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Higher temperatures projected under current climate change models are generally predicted to exert an overall positive effect on the success of invasive insects through increased survivability, developmental rates and fecundity, and by facilitating geographic range expansion. However, these effects have primarily focused on the shifts in winter temperatures with limited attention to the role that summer heat may play in shaping species ranges or fitness. We examined the thermal ecology of an ecologically important invasive forest insect, the hemlock woolly adelgid (Adelges tsugae), by determining survival during its summer dormancy phase under increasing temperature regimens. From laboratory and field experiments, we documented a positive association between increased temperatures and duration of exposure, and A. tsugae mortality. Adelges tsugae mortality was minimal ( 30 °C). At the warmest, southernmost edge of their range, field mortality of A. tsugae ranged from 8.5 to 81.9% and was strongly correlated with site temperature regimens. Further, we found no significant differences in A. tsugae survival between populations collected from Maine and Georgia, and over a 3-year period within Georgia, indicating that A. tsugae may not be acclimating to heat. These results highlight the importance of including summer temperatures in studies regarding increased temperatures on insect dynamics, and may alter historical predictions of climate change impacts on invasive insects and the conservation of forest ecosystems.

Long-distance introductions of new invasive species have often been driven by socioeconomic factors, such that traditional “biological” invasion models may not be capable of estimating spread fully and reliably. In this study we present a new methodology to characterize and predict pathways of human-assisted entries of alien forest insects. We have developed a stochastic quantitative model of how these species may be moved with commodity flow through a network of international marine ports and major transportation corridors in Canada. The study makes use of a Canadian roadside survey database and data on Canadian marine imports, complemented with geo-referenced information on ports of entry, populated places and empirical observations of historical spread rates for invasive pests. The model is formulated as a probabilistic pathway matrix, and allows for quantitative characterization of likelihoods and vectors of new pest introductions from already or likely-to-be infested locations. We applied the pathway model to estimate the rates of human-assisted entry of alien forest insect species across Canada as well as cross-border transport to locations in the US. Results suggest a relatively low nationwide entry rate for Canada when compared to the US (0.338 new forest insect species per year vs. 1.89). Among Canadian urban areas, Greater Toronto and Greater Vancouver appear to have the highest alien forest insect entry potential, exhibiting species entry rates that are comparable with estimated rates at mid-size US urban metropolises.

International trade is widely acknowledged as a conduit for movement of invasive species, but few studies have directly quantified the invasion risk confronting individual locations of interest. This study presents estimates of the likelihood of successful entry for alien forest insect species at more than 3,000 urban areas in the contiguous United States (US). To develop these location-specific estimates, we first utilized historical merchandise imports and insect incursions data to estimate an annual US rate of alien insect species establishment. Next, we used historical pest interception data to calculate the proportion of all insects arriving at US ports of entry that are associated with forest hosts. We then combined these results to estimate a nationwide establishment rate specifically for alien forest insects. Finally, we employed international and domestic commodity flow networks to allocate this nationwide rate to individual US urban areas. For 2010, we estimated the nationwide rate as 1.89 new alien forest insect species per year. While the establishment rates observed at most urban areas were low (