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The critically endangered golden sun-moth Synemon plana occurs in urban fringe areas of southeastern Australia that are currently experiencing rapid and extensive development. The urban fringe is a complex and uncertain environment in which to manage threatened species with the intersection of fragmented natural habitats, built environments and human populations generating novel, poorly understood interactions. In this context, management frameworks must incorporate ecological processes as well as social considerations. Here, we explore how biodiversity sensitive urban design might improve the fate of the golden sun-moth, and threatened species generally, in urban fringe environments. We: (i) developed an expert-informed Bayesian Belief Network model that synthesizes the current understanding of key determinants of golden sun-moth population viability at sites experiencing urbanizing pressure; (ii) quantified the nature and strength of cause-effect relationships between these factors using expert knowledge; and (iii) used the model to assess expectations of moth population viability in response to different combinations of management actions. We predict that adult survival, bare ground cover and cover of resource plants are the most important variables affecting the viability of golden sun-moth populations. We also demonstrate the potential for biodiversity sensitive urban design as a complementary measure to conventional management for this species. Our findings highlight how expert knowledge may be a valuable component of conservation management, especially in addressing uncertainty around conservation decisions when empirical data are lacking, and how structured expert judgements become critical in supporting decisions that may help ameliorate extinction risks faced by threatened species in urban environments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change and urbanization are among the most serious threats to amphibians, although little is known about their combined effects. We used a predictive spatial habitat suitability model to explore the potential impacts of climate change and urban development on the spotted marsh frog ( Limnodynastes tasmaniensis) on the urban-fringe of Melbourne, Australia. The CSIRO climate-change predictions for the region indicate likely temperature increases of 3°C, and annual rainfall reductions of around 200 mm by the year 2070. Much of the study area overlaps a region that has been identified as one of the city's growth corridors. We used Bayesian logistic regression modelling to estimate current and future habitat suitability of pond sites in the Merri Creek catchment, exploring a range of best- to worst-case scenarios through the use of hydrological and urbanization models. Our predictions for 2070, even under a moderate climate-change scenario, suggest that the majority of ponds in the study area will be dry throughout much of the year. This has obvious implications for L. tasmaniensis, which is an aquatic breeding species. However, in the short term, urbanization is likely to have a more significant effect on the distribution of L. tasmaniensis in the Merri Creek catchment, particularly if development moves beyond the current urban growth boundary. The combined effects of climate change and urbanization could have a profound impact on the species, potentially causing it to disappear from within the study area. We provide recommendations for including such predictive models in urban planning and restoration activities to prepare for future conservation challenges. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]