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Wetlands, one of the most biodiverse ecosystems in the world, are increasingly subjected to area loss and degradation due to land-use and climate changes. These factors impact their unique biodiversity, including numerous invertebrates that depend on them. Here we investigated the current and future habitat suitability of the aquatic spiders Argyroneta aquatica and Dolomedes plantarius. We evaluated future trends in their geographic range, aiming at assessing their extinction risk according to the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List criteria, at both global and regional levels. We investigated present and future distribution ranges using species distribution models for two integrated emission scenarios (SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5) and combining three general circulation models. These were combined with knowledge on species' dispersal limitation to account for the possibility that these species will not be able to move beyond the current range in the next decades. We found a significant future northern shift in the geographic range and a global reduction in habitat suitability for both species, corresponding to a loss of 28.9 % for A. aquatica and 38.1 % for D. plantarius in the next 10 years. The application of the IUCN criteria qualifies A. aquatica as Near Threatened and D. plantarius as Vulnerable. Regional assessments provided similar patterns of range reductions and population vulnerability across all European regions, particularly for Central-Eastern and Western Europe. Conversely, Northern Europe is expected to become a climatic refugium for both species. This work goes beyond the available studies on the conservation of these species by taking account their dispersal abilities in quantifying future trends in their habitat suitability using the most up to date knowledge. Conservation strategies should be directed towards limiting the impact of climatic and non-climatic stressors on wetlands, and towards implementing management plans and restoration programmes to increase habitat suitability and connectivity among wetland patches. [Display omitted] • Argyroneta aquatica and Dolomedes plantarius are charismatic species of wetlands subjected to habitat loss and degradation. • A future northern shift in geographic range and a global reduction in habitat suitability is forecasted for both species. • The predicted loss is 28.9 % for A. aquatica and 38.1 % for D. plantarius in the next 10 years. • The application of the IUCN criteria qualifies A. aquatica as Near Threatened and D. plantarius as Vulnerable. • Regional assessments provided similar patterns of range reductions and population vulnerability across all European regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Species differ in their biological susceptibility to extinction, but the set of traits determining susceptibility varies across taxa. It is yet unclear which patterns are common to all taxa, and which are taxon-specific, with consequences to conservation practice. In this study we analysed the generality of trait-based prediction of extinction risk across terrestrial (including freshwater) vertebrates, invertebrates and plants at a global scale. For each group, we selected five representative taxa and within each group we explored whether risk can be related to any of 10 potential predictors. We then synthesized outcomes across taxa using a meta-analytic approach. High habitat specificity was a consistent predictor across vertebrates, invertebrates and plants, being a universal predictor of risk. Slow life-history traits – large relative offspring size, low fecundity, long generation length –, and narrow altitudinal range were also found to be good predictors across most taxa, but their universality needs to be supported with additional data. Poor dispersal ability was a common predictor of extinction risk among invertebrate and plant taxa, but not consistently among vertebrates. The remaining traits (body size, microhabitat verticality, trophic level, and diet breadth) were useful to predict extinction risk but only at lower taxonomical levels. Our study shows that despite the idiosyncrasies among taxa, universal susceptibility to extinction exists and several traits might influence extinction risk for most taxa. Informing conservation prioritization at lower taxonomic scales should however include taxon-specific trait-based predictors of extinction risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]