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Using multiple observational and reanalysis data, this paper investigates the impact of the interdecadal shift in summer Arctic Oscillation (AO) on precipitation in East Asia, by removing ENSO influences. The results indicate that the lower-layer activity center of summer AO in Atlantic shifted eastward after the mid-1980s. This regime shift of summer AO has a significant impact on precipitation in East Asia. Before the mid-1980s, the key regions in which precipitation was affected by AO in East Asia were northern East Asia and Northeastern China and adjacent regions. After the mid-1980s, the key regions in which precipitation was affected by AO in East Asia were central Inner Mongolia and Southern China. The mechanism of precipitation changes can be attributed to changes in atmospheric circulation and water vapor transport related to AO changes. After the mid-1980s, the influence of AO on geopotential height over northern East Asia weakened; meanwhile, the impact of AO on geopotential height over China increased. Consistent with the changes in atmospheric circulation, water vapor transport in East Asia also underwent interdecadal changes before and after the mid-1980s. The differences in atmospheric circulation and water vapor transport in East Asia can be traced back to the North Atlantic. Before the mid-1980s, wave activity flux related to summer AO tended to propagate in high latitudes and subtropics; after the mid-1980s, the wave activity flux changed in its subtropical path and propagated eastward from the North Atlantic through the Middle East to China, significantly affecting the summer precipitation in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper is written to commemorate the 10th anniversary of academician Ye Duzheng (Yeh T.C.) pass away and his great contributions to the development of atmospheric dynamics. Under the inspiration and guidance of the theory of Rossby wave energy dispersion, remarkable progresses have been made in research on planetary wave dynamics and teleconnections of atmospheric circulation anomalies. This paper aims to make a brief review of the studies on the propagating characteristics of quasi-stationary planetary waves in a three-dimensional spherical atmosphere and the dynamic processes of the interannual and interdecadal variabilities of the East Asian summer and winter monsoon systems. Especially, this paper systematically reviews the progresses of the studies on the impacts of the interannual and interdecadal variabilities of the East Asia/Pacific (EAP) pattern teleconnection wave train propagating along the meridional direction over East Asia and the "Silk Road" pattern teleconnection wave train propagating along the zonal direction within the subtropical jet from West Asia to East Asia on the East Asian summer monsoon system and the summer precipitation variability in China, under the guidance of the theory of Rossby wave energy dispersion. Moreover, this paper reviews the dynamic processes of the impact of the interannual and interdecadal oscillations of the propagating waveguides of boreal quasi-stationary planetary waves on the variability of the East Asian winter monsoon system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) data are one of the key factors in studying the radiation balance of the earth–atmosphere system in East Asia. It is of great significance to explore the influence factors on OLR. This paper processes the data of nearly 19 years, from September 2002 to February 2022, and conducts in-depth research using the exponential smoothing method, empirical orthogonal decomposition (EOF), correlation analysis, and other methods. We found that the spatial distribution of OLR is zonal symmetry and gradually decreases with the increase of latitude. Using EOF analysis, it is found that the total variance contribution of the first four decomposed spatial features exceeds 70%, and the overall change trend of the four-time coefficients in the past 19 years all show a downward trend. OLR is positively correlated with total column water vapor (TCWV), air temperature (AT), and cloud top temperature (CTT), but negatively correlated with cloud top pressure (CTP). OLR has a similar spatial correlation distribution with TCWV and AT, while the spatial correlation between OLR and CTP is opposite to the first two parameters. In most parts of East Asia, the spatial correlation with CTT exceeds 0.8. The change in OLR value is affected by various meteorological parameters. In East Asia, the positive correlation between 30° N and 60° N is significantly affected by TCWV, AT, and CTT; and the negative correlation is more significantly affected by CTP. At 0–25° N, the positive correlation is significantly affected by CTP and CTT, while the negative correlation is significantly affected by TCWV and AT. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The surface soil moisture over the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau (QTP) has an important impact on the weather and climate of East Asia. Under climate warming, the imbalance of solid–liquid water of QTP has become a research hotspot, but the surface soil moisture dynamics over QTP are not clear owing to the lack of precise measurements over a large scale. In this paper, the quality of gridded surface soil moisture products including CSSPv2 high-resolution (6 km) simulation, ESA CCI satellite retrieval, ERA5 land-atmosphere coupled reanalysis, and GLDAS2.1 land reanalysis products (Noah, Catchment, VIC) is analyzed over QTP by comparison with the in situ measurements at 140 stations during 2009–2017. We find that the CSSPv2 product shows a higher correlation than the global satellite and reanalysis products, with correlation increased by 7.7%–115.6%. The root mean squared error of the CSSPv2 product is lower than that of other products, with the error decreased by 13.4%–46.3%. The triple collocation analysis using high-resolution simulation, global reanalysis, and satellite retrieval products over the entire plateau shows that the error of CSSPv2 is the lowest, followed by ESA CCI, while ERA5 is the highest. The soil moisture products of ESA CCI, ERA5, and CSSPv2 all show an increasing trend from April to September of 2009 to 2017, with wetting in the west and drying in the east. This study indicates that the CSSPv2 high-resolution surface soil moisture product has better performance over QTP than other global products, and the global satellite and reanalysis products may overestimate the surface soil moisture dynamics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The planetary boundary layer height is a very important parameter in the atmosphere because it determines the range where the most effective dispersion processes take place, and it serves as a medium for the vertical transport of heat, moisture, and pollutants. The accurate estimation of boundary layer height (BLH) is vital for air pollution prediction. In this paper, the BLH estimated by AD-Net was compared with that from the ECMWFs over East Asia from September 2015 to August 2018. A continuous 24 h BLH estimation from AD-Net generally matched with the aerosol vertical structures. Diurnal and seasonal variation and spatial variation of BLH can also be shown, suggesting the good performance of AD-Net BLH. The comparison of seasonal mean BLH between AD-Net and ECMWFs was conducted at 20 lidar sites. On average, there was an underestimation of the ECMWFs, mostly in summer and winter. A significant disagreement between AD-Net and the ECMWFs was noted, especially over coastal areas and mountain areas. In order to investigate the difference between them, two BLHs were compared under different land cover types and climate conditions. In general, the BLH of the ECMWFs was less than that of AD-Net over most of the land cover types in summer and winter. The smallest differences (0.26 km) existed over water surfaces in winter compared with AD-Net, and the largest underestimation (1.42 km) occurred over grassland surfaces in summer. Similarly, all the BLHs of the ECMWFs were lesser than those of AD-Net under different climatological conditions in summer and winter. The mean difference between AD-Net BLH and ECMWFs BLH was 1.05, 0.71, and 0.48 km for arid regions, semi-arid and semi-wet regions, and wet regions, respectively. The largest underestimation occurred over arid regions in winter, with a value of 1.42 km. The smallest underestimation occurred over wet regions, with a value of 0.27 km. The present research provides better insight into the BLH performance in the ECMWFs reanalysis data. The new continuous PBL dataset can be used to improve the model parameterization of PBL and our understanding of the atmospheric transport of pollutants which affect air quality and human health. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the early summer (June) of 2022, the spatial mean precipitation in northeast China (NEC) was 62% higher than normal and broke the historical record since 1951. Based on the precipitation data of 245 meteorological stations in NEC and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis, this paper analyzes the role of large-scale circulation and sea-surface temperature (SST) associated with anomalous precipitation over NEC in June using singular value decomposition (SVD), correlation analysis, regression analysis, and composite analysis methods, and further investigates the possible cause of the abnormal precipitation in June 2022. Results show that the northeast China cold vortex (NCCV) accompanying the blocking high in the Okhotsk Sea (BHOS) has been the primary mid-to-high latitude atmospheric circulation pattern affecting NEC precipitation in June since 2001. This circulation pattern is closely related to the tripole SST pattern over the North Atlantic (NAT) in March. In June 2022, the NAT SST anomaly in March stimulates eastward-propagating wave energy, resulting in the downstream anomalous circulation pattern in which the NCCV cooperates with the BHOS in the mid-high latitudes of East Asia. Under this background atmospheric circulation favorable for precipitation, the Kuroshio region SST anomaly in June led to a more northward and stronger anomalous anticyclone in the northwestern Pacific through local air–sea interaction, which provides more sufficient water vapor for NEC, resulting in unprecedented precipitation in June 2022. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The rainfall in the Dongting Lake Basin influences tens of millions of people, and its long-term change remains uncertain. In this paper, 15 CMIP5 models with precipitation data for the time period of 2006–2019 for which reliable observations are available under the RCP4.5 scenario were evaluated for their applicability, and the models with better simulation results were selected for predicting the precipitation in the Dongting Lake Basin during the flood season (April–September) in the mid-21st century (2020–2049). The results of the study show that (i) most models behaved reasonably consistent with the observation in the Dongting Lake Basin, and predicted an upward trend for the future precipitation while the multi-model ensemble (MME) showed a relatively slow increasing trend of 0.8 mm/year; (ii) the future precipitation in Dongting Lake Basin presented a variation form of "peak–valley–peak–valley", suggesting strong interannual and interdecadal variations; (iii) the interannual variability showed great agreement with large-scale circulation, implying that the rainfall is controlled by the circulation. The analysis of the wind fields at 200 hPa and 850 hPa in the peak and valley years showed that the characteristics of low-level convergence and high-level divergence were significantly stronger in the peak precipitation years than in the weak years; moreover, the teleconnection pattern of "+ − +" from Europe, the Ural Mountains, and East Asia was clearly manifested in the 500 hPa height field of the Dongting Lake Basin, which can influence the intensity of the trough ridge over East Asia and change the low-level water vapor convergence and divergence, thus affecting the source of water vapor in the Dongting Lake Basin. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Observation bias and error characteristics are the preconditions for the effective assimilation of observation data. In this paper, the bias and error characteristics of the AHI (Advanced Himawari Imager (AHI) and AGRI (Multi-Channel Advanced Geostationary Orbit Radiation Imager (AGRI) data are compared and analyzed, with an emphasis on the observations obtained from land areas. The results show that the observation errors of the two instruments for the ocean area have a good channel consistency over ocean areas, which are all with errors of about 0.6 K; however, the bias and error are significantly affected by the land-surface types and terrain heights over land. For most of the AHI channels, the bias in urban-area bias is smaller than that of those of other surface types, while that of the AGRI data exhibits just the opposite trend, with obviously larger biases in urban areas. However, the observation errors of these two instruments in urban areas are significantly smaller than those of other surface types. The biases of the two instruments do not extensively change much with the terrain height, only slightly decreasing when the height is above 1000 m; however, the observation errors increase obviously with the increase of terrain heights. The difference between the two instruments is that the observation error of the AHI data tends to be stable and stabilizes above 1000 m, while that of the AGRI data is relatively stable below 500 m. The observation errors of the CO2-sensitive channels of the two instruments over the land areas are obviously smaller than those of other near-surface channels, which may indicate that the data obtained in these two CO2 channels have good application prospects for assimilation over land. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, the performances of 12 CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5) models for simulating the climatology and interannual variability of the East Asian trough (EAT) are assessed using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis data and the outputs of the CMIP5 models. The multimodel ensemble (MME) successfully reproduces the spatial pattern and spatial variations in the climatology and interannual variability of the EAT but the intensity and interannual variability of EAT are weaker than in the observations. The biases in intensity (interannual variability) are larger over the southern (northern) part of the EAT than over the northern (southern) part. The intermodel spreads are small for the EAT intensity but are large for its location in terms of both latitude and longitude. The simulated EAT in the MME is about 3° E and 1.5° S of that observed. All 12 CMIP5 models reproduce the first empirical orthogonal function (EOF) mode of EAT activity; however, its intensity and location are only successfully captured in half of the models and its linear weakening trend is simulated in ten models. The second EOF mode of EAT activity and its linear strengthening trend are successfully reproduced in eight models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The 24th Olympic and Paralympic Winter Games will take place in Beijing in 2022. All three competition zones are vulnerable to extreme cold surges (ECSs), owing to the occurrence of the East Asian winter monsoon. In this paper, a representative competition domain (37.5–42.5° N, 110–120° E) is adopted, with a view to avoiding the differences in both the geographies and the thresholds of ECSs among different zones by considering the probability of simultaneous occurrences. Since 2009, the ECSs in the domain have displayed higher frequency and extremity. Based on all ECS cases in the domain, the dominant circulation is revealed by a quasi "reverse-Ω" pattern, with two strong ridges over the east of the Ural Mountain and the Okhotsk Sea, and a broad, deep trough in East Asia. The influencing sources of the ECSs at the domain could be traced to the Novaya Zemlya by a day-by-day backward analysis. The oblique latitude/longitude–time profiles of both the 500 hPa geopotential height and the 850 hPa air temperature anomalies from the source to the domain clearly indicate that the pre-signal could have a leading influence that exceeds ten days, with a slow accumulation in the first stage and a rapid outburst in the second stage. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate is a key factor in agriculture, but we are unable to adequately predict future climates. Although some studies have addressed the short and long-run impacts of climate change on agriculture, few of them specifically focused on the analysis of its thermal component. Climatic regions with an extreme thermal range are a special case, as seasonal contrasts complicate the picture. Based on the above, the purpose of the paper is twofold. First, we review methods and indices used for the estimation of changes in the thermal component of the climate and demonstrate the usefulness of a sensitivity assessment methodology that gives some indication of the likely spatial extent of areas of high or low sensitivity to climate change and the size of the potential impact of that change, which is specifically beneficial in regions with high temperature extremes. Secondly, we constructed a composite indicator, called the Growing Degree Day Sensitivity Index (GDDSI) and defined as the percentage change in Growing Degree Day (GDD) for warming scenarios +1, +2 and +3 °C. GDDs were calculated for threshold base air temperatures of 0, 5, 10 and 15 °C, and a high-temperature limit of 30 °C. A GDD sensitivity analysis was applied to the thermally extreme climate of the Russian Far East. We analyzed the data of 50 weather stations across the study region over the period 1966–2017. The results show a strong GDDSI north-to-south gradient. In most cases, the sensitivity does not increase significantly as the warming rate increases. The higher the base threshold, the higher the sensitivity: GDDs with a threshold at 15 °C had the highest sensitivity in the far north of the study area where conditions are currently marginal for crop growth. The sensitivity analysis circumnavigates the difficulty of uncertainty in knowing what future climate to expect and informs planning decisions. The mapped results are useful for identifying areas of high sensitivity to climate change as well as the magnitude of the potential impact of that change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we investigated the possible impact of snow darkening effect (SDE) by light-absorbing aerosols on the regional changes of the hydrological cycle over Eurasia using the NASA GEOS-5 Model with aerosol tracers and a state-of-the-art snow darkening module, the Goddard SnoW Impurity Module (GOSWIM) for the land surface. Two sets of ten-member ensemble experiments for 10 years were carried out forced by prescribed sea surface temperature (2002–2011) with different atmospheric initial conditions, with and without SDE, respectively. Results show that SDE can exert a significant regional influence in partitioning the contributions of evaporative and advective processes on the hydrological cycle, during spring and summer season. Over western Eurasia, SDE-induced rainfall increase during early spring can be largely explained by the increased evaporation from snowmelt. Rainfall, however, decreases in early summer due to the reduced evaporation as well as moisture divergence and atmospheric subsidence associated with the development of an anomalous mid- to upper-tropospheric anticyclonic circulation. On the other hand, in the East Asian monsoon region, moisture advection from the adjacent ocean is a main contributor to rainfall increase in the melting season. A warmer land-surface caused by earlier snowmelt and subsequent drying further increases moisture transport and convergence significantly enhancing rainfall over the region. Our findings suggest that the SDE may play an important role in leading to hotter and drier summers over western Eurasia, through coupled land-atmosphere interaction, while enhancing East Asian summer monsoonal precipitation via enhanced land-ocean thermal contrast and moisture transport due to the SDE-induced warmer Eurasian continent. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Highlights from the article: Moreover, a number of studies in recent years have drawn attention to the increasing intensity of heavy rainfall events, heat waves, and severe droughts in monsoon regions. It is imperative that scientists who study monsoon circulations improve the prediction of their start date or onset, the monsoon intensity, and how these variables respond to climate change. The 16 papers in this volume cover several regional monsoons including East Asia, South Asia and the South China Sea, Australian monsoon, and African Monsoon.