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Asia has attracted research attention because it has the highest anthropogenic emissions in the world, and the Model Inter-Comparison Study for Asia (MICS-Asia) phase III was carried out to foster our understanding of the status of air quality over Asia. This study analyzed wet deposition in southeast Asian countries (Myanmar, Thailand, Lao People's Democratic Republic (PDR), Cambodia, Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, and Indonesia) with the aim of providing insights into the seasonal variation of wet deposition. Southeast Asia was not fully considered in MICS-Asia phase II due to a lack of observational data; however, the analysis period of MICS-Asia III, namely the year 2010, is covered by ground observations of the Acid Deposition Monitoring Network in East Asia (EANET), and the coordinated simulation domain was extended to cover these observation sites. The analyzed species are wet depositions of S (sulfate aerosol, sulfur dioxide (SO2), and sulfuric acid (H2SO4)), N (nitrate aerosol, nitrogen monoxide (NO), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), and nitric acid (HNO3)), and A (ammonium aerosol and ammonia (NH3)). The wet deposition simulated with seven models driven by a unified meteorological model in MICS-Asia III was used with the ensemble approach, which effectively modulates the differences in performance among models. By comparison with EANET observations, although the seven models generally captured the wet depositions of S, N, and A, there were difficulties capturing these in some cases. Considering the model performance for ambient aerosol concentrations over southeast Asia, this failure of models is considered to be related to the difficulty in capturing the precipitation in southeast Asia, especially during the dry and wet seasons. Generally, meteorological fields overestimate the precipitation during the dry season, which leads to the overestimation of wet deposition during this season. To overcome this, a precipitation-adjusted approach that scaled the modeled precipitation to the observed value was applied, and it was demonstrated that the model performance was improved. Satellite measurements were also used to adjust for precipitation data, which adequately accounted for the spatiotemporal precipitation patterns, especially in the dry season. As the statistical scores were mostly improved by this adjustment, the estimation of wet deposition with precipitation adjustment was considered to be superior. To utilize satellite measurements, the spatial distribution of wet deposition was revised. Based on this revision, it was found that Vietnam, Malaysia, and Indonesia were upward corrected, and Myanmar, Thailand, Lao PDR, Cambodia, and the Philippines were downward-corrected; these corrections were up to ±40 %. The improved accuracy of precipitation amount was key to estimating wet deposition in this study. These results suggest that the precipitation-adjusted approach has the potential to obtain accurate estimates of wet deposition through the fusion of models and observations.

Source sensitivity and source apportionment are two major indicators representing source–receptor relationships, which serve as essential information when considering effective strategies to accomplish improved air quality. This study evaluated source sensitivities and apportionments of ambient ozone and PM2.5 concentrations over Japan with multiple numerical techniques embedded in regional chemical transport models, including a brute-force method (BFM), a high-order decoupled direct method (HDDM), and an integrated source apportionment method (ISAM), to update the source–receptor relationships considering stringent emission controls recently implemented in Japan and surrounding countries. We also attempted to understand the differences among source sensitivities and source apportionments calculated by multiple techniques. While a part of ozone concentrations was apportioned to domestic sources, their sensitivities were small or even negative; ozone concentrations were exclusively sensitive to transport from outside Japan. Although the simulated PM2.5 concentrations were significantly lower than those reported by previous studies, their sensitivity to transport from outside Japan was still relatively large, implying that there has been a reduction in Japanese emissions, similar to surrounding countries including China, due to implementation of stringent emission controls. HDDM allowed us to understand the importance of the non-linear responses of PM2.5 concentrations to precursor emissions. Apportionments derived by ISAM were useful in distinguishing various direct and indirect influences on ozone and PM2.5 concentrations by combining with sensitivities. The results indicate that ozone transported from outside Japan plays a key role in exerting various indirect influences on the formation of ozone and secondary PM2.5 components. While the sensitivities come closer to the apportionments when perturbations in emissions are larger in highly non-linear relationships – including those between NH3 emissions and NH4+ concentrations, NOx emissions and NO3- concentrations, and NOx emissions and ozone concentrations – the sensitivities did not reach the apportionments because there were various indirect influences including other sectors, complex photochemical reactions, and gas–aerosol partitioning. It is essential to consider non-linear influences to derive strategies for effectively suppressing concentrations of secondary pollutants.

Atmospheric nitrogen deposition in China has attracted public attention in recent years due to the increasing anthropogenic emission of reactive nitrogen (Nr) and its impacts on the terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. However, limited long-term and multisite measurements have restrained the understanding of the mechanism of the Nr deposition and the chemical transport model (CTM) improvement. In this study, the performance of the simulated wet and dry deposition for different Nr species, i.e., particulate NO3- and NH4+, gaseous NOx, HNO3 and NH3 have been conducted using the framework of Model Inter-Comparison Study for Asia (MICS-Asia) phase III. A total of nine models, including five Weather Research and Forecasting models coupled with the Community Multiscale Air Quality (WRF-CMAQ) models, two self-developed regional models, a global model and a Regional Atmospheric Modeling System coupled with the Community Multiscale Air Quality (RAMS-CMAQ) model have been selected for the comparison. For wet deposition, observation data from 83 measurement sites from the East Asia Acid Deposition Monitoring Network (EANET), Chinese Ecosystem Research Network (CERN), China Agricultural University Deposition Network (CAUDN), National Acid Deposition Monitoring Network (NADMN) and Department of Ecological Environment (DEE) of China have been collected and normalized for comparison with model results. In general, most models show the consistent spatial and temporal variation of both oxidized N (Nox) and reduced N (Nrd) wet deposition in China, with the normalized mean error (NME) at around 50 %, which is lower than the value of 70 % based on EANET observation over Asia. Both the ratio of wet or dry deposition to the total inorganic N (TIN) deposition and the ratios of TIN to their emissions have shown consistent results with the Nationwide Nitrogen Deposition Monitoring Network (NNDMN) estimates. The performance of ensemble results (ENMs) was further assessed with satellite measurements. In different regions of China, the results show that the simulated Nox wet deposition was overestimated in northeastern China (NE) but underestimated in the south of China, namely southeastern (SE) and southwestern (SW) China, while the Nrd wet deposition was underestimated in all regions by all models. The deposition of Nox has larger uncertainties than the Nrd, especially in northern China (NC), indicating the chemical reaction process is one of the most important factors affecting the model performance. Compared to the critical load (CL) value, the Nr deposition in NC, SE and SW reached or exceeded reported CL values and resulted in serious ecological impacts. The control of Nrd in NC and SW and Nox in SE would be an effective mitigation measure for TIN deposition in these regions. The Nr deposition in the Tibetan Plateau (TP) with a high ratio of TIN ∕ emission (∼3.0), indicates a significant transmission from outside. Efforts to reduce these transmissions ought to be paramount due the climatic importance of the Tibetan region to the sensitive ecosystems throughout China.

This study compares the performance of 12 regional chemical transport models (CTMs) from the third phase of the Model Inter-Comparison Study for Asia (MICS-Asia III) on simulating the particulate matter (PM) over East Asia (EA) in 2010. The participating models include the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Community Multiscale Air Quality (WRF-CMAQ; v4.7.1 and v5.0.2), the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System coupled with CMAQ (RAMS-CMAQ; v4.7.1 and v5.0.2), the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with chemistry (WRF-Chem; v3.6.1 and v3.7.1), Goddard Earth Observing System coupled with chemistry (GEOS-Chem), a non-hydrostatic model coupled with chemistry (NHM-Chem), the Nested Air Quality Prediction Modeling System (NAQPMS) and the NASA-Unified WRF (NU-WRF). This study investigates three model processes as the possible reasons for different model performances on PM. (1) Models perform very differently in the gas–particle conversion of sulfur (S) and oxidized nitrogen (N). The model differences in sulfur oxidation ratio (50 %) are of the same magnitude as that in SO42- concentrations. The gas–particle conversion is one of the main reasons for different model performances on fine mode PM. (2) Models without dust emission modules can perform well on PM10 at non-dust-affected sites but largely underestimate (up to 50 %) the PM10 concentrations at dust sites. The implementation of dust emission modules in the models has largely improved the model accuracies at dust sites (reduce model bias to −20 %). However, both the magnitude and distribution of dust pollution are not fully captured. (3) The amounts of modeled depositions vary among models by 75 %, 39 %, 21 % and 38 % for S wet, S dry, N wet and N dry depositions, respectively. Large inter-model differences are found in the washout ratios of wet deposition (at most 170 % in India) and dry deposition velocities (generally 0.3–2 cm s−1 differences over inland regions).

A long-term, robust observational record of atmospheric black carbon (BC) concentrations at Fukue Island for 2009–2019 was produced by unifying the data from a continuous soot monitoring system (COSMOS) and a Multi-Angle Absorption Photometer (MAAP). This record was then used to analyze emission trends from China. We identified a rapid reduction in BC concentrations of (-5.8±1.5) % yr−1 or −48 % from 2010 to 2018. We concluded that an emission change of (-5.3±0.7) % yr−1, related to changes in China of as much as −4.6 % yr−1, was the main underlying driver. This evaluation was made after correcting for the interannual meteorological variability (IAV) by using the regional atmospheric chemistry model simulations from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) and Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) models (collectively WRF/CMAQ) with the constant emissions. This resolves the current fundamental disagreements about the sign of the BC emissions trend from China over the past decade as assessed from bottom-up emission inventories. Our analysis supports inventories reflecting the governmental clean air actions after 2010 (e.g., MEIC1.3, ECLIPSE versions 5a and 6b, and the Regional Emission inventory in ASia (REAS) version 3.1) and recommends revisions to those that do not (e.g., Community Emissions Data System – CEDS). Our estimated emission trends were fairly uniform across seasons but diverse among air mass origins. Stronger BC reductions, accompanied by a reduction in carbon monoxide (CO) emissions, occurred in regions of south-central East China, while weaker BC reductions occurred in north-central East China and northeastern China. Prior to 2017, the BC and CO emissions trends were both unexpectedly positive in northeastern China during winter months, which possibly influenced the climate at higher latitudes. The pace of the estimated emissions reduction over China surpasses the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs with reference to SSP1, specifically) scenarios for 2015–2030, which suggests highly successful emission control policies. At Fukue Island, the BC fraction of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) also steadily decreased over the last decade. This suggests that reductions in BC emissions started without significant delay when compared to other pollutants such as NOx and SO2, which are among the key precursors of scattering PM2.5.

The Model Inter-Comparison Study for Asia (MICS-Asia) phase III was conducted to promote understanding of regional air quality and climate change in Asia, which have received growing attention due to the huge amount of anthropogenic emissions worldwide. This study provides an overview of acid deposition. Specifically, dry and wet deposition of the following species was analyzed: S (sulfate aerosol, sulfur dioxide (SO2), and sulfuric acid (H2SO4)), N (nitrate aerosol, nitrogen monoxide (NO), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), and nitric acid (HNO3)), and A (ammonium aerosol and ammonia (NH3)). The wet deposition simulated by a total of nine models was analyzed and evaluated using ground observation data from the Acid Deposition Monitoring Network in East Asia (EANET). In the phase III study, the number of observation sites was increased from 37 in the phase II study to 54, and southeast Asian countries were newly added. Additionally, whereas the analysis period was limited to representative months of each season in MICS-Asia phase II, the phase III study analyzed the full year of 2010. The scope of this overview mainly focuses on the annual accumulated deposition. In general, models can capture the observed wet deposition over Asia but underestimate the wet deposition of S and A, and show large differences in the wet deposition of N. Furthermore, the ratio of wet deposition to the total deposition (the sum of dry and wet deposition) was investigated in order to understand the role of important processes in the total deposition. The general dominance of wet deposition over Asia and attributions from dry deposition over land were consistently found in all models. Then, total deposition maps over 13 countries participating in EANET were produced, and the balance between deposition and anthropogenic emissions was calculated. Excesses of deposition, rather than of anthropogenic emissions, were found over Japan, northern Asia, and southeast Asia, indicating the possibility of long-range transport within and outside of Asia, as well as other emission sources. To improve the ability of models to capture the observed wet deposition, two approaches were attempted, namely, ensemble and precipitation adjustment. The ensemble approach was effective at modulating the differences in performance among models, and the precipitation-adjusted approach demonstrated that the model performance for precipitation played a key role in better simulating wet deposition. Finally, the lessons learned from the phase III study and future perspectives for phase IV are summarized.

Despite the significant progress in improving chemical transport models (CTMs), applications of these modeling endeavors are still subject to large and complex model uncertainty. The Model Inter-Comparison Study for Asia III (MICS-Asia III) has provided the opportunity to assess the capability and uncertainty of current CTMs in East Asian applications. In this study, we have evaluated the multi-model simulations of nitrogen dioxide (NO2), carbon monoxide (CO) and ammonia (NH3) over China under the framework of MICS-Asia III. A total of 13 modeling results, provided by several independent groups from different countries and regions, were used in this study. Most of these models used the same modeling domain with a horizontal resolution of 45 km and were driven by common emission inventories and meteorological inputs. New observations over the North China Plain (NCP) and Pearl River Delta (PRD) regions were also available in MICS-Asia III, allowing the model evaluations over highly industrialized regions. The evaluation results show that most models captured the monthly and spatial patterns of NO2 concentrations in the NCP region well, though NO2 levels were slightly underestimated. Relatively poor performance in NO2 simulations was found in the PRD region, with larger root-mean-square error and lower spatial correlation coefficients, which may be related to the coarse resolution or inappropriate spatial allocations of the emission inventories in the PRD region. All models significantly underpredicted CO concentrations in both the NCP and PRD regions, with annual mean concentrations that were 65.4 % and 61.4 % underestimated by the ensemble mean. Such large underestimations suggest that CO emissions might be underestimated in the current emission inventory. In contrast to the good skills for simulating the monthly variations in NO2 and CO concentrations, all models failed to reproduce the observed monthly variations in NH3 concentrations in the NCP region. Most models mismatched the observed peak in July and showed negative correlation coefficients with the observations, which may be closely related to the uncertainty in the monthly variations in NH3 emissions and the NH3 gas–aerosol partitioning. Finally, model intercomparisons have been conducted to quantify the impacts of model uncertainty on the simulations of these gases, which are shown to increase with the reactivity of species. Models contained more uncertainty in the NH3 simulations. This suggests that for some highly active and/or short-lived primary pollutants, like NH3, model uncertainty can also take a great part in the forecast uncertainty in addition to the emission uncertainty. Based on these results, some recommendations are made for future studies.

Spatiotemporal variations of ozone (O3) and nitrogen oxide (NOx) mixing ratios from 14 state-of-the-art chemical transport models (CTMs) are intercompared and evaluated with O3 observations in East Asia, within the framework of the Model Inter-Comparison Study for Asia Phase III (MICS-Asia III). This study was designed to evaluate the capabilities and uncertainties of current CTMs simulations for Asia and to provide multi-model estimates of pollutant distributions. These models were run by 14 independent groups working in China, Japan, South Korea, the United States and other countries/regions. Compared with the previous phase of MICS-Asia (MICS-Asia II), the evaluation with observations was extended from 4 months to 1 full year across China and the western Pacific Rim. In general, model performance levels for O3 varied widely by region and season. Most models captured the key patterns of monthly and diurnal variation of surface O3 and its precursors in the North China Plain and western Pacific Rim but failed to do so for the Pearl River Delta. A significant overestimation of surface O3 was evident from May to September/October and from January to May over the North China Plain, the western Pacific Rim and the Pearl River Delta. Comparisons drawn from observations show that the considerable diversity in O3 photochemical production partly contributed to this overestimation and to high levels of inter-model variability in O3 for North China. In terms of O3 soundings, the ensemble average of models reproduced the vertical structure for the western Pacific, but overestimated O3 levels to below 800 hPa in the summer. In the industrialized Pearl River Delta, the ensemble average presented an overestimation for the lower troposphere and an underestimation for the middle troposphere. The ensemble average of 13 models for O3 did not always exhibit superior performance compared with certain individual models in contrast with its superior value for Europe. This finding suggests that the spread of ensemble-model values does not represent all of the uncertainties of O3 or that most MICS-Asia III models missed key processes. This study improved the performance of modeling O3 in March at Japanese sites compared with MICS-Asia II. However, it overpredicted surface O3 concentrations for western Japan in July, which was not found by MICS-Asia II. Major challenges still remain with regard to identifying the sources of bias in surface O3 over East Asia in CTMs.

A total of 14 chemical transport models (CTMs) participated in the first topic of the Model Inter-Comparison Study for Asia (MICS-Asia) phase III. These model results are compared with each other and an extensive set of measurements, aiming to evaluate the current CTMs' ability in simulating aerosol concentrations, to document the similarities and differences among model performance, and to reveal the characteristics of aerosol components in large cities over East Asia. In general, these CTMs can well reproduce the spatial–temporal distributions of aerosols in East Asia during the year 2010. The multi-model ensemble mean (MMEM) shows better performance than most single-model predictions, with correlation coefficients (between MMEM and measurements) ranging from 0.65 (nitrate, NO3-) to 0.83 (PM2.5). The concentrations of black carbon (BC), sulfate (SO42-), and PM10 are underestimated by MMEM, with normalized mean biases (NMBs) of −17.0 %, −19.1 %, and −32.6 %, respectively. Positive biases are simulated for NO3- (NMB = 4.9 %), ammonium (NH4+) (NMB = 14.0 %), and PM2.5 (NMB = 4.4 %). In comparison with the statistics calculated from MICS-Asia phase II, frequent updates of chemical mechanisms in CTMs during recent years make the intermodel variability of simulated aerosol concentrations smaller, and better performance can be found in reproducing the temporal variations of observations. However, a large variation (about a factor of 2) in the ratios of SNA (sulfate, nitrate, and ammonium) to PM2.5 is calculated among participant models. A more intense secondary formation of SO42- is simulated by Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) models, because of the higher SOR (sulfur oxidation ratio) than other models (0.51 versus 0.39). The NOR (nitric oxidation ratio) calculated by all CTMs has larger values (∼0.20) than the observations, indicating that overmuch NO3- is simulated by current models. NH3-limited condition (the mole ratio of ammonium to sulfate and nitrate is smaller than 1) can be successfully reproduced by all participant models, which indicates that a small reduction in ammonia may improve the air quality. A large coefficient of variation (CV > 1.0) is calculated for simulated coarse particles, especially over arid and semi-arid regions, which means that current CTMs have difficulty producing similar dust emissions by using different dust schemes. According to the simulation results of MMEM in six large Asian cities, different air-pollution control plans should be taken due to their different major air pollutants in different seasons. The MICS-Asia project gives an opportunity to discuss the similarities and differences of simulation results among CTMs in East Asian applications. In order to acquire a better understanding of aerosol properties and their impacts, more experiments should be designed to reduce the diversities among air quality models.

We conducted an intensive field campaign at the summit of Mt. Tai (36.26° N, 117.11° E, 1534 m above sea level), Shandong Province, located at the center of central East China, during the period 28 May to 30 June 2006, to study seasonal maxima of regional air pollution with respect to ozone (O3) and aerosols. The specific objectives, campaign design, and major findings are summarized. High concentrations of O3 and its precursors, and aerosols, were detected and studied in the context of annual variations. Most importantly, we identified that emissions from regional-scale open crop residue burning after the harvesting of winter wheat, together with photochemical aging, strongly increased the concentrations of O3, aerosols, and primary pollutants in this month of year. Studies of in situ photochemical activity, regional source attribution of O3, O3–aerosol interactions, validation of satellite observations of tropospheric NO2, behaviors of volatile organic compounds and organic/inorganic aerosol species, loss rates of black carbon (BC), and instrument inter-comparisons are also summarized. The observed BC levels must have a strong impact on the regional climate.

The impact of open crop residual burning (OCRB) on O3, CO, black carbon (BC) and organic carbon (OC) concentrations over Central Eastern China (CEC; 30–40° N, 111–120° E), during the Mount Tai Experiment in 2006 (MTX2006) was evaluated using a regional chemical transport model, the Models–3 Community Multiscale Air Quality Modeling System (CMAQ). To investigate these pollutants during MTX2006 in June 2006, daily gridded OCRB emissions were developed based on a bottom-up methodology using land cover and hotspot information from satellites. This model system involving daily emissions captured monthly–averages of observed concentrations and day-to-day variations in the patterns of O3, CO, BC and OC at the summit of Mount Tai (36° N, 117° E, 1534 m a.s.l., Shandong Province of the People's Republic of China) with high correlation coefficients between the model and observations ranging from 0.55 to 0.69. These results were significantly improved from those using annual biomass burning emissions. For monthly-averaged O3, the simulated concentration of 80.8 ppbv was close to the observed concentration (81.3 ppbv). The MTX2006 period was roughly divided into two parts: 1) polluted days with heavy OCRB in the first half of June; and 2) cleaner days with negligible field burning in the latter half of June. Additionally, the first half of June was characterized by two high-pollution episodes during 5–7 and 12–13 June, separated by a relatively cleaner intermediate period during 8–10 June. In the first high-pollution episode, the model captured the high O3, CO, BC and OC concentrations at the summit of Mount Tai, which were associated with OCRB over southern CEC and subsequent northward transport. For this episode, the impacts of OCRB emissions on pollutant concentrations were 26% (O3), 62% (CO), 79% (BC) and 80% (OC) at the summit of Mount Tai. The daily OCRB emissions were an essential factor in the evaluation of these pollutants during MTX2006. These emissions have a large impact not only on primary pollutants but also on secondary pollutants, such as O3, in the first half of June over northeastern Asia. The model reproduced reasonably well the variation of these pollutants in MTX2006, but underestimated daily averages of both CO and BC by a factor of 2, when using emission data from almost solely anthropogenic fuel sources in the latter half of the observation period when field burning can be neglected.

A 3-D regional chemical transport model, the Nested Air Quality Prediction Model System (NAQPMS), with an on-line tracer tagging module was used to study the source of the near-ground (3 over CEC. The regional-scale transport of pollutants also played an important role in the spatial and temporal distribution of ozone over CEC. Chemically produced ozone from the southern part of the study region can be transported northeastwardly to the northern rim of CEC; the mean contribution was 5–10 ppbv, and it reached 25 ppbv during high ozone events. Studies of the outflow of CEC ozone and its precursors, as well as their influences and contributions to the ozone level over adjacent regions/countries, revealed that the contribution of CEC ozone to mean ozone mixing ratios over the Korean Peninsula and Japan was 5–15 ppbv, of which about half was due to the direct transport of ozone from CEC and half was produced locally by ozone precursors transported from CEC.

We developed a new emission inventory for Asia (Regional Emission inventory in ASia (REAS) Version 1.1) for the period 1980–2020. REAS is the first inventory to integrate historical, present, and future emissions in Asia on the basis of a consistent methodology. We present here emissions in 2000, historical emissions for 1980–2003, and projected emissions for 2010 and 2020 of SO2, NOx, CO, NMVOC, black carbon (BC), and organic carbon (OC) from fuel combustion and industrial sources. Total energy consumption in Asia more than doubled between 1980 and 2003, causing a rapid growth in Asian emissions, by 28% for BC, 30% for OC, 64% for CO, 108% for NMVOC, 119% for SO2, and 176% for NOx. In particular, Chinese NOx emissions showed a marked increase of 280% over 1980 levels, and growth in emissions since 2000 has been extremely high. These increases in China were mainly caused by increases in coal combustion in the power plants and industrial sectors. NMVOC emissions also rapidly increased because of growth in the use of automobiles, solvents, and paints. By contrast, BC, OC, and CO emissions in China showed decreasing trends from 1996 to 2000 because of a reduction in the use of biofuels and coal in the domestic and industry sectors. However, since 2000, Chinese emissions of these species have begun to increase. Thus, the emissions of air pollutants in Asian countries (especially China) showed large temporal variations from 1980–2003. Future emissions in 2010 and 2020 in Asian countries were projected by emission scenarios and from emissions in 2000. For China, we developed three emission scenarios: PSC (policy success case), REF (reference case), and PFC (policy failure case). In the 2020 REF scenario, Asian total emissions of SO2, NOx, and NMVOC were projected to increase substantially by 22%, 44%, and 99%, respectively, over 2000 levels. The 2020 REF scenario showed a modest increase in CO (12%), a lesser increase in BC (1%), and a slight decrease in OC (−5%) compared with 2000 levels. However, it should be noted that Asian total emissions are strongly influenced by the emission scenarios for China.

Systematic analyses of interannual and seasonal variations of tropospheric NO2 vertical column densities (VCDs) based on GOME satellite data and the regional scale chemical transport model (CTM), Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ), are presented for the atmosphere over eastern Asia between 1996 and June 2003. A newly developed year-by-year emission inventory (REAS) was used in CMAQ. The horizontal distribution of annual averaged GOME NO2 VCDs generally agrees well with the CMAQ results. However, CMAQ/REAS results underestimate the GOME retrievals with factors of 2–4 over polluted industrial regions such as Central East China (CEC), a major part of Korea, Hong Kong, and central and western Japan. The most probable reasons for the underestimation typically over the CEC are accuracy of the basic energy statistic data, emission factors, and socio-economic data used for construction of emission inventory. For the Japan region, GOME and CMAQ NO2 data show reasonable agreement with respect to interannual variation and show no clear increasing trend. For CEC, GOME and CMAQ NO2 data indicate a very rapid increasing trend from 2000. Analyses of the seasonal cycle of NO2 VCDs show that GOME data have larger dips than CMAQ NO2 during February–April and September–November. Sensitivity experiments with fixed emission intensity reveal that the detection of emission trends from satellite in fall or winter has a larger error caused by the variability of meteorology. Examination during summer time and annual averaged NO2 VCDs are robust with respect to variability of meteorology and are therefore more suitable for analyses of emission trends. Analysis of recent trends of annual emissions in China shows that the increasing trends of 1996–1998 and 2000–2002 for GOME and CMAQ/REAS show good agreement, but the rate of increase by GOME is approximately 10–11% yr−1 after 2000; it is slightly steeper than CMAQ/REAS (8–9% yr−1). The greatest difference was apparent between the years 1998 and 2000: CMAQ/REAS only shows a few percentage points of increase, whereas GOME gives a greater than 8% yr−1 increase. The exact reason remains unclear, but the most likely explanation is that the emission trend based on the Chinese emission related statistics underestimates the rapid growth of emissions.