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The management of variables with uncertainties in stochastic cash flow models related to capital investments in energy crops projects allows, in addition to risk measurement, the adoption of proactive measures that can assure the generation of value to the project. This study analyzes the economic feasibility of sugarcane cultivation for bioethanol production from sugar cane molasses, under technical and economic uncertainty. The analysis characterizes sugarcane productivity, capital investment, production costs, and costs of cutting, loading, and transport, considered as stochastic variables. For this, the uncertainty was propagated through Latin hypercube sampling. Sensitivity analysis was also performed to assess the impact of these variables. The results indicated that the productivity of the crop and the sugarcane price in the conveyor belt are determinant to guarantee the economic value of the investment project. There is a high probability of achieving positive NPV (net present value), in addition, MIRR (modified internal rate of return) is 5% higher than MARR (minimum acceptable rate of return). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In a previous paper, conceptual process design, simulation, and mass and energy balances were presented for an organosolv process with a hardwood feed of 2350 metric tons (MT) per day and ethanol, lignin, furfural, and acetic acid production rates of 459, 310, 6.6, and 30.3 MT/day, respectively. In this paper, the investment and operating costs of the process and the minimum ethanol selling price (MESP) to make the process economically feasible were estimated. The total capital investment of the plant was approximately 720 million USD. Lignin price was found to affect the MESP considerably. With a base case lignin price of 450 USD/MT, the MESP was approximately 3.1 USD per gallon (gal). Higher lignin price of 1000 USD/MT was required to equal the MESP with the December 2013 ethanol market price (2.0 USD/gal). In addition to lignin price, the MESP was found to be strongly affected by feedstock, enzyme, and investment costs. Variations in feedstock and investment costs affected the MESP by approximately 0.2 and 0.5 USD/gal, respectively. Changing the enzyme dosage and price from base case estimate of 5270 USD/MT and 0.02 g/g cellulose to more conservative 3700 USD/MT and 0.06 g/g cellulose, respectively, increased the MESP by 0.59 USD/gal. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]