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Modelling drought is vital to water resources management, particularly in arid areas, to reduce its effects. Drought severity and frequency are significantly influenced by climate change. In this study, a novel hybrid methodology was built, data preprocessing and artificial neural network (ANN) combined with the constriction coefficient-based particle swarm optimisation and chaotic gravitational search algorithm (CPSOCGSA), to forecast standard precipitation index (SPI) based on climatic factors. Additionally, the marine predators algorithm (MPA) and the slime mould algorithm (SMA) were used to validate the performance of the CPSOCGSA algorithm. Climatic factors data from 1990 to 2020 were employed to create and evaluate the SPI 1, SPI 3, and SPI 6 models for Al-Kut City, Iraq. The results indicated that data preprocessing methods improve data quality and find the best predictors scenario. The performance of CPSOCGSA-ANN is better than MPA-ANN and SMA-ANN algorithms based on various statistical criteria (i.e., R2, MAE, and RMSE). The proposed methodology yield R2 = 0.93, 0.93, and 0.88 for SPI 1, SPI 3, and SPI 6, respectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The energy sector is integral to the wellbeing of the entire Iraqi economy and will remain so well into the future. In the current study, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) methodology was used to estimate CO2, CH4, and N2O emissions from oil refining and electricity generation in Iraq for a period exceeding 25 years. From 1990, Iraq experienced two wars and an economic siege, then faced political, social, and security instability, which affected its energy production. The results showed that the CO2, CH4, and N2O emissions from the oil refining and electricity generation in Iraq experienced a sharp decline in the years 1991, 2003, and 2007 due to a decrease in the production of oil derivatives in refineries, according to political and security conditions. The total CO2 emissions from the types of fuel used in electricity generation in Iraq was approximately 14,000 Gg and 58,000 Gg in 1990 and 2017, respectively. The increase in CO2 emissions was greater than 300% between 1990 and 2017. The continued use of poor types of fuel, such as fuel oil and crude oil, will lead to an increase in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from these sources, and higher levels of environmental pollution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]