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We apply a local ensemble transform Kalman smoother (LETKS) in combination with the global aerosol–climate model ECHAM–HAM to estimate aerosol emissions from POLDER-3/PARASOL (POLarization and Directionality of the Earth's Reflectances) observations for the year 2006. We assimilate aerosol optical depth at 550 mnm (AOD550), the Ångström exponent at 550 and 865 nm (AE550–865), and single-scattering albedo at 550 nm (SSA550) in order to improve modeled aerosol mass, size and absorption simultaneously. The new global aerosol emissions increase to 1419 Tgyr-1 (+ 28 %) for dust, 1850 Tgyr-1 (+ 75 %) for sea salt, 215 Tgyr-1 (+ 143 %) for organic aerosol and 13.3 Tgyr-1 (+ 75 %) for black carbon, while the sulfur dioxide emissions increase to 198 Tgyr-1 (+ 42 %) and the total deposition of sulfates to 293 Tgyr-1 (+ 39 %). Organic and black carbon emissions are much higher than their prior values from bottom-up inventories, with a stronger increase in biomass burning sources (+ 193 % and + 90 %) than in anthropogenic sources (115 % and 70 %). The evaluation of the experiments with POLDER (assimilated) and AERONET as well as MODIS Dark Target (independent) observations shows a clear improvement compared with the ECHAM–HAM control run. Specifically based on AERONET, the global mean error in AOD550 improves from - 0.094 to - 0.006, while absorption aerosol optical depth at 550 nm (AAOD550) improves from - 0.009 to - 0.004 after the assimilation. A smaller improvement is also observed in the AE550–865 mean absolute error (from 0.428 to 0.393), with a considerably higher improvement over isolated island sites at the ocean. The new dust emissions are closer to the ensemble median of AEROCOM I, AEROCOM III and CMIP5 as well as some of the previous assimilation studies. The new sea salt emissions have become closer to the reported emissions from previous studies. Indications of a missing fraction of coarse dust and sea salt particles are discussed. The biomass burning changes (based on POLDER) can be used as alternative biomass burning scaling factors for the Global Fire Assimilation System (GFAS) inventory distinctively estimated for organic carbon (2.93) and black carbon (1.90) instead of the recommended scaling of 3.4 (Kaiser et al., 2012). The estimated emissions are highly sensitive to the relative humidity due to aerosol water uptake, especially in the case of sulfates. We found that ECHAM–HAM, like most of the global climate models (GCMs) that participated in AEROCOM and CMIP6, overestimated the relative humidity compared with ERA5 and as a result the water uptake by aerosols, assuming the kappa values are not underestimated. If we use the ERA5 relative humidity, sulfate emissions must be further increased, as modeled sulfate AOD is lowered. Specifically, over East Asia, the lower AOD can be attributed to the underestimated precipitation and the lack of simulated nitrates in the model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The reduction of fine particles (PM 2.5) and reactive N (N r) and S (S r) species is a key objective for air pollution control policies because of their major adverse effects on human health, ecosystem diversity, and climate. The sensitivity of global and regional N r , S r , and PM 2.5 to 20 % and 40 % individual and collective reductions in anthropogenic emissions of NH 3 , NO x , and SO x (with respect to a 2015 baseline) is investigated using the EMEP MSC-W (European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme Meteorological Synthesizing Centre – West) atmospheric chemistry transport model with WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting) meteorology. Regional comparisons reveal that the individual emissions reduction has multiple co-benefits and small disbenefits on different species, and those effects are highly geographically variable. A 40 % NH 3 emission reduction decreases regional average NH 3 concentrations by 47 %–49 % but only decreases NH 4+ by 18 % in Euro_Medi, 15 % in East Asia, 12 % in North America, and 4 % in South Asia. This order follows the regional ammonia richness. A disbenefit is the increased SO 2 concentrations in these regions (10 %–16 % for 40 % reductions) because reduced NH 3 levels decrease SO 2 deposition through altering atmospheric acidity. A 40 % NO x emission reduction reduces NO x concentrations in East Asia by 45 %, Euro_Medi and North America by ∼ 38 %, and South Asia by 22 %, whilst the regional order is reversed for fine NO 3- , which is related to enhanced O 3 levels in East Asia (and also, but by less, in Euro_Medi) and decreased O 3 levels in South Asia (and also, but by less, in North America). Consequently, the oxidation of NO x to NO 3- and of SO 2 to SO 42- is enhanced in East Asia but decreased in South Asia, which causes a less effective decrease in NO 3- and even an increase in SO 42- in East Asia but quite the opposite in South Asia. For regional policy making, it is thus vital to reduce three precursors together to minimize such adverse effects. A 40 % SO x emission reduction is slightly more effective in reducing SO 2 (42 %–45 %) than SO 42- (34 %–38 %), whilst the disbenefit is that it yields a ∼ 12 % increase in total NH 3 deposition in the four regions, which further threatens ecosystem diversity. This work also highlights important messages for policy makers concerning the mitigation of PM 2.5. More emissions controls focusing on NH 3 and NO x are necessary for regions with better air quality, such as northern Europe and eastern North America. In East Asia, the three individual reductions are equally effective, whilst in South Asia only SO x reduction is currently effective. The geographically varying non-one-to-one proportionality of chemical responses of N r , S r , and PM 2.5 to emissions reductions revealed by this work show the importance of both prioritizing emissions strategies in different regions and combining several precursor reductions together to maximize the policy effectiveness. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Quantification and attribution of long-term tropospheric ozone trends are critical for understanding the impact of human activity and climate change on atmospheric chemistry but are also challenged by the limited coverage of long-term ozone observations in the free troposphere where ozone has higher production efficiency and radiative potential compared to that at the surface. In this study, we examine observed tropospheric ozone trends, their attributions, and radiative impacts from 1995–2017 using aircraft observations from the In-service Aircraft for a Global Observing System database (IAGOS), ozonesondes, and a multi-decadal GEOS-Chem chemical model simulation. IAGOS observations above 11 regions in the Northern Hemisphere and 19 of 27 global ozonesonde sites have measured increases in tropospheric ozone (950–250 hPa) by 2.7 ± 1.7 and 1.9 ± 1.7 ppbv per decade on average, respectively, with particularly large increases in the lower troposphere (950–800 hPa) above East Asia, the Persian Gulf, India, northern South America, the Gulf of Guinea, and Malaysia/Indonesia by 2.8 to 10.6 ppbv per decade. The GEOS-Chem simulation driven by reanalysis meteorological fields and the most up-to-date year-specific anthropogenic emission inventory reproduces the overall pattern of observed tropospheric ozone trends, including the large ozone increases over the tropics of 2.1–2.9 ppbv per decade and above East Asia of 0.5–1.8 ppbv per decade and the weak tropospheric ozone trends above North America, Europe, and high latitudes in both hemispheres, but trends are underestimated compared to observations. GEOS-Chem estimates an increasing trend of 0.4 Tg yr -1 of the tropospheric ozone burden in 1995–2017. We suggest that uncertainties in the anthropogenic emission inventory in the early years of the simulation (e.g., 1995–1999) over developing regions may contribute to GEOS-Chem's underestimation of tropospheric ozone trends. GEOS-Chem sensitivity simulations show that changes in global anthropogenic emission patterns, including the equatorward redistribution of surface emissions and the rapid increases in aircraft emissions, are the dominant factors contributing to tropospheric ozone trends by 0.5 Tg yr -1. In particular, we highlight the disproportionately large, but previously underappreciated, contribution of aircraft emissions to tropospheric ozone trends by 0.3 Tg yr -1 , mainly due to aircraft emitting NO x in the mid-troposphere and upper troposphere where ozone production efficiency is high. Decreases in lower-stratospheric ozone and the stratosphere–troposphere flux in 1995–2017 contribute to an ozone decrease at mid-latitudes and high latitudes. We estimate the change in tropospheric ozone radiative impacts from 1995–1999 to 2013–2017 is +18.5 mW m -2 , with 43.5 mW m -2 contributed by anthropogenic emission changes (20.5 mW m -2 alone by aircraft emissions), highlighting that the equatorward redistribution of emissions to areas with strong convection and the increase in aircraft emissions are effective for increasing tropospheric ozone's greenhouse effect. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ammonia (NH3) plays a central role in the chemistry of inorganic secondary aerosols in the atmosphere. The largest emission sector for NH3 is agriculture, where NH3 is volatilized from livestock wastes and fertilized soils. Although the NH3 volatilization from soils is driven by the soil temperature and moisture, many atmospheric chemistry models prescribe the emission using yearly emission inventories and climatological seasonal variations. Here we evaluate an alternative approach where the NH3 emissions from agriculture are simulated interactively using the process model FANv2 (Flow of Agricultural Nitrogen, version 2) coupled to the Community Atmospheric Model with Chemistry (CAM-chem). We run a set of 6-year global simulations using the NH3 emission from FANv2 and three global emission inventories (EDGAR, CEDS and HTAP) and evaluate the model performance using a global set of multi-component (atmospheric NH3 and NH4+ , and NH4+ wet deposition) in situ observations. Over East Asia, Europe and North America, the simulations with different emissions perform similarly when compared with the observed geographical patterns. The seasonal distributions of NH3 emissions differ between the inventories, and the comparison to observations suggests that both FANv2 and the inventories would benefit from more realistic timing of fertilizer applications. The largest differences between the simulations occur over data-scarce regions. In Africa, the emissions simulated by FANv2 are 200 %–300 % higher than in the inventories, and the available in situ observations from western and central Africa, as well as NH3 retrievals from the Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) instrument, are consistent with the higher NH3 emissions as simulated by FANv2. Overall, in simulating ammonia and ammonium concentrations over regions with detailed regional emission inventories, the inventories based on these details (HTAP, CEDS) capture the atmospheric concentrations and their seasonal variability the best. However these inventories cannot capture the impact of meteorological variability on the emissions, nor can these inventories couple the emissions to the biogeochemical cycles and their changes with climate drivers. Finally, we show with sensitivity experiments that the simulated time-averaged nitrate concentration in air is sensitive to the temporal resolution of the NH3 emissions. Over the CASTNET monitoring network covering the US, resolving the NH3 emissions hourly instead monthly reduced the positive model bias from approximately 80 % to 60 % of the observed yearly mean nitrate concentration. This suggests that some of the commonly reported overestimation of aerosol nitrate over the US may be related to unresolved temporal variability in the NH3 emissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Limited availability of atmospheric ammonia (NH 3) observations limits our understanding of controls on its spatial and temporal variability and its interactions with the ecosystem. Here we used the Model for Ozone and Related chemical Tracers version 4 (MOZART-4) global chemistry transport model and the Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution version 2 (HTAP-v2) emission inventory to simulate global NH 3 distribution for the year 2010. We presented a first comparison of the model with monthly averaged satellite distributions and limited ground-based observations available across South Asia. The MOZART-4 simulations over South Asia and East Asia were evaluated with the NH 3 retrievals obtained from the Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) satellite and 69 ground-based monitoring stations for air quality across South Asia and 32 ground-based monitoring stations from the Nationwide Nitrogen Deposition Monitoring Network (NNDMN) of China. We identified the northern region of India (Indo-Gangetic Plain, IGP) as a hotspot for NH 3 in Asia, both using the model and satellite observations. In general, a close agreement was found between yearly averaged NH 3 total columns simulated by the model and IASI satellite measurements over the IGP, South Asia (r=0.81), and the North China Plain (NCP), East Asia (r=0.90). However, the MOZART-4-simulated NH 3 column was substantially higher over South Asia than East Asia, as compared with the IASI retrievals, which show smaller differences. Model-simulated surface NH 3 concentrations indicated smaller concentrations in all seasons than surface NH 3 measured by the ground-based observations over South and East Asia, although uncertainties remain in the available surface NH 3 measurements. Overall, the comparison of East Asia and South Asia using both MOZART-4 model and satellite observations showed smaller NH 3 columns in East Asia compared with South Asia for comparable emissions, indicating rapid dissipation of NH 3 due to secondary aerosol formation, which can be explained by larger emissions of acidic precursor gases in East Asia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Bromoform is the major by-product from chlorination of cooling water in coastal power plants. The number of power plants in East and Southeast Asian economies has increased rapidly, exceeding mean global growth. Bottom-up estimates of bromoform emissions based on few measurements appear to under-represent the industrial sources of bromoform from East Asia. Using oceanic Lagrangian analyses, we assess the amount of bromoform produced from power plant cooling-water treatment in East and Southeast Asia. The spread of bromoform is simulated as passive particles that are advected using the three-dimensional velocity fields over the years 2005/2006 from the high-resolution NEMO-ORCA0083 ocean general circulation model. Simulations are run for three scenarios with varying initial bromoform concentrations based on the range of bromoform measurements in cooling-water discharge. Comparing the modelled anthropogenic bromoform to in situ observations in the surface ocean and atmosphere, the two lower scenarios show the best agreement, suggesting initial bromoform concentrations in cooling water to be around 20–60 µgL-1. Based on these two scenarios, the model produces elevated bromoform in coastal waters of East Asia with average concentrations of 23 and 68 pmolL-1 and maximum values in the Yellow Sea, Sea of Japan and East China Sea. The industrially produced bromoform is quickly emitted into the atmosphere with average air–sea flux of 3.1 and 9.1 nmolm-2h-1 , respectively. Atmospheric abundances of anthropogenic bromoform are derived from simulations with the Lagrangian particle dispersion model FLEXPART based on ERA-Interim wind fields in 2016. In the marine boundary layer of East Asia, the FLEXPART simulations show mean anthropogenic bromoform mixing ratios of 0.4–1.3 ppt , which are 2–6 times larger compared to the climatological bromoform estimate. During boreal winter, the simulations show that some part of the anthropogenic bromoform is transported by the northeasterly winter monsoon towards the tropical regions, whereas during boreal summer anthropogenic bromoform is confined to the Northern Hemisphere subtropics. Convective events in the tropics entrain an additional 0.04–0.05 ppt of anthropogenic bromoform into the stratosphere, averaged over tropical Southeast Asia. In our simulations, only about 10 % of anthropogenic bromoform is outgassed from power plants located in the tropics south of 20 ∘ N, so that only a small fraction of the anthropogenic bromoform reaches the stratosphere. We conclude that bromoform from cooling-water treatment in East Asia is a significant source of atmospheric bromine and might be responsible for annual emissions of 100–300 Mmol of Br in this region. These anthropogenic bromoform sources from industrial water treatment might be a missing factor in global flux estimates of organic bromine. While the current emissions of industrial bromoform provide a significant contribution to regional tropospheric budgets, they provide only a minor contribution to the stratospheric bromine budget of 0.24–0.30 ppt of Br. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding the global distribution of atmospheric black carbon (BC) is essential for unveiling its climatic effect. However, there are still large uncertainties regarding the simulation of BC transport due to inadequate information about the removal process. We accessed the wet removal rate of BC in East Asia based on long-term measurements over the 2010–2016 period at three representative background sites (Baengnyeong and Gosan in South Korea and Noto in Japan). The average wet removal rate, represented by transport efficiency (TE), i.e., the fraction of undeposited BC particles during transport, was estimated to be 0.73 in East Asia from 2010 to 2016. According to the relationship between accumulated precipitation along trajectory and TE, the wet removal efficiency was lower in East and North China but higher in South Korea and Japan, implying the importance of the aging process and frequency of exposure to below- and in-cloud scavenging conditions during air mass transport. Moreover, the wet scavenging in winter and summer showed the highest and lowest efficiency, respectively, although the lowest removal efficiency in summer was primarily associated with a reduced BC aging process because the in-cloud scavenging condition was dominant. The average half-life and e -folding lifetime of BC were 2.8 and 7.1 d , respectively, which is similar to previous studies, but those values differed according to the geographical location and meteorological conditions of each site. Next, by comparing TE from the FLEXible PARTicle (FLEXPART) Lagrangian transport model (version 10.4), we diagnosed the scavenging coefficients (s -1) of the below- and in-cloud scavenging scheme implemented in FLEXPART. The overall median TE from FLEXPART (0.91) was overestimated compared to the measured value, implying the underestimation of wet scavenging coefficients in the model simulation. The median of the measured below-cloud scavenging coefficient showed a lower value than that calculated according to FLEXPART scheme by a factor of 1.7. On the other hand, the overall median of the calculated in-cloud scavenging coefficients from the FLEXPART scheme was highly underestimated by 1 order of magnitude, compared to the measured value. From an analysis of artificial neural networks, the convective available potential energy, which is well known as an indicator of vertical instability, should be considered in the in-cloud scavenging process to improve the representative regional difference in BC wet scavenging over East Asia. For the first time, this study suggests an effective and straightforward evaluation method for wet scavenging schemes (both below and in cloud), by introducing TE along with excluding effects from the inaccurate emission inventories. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The black carbon (BC) and carbon monoxide (CO) emission ratios were estimated and compiled from long-term, harmonized observations of the ΔBC/ΔCO ratios under conditions unaffected by wet deposition at four sites in East Asia, including two sites in South Korea (Baengnyeong and Gosan) and two sites in Japan (Noto and Fukuoka). Extended spatio-temporal coverage enabled estimation of the full seasonality and elucidation of the emission ratio in North Korea for the first time. The estimated ratios were used to validate the Regional Emission inventory in ASia (REAS) version 2.1 based on six study domains ("East China", "North China", "Northeast China", South Korea, North Korea, and Japan). We found that the ΔBC/ΔCO ratios from four sites converged into a narrow range (6.2–7.9 ng m -3 ppb -1) , suggesting consistency in the results from independent observations and similarity in source profiles over the regions. The BC/CO ratios from the REAS emission inventory (7.7 ng m -3 ppb -1 for East China – 23.2 ng m -3 ppb -1 for South Korea) were overestimated by factors of 1.1 for East China to 3.0 for South Korea, whereas the ratio for North Korea (3.7 ng m -3 ppb -1 from REAS) was underestimated by a factor of 2.0, most likely due to inaccurate emissions from the road transportation sector. Seasonal variation in the BC/CO ratio from REAS was found to be the highest in winter (China and North Korea) or summer (South Korea and Japan), whereas the measured ΔBC/ΔCO ratio was the highest in spring in all source regions, indicating the need for further characterization of the seasonality when creating a bottom-up emission inventory. At levels of administrative districts, overestimation in Seoul, the southwestern regions of South Korea, and Northeast China was noticeable, and underestimation was mainly observed in the western regions in North Korea, including Pyongyang. These diagnoses are useful for identifying regions where revisions in the inventory are necessary, providing guidance for the refinement of BC and CO emission rate estimates over East Asia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite the significant progress in improving chemical transport models (CTMs), applications of these modeling endeavors are still subject to large and complex model uncertainty. The Model Inter-Comparison Study for Asia III (MICS-Asia III) has provided the opportunity to assess the capability and uncertainty of current CTMs in East Asian applications. In this study, we have evaluated the multi-model simulations of nitrogen dioxide (NO2), carbon monoxide (CO) and ammonia (NH3) over China under the framework of MICS-Asia III. A total of 13 modeling results, provided by several independent groups from different countries and regions, were used in this study. Most of these models used the same modeling domain with a horizontal resolution of 45 km and were driven by common emission inventories and meteorological inputs. New observations over the North China Plain (NCP) and Pearl River Delta (PRD) regions were also available in MICS-Asia III, allowing the model evaluations over highly industrialized regions. The evaluation results show that most models captured the monthly and spatial patterns of NO2 concentrations in the NCP region well, though NO2 levels were slightly underestimated. Relatively poor performance in NO2 simulations was found in the PRD region, with larger root-mean-square error and lower spatial correlation coefficients, which may be related to the coarse resolution or inappropriate spatial allocations of the emission inventories in the PRD region. All models significantly underpredicted CO concentrations in both the NCP and PRD regions, with annual mean concentrations that were 65.4 % and 61.4 % underestimated by the ensemble mean. Such large underestimations suggest that CO emissions might be underestimated in the current emission inventory. In contrast to the good skills for simulating the monthly variations in NO2 and CO concentrations, all models failed to reproduce the observed monthly variations in NH3 concentrations in the NCP region. Most models mismatched the observed peak in July and showed negative correlation coefficients with the observations, which may be closely related to the uncertainty in the monthly variations in NH3 emissions and the NH3 gas–aerosol partitioning. Finally, model intercomparisons have been conducted to quantify the impacts of model uncertainty on the simulations of these gases, which are shown to increase with the reactivity of species. Models contained more uncertainty in the NH3 simulations. This suggests that for some highly active and/or short-lived primary pollutants, like NH3 , model uncertainty can also take a great part in the forecast uncertainty in addition to the emission uncertainty. Based on these results, some recommendations are made for future studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]