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The purpose of this study is to analyze the spatiotemporal variations in drought in Serbia over recent decades using the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI). The analysis is performed for time series of 1-, 3-, 6-, and 12-month SPEI indices (SPEI-01, SPEI-03, SPEI-06 and SPEI-12, respectively) calculated using the E -OBS gridded dataset with a horizontal resolution of 0.1° for the period of 1950–2022. In general, it was found that negative SPEI trends prevailed in Serbia for all months and all analyzed SPEI timescales, indicating a more frequent appearance of droughts in recent decades. Moreover, for a large majority of month-timescale combinations, the area with a negative trend was larger than the area with a positive trend. For several reasons, we focused on the SPEI for August. First, the SPEI for this month shows one of the most pronounced negative trends, which is rather consistent over different timescales and consistent in terms of the area over which the trend was found to be significant. Statistically significant negative trends of SPEI-03, −06 and − 12 for August were found over 11, 17 and 38% of the country area, respectively. To better understand the trends and changes in the SPEI for August, focusing on extreme and severe drought events, an innovative trend analysis (ITA) was applied. It was found that the occurrence of both extreme and severe SPEI drought categories has doubled over the last thirty years in comparison with the previous thirty-year period. Additionally, more frequent transitions from neutral and wet categories to dry categories were observed through an application of the Markov chain. Second, the special focus on SPEI-03, −06 and − 12 for August was motivated by the fact that we found a significant correlation between these index values and the annual maize production in Serbia, indicating that the SPEI for August can be useful for the assessment of drought impact on agriculture. To better understand interannual variability and long-term trends, this paper also explores the relations between the SPEI over Serbia and large-scale circulation patterns, together with general global and continental warming trends. Our findings indicate that drought changes over recent decades may be driven by the interplay of long-term warming and large-scale circulation patterns. In the context of climate change, especially climate projections, Serbia is situated in a region for which climate projections of mean precipitation change demonstrate weak signals and often with conflicting signs of change within multimodel ensembles. From this point of view, our results can be seen as a contribution to a better understanding of changes in extremes, in our case droughts, that can be hidden by inconclusive changes in the mean values. Finally, due to the similar situation in terms of precipitation and drought trends and changes, our results may be relevant for a wider region, and not only for Serbia. • For Serbia negative trends in SPEI index, for different months and timescales, are dominant. • Occurrence of extreme drought categories has doubled over the last decades. • Transitions from neutral and wet categories to dry categories are more frequent. • These changes are driven by long-term warming and large-scale circulation patterns. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Mediterranean region is a unique area characterized by a large spectrum of atmospheric phenomena, some of which have a high impact on many aspects of human activities, safety and wellbeing. The area is long considered as a hot spot of such atmospheric phenomena deserving multidisciplinary scientific attention. The scientific research that has been carried out on these high impact atmospheric processes that occur in the Mediterranean area is indeed widespread and the available international literature is very extensive. The paper touches initially the temperature and precipitation regimes, followed by a discussion of floods and droughts. The exciting cyclogenetic patterns of explosive cyclones and medicanes are presented in separate sections. The lightning activity and the presence of dust and other pollutants are also presented herein. The atmospheric chemistry of the region which is increasingly becoming of utmost importance for the area under study is distinctly discussed. Attempts to modify the weather (the precipitation, in particular) are outlined too. The effects of climatic change on various atmospheric processes are considered throughout this paper, in addition to a dedicated section on temperature and precipitation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

South Asian air pollutants exert substantial effect on the climate and environment change over the Tibetan Plateau (TP). This paper investigates the trans-boundary transport of PM 10 , PM 2.5 , and O 3 from South Asia to the TP via WRF-Chem sensitive analysis. It is found that PM 10 , PM 2.5 , and O 3 over South Asia are mainly sourced from anthropogenic sources. South Asian emissions contribute up to 54% of PM 10 (PM 2.5) in the TP in the pre-monsoon season. For O 3 , the highest contribution of 18.13% is in the monsoon season, while the lowest contribution of 8.67% is in the winter season. To evaluate the respective contributions of anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions in South Asia to PM 10 , PM 2.5 , and O 3 in the TP, anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions in South Asia are considered separately. The results show that the largest percentage contribution of PM 10 (PM 2.5) from South Asian anthropogenic emissions to PM 10 (PM 2.5) in the TP with value of 35.86% (37.77%) occurs in winter, while the lowest percentage contribution of 16.52% (16.77%) appears in the monsoon season. For O 3 , the largest contribution of 17.74% from South Asian anthropogenic emissions appears in the monsoon season, whereas the lowest contribution of 8.59% occurs in winter. Compared to the anthropogenic emissions, the biomass burning emissions in South Asia have a relative less contribution to PM 10 , PM 2.5 , and O 3 in the TP. The largest contribution of PM 10 (PM 2.5) from South Asian biomass burning emissions to PM 10 (PM 2.5) in the TP is 20.04% (18.37%) in the pre-monsoon season. Conversely, the lowest contribution of 0.58% (0.53) appears in the monsoon season. O 3 from South Asian biomass burning emissions contributes <1% to O 3 in the TP in each season, implying that the biomass burning emissions in South Asia have little effect on O 3 in the TP. This study is of great significance to the ecological environment protection for the TP. • Contributions of South Asian emissions to PM 10 , PM 2.5 , and O 3 in the TP are quantified. • Anthropogenic emissions in South Asia have a larger contribution to PM 10 , PM 2.5 , and O 3 in the TP. • O 3 from South Asian biomass burning emissions contributes <1% to O 3 in the Tibetan Plateau. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding climate extremes and indices is crucial for addressing climate change impacts, including the increased variability in local weather patterns and extreme events. Previous studies on the Arabian Peninsula (AP) have been limited by sparse station data and restricted spatial coverage. To overcome this limitation, this paper aims to assess the spatial distribution and temporal trends of temperature and precipitation indices suggested by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) using ERA5 reanalysis data from 1951 to 2020 for the AP. Additionally, this study investigated the changes relative to the reference period (1951–1980). The modified Mann-Kendall test and Sen's Slope estimator are utilized to detect significant trends and estimate their magnitude. Results revealed that ERA5 was consistent with previous studies that utilized in-situ station data, which offers a more detailed picture of the affected areas. The findings indicated a significant warming trend in temperature indices, with an increase of over 1 °C per decade observed across several areas, including the northern AP, and certain regions experiencing a discrepant change of 3 °C increase compared to the reference period. Changes in rainfall indices indicate a shift in rainfall patterns from the AP's fertile southwest regions towards more intense patterns in specific eastern regions, including Oman, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and Yemen. However, the precipitation temporal trends are weak in magnitude and variable spatially, with dominant decreases in both intensity (-10 mm per decade) and frequency indices (-5 days per decade). Some locations are subject to the combined effects of most heatwave indicators simultaneously, while flood indicators and yet others by drought indicators influence others. All these locations have been accurately identified in this study. The findings provide valuable information regarding the region's climate change vulnerability and adaptation needs. [Display omitted] • Prior studies relied on limited station data, short period, and MK trend test. • Extremes are assessed using ERA5, ETCCDI, Modified-MK, and Sen's Slope. • Affected areas are identified, and valuable insights for policymakers are set. • Significant warming trend: >1 °C/decade and > 2 °C change from reference period. • Spatiotemporal trends of precipitation are weak in magnitude and variable spatially. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Frequent drought disasters have significant impacts on socio-economic and ecosystems, and it is crucial to explore the propagation characteristics of drought for disaster prevention and mitigation. In this paper, based on 0.25° × 0.25° grid-point Meteorological hydrological and large-scale climate factor data, the start-to-start, peak-to-peak, and end-to-end drought propagation times, and the periods and rates of drought development and recovery were estimated for 11 regions in the Luanhe River Basin under stationary and non-stationary conditions. The Generalized Additive Model for Location, Scale and Shape (GAMLSS) framework was used to construct stationary and non-stationary models to capture the stationary and non-stationary drought characteristics respectively, and then the drought development and recovery patterns, and drought propagation times were assessed. The results showed that under the influence of climate factors, severe drought events occurred in most study areas, the duration of meteorological drought was prolonged by 0.1–0.6 months, and the peak intensity was increased by about 0.05. The severity of hydrological drought increased by 0.2–0.8, and the peak intensity decreased by 0.1–0.2. The rate of development and recovery of hydrological drought was accelerated by 0.1–0.2 per month. The propagation time of start-to-start was shortened by 0.2 months, and the propagation time of end-to-end was extended by 1–2 months. These mean that water resource control authorities need to propose responses to droughts more quickly. • The non-stationary drought indices considering climatic factors were constructed. • The drought propagation time was calculated from start to start, peak to peak, and end to end. • Quantification of the effects of climate change on drought propagation [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate classifications based on temperature and precipitation measurements are increasingly being used for environmental and climate change studies. Using three classification methods (Köppen, Extended Köppen, and Holdridge) and one observational dataset for present climate (CRU, Climate Research Unit), we show that GCMs have bridged the gap that led to the emergence of RCMs thirty years ago, as GCMs can now provide global climate classifications whose accuracy and precision are comparable to those of regional outputs of the RCMs. Projections of high-resolution GCMs for future climates under the assumptions of three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP26, RCP45 and RCP85) can therefore be used as a primary source for climate change and global warming studies at high resolution. This paper provides comprehensive, model-derived climate classifications for the entire planet, using RCMs and two GCMs for present and future climate-change scenarios, and discusses how well the models actually represent the climates of the world when compared with reference, ground validation data. It turns out that both GCMs and RCMs appear still limited to provide practical estimates of the world climates even for present climate conditions. The modeling of precipitation remains the Achilles' heel of models and thus of multidimensional indices, which are very sensitive to this variable. The conclusion is that model outputs at regional scale need to be taken with extreme caution without venturing into informing policies presenting potentially large societal impacts. Nonetheless, the role of models as privileged tools to advance our scientific knowledge of the Earth's system remains undisputed. • A systematic analysis of climate classifications with RCMs and two high resolution GCMs is presented. • Three classification methods are used to illustrate the differences between models and observations. • Current high-resolution GCMs can provide climate classifications with the same accuracy as those from RCMs. • Uncertainties in modeling precipitation persist for large parts of the world. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region has experienced a remarkable urbanization during the past 30years, and regional climate change and air pollution are becoming more and more evident due to urbanization. Impacts of urban canopy on regional climate and air quality in dry- and wet-season are investigated in this paper, utilizing the Weather Research and Forecasting/Chemistry (WRF/Chem) model. Four regimes of urban canopy schemes with updated USGS land-use data in actual state of 2004 base on MODIS observations are examined: (1) SLAB scheme that does not consider urban canopy parameters (the control experiment in this paper); (2) a single-layer urban model with a fixed diurnal profile for anthropogenic heat (UCM); (3) multilayer urban canopy model (BEP-Building effect parameterization); (4) multilayer urban models with a building energy model including anthropogenic heat due to air conditioning (BEP+BEM). Results show that, compared with observations, the best 2-m temperature estimates with minimum bias are obtained with SLAB and BEP+BEM schemes, while the best 10-m wind speed predictions are obtained with BEP and BEP+BEM scheme. For PM10 and ozone predictions, BEP+BEM scheme predicted PM10 well during January, while the best estimate of PM10 is obtained with UCM scheme during July, BEP+BEM and SLAB schemes best estimated ozone concentrations for both the two months. Spatial differences of meteorological factors between canopy schemes and control scheme show that compared with SLAB scheme, BEP and BEP+BEM schemes cause an increase of temperature with differences of 0.5°C and 0.3°C, respectively, UCM scheme simulates lower temperature with decrease of 0.7°C during January. In July, all the canopy experiments calculates lower air temperature with reduction of 0.5°C–1.6°C. All the canopy experiments compute lower 10-m wind speed for both January and July. Decreases were 0.7m/s (0.8m/s) with UCM, 1.7m/s (2.6m/s) with BEP, and 1.8m/s (2.3m/s) with BEP+BEM schemes in January (July), respectively. For chemical field distributions, results show that, compared with SLAB scheme, UCM scheme calculates higher PM10 concentration in both January and July, with the differences of 22.3% (or 24.4μg/m3) in January, and 31.4% (or 17.4μg/m3) in July, respectively. As large as 32.7% (or 18.3 μg/m3) of PM10 increase is found over Hangzhou city during July. While 18.6% (or 22.1 μg/m3) and 16.7% (or 24.6 μg/m3) of PM10 decreases are fund in BEP and BEP+BEM schemes during January. Compared with control experiment during January, 6.5% (or 2.6ppb) to 10.4% (4.2ppb) increases of ozone are computed over mage-cities by canopy experiments. All the three canopy schemes predict lower ozone concentrations and as large as 30.2% (or 11.2ppb) decrease is obtained with UCM scheme, and 16.5% (6.2ppb) decrease with BEP scheme during July. The SLAB scheme is suitable for real-time weather forecast while multiple urban canopy scheme is necessary when quantify the urbanization impacts on regional climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: This paper deals with a study on rainfall characterises of Dhaka, the capital city of Bangladesh for the period of 1953 to 2009. Data were collected from Bangladesh Meteorological Department in January 2011 and found 2.84% missing data. Descriptive statistical analysis was conducted on annual rainfall, annual daily and monthly maximum rainfall. We applied Gumbel distribution function to estimate return periods of extreme rainfall events and found that annual daily maximum rainfall equal or greater than 425mm had a return period of 100years. Normal distribution function was adopted to forecast rainfall variability due to global climate change and found that annual daily maximum rainfall equal or greater than 200mm might occur in any 12years during the period of 2010 to 2066. The outcomes of this paper can be used in better understanding rainfall patterns of Dhaka, Bangladesh. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Cities are becoming increasingly vulnerable to flooding because of rapid urbanization, installation of complex infrastructure, and changes in the precipitation patterns caused by anthropogenic climate change. The present paper provides a critical review of the current state-of-the-art methods for assessing the impacts of climate change on precipitation at the urban catchment scale. Downscaling of results from global circulation models or regional climate models to urban catchment scales are needed because these models are not able to describe accurately the rainfall process at suitable high temporal and spatial resolution for urban drainage studies. The downscaled rainfall results are however highly uncertain, depending on the models and downscaling methods considered. This uncertainty becomes more challenging for rainfall extremes since the properties of these extremes do not automatically reflect those of average precipitation. In this paper, following an overview of some recent advances in the development of innovative methods for assessing the impacts of climate change on urban rainfall extremes as well as on urban hydrology and hydraulics, several existing difficulties and remaining challenges in dealing with this assessment are discussed and further research needs are described. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: In most cases climate change projections from General Circulation Models (GCM) and Regional Climate Models (RCM) cannot be directly applied to climate change impact studies, and downscaling is therefore needed. A large number of statistical downscaling methods exist but no clear recommendations exist of which methods are more appropriate, depending on the application. This paper compares five statistical downscaling methods based on a common change factor methodology using results from four different RCMs driven by different GCMs. Precipitation time series for a future scenario are generated for a location north of Copenhagen for the period 2071–2100 under climate change projections by the scenario A1B. Special focus is given to the changes of extreme events since downscaling methods mainly differ in the way extreme events are generated. There is a significant uncertainty in the downscaled projected changes of the mean, standard deviation, skewness and probability of dry days. Large uncertainties are also observed in the downscaled changes in extreme event statistics. However, three of the four RCMs analysed show an increase in the extreme precipitation events in the future. The uncertainties are partly due to the variability of the RCM projections and partly due to the variability of the statistical downscaling methods. The paper highlights the importance of acknowledging the limitations and advantages of different statistical downscaling methods as well as the uncertainties in downscaling climate change projections for use in hydrological models. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The Arctic has undergone substantial changes over the last few decades in various cryospheric and derivative systems and processes. Of these, the Arctic sea ice regime has seen some of the most rapid change and is one of the most visible markers of Arctic change outside the scientific community. This has drawn considerable attention not only from the natural sciences, but increasingly, from the political and commercial sectors as they begin to grapple with the problems and opportunities that are being presented. The possible impacts of past and projected changes in Arctic sea ice, especially as it relates to climatic response, are of particular interest and have been the subject of increasing research activity. A review of the current knowledge of the role of sea ice in the climate system is therefore timely. We present a review that examines both the current state of understanding, as regards the impacts of sea-ice loss observed to date, and climate model projections, to highlight hypothesised future changes and impacts on storm tracks and the North Atlantic Oscillation. Within the broad climate-system perspective, the topics of storminess and large-scale variability will be specifically considered. We then consider larger-scale impacts on the climatic system by reviewing studies that have focused on the interaction between sea-ice extent and the North Atlantic Oscillation. Finally, an overview of the representation of these topics in the literature in the context of IPCC climate projections is presented. While most agree on the direction of Arctic sea-ice change, the rates amongst the various projections vary greatly. Similarly, the response of storm tracks and climate variability are uncertain, exacerbated possibly by the influence of other factors. A variety of scientific papers on the relationship between sea-ice changes and atmospheric variability have brought to light important aspects of this complex topic. Examples are an overall reduction in the number of Arctic winter storms, a northward shift of mid-latitude winter storms in the Pacific and a delayed negative NAO-like response in autumn/winter to a reduced Arctic sea-ice cover (at least in some months). This review paper discusses this research and the disagreements, bringing about a fresh perspective on this issue. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) is being used for different and diverse purposes, ranging from atmospheric and dispersion of pollutants forecasting to agricultural meteorology and ecological modelling as well as for hydrological purposes, among others. The current paper presents a comprehensive assessment of the RAMS forecasts, comparing the results not only with observed standard surface meteorological variables, measured at FLUXNET stations and other portable and permanent weather stations located over the region of study, but also with non-standard observed variables, such as the surface energy fluxes, with the aim of evaluating the surface energy budget and its relation with a proper representation of standard observations and key physical processes for a wide range of applications. In this regard, RAMS is assessed against in-situ surface observations during a selected period within July 2011 over Eastern Spain. In addition, the simulation results are also compared with different surface remote sensing data derived from the Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager (SEVIRI) (MSG-SEVIRI) as well as the uncoupled Land Surface Models (LSM) Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS). Both datasets complement the available in-situ observations and are used in the current study as the reference or ground truth when no observations are available on a selected location. Several sensitivity tests have been performed involving the initial soil moisture content, by adjusting this parameter in the vertical soil profile ranging from the most superficial soil layers to those located deeper underground. A refined adjustment of this parameter in the initialization of the model has shown to better represent the observed surface energy fluxes. The results obtained also show an improvement in the model forecasts found in previous studies in relation to standard observations, such as the air temperature and the moisture fields. Therefore, the application of a drier or wetter soil in distinct soil layers within the whole vertical soil profile has been found to be crucial in order to produce a better agreement between the simulation and the observations, thus reiterating the determining role of the initial soil moisture field in mesoscale modelling, but in this case considering the variation of this parameter vertically. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent studies found a long-term drought and resulting declines in vegetation greenness and canopy water content over the Congo Basin, the second largest rainforest in the world after the Amazon. Since most precipitation in tropical latitudes stems from convection, this paper analyzed 35 years of high-resolution (8 km spatial resolution and 3 h temporal resolution) satellite data to document the long-term trends in the number, size and intensity of thunderstorms activity over the Congo Basin during April, May, and June (AMJ) for the period 1982–2016. Changes in the magnitude and area of cold cloud top brightness temperatures ( T b ) at different thresholds were used as a proxy to quantify the number and size of individual thunderstorms at different intensities. We found that the areal extent and intensity of thunderstorms increased over the past 35 years, particularly over Northern Congo Basin, and these changes are consistent with other satellite datasets. Combined with a reanalysis dataset, our work suggests that thunderstorms over the Congo Basin are becoming taller and wider, and likely resulting in a moister (drier) upper (lower) troposphere. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With population growth and climate change increasing the exposure of communities and assets to extreme hydrological events, such as floods and droughts, it is crucial to make accurate and timely early warning, climate adaptation and water management information available that can help minimize the loss of the limited quantities of water in arid regions. Trend estimation using wavelets has continued to attract ubiquitous applications in various fields including atmospheric and water studies. While Fourier analysis employs big waves, wavelet analysis uses small waves. Since wavelets localise features in a signal data to different scales, we can therefore preserve vital signal features while removing noise in the signal. Hence the basic notion of wavelet denoising or wavelet thresholding is that the wavelet transform results in a sparse representation for many real-world signals, meaning that the wavelet transform concentrates signal features in a few large-magnitude wavelet coefficients. Since small wavelet coefficients are typically noise, we can “shrink” or remove them without affecting the signal quality. This paper employs wavelet analyses of some selected meteorological factors of the Namibian atmosphere to investigate the noise in the data collected from a number of Southern African Science Service Centre for Climate Change and Adaptive Land Management (SASSCAL) stations, for the years 2012 to 2015. The results show some significant levels of noise around the thresholds of various optimal time series peaks of the data. Hence the denoised data serve to represent fairly refined representations of data for the given period. Moreover, the results of comparing the optimal game model solutions for the original and denoised data specifically identified some weather stations that are “humidity noise stable” and “temperature noise stable”. Thus, these suggest that despite the noise in the respective meteorological data for these stations, the effects of the noise in the data appear to be manageable or optimally controllable, within the given period. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: There is growing interest in the impact of climate change on urban hydrological processes. Such assessment may be based on the precipitation output from climate models. To date, the model resolution in both time and space has been too low for proper assessment, but at least in time the resolution of available model output is approaching urban scales. In this paper, 30-min precipitation from a model grid box covering Kalmar City, Sweden, is compared with high-resolution (tipping-bucket) observations from a gauge in Kalmar. The model is found to overestimate the frequency of low rainfall intensities, and therefore the total volume, but reasonably well reproduce the highest intensities. Adapting climate model data to urban drainage applications can be done in several ways but a popular way is the so-called Delta Change (DC) method. In this method, relative changes in rainfall characteristics estimated from climate model output are transferred to an observed rainfall time series, generally by multiplicative factors. In this paper, a version of the method is proposed in which these DC factors (DCFs) are related to the rainfall intensity level. This is achieved by calculating changes in the probability distribution of rainfall intensities and modelling the DCFs as a function of percentile. Applying this method in Kalmar indicated that in summer and autumn, high intensities will increase by 20–60% by year 2100, whereas low intensities remain stable or decrease. In winter and spring, generally all intensity levels increase similarly. The results were transferred to the observed time series by varying the volume of the tipping bucket to reflect the estimated intensity changes on a 30-min time scale. In an evaluation of the transformed data at a higher 5-min resolution, effects on the intensity distribution as well as single precipitation events were demonstrated. In particular, qualitatively different changes in peak intensity and total volume are attainable, which is required in light of expected future changes of the precipitation process and a step forward as compared with simpler DC approaches. Using the DC transformed data as input in urban drainage simulations for a catchment in Kalmar indicated an increase of the number of surface floods by 20–45% during this century. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Concern about climate change has amplified the need for accurate information about variations in statistical characteristics of extreme rainfall events in both smaller temporal and spatial scale. For this reason, in this paper the hourly precipitation measurements obtained at the Department of Meteorology and Climatology of the Aristotle University of Thessaloniki meteorological station, during the period 1947–2003, are used. A new threshold determining method is proposed, in order to define the extreme rainfall event in Thessaloniki, based upon the polynomial trends of the cumulative distribution functions, retrieved from hourly precipitation measurements. Through this approach, three statistical goodness-of-fit tests were carried out, in order to come up with the best fitting probability distributions, for annual and seasonal extreme precipitation conditions. Based upon this fitting distribution procedure, return periods for different precipitation extreme values were calculated. Results indicate that the value of 6.5 mm/h is the hourly threshold of extreme precipitation in Thessaloniki over the studied period. Furthermore, the Generalized Pareto, and the Johnson SB, the log-Gamma and the Lognormal are the best fitted probability models for the description of annual and seasonal extreme rainfall events, respectively. Last but not least, the contribution of hourly data in the accuracy of the results is discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Regional precipitation patterns may change in a warmer climate, thereby increasing flood and drought risks. In this paper, annual, annual maximum, intense, heavy, moderate, light, and trace precipitation are employed as indicators to assess changes in precipitation patterns under two scenarios in which the global mean temperature increases by 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C relative to pre-industrial levels using the regional climate model COSMO-CLM (CCLM). The results show that annual precipitation in China will be approximately 2.5% higher under 1.5 °C warming relative to the present-day baseline (1980–2009), although it will decrease by approximately 4.0% under an additional 0.5 °C increase in global mean temperature. This trend is spatially consistent for regions with annual precipitation of 400–800 mm, which has experienced a drying trend during the past half century; thus, limiting global warming to 1.5 °C may mitigate these drying conditions. The annual maximum precipitation continues to increase from present day levels to the 2.0 °C warming scenario. Relative to the baseline period, the frequency of trace and light precipitation days exhibits a negative trend, while that of moderate, heavy, and intense precipitation days has a positive trend under the 1.5 °C warming scenario. For the 2.0 °C warming world, the frequency of days is projected to decrease for all precipitation categories, although the intensity of intense precipitation increases. Spatially, a decrease in the number of precipitation days is expected to continue in central and northern China, where a drying trend has persisted over the past half century. Southeastern China, which already suffers greatly from flooding, is expected to face more heavy and intense precipitation with an additional 0.5 °C increase in global mean temperature. Meanwhile, the intensity of intense precipitation is expected to increase in northern China, and the contribution of light and moderate precipitation to the annual precipitation is expected to decrease in southeastern China. Therefore, flood risk in northern China and drought risk in southern China should draw more attention for a global air temperature increase from 1.5 °C to 2.0 °C. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent years, climate extreme events have caused increasing direct economic and social losses in the arid region of northwestern China. Based on daily temperature and precipitation data from 1960 to 2010, this paper discussed the linear trend and abrupt changes of climate indices. The general evolution was obtained by the empirical orthogonal function (EOF), the Mann-Kendall test, and the distribution-free cumulative sum chart (CUSUM) test. The results are as follows: (1) climate showed a warming trend at annual and seasonal scale, with all temperature indices exhibiting statistically significant changes. The warm indices have increased, with 1.37%days/decade of warm days (TX90p), 0.17 °C/decade of warmest days (TXx) and 1.97 days/decade of warm spell duration indicator (WSDI), respectively. The cold indices have decreased, with − 1.89%days/decade, 0.65 °C/decade and − 0.66 days/decade for cold nights (TN10p), coldest nights (TNn) and cold spell duration indicator (CSDI), respectively. The precipitation indices have also increased significantly, coupled with the changes of magnitude (max 1-day precipitation amount (RX1day)), frequency (rain day (R0.1)), and duration (consecutive dry days (CDD)). (2) Abrupt changes of the annual regional precipitation indices and the minimum temperature indices were observed around 1986, and that of the maximum temperature indices were observed in 1996. (3) The EOF1 indicated the overall coherent distribution for the whole study area, and its principal component (PC1) was also observed, showing a significant linear trend with an abrupt change, which were in accordance with the regional observation results. EOF2 and EOF3 show contrasts between the southern and northern study areas, and between the eastern and western study areas, respectively, whereas no significant tendency was observed for their PCs. Hence, the climate indices have changed significantly, with linear trends and abrupt changes noted for all climate indices, which will have serious impacts on water resources and ecological environment in the arid region of China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding future climate change is crucial for securing and managing water supplies necessary for agricultural activities in China, particularly in rainfed agriculture regions. This paper evaluates the projected climate change for nine major agricultural zones in China, using ensembles of regional climate models (RCMs) simulated under the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment-East Asia second phase (CORDEX-EA-II) framework. The simulations were conducted for two climate scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5) at a 25 km grid spacing, with three RCMs (RegCM4, REMO, and WRF) driven by multiple CMIP5 global climate models (GCMs). The study compares the RCM simulations to the driving CMIP5 and the recent CMIP6 ensembles, focusing on surface temperature, precipitation, and surface relative humidity for the present day (1981–2010), mid-future (2036–2065), and far future (2070–2099) periods. The model evaluations indicate that the GCM and RCM simulations are consistent with observations, with RCMs showing better performance than the driving GCMs. The results show that both GCMs and RCMs project increased temperature and precipitation in most agricultural zones of China in the future, with the CMIP6 ensembles projecting the largest temperature increase and the CORDEX-EA-II ensemble showing the finest spatial details. Relative humidity is projected to decrease over major rice-producing areas of South China in the CORDEX-EA-II, CMIP5, and CMIP6 ensembles. This study provides valuable information to support climate change adaptation and mitigation efforts in China, particularly in the agricultural sectors. • CORDEX-EA-II simulations demonstrate better model performance over China. • Temperature and precipitation are projected to increase in the future. • Relative humidity is projected to decrease over South China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

On 5 September 2015 a violent hailstorm hit the Gulf and the city of Naples in Italy. The storm originated over the Tyrrhenian Sea dropping 7–10 cm diameter hailstones along its path. During its mature phase, at 08:47 UTC, the hailstorm was captured by one overpass of the Global Precipitation Measurement mission Core Observatory (GPM-CO) embarking the GPM Microwave Imager (GMI) and the Ka/Ku-band Dual-frequency Precipitation Radar (DPR). In this paper, observations by both GMI and DPR are thoroughly analyzed in conjunction with other spaceborne and ground-based measurements, to show how the GPM-CO integrates established observational tools in monitoring, understanding, and characterizing severe weather. Rapid-scan MSG SEVIRI images show an extremely rapid development, with 10.8 μm cloud-top temperatures dropping by 65 K in 40 min down to 198 K. The LIghtning NETwork registered over 37,000 strokes in 5 h, with intracloud positive stroke fraction increasing during the regeneration phases, when ground-based polarimetric radar and DPR support the presence of large graupel/hail particles. DPR Ku 40 dBZ and 20 dBZ echo top heights at 14 km and 16 km, respectively, indicate strong updraft and deep overshooting. GMI extremely low brightness temperatures (TBs) in correspondence of the convective core (158, 97, 67, and 87 K at 18.7, 36.5, 89 and 166 GHz) are compatible with the presence of massive ice particles. In two years of GPM global observations the storm ranks as fourth and first in terms of minimum 36.5 and 18.7 GHz (V-pol) TBs, respectively. This study illustrates GPM-CO sensing capabilities for characterizing the structure of such severe hailstorm, while providing observational evidence of its intensity and rarity, both globally and over the Mediterranean area. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper provides an account of observed variations in Black carbon (BC) aerosol concentrations and their induced radiative forcing for the first time over Granada a measurement site in Southeastern Iberian Peninsula. Column-integrated BC concentrations were retrieved for the period 2005–2012. Monthly averages of BC concentrations (± one standard deviation) ranged from higher values in January and December with 4.0 ± 2.5 and 4 ± 3 mg/m 2 , respectively, to lower values in July and August with 1.6 ± 1.2 and 2.0 ± 0.5 mg/m 2 , respectively. This reduction is not only observed in the average values, but also in the median, third and first quartiles. The average BC concentration in winter (3.8 ± 0.6 mg/m 2 ) was substantially higher than in summer (1.9 ± 0.3 mg/m 2 ), being the eight-year average of 2.9 ± 0.9 mg/m 2 . The reduction in the use of fossil fuels during the economic crisis contributed significantly to reduced atmospheric loadings of BC. According to our analysis this situation persisted until 2010. BC concentration values were analyzed in terms of air mass influence using cluster analysis. BC concentrations for cluster 1 (local and regional areas) showed high correlations with air masses frequency in winter and autumn. In these seasons BC sources were related to the intense road traffic and increased BC emissions from domestic heating. High BC concentrations were found in autumn just when air mass frequencies for cluster 3 (Mediterranean region) were more elevated, suggesting that air masses coming from that area transport biomass burning particles towards Granada. BC aerosol optical properties were retrieved from BC fraction using aerosol AERONET size volume distribution and Mie theory. A radiative transfer model (SBDART) was used to estimate the aerosol radiative forcing separately for composite aerosol (total aerosols) and exclusively for BC aerosols. The mean radiative forcing for composite aerosol was + 23 ± 6 W/m 2 (heating rate of + 0.21 ± 0.06 K/day) and + 15 ± 6 W/m 2 for BC aerosol (heating rate of + 0.15 ± 0.06 K/day). These values of radiative forcing and heating rate for BC aerosol represent about 70% of their values for composite aerosol, which highlights the crucial role that BC aerosols play in modifying the radiation budget and climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A great dust storm occurred in Tehran on 2 June 2014 and caused severe damage to properties and involved loss of human life. From the visual evidence available, it can be regarded as a case of haboob. As a lower latitude phenomenon, its occurrence in Tehran was unprecedented in the last 50 years. This paper aims to present a detailed analysis of the weather conditions, the pathways by which dust particles were ingested by the haboob, as well as the impact of the urban boundary layer on the intensity and propagation of the dust storm. Using numerical simulation carried out by the WRF-Chem model and various observational techniques, the coupling of a low-level small-scale deformation field with a lower-tropospheric cold pool produced by precipitating mid-tropospheric clouds is identified as the main process involved in shaping this rare dust storm. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is the dominant mode of sub-seasonal climate variability in the global tropics. As such it represents an opportunity for intra-seasonal rainfall prediction and, perhaps, for explaining dynamics that underlie longer term variability and trends. This opportunity is of substantial interest for tropical Africa, where rainfall variability has significant impacts on agriculture, energy, and natural ecosystems. The objective of this review paper is to inventory and assess the state of knowledge of MJO influence on African rainfall. A number of studies have identified statistical links between MJO and sub-seasonal rainfall variability in West, East, and Southern Africa. The proposed mechanisms to explain this influence differ by region and by season, and they often involve multiscale interactions between local precipitation processes and MJO-associated atmospheric dynamics. Dynamically-based forecast systems have some skill in predicting MJO evolution to time horizons of 3–4 weeks, and some can capture teleconnections to Africa. On longer time scales, there is evidence that MJO activity both modulates and is modulated by the El Niño Southern Oscillation and the Indian Ocean Dipole. The implications of these interactions for MJO connections to Africa require further research, as does the potential for trends in MJO behavior and impacts on Africa under global climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, the HYSPLIT model, driven with reanalysis meteorological data from 1978 to 2013, was used to understand the potential transport characteristics of dust and salt dust emanating from the playa of Ebinur Lake in arid northwest China. Daily air parcel trajectories were computed forward for 8 days from an origin centered over Ebinur Lake at 100 m above ground level. Air parcel trajectory density plots were mapped for seven levels: 0–100 m agl., 100–500 m agl., 500–1000 m agl., 1000–1500 m agl., 1500–2000 m agl., 2000–3000 m agl., and 3000–5000 m agl. These show that potential dust transport pathways have clear seasonal differentiation. The potential transport distance of dust and salt dust is greatest in spring and summer. In autumn and winter, the potential transport of the high-density air trajectory is below 1000 m traveling a shorter distance. Potential dust transport pathways showed notifying directivity in different seasons and heights. Southeast in spring and summer, and north to northeast in autumn and winter are the two main potential transport channels of dust and salt dust. Accordingly, dust and salt dust from the playa of Ebinur Lake may influence the atmospheric processes and biogeochemical cycles of a vast region. The main area of influence of dust and salt dust is close to the source area, and will significantly accelerate the melting of snow and ice in the Tianshan Mountains. This highlights the urgent need to combine remote sensing, isotope and other methods to further research the transport characteristics of dust and salt dust from the playa of the Ebinur Lake. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Thunderstorms, which usually occur when there are cumulonimbus (Cb) clouds in the sky, can be a natural hazard if they are severe. Most previous studies have focused on the physical and dynamic structure of thunderstorms, with little focus on exploring the trends of thunderstorm occurrence. In this paper, the time series of days with thunderstorms were studied at 30 synoptic stations in Iran during the past five decades (1961 to 2010). The non-parametric Mann–Kendall statistical method was the main approach employed since it is very useful in hydro-meteorological studies. The results of this study showed that the trend of days with thunderstorms in Iran was positive in most parts of the country for all months of the year. The largest area with positive and significant trends occurred in April and May, especially in the northwestern and northern parts of Iran. Based on the annual time series, more than 90% of the country's area had positive (significant or non-significant) trends. In addition, no significant negative trends were observed in days with thunderstorms for any months of the year in the study region. This research supports the hypothesis that climate change can have significant effects on extreme atmospheric phenomena. Additional research is necessary to explore the climatic and physical causes of the trends presented in this study. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent climate change is characterized (among other things) by changes in the frequency of some meteorological phenomena. This paper deals with the long-term changes in various precipitation types, and the connection between their variability and cloud type frequencies, at 11 meteorological stations from Eastern Romania over 1961–2008. These stations were selected with respect to data record completeness for all considered variables (weather phenomena and cloud type). The meteorological variables involved in the present study are: monthly number of days with rain, snowfall, snow showers, rain and snow (sleet), sleet showers and monthly frequency of the Cumulonimbus, Nimbostratus and Stratus clouds. Our results show that all stations present statistically significant decreasing trends in the number of days with rain in the warm period of the year. Changes in the frequency of days for each precipitation type show statistically significant decreasing trends for non-convective (stratiform) precipitation – rain, drizzle, sleet and snowfall –, while the frequencies of rain shower and snow shower (convective precipitation) are increasing. Cloud types show decreasing trends for Nimbostratus and Stratus, and increasing trends for Cumulonimbus. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The assessment of future precipitation variations prevailing in an area is essential for the research regarding climate and climate change. The current paper focuses on 3 selected areas in Greece that present different climatic characteristics due to their location and aims to assess and compare the future variation of annual and seasonal precipitation. Future precipitation data from the ENSEMBLES anthropogenic climate-change (ACC) global simulations and the Climate version of the Local Model (CLM) were obtained and analyzed. The climate simulations were performed for the future periods 2021–2050 and 2071–2100 under the A1B and B1 scenarios. Mann–Kendall test was applied to investigate possible trends. Spatial distribution of precipitation was performed using a combination of dynamic and statistical downscaling techniques and Kriging method within ArcGIS 10.2.1. The results indicated that for both scenarios, reference periods and study areas, precipitation is expected to be critically decreased. Additionally, Mann–Kendall test application showed a strong downward trend for every study area. Furthermore, the decrease in precipitation for the Ardas River basin characterized by the continental climate will be tempered, while in the Sperchios River basin it will be smoother due to the influence of some minor climatic variations in the basins' springs in the highlands where milder conditions occur. Precipitation decrease in the Geropotamos River basin which is characterized by Mediterranean climate will be more vigorous. B1 scenario appeared more optimistic for the Ardas and Sperchios River basins, while in the Geropotamos River basin, both applied scenarios brought similar results, in terms of future precipitation response. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The chemical composition and size distribution characteristics of atmospheric aerosols have important effects on the environment, human health and climate change. In this paper, we study the size distribution of carbonaceous aerosols at the remote and pristine site, Nam Co Monitoring and Research Station for Multisphere Interactions, in the inland Tibetan Plateau (TP) based on collected size-segregated aerosols during 2012. The samples were quantified using the thermal/optical (TOR) method. The overall average concentrations of OC and EC in TSP, PM 9.0 , PM 2.1 , and PM 1.0 were 4.61 μg m − 3 and 0.19 μg m − 3 , 4.52 μg m − 3 and 0.18 μg m − 3 , 2.72 μg m − 3 and 0.11 μg m − 3 , and 2.11 μg m − 3 and 0.09 μg m − 3 , respectively. Generally, the highest concentration of OC and EC in different aerosol size occurred during winter. The low level of EC indicated that direct anthropogenic disturbances in the interior of the TP still remain insignificant. The size distributions of OC and EC concentrations presented bimodal variations. In winter, pre-monsoon, monsoon, and post-monsoon seasons, the peaks for OC were in droplet mode (0.43–0.65 μm) and coarse mode (4.7–5.8 μm); while in the monsoon period, the coarse mode shifted to a smaller size bin (3.3–4.7 μm). The coarse mode may be due to dust particles while the droplet mode may be due to the growth process of particles. For EC, the peaks variations in coarse mode were as same as OC, while the other peaks were complicated: the peaks during winter, pre-monsoon, and monsoon seasons exhibited in droplet mode (1.1–2.1 μm, 0.65–1.1 μm, and 0.43–0.65 μm, respectively), and in post-monsoon period, the peak located in condensation mode. The highest peak concentrations for OC and EC occurred in winter and the pre-monsoon period, while the lowest peak values in the monsoon and post-monsoon periods, respectively. The size distribution variations may be caused by deposition, gas/particles exchange, hygroscopic growth, external mixing, and secondary organic carbon formation. OC/EC ratios in aerosols over the TP mostly exhibit high values, which emphasizes the importance of OC over this region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An accurate cloud top retrieval from geostationary (GEO) and low earth orbit (LEO) platforms is still a pending problem. This particularly holds for low level clouds. Furthermore, cloud top height is a crucial parameter to calculate cloud immersion of underlying terrain from GEO/LEO data and thus, for the discrimination between low level stratus and ground fog, where the latter is a main obstruction for air, land and sea traffic. All problems are particularly evident for ocean areas such as the Yellow Sea where no ground observations are available. In this paper, a novel method is presented to retrieve low stratus/fog top heights with special reference to the Yellow Sea and its surroundings, based on GEO data of MTSAT-1 and MTSAT-2 (JAMI sensor) and LEO data (MODIS sensor on Terra and Aqua) using the infrared (IR) water vapor and split-window bands. Two cases with very good data coverage are discussed where the retrieved low stratus/fog heights are compared to CALIPSO cloud top heights, and simulated data using the mesoscale model WRF. The comparison of JAMI retrievals with the spatial data sources used shows an encouraging accuracy (root-mean-square error, RMSE, around 300 m) in comparison to other retrieval schemes base on IR data hitherto published. A validation of the retrievals for the position of two radiosonde stations using available sounding data of seven foggy days revealed an even better performance with an average deviation of 184 m (standard deviation of 132 m). However, the validation revealed that the application of the underlying equations to retrieve inversion strength and thickness under foggy conditions would need some adjustments because the equations taken from the work of Liu and Key (2003) were originally developed for clear sky situations. Thus, the adaptation of the original scheme during future work should especially address cloudy conditions under moderate inversion strengths which could lead to an improvement of the retrieval accuracy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The present paper shows an in-depth analysis of the evolution of floods and precipitation in Catalonia for the period 1981–2010. In order to have homogeneous information, and having in mind that not gauge data was available for all the events, neither for all the rivers and stream flows, daily press from a specific newspaper has been systematically analysed for this period. Furthermore a comparison with a longer period starting in 1900 has been done. 219 flood events (mainly flash flood events) have been identified for the period of 30 years (375 starting in 1900), 79 of them were ordinary, 117 of them were extraordinary and 23 of them were catastrophic, being autumn and summer the seasons with the maxima values. 19% of the events caused a total of 110 casualties. 60% of them died when they tried to cross the street or the stream. Factors like the evolution of precipitation, population density and other socio-economical aspects have been considered. The trend analysis shows an increase of 1 flood/decade that probably has been mainly due to inter-annual and intra-annual changes in population density and in land-use and land-cover. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the completion of Three Gorges Project and its water impoundment started from 2003, a big reservoir with water area of 1.08×109 m2 and volume of 3.93×1010 m3 has been formed, which causes the surrounding microclimate changed. This paper compared the changes of meteorological parameters and Cloud-to-Groundare one of the reasons that lead to lighting activity enhancing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The Arctic Oscillation (AO) has been found in previous studies to be a major synoptic factor affecting the climate of many regions in the high and mid-latitudes. This paper demonstrates the physical process by which the AO affects the climate of the Eastern Mediterranean basin, with a focus on precipitation in Israel as a case study. It is shown that a trend of increasing AO is associated with a substantial decrease of winter precipitation from the Iberian Peninsula, though Italy, Greece, Turkey and Cyprus, as well as Lebanon, Syria and also the northern parts of Israel. Winter rain is slightly increased in the southern coast of the eastern half of the Mediterranean Sea. The immediate meteorological causes are shown to be a larger northerly component of the flow over the Mediterranean Sea, associated with a decreasing relative humidity and stability, except over the southern coast, where the air mass has the longest track over the relatively warm water. We suggest here that the observed changes in air flow that drives the precipitation trends can be explained by shifts in the AO that can be partially explained by increasing greenhouses gases. Results from the IPCC multi climate models show that the AO will continue to increase during the 21st century. This increase may lead to a continuation of the trends discussed here. The importance of the analysis provided here is in pointing out the possibility that processes that have been predicted by global warming and changes in global circulation have already started to affect precipitation and major water resources in the Mediterranean basin. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Southeast Asia (SEA) hosts one of the most complex aerosol systems in the world, with convoluted meteorological scales, sharp geographic and socioeconomic features, high biological productivity, mixtures of a wide range of atmospheric pollutants, and likely a significant susceptibility to global climate change. This physical complexity of SEA is coupled with one of the world''s most challenging environments for both in situ and remote sensing observation. The 7-Southeast Asian Studies (7SEAS) program was formed to facilitate interdisciplinary research into the integrated SEA aerosol environment via grass roots style collaboration. In support of the early 7SEAS program and the affiliated Southeast Asia Composition, Cloud, Climate Coupling Regional Study (SEAC4RS), this review was created to outline the network of connections linking aerosol particles in SEA with meteorology, climate and the total earth system. In this review, we focus on and repeatedly link back to our primary data source: satellite aerosol remote sensing and associated observability issues. We begin with a brief rationale for the program, outlining key aerosol impacts and, comparing their magnitudes to the relative uncertainty of observations. We then discuss aspects of SEA''s physical, socio-economic and biological geography relevant to meteorology and observability issues associated with clouds and precipitation. We show that not only does SEA pose significant observability challenges for aerosol particles, but for clouds and precipitation as well. With the fundamentals of the environment outlined, we explore SEA''s most studied aerosol issue: biomass burning. We summarize research on bulk aerosol properties for SEA, including a short synopsis of recent AERONET observations. We describe long range transport patterns. Finally, considerable attention is paid to satellite aerosol observability issues, with a face value comparison of common aerosol products in the region including passive and active aerosol products as well as fluxes. We show that satellite data products diverge greatly due to a host of known artifacts. These artifacts have important implications for how research is conducted, and care must be taken when using satellite products to study aerosol problems. The paper ends with a discussion of how the community can approach this complex and important environment. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The objective of this paper is to study the spatial and temporal variability of the Aridity Index (AI) in Greece, per decade, during the 50-year period (1951–2000). Besides, the projected changes in ensemble mean AI between the period 1961–1990 (reference period) and the periods 2021–2050 (near future) and 2071–2100 (far future) along with the inter-model standard deviations were presented, based on the simulation results, derived from a number of Regional Climatic Models (RCMs), within the ENSEMBLE European Project. The projection of the future climate was done under SRES A1B. The climatic data used, concern monthly precipitation totals and air temperature from 28 meteorological stations (22 stations from the Hellenic National Meteorological Service and 6 stations from neighboring countries, taken from the Monthly Climatic Data for the World). The estimation of the AI was carried out based on the potential evapotranspiration (PET) defined by Thornthwaite (1948). The data processing was done by the application of the statistical package R-project and the Geographical Information Systems (GIS). The results of the analysis showed that, within the examined period (1951–2000), a progressive shift from the “humid” class, which characterized the wider area of Greece, towards the “sub-humid” and “semi-arid” classes appeared in the eastern Crete Island, the Cyclades complex, the Evia and Attica, that is mainly the eastern Greece. The most significant change appears during the period 1991–2000. The future projections at the end of twentieth century, using ensemble mean simulations from 8 RCMs, show that drier conditions are expected to establish in regions of Greece (Attica, eastern continental Greece, Cyclades, Dodecanese, eastern Crete Island and northern Aegean). The inter-model standard deviation over these regions ranges from 0.02 to 0.05 against high values (0.09–0.15) illustrated in western mountainous continental Greece, during 2021–2050. Higher values of inter-model standard deviation appear in the 2071–2100 ranging from 0.02 to 0.10 reaching even 0.50 over mountainous regions of the country. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Diurnal temperature range (DTR) is a meteorological indicator independent of internal climate variation and therefore, considered as a signature of observed climate change. It has been observed that global averaged DTR has decreased significantly in the last fifty years. However, the change in DTR has regional and seasonal characteristics. A study has been carried out in this paper to analyze the spatial and seasonal patterns in the trends of DTR in Bangladesh. Daily temperature data from 18 stations for the time period 1961–2008 has been used for the study. The result shows that both mean minimum and mean maximum temperatures of Bangladesh have increased significantly at a rate of 0.15°C/decade and 0.11°C/decade, respectively. However, the increase of minimum temperature compared to maximum temperature is not high enough to cause a significant change in average diurnal temperature range in Bangladesh. Seasonal DTR trends show a decrease in winter and pre-monsoon DTR, and an increase in monsoon DTR. Spatial distribution of DTR trends shows an increase of annual DTR in the southeastern coastal stations and decrease in the northern stations of Bangladesh. Significant negative relation between rainfall and DTR is observed in Bangladesh. Regression analysis shows that an annual increase of 1% of rainfall is correlated with a decrease of DTR by 0.1°C. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The aim of this paper is to present the partial trends of rainy days and total precipitation in Córdoba Province, Argentina, during the period 1960–2010 and the full range of precipitation for the Córdoba Observatory station, which has the longest measurement record in Argentina, 1873–2010, and to show the relationship between these variables and solar activity. A strong association is shown between break points when the trend changes for both the number of rainy days and the total precipitation, and the occurrence of maxima in the sunspot cycle, indicating that these variables are modulated by the solar Hale cycle and probably by the influence of cosmic rays. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Cirrus is composed of non-spherical ice crystals, and against the blue background of the sky, they appear as tenuous wispy clouds, usually located at altitudes greater than about 6km. Their spatial and temporal distribution about the Earth''s atmosphere is significant. With such distributions, their contributions to the Earth''s natural greenhouse effect and hydrological cycle are important. Therefore, it is important that climate models are able to predict the radiative effect of cirrus, as well as their contribution to the total amount of ice mass that occurs in the Earth''s atmosphere. However, cirrus is composed of ice crystals that can take on a variety of geometrical shapes, from pristine habits such as hexagonal ice columns, hexagonal ice plates and bullet-rosettes, to highly randomized habits, which may have roughened surfaces and/or air cavities. These habits also aggregate together, to form chains of aggregates and compact aggregates. The sizes of these habits may also vary, from about less than 10μm, to several cm, with the smaller ice crystals usually existing toward cloud-top and the larger ice crystals existing toward the cloud-bottom. Due to this variability of geometrical complexity, size, and ice mass, predicting the magnitude of the cirrus greenhouse effect has proven problematic. To try to constrain these radiative and hydrological uncertainties, since about 2006 there is now available the A-train constellation of satellites, which attempt to quantify the radiative and hydrological contributions of cirrus to the Earth''s atmosphere. The A-train obtains nearly simultaneous measurements of cirrus from across the electromagnetic spectrum. Such simultaneous measurements pose challenges for theoretical scattering models of cirrus, as these models must conserve ice mass and be physically consistent across the electromagnetic spectrum. In this review paper, the microphysical properties of cirrus are summarized. The current idealized habit mixture models that have been proposed to represent the observed variability in ice crystal shape, size and mass are discussed. The theoretical light scattering methods that are currently applied to the idealized habit mixture models to solve for their scattering and absorption properties are discussed. The physical inconsistency of the current approach to parameterize the bulk scattering and absorption properties of cirrus in climate models is highlighted. An alternative parameterization, which couples cloud physics more directly with radiation, is proposed. Such a coupling is required, if climate models are to be physically consistent and radiatively interactive. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: In this paper, the variability of daily temperature in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) for the period 1958–2007 was investigated by selecting three typical temperature variables (daily minimum, mean and maximum temperatures) and the diurnal temperature range (DTR). Three variability patterns of daily mean temperature and two variability patterns of daily minimum and maximum temperatures were first classed, and then statistical properties of three temperature variables in 1958–1985 and 1986–2007 were analyzed. After that, temporal trends of three temperature variables and DTR were detected. Finally, the impacts of urbanization on the variability of daily temperature were investigated. Results indicate that: (1) daily mean temperature shows more complex variability than daily minimum and maximum temperatures; (2) in 1986–2007 three temperature variables have bigger mean values but smaller C v (coefficient of variance) values, and are more close to normal probability distribution; (3) three temperature variables show positive trends in 1986–2007, and the increase of daily mean temperature is more due to the increase of daily minimum temperature in the northern YRD but due to daily maximum temperature in the mid and southern YRD; (4) in the mid and southern YRD, daily maximum temperature has bigger increasing magnitude than daily minimum temperature in 1986–2007, causing positive trend of DTR; and (5) rapid urbanization causes normal distribution of three temperature variables, and notably increasing magnitude of daily temperature and DTR in 1986–2007 at the lower reaches of the Yangtze River and the Hangzhou Bay. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This invited review paper tends to summarise the results based on the variability of occurrence of temperature extremes in South America. The first thing to note is that there is a geographical imbalance with respect to the number of published studies on temperature extremes. Most of the results come from the southern part of South America, east of the Andes, and a few from the northern part of the continent and for the Altiplano. The workshop organised by the ETCCDMI in Brazil was the first time to have the opportunity to collect information in a regional way and present trends in extreme daily temperatures. A better geographical picture enhanced with more data show significant geographical trends in warm (positive) and cold (negative) nights over Southern South America and over the northern South America coast. All other studies based on smaller regions also agree in finding the most significant trends in the evolution of the minimum temperature, with positive trends in almost all studies on the occurrence of warm nights (or hot extremes of minimum temperature) and negative trend in the cold extremes of the minimum. On the other hand, there is little agreement on the variability of maximum temperature. Generally the maximum temperature in southern South America has decreased, in opposition to the case of northern South America where it has increased. Strong decadal and interannual variability have been found in the occurrence of cold extremes. Reanalysis and climate models underestimate the intensity of extremes, mainly near the Andes. The studies trying to understand the dynamics of the circulation that leads to the occurrence of these extremes are analysed from its occurrence in almost all scales from the synoptic, intraseasonal, seasonal, annual, and multi-year linear trend with different methodologies, also, indentifying the local and remote forcing. A gap was found in studies that relate some specific local forcing (like changes in land use) and compare it with the remote ones. Different aspects of the occurrence of the temperature extremes are still missing in some regions of the continent. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This paper presents results of four high resolution simulations of annual snowfall over Colorado, U.S.A. The results are verified using SNOTEL data. Sensitivity to model resolution is also explored. The results show that proper spatial and temporal depictions of snowfall adequate for water resource and climate change purposes can be achieved with the appropriate choice of model resolution and physical parameterizations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The observation and modeling of the indirect effects of aerosols on clouds remain an enormous challenge. Aerosols have a significant yet complicated impact on the precipitation processes. They can either enhance or suppress precipitation depending upon type of aerosol, seasonality, climate regime, cloud type or orographic profile of a region, particularly over populated areas. In order to observe and examine both cloud and precipitation processes, a combination of both satellite and ground-based remote sensing techniques can be employed. This paper presents the results from three years of data collection in Birmingham, United Kingdom. It describes and explains the application of a range of complimentary techniques: fluorescence spectrophotometry to examine dissolved organic carbon compounds in rainwater samples; satellite analysis tools are used to assess cloud-top microphysics; and an array of vertically-pointing micro-rain radars (MRRs) are used to assess variations in drop size distribution (DSD) for categorized events. Events are classified as microphysically ‘maritime’ or ‘continental’, showing that full development of the ice phase was reached at relatively warm temperatures for microphysically ‘maritime’ events, but at colder temperatures for microphysically ‘continental’ events. The importance of updrafts in severe thunderstorms and tornadic events is highlighted. High rainwater content of tyrosine-like substances (TYLIS) and tryptophan-like substances (TRYLIS) is found to be associated mainly with microphysically ‘maritime’ events, providing evidence for these substances acting as ice nuclei at relatively warm temperatures. High rainwater content of humic-like substances (HULIS) is associated with both microphysically ‘maritime’ and ‘continental’ events due to the complexity of such substances. As might be expected, continentally-sourced events had a similar structure to microphysically ‘continental’ events, whereas maritime-sourced events differed in their microphysical structure, indicating the local impacts on their microstructure. The DSD appears to vary between different events — for example, continentally-sourced, microphysically ‘continental’, convective events with low rainwater TRYLIS have a DSD containing fewer smaller droplets, whereas maritime-sourced, microphysically ‘maritime’, stratiform events with high TRYLIS had a DSD containing a greater number of smaller droplets. Satellite observations and vertically-pointing radars were found to be useful for analyzing clouds and precipitation since they provide a wealth of information to allow microphysical parameters to be investigated in detail. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: In spite of the unprecedented quantity and quality of meteorological data and numerical models, there is still no consensus about the atmosphere''s elementary statistical properties as functions of scale in either time or in space. This review paper proposes a new synthesis based on a) advances in the last 25years in nonlinear dynamics, b) a critical re-analysis of empirical aircraft and vertical sonde data, c) the systematic scale by scale, space–time exploitation of high resolution remotely sensed data and d) the systematic re-analysis of the outputs of numerical models of the atmosphere including reanalyses, e) a new turbulent model for the emergence of the climate from “weather” and climate variability. We conclude that Richardson''s old idea of scale by scale simplicity — today embodied in multiplicative cascades — can accurately explain the statistical properties of the atmosphere and its models over most of the meteorologically significant range of scales, as well as at least some of the climate range. The resulting space–time cascade model combines these nonlinear developments with modern statistical analyses, it is based on strongly anisotropic and intermittent generalizations of the classical turbulence laws of Kolmogorov, Corrsin, Obukhov, and Bolgiano. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: In this paper, characterization of cirrus clouds are made by using data from ground based polarization lidar and radiosonde measurements over Chung-Li (24.58°N, 121.10°E), Taiwan for a period of 1999–2006. During this period, the occurrence of cirrus clouds is about 37% of the total measurement nights over the lidar site. Analysis of the measurement gives the statistical characteristics about the macrophysical properties such as occurrence height, ambient temperature, and its geometrical thickness while the microphysical properties are interpreted in terms of extinction coefficient, optical depth, effective lidar ratio and depolarization ratio. The effective lidar ratio has been retrieved by using the simulation technique of backscattered lidar signals. The effect of multiple scattering has been taken into the account by a model calculation. Summer (Jun–Aug) shows the maximum appearances of cirrus due to its formation mechanism. It is shown that tropopause cirrus clouds may occur with a probability of about 24%. These clouds are usually optically thin and having laminar in structure with some cases resembling the characteristics similar to that of polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs). The radiative properties of the cirrus clouds are also discussed in detail by the empirical equations with results show a positive feedback on any climate change. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The paper discusses the frequency of precipitation, broken down into amount categories, on thunderstorm days in Poland during the period 1951–2000. The authors looked at the number of thunderstorm days with precipitation versus the total thunderstorm days. Frequencies of certain precipitation totals on thunderstorm days were determined for various Polish regions, as well as long-term and annual precipitation variabilities. Daily precipitation and thunderstorm observation records from 47 Polish weather stations were used in the study. Precipitation on thunderstorm days was broken down into the following categories: dry day or trace precipitation, 0.1–10.0 mm, 10.1–20.0 mm, 20.1–30.0 mm, and more than 30.0 mm. These categories were studied for variability in five thunderstorm regions in Poland. The study revealed at that precipitation occurred on most of the thunderstorm days in the second half of the 20th century in Poland (on average 85% of cases). On 63% of thunderstorm days there was between 0.1 and 10.0 mm of rain. Cases of more than 30.0 mm of precipitation were very rare (2.7%) and were recorded mostly in mountainous areas. Annual frequencies of the various precipitation categories were similar across all of the regions. There was more variability in the long-term view, but in most cases no clear trend could be established. Slight decrease in number of thunderstorm days without precipitation (statistically significant in regions II and III) and an increase in days with the lowest precipitation, 0.1–10.0 mm (statistically significant in region V) was stated. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Good performance of sewer systems is of paramount importance in modern cities. The last decades have shown an increase in the frequency of large storms, leading to flooding of urban areas, implying large direct and indirect costs to society. It is becoming necessary to assess to what extent changes in extreme rainfall will continue due to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and socio-economic development paths. Changes in rainfall are usually predicted using General Circulation Models. However, these models cannot be used directly to predict changes in extreme point rainfall because the temporal and spatial resolution is too coarse. This paper presents an approach to overcoming the scale problem by constructing a model of rainfall based on the Random Parameter Bartlett–Lewis rectangular pulse model in combination with a multi-scaling disaggregator. The model performs well and indicates that an increase of 2–15% in extreme rainfall can be expected in Denmark the next 80 years. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

This paper explored the projected changes in precipitation, maximum temperature (T max), and minimum temperature (T min) over the Yangtze River Basin (YRB) based on 23 Global climate models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6). The Empirical Quantile Mapping (EQM) approach was firstly applied to correct the biases in the GCMs. Next, the future changes were investigated by analyzing the multi-model ensemble (MME) of the bias-corrected dataset during 2025–2044 (near-term), 2045–2064 (mid-term), and 2081–2100 (long-term) periods, with reference to the baseline period 1995–2014, under three integrated scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5) of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Results show that: (1) the biases in CMIP6 GCMs can be effectively corrected by EQM, and the MME performs better than individual models for each climatic variable. (2) Precipitation over the YRB from 2025 to 2100 is projected to increase at the rate of 9.66 mm/decade, 13.45 mm/decade, and 21.01 mm/decade under SSP1‐2.6, SSP2‐4.5, and SSP5‐8.5, respectively. In the long-term, the annual precipitation is projected to increase by 10.41%, 10.66% and 15.80%, under SSP1‐2.6, SSP2‐4.5 and SSP5‐8.5, respectively. (3) T max (T min) over the YRB is projected to increase by 0.09 (0.07) °C/decade, 0.29 (0.27) °C/decade, and 0.66 (0.64) °C/decade under SSP1‐2.6, SSP2‐4.5, and SSP5‐8.5, respectively. In the long-term, T max (T min) averaged over the YRB is projected to increase by 1.75 (1.50) °C, 2.72 (2.54) °C and 5.04 (4.85) °C under SSP1‐2.6, SSP2‐4.5 and SSP5‐8.5, respectively. (4) Uncertainties in the projected precipitation and temperature over the YRB were reduced based on MME. But further researches, such as selecting the superior models with respect to the regional climate of the YRB from the CMIP6 and using the ensemble methods that assign weight based on the performance of each model, are still needed to provide more reliable climate projections. • Projected changes were explored by 23 CMIP6 GCMs under the three SSP-RCP scenarios. • Biases in the GCMs were corrected by Empirical Quantile Mapping (EQM) method. • Multi-model ensemble (MME) was used to reduce the uncertainties. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCSs) over the southern Arabian Peninsula are more common during the spring months of March and April. In this paper, the processes behind such severe convective events and their local-scale impacts are investigated using reanalysis data, satellite-derived and observational products. The analysis of 95 MCS events from 2000 to 2020 revealed that they are triggered by low-level wind convergence and moisture advection from the Arabian Sea, Arabian Gulf and/or Red Sea. An equatorward displacement and strengthening of the subtropical jet also precondition the environment, as does the presence of a mid-level trough. The latter is generally part of a large-scale pattern of anomalies that are equivalent barotropic in nature, and therefore likely a response to tropical or subtropical forcing. At more local-scale, a drying of the mid-troposphere between 850 and 250 hPa typically by 50%, a reduction of the upper-level winds by about 5 m s−1, and an increase in the upper-tropospheric temperature on average by 2–3 K, are typically observed during MCS events. Over the 21-year period, a statistically significant increase in the MCSs' duration over southeast Arabian Peninsula has been found, suggesting that such extreme events may be even more impactful in a warming world. • MCSs over the southern Arabian Peninsula occur more frequently in March and April months. • Preconditioning and triggering processes for MCSs over this region are investigated. • Over the 20-year period, MCSs have been lasting longer over the UAE. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: This paper reports the results of the analysis of annual mean temperature and precipitation series from 171 meteorological stations distributed over Castile and Leon [Castilla y León in Spanish] in Spain on monthly, seasonal and annual time-scales for a 37-year study period (1961–1997). Various statistical tools were used to detect and characterize significant changes in these series. The magnitude of the trends was derived from the slopes of the regression lines using the least squares method, and the statistical significance was determined by means of nonparametric tests. Positive trends of about 0.33 °C in the annual mean temperature were found for the whole period. Mean temperatures increased in spring and winter, the winter trend being statistically significant. The months of December and March also showed significant trends. Decreases in rainfall were found for three seasons (winter, spring and autumn), with statistically significant trends in March. Summer precipitation showed slight increases over the 37-year period. On this basis, the authors consider that the increase in summer precipitation and the decrease in the range of average temperatures between the warmest and the coldest months of the year (continentality), point towards a trend to a more oceanic climate in Castile and Leon. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

This paper aims to analyse the distribution and temporal evolution of convective precipitation in the Mediterranean region of Spain. To accomplish this goal, we used 148 sets of 5-min rainfall rate data from the 1989–2015 period. The selected regions were the Júcar Hydrographic Confederation (CHJ) and the Internal Basins of Catalonia (CIC), which cover most of the autonomous communities of Catalonia and the Valencian Community (east Spain). The average 5-min intensity threshold of 35 mm/h and the β parameter, defined as the ratio between convective precipitation versus total precipitation in any period, were used to characterise convective precipitation. Convective episodes were categorised as "very convective", "moderately convective", and "slightly convective" based on the β value. After quality control, the series of 129 stations were clustered into homogeneous precipitation zones that also include β as one of the variables of characterisation. The results show that convective precipitation can contribute to total annual precipitation by up to 16% on average, but it is generated by a very small percentage of convective events (between 3% and 6% across all the stations) in comparison with the total number of rainfall episodes. In this sense, moderately convective events are the most common, with a predominantly unimodal monthly distribution of β, with summer the most convective season. Trends show a significant increase in precipitation, convective precipitation, and convective episodes in the CHJ. On the other hand, a positive trend of convective events is predominant in the CIC region, despite an overall precipitation decrease in the analysed period. These results are relevant given that extreme daily rainfall does not show a positive or significant trend, and they are in line with the impact of climate change on increased atmospheric instability and water vapour in the atmosphere. They highlight the need to work with sub-daily precipitation series in the case of the Mediterranean, which is mainly affected by flash floods. • The contribution of convective precipitation in the East of Spain exceeds 10% annually and can reach 100% in late summer. • Convective precipitation is caused by less than 5% of annual rain episodes that are associated to heavy rains. • Orography (height, orientation, and distance to the sea) plays the major role in triggering convective precipitation. • There is a predominant increase of convective precipitation resulting from a strengthening of thermodynamic conditions. • SST has increased 0,3ºC more than air temperature in the Mediterranean region that results in increasing potential instability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]