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Heavy and localized summer events are very hard to predict and, at the same time, potentially dangerous for people and properties. This paper focuses on an event occurred on 15 July 2020 in Palermo, the largest city of Sicily, causing about 120 mm of rainfall in 3 h. The aim is to investigate the event predictability and a potential way to improve the precipitation forecast. To reach this aim, lightning (LDA) and radar reflectivity data assimilation (RDA) was applied. LDA was able to trigger deep convection over Palermo, with high precision, whereas the RDA had a key role in the prediction of the amount of rainfall. The simultaneous assimilation of both data sources gave the best results. An alert for a moderate–intense forecast could have been issued one hour and a half before the storm developed over the city, even if predicting only half of the total rainfall. A satisfactory prediction of the amount of rainfall could have been issued at 14:30 UTC, when precipitation was already affecting the city. Although the study is centered on a single event, it highlights the need for rapidly updated forecast cycles with data assimilation at the local scale, for a better prediction of similar events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Hydrological monitoring systems relying on radar data and distributed hydrological models are now feasible at large-scale and represent effective early warning systems for flash floods. Here we describe a system that allows hydrological occurrences in terms of streamflow at a national scale to be monitored. We then evaluate its operational application in Italy, a country characterized by various climatic conditions and topographic features. The proposed system exploits a modified conditional merging (MCM) algorithm to generate rainfall estimates by blending data from national radar and rain-gauge networks. Then, we use the merged rainfall fields as input for the distributed and continuous hydrological model, Continuum, to obtain real-time streamflow predictions. We assess its performance in terms of rainfall estimates from MCM, using cross-validation and comparison with a conditional merging technique at an event-scale. We also assess its performance against rainfall fields from ground-based data at catchment-scale. We further evaluate the performance of the hydrological system in terms of streamflow against observed data (relative error on high flows less than 25% and Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency greater than 0.5 for 72% and 46% of the calibrated study sections, respectively). These results, therefore, confirm the suitability of such an approach, even at national scale, over a wide range of catchment types, climates, and hydrometeorological regimes, and for operational purposes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]