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US small-business optimism increased in October, with the National Federation of Independent Business sentiment index rising to 93.7, matching the highest reading since early 2022. The uncertainty index also reached a record high but is expected to decrease now that the election is over. The improvement in sentiment was largely influenced by political factors, with businesses showing more positive outlooks for the economy and sales expectations. Despite concerns about inflation and labor quality, the proposal to lower the corporate tax rate may alleviate some of these issues. [Extracted from the article]

Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves' first UK budget faced market skepticism due to concerns about inflationary impacts. Despite this, the Bank of England, led by Governor Andrew Bailey, maintained a supportive stance, with plans for further rate cuts. The budget, which includes significant tax increases, has led to economic ripples, impacting hiring and wage growth in the UK. The BOE's outlook remains positive, forecasting economic growth, lower unemployment, and improved post-tax labor income under Reeves' budget. [Extracted from the article]

The article reports that hiring at UK businesses experienced a significant decline, attributed to employers holding off on recruitment due to anticipated tax increases in the upcoming budget. Wages for permanent jobs also slowed in October, with vacancies decreasing as well. The Bank of England is closely monitoring these developments for potential impacts on inflation and interest rates. The decision to raise taxes and increase the minimum wage is expected to lead businesses to limit hiring and pay raises to protect profit margins. [Extracted from the article]

In October, US payrolls increased by just 12,000, the slowest pace since 2020, due to severe hurricanes and a major strike at Boeing Co. The unemployment rate remained at 4.1%, with hourly earnings rising slightly. Manufacturing jobs saw a significant decline, largely due to strike activity. The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates following this data, indicating a softening labor market. [Extracted from the article]

In October, US payrolls increased by just 12,000, the slowest pace since 2020, due to severe hurricanes and a major strike at Boeing Co. The unemployment rate remained at 4.1%, with hourly earnings rising slightly. Economists and policymakers are cautious about interpreting the data, as the labor market appears to be cooling gradually. Despite a strong economy, high prices have led to consumer concerns, and wage growth has eased due to a growing pool of available workers. [Extracted from the article]

In October, US payrolls increased by just 12,000, the slowest pace since 2020, due to severe hurricanes and a major strike. The unemployment rate remained at 4.1%, with hourly earnings staying firm. Economists and policymakers are cautious about interpreting the report, as the labor market appears to be cooling gradually. Despite a solid economy, high prices have led to consumer concerns, with inflation easing but still impacting prices for goods and services. [Extracted from the article]

The October employment report indicates a weak job market, prompting the Federal Reserve to consider cutting interest rates by a quarter point at their upcoming meeting. Factors such as hurricanes and a strike at Boeing Co. have impacted job numbers, with hiring in previous months also weaker than initially estimated. Despite a strong economy, policymakers are expected to lower borrowing costs gradually to address labor market weaknesses. [Extracted from the article]

The American Climate Corps, a program aimed at placing young people in temporary jobs related to climate and federal service, faces an uncertain future if Donald Trump wins the US election. The program, with 15,000 members, focuses on tasks like cleaning up after wildfires and making homes more energy efficient. Despite potential political shifts, the program aims to continue serving communities across the country. The program's success and growth depend on capturing public imagination and support. [Extracted from the article]

In September, US job openings decreased to the lowest level since early 2021, while layoffs increased, indicating a slowdown in the labor market. The decline in job vacancies was seen across various industries, with fewer workers voluntarily quitting their jobs. Despite this data, other indicators suggest a strong labor market and economy, leading to speculation about the Federal Reserve's interest-rate decisions. The report also highlights upcoming economic data releases and the impact of external factors like strikes and natural disasters on employment figures. [Extracted from the article]

The US job market saw a decline in job openings in September, reaching the lowest level since early 2021, with layoffs increasing. This trend reflects a slowdown in the labor market, as vacancies decreased across various industries. Despite this, other indicators suggest a strong economy, leading to reduced expectations of a significant interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. The upcoming October employment report may be impacted by external factors such as strikes and natural disasters, making it challenging to interpret. [Extracted from the article]

The US job market saw a decline in job openings in September, reaching the lowest level since early 2021, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Layoffs increased, while fewer workers voluntarily quit their jobs, indicating less confidence in finding new employment. Despite these trends, other indicators suggest a strong labor market and economy, leading to speculation about the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions. The data precedes the October employment report, which may be impacted by external factors like strikes and natural disasters. [Extracted from the article]

New Zealand's filled jobs remained stagnant for the second consecutive month in September, indicating a weakening labor market. Filled jobs increased by 0.04% to 2.364 million, following a previous small increase and a significant decline in the preceding months. Economists predict a rise in the jobless rate to 5% in the third quarter, with hiring expected to contract further in 2025 due to high interest rates and decreased business confidence. The Reserve Bank has already cut interest rates in response to the weak economy, with further reductions anticipated. [Extracted from the article]

The US bond market is facing a critical two-week period that will shape its trajectory for the rest of the year, with key events such as Treasury debt sales, monthly payroll figures, the presidential election, and the Federal Reserve meeting. The recent selloff in Treasury prices has been driven by economic strength and uncertainty surrounding future interest rate cuts. While upcoming events may support the bond market, such as stable debt auctions and easing price pressures, there is also potential for increased volatility and yield spikes. Traders are closely monitoring economic data releases, Fed decisions, and corporate earnings reports for further market impact. [Extracted from the article]

The US bond market is facing a critical two-week period that will shape its trajectory for the rest of the year, with key events such as Treasury debt sales, monthly payroll figures, the presidential election, and the Federal Reserve meeting. The recent selloff in Treasury prices has been driven by economic strength and uncertainty surrounding interest rate cuts, with investors closely monitoring upcoming data releases and events for market impact. While some factors may support the bond market, such as stable debt auctions and easing price pressures, the outcome of these events remains uncertain and could lead to increased volatility in the market. [Extracted from the article]

Starbucks employees have expressed concerns about understaffing, with only 33% of workers at US company-operated locations reporting sufficient staffing levels. New CEO Brian Niccol is addressing these issues to improve worker morale and customer service. While Starbucks has made some improvements, such as refining staffing models and adding equipment upgrades, challenges remain, including managers' limited bandwidth and workers feeling stretched thin. Niccol's past experience at Chipotle has some hopeful for positive changes, but concerns about worker experiences and union organizing persist. [Extracted from the article]

Australia's recent surge in hiring continued in September, with employment rising by 64,100, driven by full-time jobs. The unemployment rate remained steady at 4.1%, leading traders to reduce their bets on the Reserve Bank's first interest-rate cut. The Australian dollar strengthened, and the three-year government bond yield rose, indicating market confidence in the economy. The Reserve Bank is expected to maintain its high interest rates in November, with a potential rate cut not anticipated until next year. Governor Michele Bullock has indicated a cautious approach to policy easing, with the RBA closely monitoring employment data and inflation trends. [Extracted from the article]

Australia's hiring spree continued in September, with a significant increase of 64,100 jobs, mainly in full-time positions. The unemployment rate remained steady at 4.1%, showcasing the labor market's resilience despite high interest rates. The Australian dollar and government bond yields rose slightly in response to the news, with the Reserve Bank expected to maintain its 12-year high interest rate of 4.35% in November. Governor Michele Bullock's stance suggests that a rate cut may not be imminent, with Deputy Andrew Hauser set to discuss the employment data at an upcoming event in Sydney. [Extracted from the article]

US small-business optimism remained relatively unchanged in September, indicating high uncertainty leading up to the US presidential election. The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) optimism index increased slightly by 0.3 points to 91.5, but the uncertainty index reached a record high as small-business owners await the election outcome. Capital spending plans decreased, with the share of firms planning capital expenditures dropping to its lowest level since April 2023. Additionally, inflation remained a top concern for small-business owners, while hiring plans were still below pre-pandemic levels. [Extracted from the article]

Oil prices and safe-haven assets such as bonds, gold, and the US dollar rose after Iran launched a missile attack on Israel in retaliation for Israel's attacks on Lebanon. This flight to safety caused US stocks to decline, with the S&P 500 falling 0.9%. The tech sector was particularly affected, with Apple and Nvidia experiencing significant losses. The Middle East conflict overshadowed US economic data, including a decrease in the US ISM price index and an increase in job openings. Additionally, there were reports of layoffs at Samsung and weaker-than-expected quarterly revenue for Nike. [Extracted from the article]

Oil prices and safe-haven assets such as bonds, gold, and the US dollar rose after Iran launched a missile attack on Israel in retaliation for Israeli attacks on Lebanon. This flight to safety caused US stocks to decline, with the S&P 500 falling 0.9%. The tech sector was particularly affected, with Apple Inc. and Nvidia Corp. experiencing significant losses. The conflict in the Middle East overshadowed economic data, including a decrease in the US ISM price index and an increase in job openings. Investors are also closely watching the vice presidential debate and the upcoming US nonfarm payrolls report. [Extracted from the article]

Stocks experienced a setback as investors turned to safer assets due to escalating conflict in the Middle East. Bonds, oil, gold, and the US dollar all saw gains after Iran launched missiles at Israel following an advance of armed forces into Lebanon. The tech sector was particularly affected, with Apple Inc. and Nvidia Corp. seeing a decline in stock prices. The clash overshadowed economic data, including a decrease in the US ISM price index and an increase in job openings. A longshoremen's strike and the upcoming vice presidential debate also contributed to market uncertainty. [Extracted from the article]

Stocks experienced a setback as investors turned to safer assets due to escalating conflict in the Middle East. Bonds, oil, gold, and the US dollar all saw gains after Iran launched missiles at Israel following an advance of armed forces into Lebanon. The tech sector was particularly affected, with Apple Inc. and Nvidia Corp. seeing a decline in stock prices. The clash in the Middle East overshadowed mixed economic data, and a longshoremen's strike at major US container ports added to concerns. The VIX, Wall Street's fear gauge, spiked higher, indicating potential volatility ahead. [Extracted from the article]

Bonds and gold prices increased while stocks declined due to reports of an attack by Iran on Israel. The US's active support in defending Israel against the attack led to gains in safe-haven assets. Tech stocks, such as Apple Inc. and Nvidia Corp., performed poorly, and economic data sent mixed signals. The VIX, Wall Street's fear gauge, spiked higher, indicating potential volatility ahead. October historically has positive periods for equities, but it can also be volatile. Euro-area inflation slowed below the European Central Bank's target, and money markets are betting on a decrease by the ECB. [Extracted from the article]

US manufacturing activity contracted for the sixth consecutive month in September, with weak orders and declining employment being the main factors. The Institute for Supply Management's factory gauge remained at 47.2, indicating contraction. The rates of decline for orders and output improved slightly but remained in contraction territory. The report also highlighted that subdued demand, including from overseas customers, helped reduce price pressures on materials and inputs. The survey was conducted prior to a strike at East and Gulf coast ports, which could further impact shipping costs and import prices. [Extracted from the article]

US manufacturing activity contracted for a sixth consecutive month in September, with weak orders and declining employment contributing to the decline. The Institute for Supply Management's factory gauge remained at 47.2, indicating contraction. The rates of decline for orders and output improved slightly from the previous month but remained in contraction territory. The report also highlighted subdued demand, reduced price pressures on materials, and shrinking inventories. Thirteen industries reported contraction, while five sectors expanded. The survey was conducted prior to a strike at East and Gulf coast ports, which could further impact shipping costs and import prices. The employment index dropped for a fourth month, and limited capital spending and fragile export markets continue to pose challenges for the manufacturing sector. [Extracted from the article]

US job openings reached a three-month high in August, surpassing expectations. The increase was driven by a significant rise in construction openings and growth in the state and local government sectors. However, the hiring rate declined, particularly in retail trade and transportation and warehousing. The report presents a mixed picture of the labor market, with low layoffs rates but a decrease in the quits rate, indicating decreased confidence in finding new positions. [Extracted from the article]

Prime Minister Keir Starmer will soon have to decide who to appoint as the UK's cabinet secretary, the top civil servant in the country. The current cabinet secretary, Simon Case, announced that he will step down at the end of the year due to health reasons. The new appointee will be responsible for restoring order to a divided and potentially dysfunctional operation at 10 Downing Street, as well as helping the new Labour government achieve its priorities in a challenging economic climate. Several potential candidates have been mentioned, including Olly Robbins, Antonia Romeo, Melanie Dawes, Minouche Shafik, Tamara Finkelstein, Jeremy Pocklington, and Stephen Lovegrove. [Extracted from the article]

The US job market is facing uncertainty as hiring in the health care sector slows down. Health care has been a significant driver of employment growth since 2021, accounting for one in five new jobs. However, in August, companies added the fewest health care workers in over two years, particularly in hospitals and nursing care facilities. This slowdown in hiring could impact the broader labor market, as health care has become increasingly important for economic growth. The aging population and their medical needs should support ongoing expansion, but the recent hiring slowdown may keep overall hiring trends subdued in the near future. [Extracted from the article]

Oil prices and safe-haven assets such as bonds, gold, and the US dollar rose after Iran launched a missile attack on Israel in retaliation for Israeli attacks on Lebanon. This flight to safety caused US stocks to decline, with the S&P 500 falling 0.9%. The tech sector was particularly affected, with Apple and Nvidia experiencing significant losses. The conflict in the Middle East overshadowed US economic data, including a decrease in the US ISM price index and an increase in job openings. Investors are also closely watching the vice presidential debate and the upcoming US nonfarm payrolls report. [Extracted from the article]

Oil prices and other safe haven assets rose after Iran launched a missile attack on Israel in retaliation for Israeli attacks on Lebanon. US stocks declined as investors sought safety, with the S&P 500 falling 0.9%. The tech sector was particularly affected, with Apple and Nvidia seeing significant losses. The conflict in the Middle East overshadowed economic data, including a fall in the US ISM price index and a rise in job openings. Investors are also closely watching the vice presidential debate and the upcoming US nonfarm payrolls report. [Extracted from the article]

Stocks experienced a decline as investors sought safer investments due to increased conflict in the Middle East. Haven assets such as bonds, oil, gold, and the US dollar all saw gains after Iran launched missiles at Israel. The tech sector was particularly affected, with Apple Inc. and Nvidia Corp. experiencing significant losses. The clash in the Middle East overshadowed economic data, including a decrease in the US ISM price index and an increase in job openings. Additionally, a longshoremen's strike at major US container ports caused concern over potential economic losses. The Vice Presidential nominees also participated in a debate, aiming to win over swing voters. Nike Inc. reported lower-than-expected quarterly revenue, leading to a weakening of their shares in postmarket trading. The VIX, a measure of market volatility, spiked higher. Despite the recent decline, October historically tends to be a positive month for equities, although it can also be volatile. Some analysts believe that stocks are not adequately pricing in potential risks. In money markets, there is speculation about the possibility of another interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in November. Euro-area inflation slowed below the European Central Bank's target, leading to expectations of a decrease in interest rates. [Extracted from the article]

Stocks experienced a setback as investors turned to safer assets due to escalating conflict in the Middle East. Bonds, oil, gold, and the US dollar all saw gains after Iran launched missiles at Israel following an advance of armed forces into Lebanon. The tech sector was particularly affected, with Apple Inc. and Nvidia Corp. seeing significant declines. The clash in the Middle East overshadowed mixed economic data, and a longshoremen's strike added to concerns. The fear gauge on Wall Street, the VIX, spiked higher before pulling back. [Extracted from the article]

Investors turned to safe-haven assets such as bonds, oil, gold, and the US dollar as tensions escalated in the Middle East. Iran launched missiles at Israel in response to ground raids in Lebanon, and the US is actively supporting Israel in its defense. Tech stocks performed poorly, with Apple and Nvidia sinking more than 3%. Economic data sent mixed signals, with the US ISM price index falling and job openings rising. A longshoremen's strike at major US container ports is causing economic losses, estimated to be between $3.8 billion to $4.5 billion a day. The VIX, Wall Street's fear gauge, spiked higher, indicating more volatility ahead. October historically has positive periods for equities, but also experiences volatility. Euro-area inflation slowed below the European Central Bank's target, leading to expectations of a quarter-point decrease by the ECB. The S&P 500 fell 1.1%, the Nasdaq 100 fell 1.7%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.5%. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.4%, the euro fell 0.7%, and the British pound fell 0.9%. Bitcoin fell 3.3% and Ether fell 4.7%. The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined to 3.73%. West Texas Intermediate crude rose to $70.73 a barrel, and spot gold rose to $2,663.40 an ounce. [Extracted from the article]

US manufacturing activity contracted for the sixth consecutive month in September, with weak orders and declining employment being the main factors. The Institute for Supply Management's factory gauge remained at 47.2, indicating contraction. The rates of decline for orders and output improved slightly but remained in contraction territory. The report also highlighted that subdued demand, including from overseas customers, helped reduce price pressures on materials and inputs. The survey was conducted prior to a strike at East and Gulf coast ports, which could push up shipping costs and import prices. [Extracted from the article]

US job openings reached a three-month high in August, surpassing expectations. The construction and state and local government sectors saw the largest increase in available positions. However, despite the rise in job openings, recent data indicates a slowdown in hiring. The Federal Reserve has cut interest rates to counter this slowdown and may make further cuts if necessary. The upcoming September employment report is expected to show a slight increase in hiring and a steady unemployment rate. The stock market and Treasury yields reacted negatively to this news. The ratio of vacancies to unemployed workers remains low, and the quits rate has decreased, suggesting decreased confidence in finding new positions. [Extracted from the article]

US government bonds are set to end September with a fifth consecutive monthly gain, despite a slight decrease in expectations for Federal Reserve easing over the next year. Short-maturity yields increased ahead of a speech by Fed Chair Jerome Powell, indicating some uncertainty about another interest-rate cut. However, Treasury debt has returned 1.4% so far this year, marking the market's longest streak of monthly gains since 2010. The rally has been attributed to improved inflation and slowing job growth, and swap contracts predict further easing by the end of January. [Extracted from the article]

Bond traders have adjusted their expectations for interest-rate cuts after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell stated that the US economy is stable. This has led to a decrease in the Treasury market's historic monthly gain. Powell's comments caused Treasury yields to rise, with the two-year note's yield reaching its highest level since September 12. Traders are divided on whether there will be a half-point or quarter-point rate cut in November, and economic reports for September will provide further insight. Treasury debt has seen a 1.4% return this month, the longest streak of monthly gains since 2010. [Extracted from the article]

The World Bank has approved $1.57 billion in new lending to Nigeria for three projects. The funding will be used to strengthen healthcare for women and children, improve dam safety to address climate change, and support power and irrigation projects. The World Bank believes that investing in the health and education of Nigerians is crucial for their future employment opportunities and productivity. This financing aims to address the challenges faced by Nigerians, particularly women and girls. [Extracted from the article]

The article discusses the upcoming events and data releases that will impact the Federal Reserve's decision on whether to implement another interest-rate cut in November. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will address economists at a conference to discuss the US economic outlook, and the September jobs report is expected to show a healthy labor market. Other factors that will be considered include labor unrest, job openings data, industry surveys, and global inflation. The article also provides information on events and data releases in Asia, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America. [Extracted from the article]

Federal Reserve policymakers' interest in another interest-rate cut in November will become clearer as Jerome Powell addresses economists and new employment numbers are released. The September jobs report is expected to show a healthy labor market, with payrolls rising by 146,000 and the jobless rate holding at 4.2%. However, recent labor unrest and potential strikes may impact the accuracy of the report. Other highlights include data on job openings, industry surveys, and home sales in Canada, as well as global inflation and business surveys in China. Euro-zone data, including inflation reports, will be closely watched as traders and economists predict a rate cut at the October European Central Bank meeting. Monetary decisions are also scheduled in other regions, including Mozambique, Iceland, Poland, Tanzania, and Romania. In Latin America, Colombian policymakers are expected to deliver another rate cut, while Chile's data is anticipated to show economic momentum. Peru's inflation is expected to be slightly above the central bank's target range, and Brazil's economic indicators are expected to show strong growth. [Extracted from the article]

US government bonds are on track for their longest monthly winning streak in 14 years, with investors expecting further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. The Bloomberg US Treasury Total Return Index shows that September is set to be the fifth consecutive month of gains for Treasuries, the longest run since 2010. The rally in bond markets is a result of the Fed's interest rate cutting cycle, with traders anticipating more easing measures to prevent a breakdown of the labor market and keep inflation in check. However, uncertainties about the scale of future rate cuts and the already seen rally in Treasuries may test the market's bullish positioning. [Extracted from the article]

Federal Reserve policymakers' interest in another interest-rate cut in November will become clearer as Jerome Powell addresses economists and new employment numbers are released. The September jobs report is expected to show a healthy labor market, with payrolls rising by 146,000 and the jobless rate holding at 4.2%. However, recent labor unrest and potential strikes may impact the accuracy of the report. Other highlights include data on job openings, industry surveys, and home sales in Canada, as well as global inflation and business surveys in China. Euro-zone data, including inflation reports, will be closely watched as traders and economists predict a rate cut at the October European Central Bank meeting. Monetary decisions are also scheduled in other regions, including Mozambique, Iceland, Poland, Tanzania, and Romania. In Latin America, Colombian policymakers are expected to deliver another rate cut, while Chile's data is anticipated to show economic momentum. Peru's inflation is expected to be slightly above the central bank's target range, and Brazil's economic indicators are expected to show strong growth. [Extracted from the article]

US government bonds are on track for their longest monthly winning streak in 14 years, with investors expecting further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. The Bloomberg US Treasury Total Return Index shows that September is set to be the fifth consecutive month of gains for Treasuries, the longest run since 2010. The rally in bond markets is a result of the Fed's interest rate cutting cycle, with traders anticipating more easing measures to prevent a breakdown of the labor market and keep inflation in check. However, uncertainties about the scale of future rate cuts and the already seen rally in Treasuries may test the bullish positioning in the market. [Extracted from the article]

US government bonds are on track for their longest monthly winning streak in 14 years, with investors expecting further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. The Bloomberg US Treasury Total Return Index shows that Treasury bonds have returned 1.2% in September, marking the fifth consecutive month of gains. This rally is a result of the Fed's interest rate cutting cycle, which aims to prevent a breakdown of the labor market while keeping inflation in check. Traders are pricing in more rate cuts, with expectations of a 50% chance of another half-point reduction at the next policy meeting. [Extracted from the article]

Australia's labor market remains strong, with employment increasing by 47,500 in August, surpassing expectations. The jobless rate held steady at 4.2%, while the participation rate remained at a record high. The Australian dollar recovered and government bond yields rose as traders reduced their expectations of a rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia. The report suggests that the central bank is unlikely to change its current policy settings, despite market expectations of a rate cut. [Extracted from the article]

Australia's labor market remains strong, with employment increasing by 47,500 in August, surpassing expectations. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.2%, while the participation rate remained at a record high. The high employment-to-population ratio and participation rate indicate that there are still many job opportunities available. The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to maintain its high interest rates, despite market expectations of a rate cut. Governor Michele Bullock has expressed a reluctance to reduce rates in the near future. [Extracted from the article]

Australia's labor market remains strong, with employment increasing by 47,500 in August, surpassing expectations. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.2%, while the participation rate remained at a record high. The Australian Bureau of Statistics attributes the robust labor market to a high employment-to-population ratio and employers actively filling job vacancies. Despite speculation of a rate cut, Reserve Bank Governor Michele Bullock has indicated that rate cuts are unlikely in the near future. [Extracted from the article]

Traders are reconsidering the possibility of a large interest-rate cut by the Federal Reserve, causing a rally in US government bonds and introducing uncertainty ahead of next week's decision. The chance of a 50-basis-point cut has risen to around 30% after being discounted in recent days. The debate over the size of the rate cut has captured market attention, with some speculating on more aggressive action. However, others believe a half-point cut would be an overreaction and that the economy does not urgently require looser monetary policy. [Extracted from the article]

Traders are reconsidering the possibility of a large interest-rate cut by the Federal Reserve, causing a rally in US government bonds and introducing uncertainty ahead of next week's decision. The chance of a 50-basis-point cut has risen to around 30% after being discounted in recent days. The debate over the size of the rate cut has captured market attention, with some speculating on more aggressive action. However, others believe a half-point cut would be an overreaction and that the economy does not urgently require looser monetary policy. [Extracted from the article]

Traders are once again considering the possibility of a large interest-rate cut by the Federal Reserve, causing a rally in US government bonds and creating uncertainty ahead of next week's decision. The market now sees a 30% chance of a half-point cut, following a Wall Street Journal report that Fed policymakers were considering a quarter or half-point cut. While recent data supports a more measured move, speculation of aggressive action remains. Yields on two-year and 10-year notes dropped, and the case for easing has been building due to lower inflation and disappointing US data. [Extracted from the article]