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In order to reach sustainable development, the EU plans to expand the production of renewable resources and their conversion into food, feed, biobased products and bioenergy. Therefore also advanced biobased products like e.g. polymers are discussed to substitute their fossil based counterparts which are highly relevant commodities in terms of volumes. The present paper aims to assess the magnitudes of possible substitution shares as well as their implications on biomass demand in the EU28. Therefore scenarios are calculated based on a top-down estimation of current fossil based- and a literature analysis on biobased capacities, respective expectations and targets. Demands for biogenic building blocks are derived using conversion efficiencies and finally energy contents of underlying biogenic carbon carriers are calculated which could be deployed either for energy or material utilisation. We find lowest substitution potentials for biobased surfactants and highest for biodegradable polymers as well as potentials in a same order of magnitude for more durable polymers and biobased bitumen. Compared to average literature estimates for moderate and ambitious bioenergy scenarios, material utilisation could reach up to 4% and 11% shares in 2050 in a joint biobased subsector respectively. However, our scenarios are based on relatively poor data availability. Clearer definitions of products and feedstocks are needed, official monitoring has to be implemented, EU wide substitution targets must be set and pre-treatment and conversion technologies have to be introduced and diffused if we want to discuss and trigger climate change mitigation effects of this bioeconomy subsector in the upcoming decades.

In this study, long-term perspectives for the Austrian bioenergy sector are analyzed. The focus is on the achievable contribution of biomass to the heat, electricity and transport fuel supply as well as to the total primary energy supply under different framework conditions. Also, the achievable GHG mitigation and the costs related to GHG reduction are assessed. The analyses are based on scenarios which are compiled with the simulation model Green-XBio-Austria. Within this model a myopic optimization of the bioenergy sector with regard to energy generation costs up to 2050 in eleven scenarios is carried out. The scenarios differ in the following aspects: the projections for fuel price development and for the energy demand as well as bioenergy policy measures assumed. The major conclusions are: With respect to greenhouse gas emission reduction and economic efficiency, the simulations make clear that bioenergy policies should focus on the promotion of heat an – to some extent – combined heat and power generation. A focus on liquid biofuels for transport has adverse effects on the development of the bioenergy sector due to increased competition for limited biomass resources. For significantly increasing the share of biomass in the Austrian energy supply, it is crucial to both subsidize bioenergy and reduce the overall energy consumption. In the case of highly increasing fossil fuel prices, the economics of bioenergy systems will improve significantly.