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Accurate projections of marine particle export production (EP) are crucial for predicting the response of the marine carbon cycle to climate change, yet models show a wide range in both global EP and their responses to climate change. This is, in part, due to EP being the net result of a series of processes, starting with net primary production (NPP) in the sunlit upper ocean, followed by the formation of particulate organic matter and the subsequent sinking and remineralization of these particles, with each of these processes responding differently to changes in environmental conditions. Here, we compare future projections in EP over the 21st century, generated by four marine ecosystem models under IPCC's high emission scenario RCP8.5, and determine the processes driving these changes. The models simulate small to modest decreases in global EP between -1 and -12%. Models differ greatly with regard to the drivers causing these changes. Among them, the formation of particles is the most uncertain process with models not agreeing on either magnitude or the direction of change. The removal of the sinking particles by remineralization is simulated to increase in the low and intermediate latitudes in three models, driven by either warming-induced increases in remineralization or slower particle sinking, and show insignificant changes in the remaining model. Changes in ecosystem structure, particularly the relative role of diatoms matters as well, as diatoms produce larger and denser particles that sink faster and are partly protected from remineralization. Also this controlling factor is afflicted with high uncertainties, particularly since the models differ already substantially with regard to both the initial (present-day) distribution of diatoms (between 11-94% in the Southern Ocean) and the diatom contribution to particle formation (0.6-3.8 times lower/higher than their contribution to biomass). As a consequence, changes in diatom concentration are a strong driver for EP changes in some models but of low significance in others. Observational and experimental constraints on ecosystem structure and how the fixed carbon is routed through the ecosystem to produce export production are urgently needed in order to improve current generation ecosystem models and their ability to project future changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We use an eddy-resolving, regional ocean biogeochemical model to investigate the main variables and processes responsible for the climatological spatio-temporal variability of pCO2 and the air-sea CO2 fluxes in the southwestern Atlantic Ocean. Overall, the region acts as sink of atmospheric CO2 south of 30° S, and is close to equilibrium with the atmospheric CO2 to the north. On the shelves, the ocean acts as a weak source of CO2, except for the mid/outer shelves of Patagonia, which act as sinks. In contrast, the inner shelves and the low latitude open ocean of the southwestern Atlantic represent source regions. Observed nearshore-to-offshore and meridional pCO2 gradients are well represented by our simulation. A sensitivity analysis shows the importance of the counteracting effects of temperature and dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) in controlling the seasonal variability of pCO2. Biological production and solubility are the main processes regulating pCO2, with biological production being particularly important on the shelf regions. The role of mixing/stratification in modulating DIC, and therefore surface pCO2 is shown in a vertical profile at the location of the Ocean Observatories Initiative (OOI) site in the Argentine Basin (42° S, 42° W). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We use an eddy-resolving, regional ocean biogeochemical model to investigate the main variables and processes responsible for the climatological spatio-temporal variability of pCO2 and the air--sea CO2 fluxes in the southwestern Atlantic Ocean. Overall, the region acts as sink of atmospheric CO2 south of 30° S, and is close to equilibrium with the atmospheric CO2 to the north. On the shelves, the ocean acts as a weak source of CO2, except for the mid/outer shelves of Patagonia, which act as sinks. In contrast, the inner shelves and the low latitude open ocean of the southwestern Atlantic represent source regions. Observed nearshore-to-offshore and meridional pCO2 gradients are well represented by our simulation. A sensitivity analysis shows the importance of the counteracting effects of temperature and dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) in controlling the seasonal variability of pCO2. Biological production and solubility are the main processes regulating pCO2, with biological production being particularly important on the shelf regions. The role of mixing/stratification in modulating DIC, and therefore surface pCO2 is shown in a vertical profile at the location of the Ocean Observatories Initiative (OOI) site in the Argentine Basin (42° S, 42° W). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Past model studies have projected a global decrease in marine net primary production (NPP) over the 21st century, but these studies focused on the multi-model mean and mostly ignored the large inter-model differences. Here, we analyze model simulated changes of NPP for the 21st century under IPCC's high emission scenario RCP8.5 using a suite of nine coupled carbon--climate Earth System Models with embedded marine ecosystem models with a focus on the spread between the different models and the underlying reasons. Globally, five out of the nine models show a decrease in NPP over the course of the 21st century, while three show no significant trend and one even simulates an increase. The largest model spread occurs in the low latitudes (between 30° S and 30° N), with individual models simulating relative changes between -25 and +40 %. In this region, the inter-quartile range of the differences between the 2012-2031 average and the 2081-2100 average is up to 3 molCm-2 yr-1. These large differences in future change mirror large differences in present day NPP. Of the seven models diagnosing a net decrease in NPP in the low latitudes, only three simulate this to be a consequence of the classical interpretation, i.e., a stronger nutrient limitation due to increased stratification and reduced upwelling. In the other four, warminginduced increases in phytoplankton growth outbalance the stronger nutrient limitation. However, temperature-driven increases in grazing and other loss processes cause a net decrease in phytoplankton biomass and reduces NPP despite higher growth rates. One model projects a strong increase in NPP in the low latitudes, caused by an intensification of the microbial loop, while the remaining model simulates changes of less than 0.5%. While there is more consistency in the modeled increase in NPP in the Southern Ocean, the regional inter-model range is also very substantial. In most models, this increase in NPP is driven by temperature, but is also modulated by changes in light, macronutrients and iron as well as grazing. Overall, current projections of future changes in global marine NPP are subject to large uncertainties and necessitate a dedicated and sustained effort to improve the models and the concepts and data that guide their development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We compare the spatial and temporal representation of phytoplankton functional types (pPFTs) in four different Dynamic Green Ocean Models (DGOMs; CCSM-BEC, NEMURO, PISCES and PlankTOM5) to derived phytoplankton distributions from two independent satellite estimates, with a particular focus on diatom distributions. Global annual mean surface biomass estimates for diatoms vary between 0.23 mmolCm-3 and 0.77 mmolCm-3 in the models, and are comparable to a satellite-derived estimate (0.41 mmolCm-3). All models consistently simulate a higher zonal mean diatom biomass contribution in the high latitudes than in the low latitudes, but the relative diatom contribution varies substantially between models with largest differences in the high latitudes (20% to 100% of total biomass). We investigate phytoplankton distribution in terms of annual and monthly mean dominance patterns, i.e. the distribution of locations where a given PFT contributes more than 50% to total biomass. In all models, diatoms tend to dominate large areas of the high latitudes of both hemispheres, and the area of the surface ocean dominated by diatoms is significantly higher in the models than in the satellite estimates. We estimate the realized ecological niches filled by the dominant pPFT at each location as a function of annual mean surface nitrate concentration (NO3), sea surface temperature (SST), and mixed layer depth. A general additive model (GAM) is used to map the probability of dominance of all pPFTs in niche and geographic space. Models tend to simulate diatom dominance over a wider temperature and nutrient range, whereas satellites confine diatom dominance to a narrower niche of low-intermediate annual mean temperatures (annual mean SST< 10 °C), but allow for niches in different ranges of surface NO3 concentrations. For annual mean diatom dominance, the statistically modelled probability of dominance explains the majority of the variance in the data (65.2-66.6 %). For the satellite estimates, the explained deviance is much lower (44.6% and 32.7 %). The differences in the representation of diatoms among models and compared to satellite estimates highlights the need to better resolve phytoplankton succession and phenology in the models. This work is part of the marine ecosystem inter-comparison project (MAREMIP). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Air-sea CO2 fluxes over the Pacific Ocean are known to be characterized by coherent large-scale structures that reflect not only ocean subduction and upwelling patterns, but also the combined effects of wind-driven gas exchange and biology. On the largest scales, a large net CO2 influx into the extra-tropics is associated with a robust seasonal cycle, and a large net CO2 efflux from the tropics is associated with substantial inter-annual variability. In this work, we have synthesized estimates of the net air-sea CO2 flux from a variety of products drawing upon a variety of approaches in three sub-basins of the Pacific Ocean, i.e., the North Pacific extra-tropics (18° N-66° N), the tropical Pacific (18° S-18° N), and the South Pacific extra-tropics (44.5° S-18° S). These approaches include those based on the measurements of CO2 partial pressure in surface seawater (pCO2sw), inversions of ocean interior CO2 data, forward ocean biogeochemistry models embedded in the ocean general circulation models (OBGCMs), a model with assimilation of pCO2sw data, and inversions of atmospheric CO2 measurements. Long-term means, inter-annual variations and mean seasonal variations of the regionally-integrated fluxes were compared in each of the sub-basins over the last two decades, spanning the period from 1990 through 2009. A simple average of the long-term mean fluxes obtained with surface water pCO2 diagnostics and those obtained with ocean interior CO2 inversions are -0.47 ± 0.13PgCyr-1 in the North Pacific extra-tropics, +0.44 ± 0 .14PgCyr-1 in the tropical Pacific, and -0.37 ± 0.08PgCyr-1 in the South Pacific extra-tropics, where positive fluxes are into the atmosphere. This suggests that approximately half of the CO2 taken up over the North and South Pacific extra-tropics is released back to the atmosphere from the tropical Pacific. These estimates of the regional fluxes are also supported by the estimates from OBGCMs after adding the riverine CO2 flux, i.e., -0.49 ± 0.02PgCyr-1 in the North Pacific extratropics, +0.41 ± 0.05PgCyr-1 in the tropical Pacific, and -0.39 ± 0.11 PgCyr-1 in the South Pacific extra-tropics. The estimates from the atmospheric CO2 inversions show large variations amongst different inversion systems, but their median fluxes are consistent with the estimates from climatological pCO2sw data and pCO2sw diagnostics. In the South Pacific extra-tropics, where CO2 variations in the surface and ocean interior are severely under-sampled, the difference in the air-sea CO2 flux estimates between the diagnostic models and ocean interior CO2 inversions is larger (0.18 PgCyr-1). The range of estimates from forward OBGCMs is also large (-0.19 to -0.72 PgCyr-1). Regarding inter-annual variability of air-sea CO2 fluxes, positive and negative anomalies are evident in the tropical Pacific during the cold and warm events of the El Nino Southern Oscillation in the estimates from pCO2sw diagnostic models and from OBGCMs. They are consistent in phase with the Southern Oscillation Index, but the peak-to-peak amplitudes tend to be higher in OBGCMs (0.40 ± 0.09 PgCyr-1) than in the diagnostic models (0.27 ± 0.07PgCyr-1). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Indian Ocean (44° S-30° N) plays an important role in the global carbon cycle, yet remains one of the most poorly sampled ocean regions. Several approaches have been used to estimate net sea-air CO2 fluxes in this region: interpolated observations, ocean biogeochemical models, atmospheric and ocean inversions. As part of the RECCAP (REgional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes) project, we combine these different approaches to quantify and assess the magnitude and variability in Indian Ocean sea-air CO2 fluxes between 1990 and 2009. Using all of the models and inversions, the median annual mean sea-air CO2 uptake of -0.37 ± 0.06 PgCyr-1, is consistent with the -0.24 ± 0.12 PgCyr-1 calculated from observations. The fluxes from the Southern Indian Ocean (18°S-44°S; -0.43±0.07PgCyr-1) are similar in magnitude to the annual uptake for the entire Indian Ocean. All models capture the observed pattern of fluxes in the Indian Ocean with the following exceptions: underestimation of upwelling fluxes in the northwestern region (off Oman and Somalia), over estimation in the northeastern region (Bay of Bengal) and underestimation of the CO2 sink in the subtropical convergence zone. These differences were mainly driven by a lack of atmospheric CO2 data in atmospheric inversions, and poor simulation of monsoonal currents and freshwater discharge in ocean biogeochemical models. Overall, the models and inversions do capture the phase of the observed seasonality for the entire Indian Ocean but over estimate the magnitude. The predicted sea-air CO2 fluxes by Ocean BioGeochemical Models (OBGM) respond to seasonal variability with strong phase lags with reference to climatological CO2 flux, whereas the atmospheric inversions predict an order of magnitude higher seasonal flux than OBGMs. The simulated interannual variability by the OBGMs is weaker than atmospheric inversions. Prediction of such weak interannual variability in CO2 fluxes by atmospheric inversions was mainly caused by lack of atmospheric data in the Indian Ocean. The OBGM models suggest a small strengthening of the sink over the period 1990-2009 of -0.01 PgCdecade-1. This is inconsistent with the observations in the southwest Indian Ocean that shows the growth rate of oceanic pCO2 was faster than the observed atmospheric CO2 growth, a finding attributed to the trend of the Southern Annual Mode (SAM) during the 1990s. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There are a number of hypotheses for the environmental controls on marine nitrogen fixation (NF). Most of these hypotheses have not been assessed against direct measurements on the global scale. In this study, we use ~500 depth-integrated field measurements of NF covering the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans to test whether the spatial variance of these measurements can be explained by the commonly hypothesized environmental controls, including measurement-based surface solar radiation, mixed layer depth, sea surface temperature, surface nitrate and phosphate concentrations, surface excess phosphate (P*), atmospheric dust deposition and surface wind speed, as well as minimum dissolved oxygen in upper 500m to identify possible subsurface denitrification zones. By conducting simple linear regression and stepwise multiple linear regression (MLR) analyses, solar radiation and/or sea surface temperature as well as subsurface dissolved oxygen are identified as the predictors explaining the most spatial variance in the observed NF data, while dust deposition and wind speed do not appear to influence the spatial patterns of NF on global scale. Our study suggests that marine NF is coupled to regional loss of fixed nitrogen induced by subsurface low oxygen concentration, with its magnitude constrained by solar radiation or temperature. By applying the MLR-derived equation, we estimate the global-integrated NF at 71 (error range 49–104) TgNyr-1 in the open ocean, acknowledging that it could be substantially higher as the 15N2-assimilation method used by most of the field samples underestimates NF. Our conclusion suggests that marine NF will increase in the future if subsurface nitrogen-losses increase as a consequence of developing deoxygenation with the global warming, a projection that will be modulated by other factors such as warming, elevated carbon dioxide, and changes in macro- and micro-nutrient distributions. More field NF samples in the Pacific and Indian Oceans, particularly in the oxygen minimum zones, are needed to reduce uncertainties in our conclusion. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We investigated the mechanisms of phytoplankton competition during the spring bloom, one of the most dramatic seasonal events in lower-trophic level ecosystems, in four state-of-the-art Plankton Functional Type (PFTs) models: PISCES, NEMURO, Plank- TOM5 and CCSM-BEC. In particular, we investigated the relative importance of different ecophysiological processes on the determination of the community structure, focusing both on the bottom-up and the top-down controls. The models reasonably reproduced the observed global distribution and seasonal variation of phytoplankton biomass. The fraction of diatoms with respect to the total phytoplankton biomass increases with the magnitude of the spring bloom in all models. However, the governing mechanisms differ between models, despite the fact that current PFT models represent ecophysiological processes using the same types of parameterizations. The increasing trend in the percentage of diatoms with increasing bloom magnitude is mainly caused by a stronger nutrient dependence of photosynthesis for diatoms compared to nanophytoplankton (bottom-up control). The difference in the maximum photosynthesis rate plays an important role in NEMURO and PlankTOM5 and determines the absolute values of the percentage of diatoms during the bloom. In CCSM-BEC, the light dependency of photosynthesis plays an important role in the North Atlantic and the Southern Ocean. The grazing pressure by zooplankton (top-down control), however, strongly contributes to the dominance of diatoms in PISCES and CCSM-BEC. The regional differences in the percentage of diatoms in PlankTOM5 are mainly determined by top-down control. These differences in the mechanisms suggest that the response of marine ecosystems to climate change could significantly differ among models, even if the present-day ecosystem is reproduced to a similar degree of confidence. For further understanding of plankton competition and for the prediction of future change in marine ecosystems, it is important to understand the relative differences in each physiological rate and life history rate in the bottom-up and the top-down controls between PFTs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The response of ocean phytoplankton community structure to climate change depends upon species competition for nutrients and light, as well as the increase in surface ocean temperature. We propose an analytical framework linking changes in nutrients, temperature and light with changes in phytoplankton growth rates, and we assess our theoretical considerations against model projections (1980-2100) from a global Earth System model. Our proposed "critical nutrient theory" suggests that there is a critical nutrient threshold below (above) which a nutrient change will affect more (less) small phytoplankton biomass than diatom biomass, i.e. the phytoplankton with lower half-saturation coefficient K are influenced more strongly in low nutrient environments. This nutrient threshold broadly corresponds to 45° S and 45° N, poleward of which high vertical mixing and inefficient biology maintain higher surface nutrient concentrations and equatorward of which reduced vertical mixing and more efficient biology maintain lower surface nutrients. In the 45° S-45° N low nutrient region, decreases in limiting nutrients - associated with increased stratification under climate change - are predicted analytically to limit more strongly the net growth of small phytoplankton than the growth of diatoms. In high latitudes, the impact of nutrient decrease on phytoplankton biomass is more significant for diatom biomass than for small phytoplankton biomass, and contributes to diatom declines in the northern marginal sea ice and subpolar biomes. Climate driven increases in surface temperature and changes in light are predicted to have a stronger impact on small phytoplankton than on diatom biomass in all ocean domains. Our analytical predictions explain reasonably well the shifts in community structure under a modeled climate-warming scenario. Further stratification from global warming could result in geographical shifts in the "critical nutrient" threshold and additional changes in ecology. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global warming is predicted to alter the ocean's biological productivity. But how will we recognise the impacts of climate change on ocean productivity? The most comprehensive information available on the global distribution of ocean productivity comes from satellite ocean colour data. Now that over ten years of SeaWiFS data have accumulated, can we begin to detect and attribute global warming trends in productivity? Here we compare recent trends in SeaWiFS data to longer-term records from three biogeo-chemical models (GFDL, IPSL and NCAR). We find that detection of real trends in the satellite data is confounded by the relatively short time series and large interannual and decadal variability in productivity. Thus, recent observed changes in chlorophyll, primary production and the size of the oligotrophic gyres cannot be unequivocally attributed to the impact of global warming. Instead, our analyses suggest that a time series of ~40 yr length is needed to distinguish a global warming trend from natural variability. Analysis of modelled chlorophyll and primary production from 2001-2100 suggests that, on average, the global warming trend will not be unambiguously separable from decadal variability until ~2055. Because the magnitude of natural variability in chlorophyll and primary production is larger than, or similar to, the global warming trend, a consistent, decades-long data record must be established if the impact of climate change on ocean productivity is to be definitively detected. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Phytoplankton photosynthesis links global ocean biology and climate-driven fluctuations in the physical environment. These interactions are largely expressed through changes in phytoplankton physiology, but physiological status has proven extremely challenging to characterize globally. Phytoplankton fluorescence does provide a rich source of physiological information long exploited in laboratory and field studies, and is now observed from space. Here we use satellite-based fluorescence measurements to evaluate light-absorption and energy-dissipation processes influencing phytoplankton light use efficiency and demonstrate its utility as a global physiological indicator of iron-limited growth conditions. This new tool provides a path for monitoring climate-phytoplankton physiology interactions, improving descriptions of light use efficiency in ocean productivity models, evaluating nutrient-stress predictions in ocean ecosystem models, and appraising phytoplankton responses to natural iron enrichments or purposeful iron fertilizations activities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A three dimensional, time-evolving field of atmospheric potential oxygen (APO ~ O2/N2 + CO2) is estimated using surface O2, N2 and CO2 fluxes from the WHOI ocean ecosystem model to force the MATCH atmospheric transport model. Land and fossil carbon fluxes are also run in MATCH and translated into O2 tracers using assumed O2:CO2 stoichiometries. The model seasonal cycles in APO agree well with the observed cycles at 13 global monitoring stations, with agreement helped by the inclusion of oceanic CO2 in the APO calculation. The model latitudinal gradient in APO is strongly influenced by seasonal rectifier effects in atmospheric transport, which appear at least partly unrealistic based on comparison to observations. An analysis of the APO vs. CO2 method for partitioning land and ocean carbon sinks is performed in the controlled context of the MATCH simulation, in which the true surface carbon and oxygen fluxes are known exactly. This analysis suggests uncertainty ranging up to ±0.2 PgC in the inferred sinks due to transport-induced variability. It also shows that interannual variability in oceanic O2 fluxes can cause increasingly large error in the 15 sink partitioning when the method is applied over increasingly short timescales. However, when decadal or longer averages are used, the variability in the oceanic O2 flux is relatively small, allowing carbon sinks to be partitioned to within a standard deviation of 0.1 Pg C/yr of the true values, provided one has an accurate estimate of long-term mean O2 outgassing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]