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In this paper, future drought characteristics (frequency, duration and intensity) over China are analysed by using four climate models from CMIP6 under the seven SSP-RCP (shared socioeconomic pathway-representative concentration pathway) scenarios (SSP119, SSP126, SSP434, SSP245, SSP460, SSP370, and SSP585) for three defined periods of 2021–2040 (near-term), 2041–2060 (mid-term) and 2081–2100 (long-term). The corresponding four climate models output from CMIP5 are also used to conduct a comparison analysis between CMIP5 and CMIP6 to address the improvements added to CMIP6 in terms of drought identification. The drought characteristics are identified by applying the standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index (SPEI) at a 12-month timescale and run theory. The results show that CMIP6 has a robust capability to capture historical (1986–2005) drought characteristics. For the future period of 2021–2040, the decrease in precipitation and increase in potential evapotranspiration will lead to continuous dry conditions in the upper and middle Yangtze River basin and eastern Pearl River basin. Relative to the reference period, drought events will be more frequent and severe with longer durations in the Northwest River basins and middle Yangtze River basin. Furthermore, higher emissions signify a greater increase in drought frequency and intensity in the long-term period. Except for the SSP585 scenario, the lower emission scenario corresponds to the higher drought duration soon and in the mid-21st century (2021–2060). This finding is regarded as a "strange phenomenon", which cannot be detected by the previous CMIP5-based emission scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and the unlikely pathway RCP8.5). Therefore, additional "possible future"-based scenarios (SSP119, SSP126, SSP434, SSP245, SSP460, and SSP370) should be included in extreme climate studies, especially for the near future and mid-21st century. Notably, compared with CMIP5, the reduced biases in drought characteristics are more likely associated with improvements in the representation of physical processes in climate models from CMIP6. The results of this study could provide a basis for the development of drought adaptation measures over China. • Latest CMIP6 climate models and seven SSP-RCP scenarios are used to analyze the possible changes in droughts over China. • More robust projections will be presented by CMIP6 than CMIP5, due to the better representations in physical processes. • The higher emission signifies shorter drought duration, lower precipitation and PET in mid-21st century over China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using the online-coupled Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System coupled with the Chinese Unified Atmospheric Chemistry Environment (GRAPES_CUACE) model, numerical experiments are conducted to compare the impacts of three planetary boundary layer (PBL) schemes—Medium Range Forecast (MRF), Yonsei University (YSU), and Mellor-Yamada-Janjic (MYJ)—on PM 2.5 simulations and their responses to aerosol-radiation feedback (ARF), under different terrain and weather conditions. The baseline experiments without ARF with all three PBL schemes can reproduce the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of surface PM 2.5 on the whole and show that the model can capture the PM 2.5 variation better in unstable conditions (clean days) than in stable conditions (pollution days). The three PBL schemes show differences in the simulations of meteorological factors, e.g., the MRF scheme produces the best 10-m wind speed, the MYJ scheme produces the best 2-m temperature, and the YSU scheme produces the lowest PBL height (PBLH) and vertical diffusivity. Consequently, there is no significant difference among the three PBL schemes in surface PM 2.5 simulations due to the combined action of the surface and the PBL structure. However, all the baseline experiments massively underestimate PM 2.5 during severe pollution days. The online computing of ARF in the three PBL schemes can substantially improve the underestimation of PM 2.5 by reducing sensible heat fluxes, 2-m temperature, friction velocity, and the PBL height. More importantly, the response intensity of three PBL schemes to ARF is very different. For PM 2.5 simulations, MYJ has the weakest response, whereas MRF and YSU have similar responses. During the heavy pollution days with more intense aerosol-radiation effect, the increase of PM 2.5 induced by ARF in MRF and YSU is about twice that in MYJ, making the PM 2.5 simulated by MRF and YSU more consistent with the observations. This result shows the ARF dependence on the PBL processes and suggests the importance of PBL-ARF interaction to the PM 2.5 numerical prediction during haze episodes. • The variation of PM 2.5 is affected by the interaction between land surface and atmospheric boundary layer. • Aerosol-radiation feedback substantially improves the underestimation of PM 2.5 during heavy haze pollution. • Aerosol-radiation feedback strongly depends on the boundary layer processes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Droughts reflect the extent of water deficit on the land surface, and can be quantified by various indices. In current study, potential evapotranspiration (PET), which is one of factors that have great influence on the drought condition, is estimated by a set of models. The set consists of four temperature-decisive models (Hamon, Hargreaves-Samani, Oudin, Thornthwaite), two radiation-decisive models (Energy-Only and Priestley-Taylor) and two synthesis models (Penman and Penman-Monteith). Subsequently, Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) is applied to assess the spatial and temporal distributions of droughts for the arid, the semi-arid and semi-humid, as well as the humid climatic zones in China for 1961–2017. The results show that: (1) Taking China as a whole, annual PET estimated by Penman-Monteith (P-M) formula is about 1000 mm, which is in the middle of the range of results from eight algorithms. Annual PET values estimated by radiation-decisive methods are relatively close to those obtained by P-M, while temperature-decisive methods yield lower values and the largest disparity among the different PET models can be up to 2.5 fold. (2) Comparing to drought records, both P-M and Thornthwaite are suitable for assessing drought condition on the national scale, but the drought assessed by the Thornthwaite method is worse than that by the P-M method in 1990–2017 when warming is faster than before in the arid region. (3) Increase first and then decrease of values of the SPEI index are detected in China for 1961–2017 by all PET estimations. Averaged over entire China, the wetting trend has changed to drying in the early 1990s by P-M-based SPEI. More meteorological stations are found to experience droughts after the early 1990s, particularly in the western humid region and the central semi-arid and semi-humid region. In contrast, a wetness tendency is found in the arid region. (4) Patterns of the drought frequency and duration by all PET algorithms maintain relatively good correspondence in the semi-arid and semi-humid region as well as the humid region. But in the arid region, drought frequency obtained by P-M is lower than for radiation-decisive and temperature-decisive models, while drought duration is longer. • Eight algorithms clustered into three groups are used to estimate potential evapotranspiration (PET) for China in 1961–2017. • A wetness trend is detected by synthesis and radiation-decisive models based SPEI, while getting drier by temperature-decisive models in the arid region. • A case study in China shows that choice of potential evapotranspiration formulas influences largely on drought assessment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]