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We present an analysis of the major sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) in the Arctic winters 2003/042009/10. There were 6 major SSWs (major warmings [MWs]) in 6 out of the 7 winters, in which the MWs of 2003/0, 2005/06, 2008/09 were in January and those of 2006/07, 2007/08, 2009/10 were in February. Although the winter 2009/10 was relatively cold from mid-December to mid-January, strong wave 1 activity led to a MW in early February, for which the largest momentum flux among the winters was estimated at 60°N/10hPa, about 450m² s-2. The strongest MW, however, was observed in 2008/09 and the weakest in 2006/07. The MW in 2008/09 was triggered by intense wave 2 activity and was a vortex split event. In contrast, strong wave 1 activity led to the MWs of other winters and were vortex displacement events. Large amounts of Eliassen-Palm (EP) and wave 1/2 EP fluxes (about 24 x 105 kg s-2) are estimated shortly before the MWs at 100 hPa averaged over 45-75° N in all winters, suggesting profound tropospheric forcing for the MWs. We observe an increase in the occurrence of MWs (~1.1 MWs/winter) in recent years (1998/99-2009/10), as there were 13 MWs in the 12 Arctic winters, although the long-term average (1957/58-2009/10) of the frequency stays around its historical value (~0.7 MWs/winter), consistent with the findings of previous studies. An analysis of the chemical ozone loss in the past 17 Arctic winters (1993/94-2009/10) suggests that the loss is inversely proportional to the intensity and timing of MWs in each winter, where early (December-January) MWs lead to minimal ozone loss. Therefore, this high frequency of MWs in recent Arctic winters has significant implications for stratospheric ozone trends in the northern hemisphere. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present a detailed discussion of the chemical and dynamical processes in the Arctic winters 1996/1997 and 2010/2011 with high resolution chemical transport model (CTM) simulations and space-based observations. In the Arctic winter 2010/2011, the lower stratospheric minimum temperatures were below 195K for a record period of time, from December to mid-April, and a strong and stable vortex was present during that period. Simulations with the Mimosa-Chim CTM show that the chemical ozone loss started in early January and progressed slowly to 1 ppmv (parts per million by volume) by late February. The loss intensified by early March and reached a record maximum of ∼2.4 ppmv in the late March-early April period over a broad altitude range of 450-550K. This coincides with elevated ozone loss rates of 2-4 ppbv sh-1 (parts per billion by volume/sunlit hour) and a contribution of about 30-55% and 30-35% from the ClO-ClO and ClO-BrO cycles, respectively, in late February and March. In addition, a contribution of 30-50% from the HOx cycle is also estimated in April. We also estimate a loss of about 0.7-1.2 ppmv contributed (75%) by the NOx cycle at 550-700K. The ozone loss estimated in the partial column range of 350-550K exhibits a record value of ∼148DU (Dobson Unit). This is the largest ozone loss ever estimated in the Arctic and is consistent with the remarkable chlorine activation and strong denitrification (40-50%) during the winter, as the modeled ClO shows ∼1.8 ppbv in early January and ∼1 ppbv in March at 450-550K. These model results are in excellent agreement with those found from the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder observations. Our analyses also show that the ozone loss in 2010/2011 is close to that found in some Antarctic winters, for the first time in the observed history. Though the winter 1996/1997 was also very cold in March-April, the temperatures were higher in December-February, and, therefore, chlorine activation was moderate and ozone loss was average with about 1.2 ppmv at 475-550K or 42DU at 350-550K, as diagnosed from the model simulations and measurements. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The wintertime ozone buildup over the Northern Hemisphere (NH) midlatitudes and its connection with the mean meridional circulation in the stratosphere are examined statistically on a monthly basis from October to March (1980-2002). The ozone buildup begins locally in October with positive total ozone tendencies over the North Pacific, which spread eastward and westward in November and finally cover all midlatitudes in December. The local onset of the buildup in October is not evident in zonal mean ozone tendency, which is close to zero. From November to March, zonal mean total ozone tendency (50°-60° N) shows a strong correlation (|r|=0.7) with several zonal mean parameters associated to the mean meridional circulation, namely: eddy heat flux, temperature tendency, the vertical residual velocity and the residual streamfunction. At the same time, on the latitude-altitude cross section, correlation patterns between ozone tendency and widely used eddy heat flux are not uniform during winter. The strongest correlations are located equatorward (almost throughout the stratosphere) or poleward (only in the lower stratosphere) of the edge of the polar vortex. Such distribution may depend on the existence of the midlatitude and polar waveguides which defined refraction of upward propagating waves from the troposphere either to the midlatitude stratosphere or to the polar stratosphere. As a consequence of the nonuniform correlation patterns, heat flux averaged over the common region 45°-75° N, 100 hPa is not always an optimum proxy for statistical models describing total ozone variability in midlatitudes. Other parameters approximating the strength of the mean meridional circulation have more uniform and stable correlation patterns with ozone tendency during winter. We show that the NH midlatitude ozone buildup has a stable statistical relationship with the mean meridional circulation in all months from October to March and half of the interannual variability in monthly ozone tendencies can be explained by applying different proxies of the mean meridional circulation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]