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This paper makes projections of the theoretical and technical potentials of bioenergy supply for 2050. The projections consider changes in available land for bioenergy and food for the global demand and advancements in yield, productivity, expansion of bio-waste recovery, and energy conversion. We present a literature review on projections. We introduced a novel logical and transparent forecasting model. Three future scenarios were established: business as usual (BUS), optimistic trends (OPT), and full adaptation response (FAR). The projection is carried out based on four adjusting factors. An uncertainty analysis was carry-out based on a Monte-Carlo method. Projections of bioenergy production in 2050 were compared with other projections in the literature. The FAR scenario showed that it would be possible to produce twenty-one times the current primary bioenergy supply and to even supply all global primary energy demand in 2050, mostly by energy crops. The assumptions adopted for the BUS and OPT scenarios make their projections more likely. Therefore, the contribution of bioenergy in the global energy matrix is expected to be between 64 and 313 EJ (7.5%–37%) in 2050. There would be a significant change in the composition of the bioenergy supply from today's mostly firewood to energy crops and biowastes. The technical potential for fuel and electric power mostly follow the supply trends for primary bioenergy (theoretical). The potential avoided greenhouse emissions are estimated. The heuristics and the level of transparency of the novel model will allow adjustments and exploration of other scenarios as time passes. • Novel model for projections of the potential of global primary bioenergy supply. • Bioenergy supply potential is shown for 11 different groups of biomass. • Global primary bioenergy supply could increase up to 6 times by 2050 (37% of demand). • Full adaptation response scenario could meet 100% of the global energy demand. • Bioenergy can play a major role in the global energy supply. [Display omitted] [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The objective of this study was to explore the magnitude of Zimbabwe's biomass resources available for energy production using thermochemical conversion route. This involved estimation biomass from crops, forestry, livestock and Municipal Solid Residues (MSR). A model for estimating biomass energy potential was developed in Microsoft Excel. The crop and forestry production and livestock data used as a basis of calculations was obtained from FAOSTAT. The biomass residues available for energy production were calculated from residues produced considering economic and environmental concerns associated with the removal of crop residues from land and current residue uses. The energy content was obtained by multiplying the available biomass by specific biomass energy content. The total biomass energy was estimated at an annual average of 413.2 PJ but only 279.5 PJ (23.8% crops, 17.8% crop residues, 45.2% forestry resources, 12.2% livestock residue and 1.0% MSR) is sustainably available. Of this energy 189.3 PJ (26.3% from crop residue, 47.9% from woodfuel, 6.4% from forestry residue, 18.0% from livestock residue and 1.5% from MSR) can be used for energy production without competing for resources with food/feed production and other biomass applications. This can meet approximately 48% of the current energy consumption. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]