. Results Historical observations indicate that over-ocean flocking of dunlins was rare prior to the mid-1990s and became common thereafter. Residual body masses of dunlins were higher in the 1970s, with the greatest difference between the decades coinciding with peak peregrine abundance in October, and shrinking over the course of winter as falcon seasonal abundance declines. Whole-body fat content of dunlins was lower in the 1990s, and accounted for most of the change in body mass. Conclusions Pacific dunlins appear to manage danger in a complex manner that involves adjustments both in fat reserves and roosting behavior. We discuss reasons why over-ocean flocking has apparently become more common on the Fraser estuary than at other dunlin wintering sites.