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This paper is written to commemorate the 10th anniversary of academician Ye Duzheng (Yeh T.C.) pass away and his great contributions to the development of atmospheric dynamics. Under the inspiration and guidance of the theory of Rossby wave energy dispersion, remarkable progresses have been made in research on planetary wave dynamics and teleconnections of atmospheric circulation anomalies. This paper aims to make a brief review of the studies on the propagating characteristics of quasi-stationary planetary waves in a three-dimensional spherical atmosphere and the dynamic processes of the interannual and interdecadal variabilities of the East Asian summer and winter monsoon systems. Especially, this paper systematically reviews the progresses of the studies on the impacts of the interannual and interdecadal variabilities of the East Asia/Pacific (EAP) pattern teleconnection wave train propagating along the meridional direction over East Asia and the "Silk Road" pattern teleconnection wave train propagating along the zonal direction within the subtropical jet from West Asia to East Asia on the East Asian summer monsoon system and the summer precipitation variability in China, under the guidance of the theory of Rossby wave energy dispersion. Moreover, this paper reviews the dynamic processes of the impact of the interannual and interdecadal oscillations of the propagating waveguides of boreal quasi-stationary planetary waves on the variability of the East Asian winter monsoon system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In East Asia, where concentrated summer precipitation often leads to climate disasters, understanding the factors that cause such extreme rainfall is crucial for effective forecasting and preparedness. The western North Pacific subtropical high (WNPSH) is a key driver of summer precipitation variability, and therefore, its monitoring is critical to predicting the wet or dry periods during the East Asian summer monsoon. Using the Geo-KOMPSAT 2A (GK2A) satellite cloud amount data and ERA5 reanalysis data during the years 2020–2023, this study identified three leading empirical orthogonal function (EOF) modes and investigated the associated WNPSH variability at synoptic and subseasonal scales. The analysis includes a linear regression of meteorological fields onto the principal component (PC) time series. All three modes play a role in the spatiotemporal variability of the WNPSH, exhibiting lead–lag relationships. In particular, the second mode is responsible for its northwestward shift and intensification. As the WNPSH moves northwestward, the position of the monsoon rain band also shifts, and its intensity is modulated mainly by the moisture transport along the WNPSH boundary. Our results highlight the potential of high-resolution, real-time data from the GK2A satellite to elucidate WNPSH variability and its impact on the East Asian summer monsoon. By addressing the variability of the WNSPH using GK2A data, we pave the way for the development of a real-time monitoring framework with GK2A, which will improve our predictability and readiness for extreme weather events in East Asia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The impacts of Arctic sea ice on climate in middle and high latitudes have been extensively studied. However, its effects on climate in low latitudes, particularly on summer monsoon rainfall in the South China Sea (SCS), have received limited attention. Thus, this study investigates the connection between the Arctic sea ice concentration (SIC) anomaly and the early summer monsoon rainfall (ESMR) in the SCS and its underlying physical mechanism. The results reveal a significant positive correlation between the Barents Sea (BS) SIC in May and the ESMR in the SCS. When there is more (less) SIC in the Barents Sea (BS) during May, this results in a positive (negative) anomaly of the local turbulent heat flux, which lasts until June. This, in turn, excites an upward (downward) air motion anomaly in the vicinity of the BS, causing a corresponding downward (upward) motion anomaly over the Black Sea. Consequently, this triggers a wave train similar to the Eurasian (SEU) teleconnection, propagating eastward towards East Asia. The SEU further leads to an (a) upward (downward) motion anomaly and weakens (strengthens) the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) over the SCS, which is accompanied by a southwest adequate (scarce) water vapor anomaly transporting from the Indian Ocean, resulting in more (less) precipitation in the SCS. Furthermore, the response of ESMR in the SCS to the SIC in the BS is further verified by using the Community Atmosphere Model version 5.3 (CAM5.3). This study introduces novel precursor factors that influence the South China Sea summer monsoon (SCSSM), presenting a new insight for climate prediction in this region, which holds significant implications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The differences between the two global warming targets of the Paris Agreement, 1.5 °C and 2 °C above pre-industrial levels, have drawn much attention from the scientific community. However, there is a remaining gap to distinguish regional climate responses in these two most typical pathways, i.e., transient and stabilization simulations, toward specific warming levels. In this study, we discern the East Asia summer monsoon (EASM) responses between these two types of simulations at low-warming targets, based on the fully coupled community Earth system model (CESM). The two types of responses display a similar increase pattern in the EASM precipitation. However, the quantitative differences between these two types of responses are as large as those between the 1.5 °C and 2 °C warming scenarios. The moist budget analysis reveals that the EASM precipitation differences are mainly caused by the thermodynamic, dynamic, and transient eddy effects. Specifically, the thermodynamic effect contributes to the precipitation increment in the coastal area of East Asia in both types of responses, with the enhanced low-level specific humidity. The dynamic contribution shows tripolar and bipolar patterns in East Asia in the transient and stabilization responses, respectively. Remarkably, the transient eddy effect contribution emerges only in the stabilization responses. Further, we reveal the dominant role of the East Asian subtropical jet (EASJ) in determining the contributions from dynamic and transient eddy effects. The changes in the EASJ's position and intensity are greatly regulated by the temperature change patterns at the mid-high levels in response to different greenhouse gas emission pathways. Our study highlights the differences between transient and stabilization climate states on a regional scale. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Highlights from the article: Moreover, a number of studies in recent years have drawn attention to the increasing intensity of heavy rainfall events, heat waves, and severe droughts in monsoon regions. It is imperative that scientists who study monsoon circulations improve the prediction of their start date or onset, the monsoon intensity, and how these variables respond to climate change. The 16 papers in this volume cover several regional monsoons including East Asia, South Asia and the South China Sea, Australian monsoon, and African Monsoon.

The Ural blocking (UB) high is a weather system closely related to the cold air process during winter, which could trigger extreme cold events in East Asia. By retrieving five single blocking indexes, including accumulation frequency, central latitude, blocking intensity, mean duration and north rim, it is found that the UB in winter occurs more frequently, grows stronger, lasts longer and is located more northward after 2002, compared with 1985–2001. In order to describe the UB comprehensively, a new comprehensive blocking index (CBI) is developed based on the above five blocking indexes. The CBI can also reflect the interdecadal change of UB synthetically. Analysis on the corresponding atmospheric circulation shows that the relationship between the UB and atmospheric circulation, such as the polar vortex and jet, is closer in 2002–2018 than in 1985–2001. Compared with the atmospheric circulation in 1985–2001, the most prominent feature in 2002–2018 is that the intensity of the polar vortex is weaker at 100 hPa, and that the subtropical jet moves northward. Meanwhile, the East Asian trough downstream of the Urals deepens at 500 hPa and the Siberian high strengthens, indicating that the East Asia winter monsoon is stronger during 2002–2018. Further analysis on atmospheric waves and baroclinicity demonstrates that the meridional circulation of planetary waves strengthens, especially the 2-waves, which may increase the frequency of the UB and shift its location northward after 2002. Additionally, the baroclinicity ( − ∂ T / ∂ y ) in the mid-high latitudes is weakened during winter since 2002, which is also beneficial for the establishment of meridional circulation, causing a stronger intensity and longer duration of the UB. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The intraseasonal variations of summer precipitation anomalies in the Meiyu area of East Asia are analyzed by applying a combined empirical orthogonal function (CEOF) of the latest meteorological reanalysis data ERA5 of European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts for the period from 1991 to 2020, and the circulation structures and sources of variability of CEOF are also investigated. The first mode of the intraseasonal variations shows an in-phase pattern over the Meiyu area in June, July, and August, accounting for 22.2% of the total variance in the intraseasonal variations of summer precipitation anomalies. The positive (negative) CEOF1 is accompanied by the negative (positive) East Asia/Pacific pattern, including strong westerly wind anomalies in the upper troposphere and southwest monsoon in the lower troposphere, and the Western Pacific Subtropical High extending westward and its ridge line slightly south. The positive CEOF1 is preceded by decay of El Niño episodes, including the abnormal warm sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) in the equatorial Central-Eastern Pacific in spring and warm SSTAs in the equatorial Indian Ocean in summer. The second mode shows an opposite precipitation anomaly in June and July, and the distribution in August is not significant. The corresponding geopotential height circulation of positive CEOF2 shows the large negative anomaly in the region north of 40° N and a positive anomaly over Japan in June, whereas the pattern reverses in July. At the same time, there is a radical reversion from abnormal eastly to westly wind in the upper troposphere. The structure of CEOF2 is somewhat induced by local SSTAs over the Northern Indian Ocean and South China Sea. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The rapid economic development in East Asia has led to serious air pollution problems in the near-surface layer. Studies have shown that there is an interaction between air pollution and the East Asian upper-level jet, which is an important weather system controlling the climate in East Asia. Therefore, it is of great significance to study the relationship between the surface layer air pollutants and the upper-level jet stream in East Asia. Based on the daily wind and vertical velocity data provided by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research as well as the surface pollutant and meteorological variable data provided by the Science Data Bank, we use statistical analysis methods to study the relationship between the East Asian upper-level jet and the high-concentration area of near-surface air pollutants in summer. Meanwhile, the mechanisms of the interaction are preliminarily discussed. The results show that the North China Plain and the Tarim Basin are the high-value areas of the particulate matter (PM) in summer during 2013–2018, and the ozone (O3) concentration in the near-surface atmospheric layer in the North China Plain is also high. The average concentrations of the PM2.5, PM10 and O3 in the North China Plain are 45.09, 70.28 and 131.27 μg·m−3, respectively, and the days with the concentration exceeding the standard reach 401, 461 and 488, respectively. During this period, there is an increasing trend in the O3 concentration and a decreasing trend in the PM concentration. The average ratio of the PM2.5 to PM10 is approximately 0.65 with a decreasing trend. The air pollutant concentration in this region has a significant relationship with the location of the East Asian upper-level jet. The low wind speed at the surface level under the control of the upper-level jet is the main reason for the high pollutant concentration besides the pollutant emission. They relate to each other through the surface humidity and the meridional and zonal wind. Meanwhile, the concentrations of the PM2.5 and PM10 are high in the near-surface layer in the Tarim Basin, and the average concentrations are 45.19 and 49.08 μg·m−3, respectively. The days with the concentration exceeding the standard are 265 and 193, respectively. The interannual variation in the PM concentration shows an increasing trend first and then a decreasing trend. The average ratio of PM2.5 to PM10 in this region reaches approximately 0.9. The ratio reaches the highest in 2013 and 2014 and then decreases to and maintains at approximately 0.85. The concentration of air pollutants in the basin has a significant relationship with the intensity of the upper-level jet in East Asia. The weakening of the upper-level jet will lead to a decrease in the surface humidity in the northern part of the basin, an increase in the surface temperature in the western part of the basin and a decrease in the surface zonal wind in the eastern part of the basin, which will result in a higher PM concentration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

El Niño events vary from case to case with different decaying paces. In this study, we demonstrate that the different El Niño decaying paces have distinct impacts on the East Asian monsoon circulation pattern during post-El Niño summers. For fast decaying (FD) El Niño summers, a large-scale anomalous anticyclone dominates over East Asia and the North Pacific from subtropical to mid-latitude; whereas, the East Asian monsoon circulation display a dipole pattern with anomalous northern cyclone and southern anticyclone for slow decaying (SD) El Niño summers. The difference in anomalous East Asian monsoon circulation patterns was closely associated with the sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly patterns in the tropics. In FD El Niño summers, the cold SST anomalies in the tropical central-eastern Pacific and warm SST anomalies in the Maritime Continent induce the anticyclone anomalies over the Northwest Pacific. In contrast, the warm Kelvin wave anchored over the tropical Indian Ocean during SD El Niño summers plays a crucial role in sustaining the anticyclone anomalies over the Northwest Pacific. In particular, the opposite atmospheric circulation anomaly patterns over Northeast Asia and the mid-latitude North Pacific are mainly modulated by the stationary Rossby wave trains triggered by the opposite SST anomalies in the tropical eastern Pacific during FD and SD El Niño summers. Finally, the effect of distinct summer monsoon circulation patterns associated with the El Niño decay pace on the summer climate over East Asia are also discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The prediction skill for the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) has been analyzed, using the observations and different climate models that participate in the APEC Climate Center (APCC) multi-model ensemble (MME) seasonal forecast. The authors first examined the characteristics of the existing EAWM indices to find a suitable index for the APCC seasonal forecast system. This examination revealed that the selected index shows reasonable prediction skill of EAWM intensity and well-represents the characteristics of wintertime temperature anomalies associated with the EAWM, especially for the extreme cold winters. Although most models capture the main characteristics of the seasonal mean circulation over East Asia reasonably well, they still suffer from difficulty in predicting the interannual variability (IAV) of the EAWM. Fortunately, the POAMA has reasonable skill in capturing the timing and strength of the EAWM IAV and reproduces the EAWM-related circulation anomalies well. The better performance of the POAMA may be attributed to the better skill in simulating the high-latitude forcing including the Siberian High (SH) and Artic Oscillation (AO) and the strong links of the ENSO to the EAWM, compared to other models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The occurrence of wintertime cold surges (CSs) over East Asia is largely controlled by the surface air temperature (SAT) distribution at high latitudes and thermal advection in the lower troposphere. The thermodynamic background state over northeastern Asia is associated with the strength of the East Asian winter monsoon and the variation of Arctic Oscillation. This study assesses the importance of the SAT structure with thermal advection in determining the frequency of CS occurrences over East Asia through the analysis of nine atmosphere–ocean coupled global climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5. The historical simulations can reproduce the observed typical characteristics of CS development. On the basis of this model performance, ensemble-averaged future simulations under the representative concentration pathway 8.5 project a reduction in CS frequency by 1.1 yr−1 in the late 21st century (2065–2095) compared to the present-day period (1975–2005). The major reason for less frequent CSs in the future is the weakened cold advection, caused by notable SAT warming over the northern part of East Asia. These results suggest that changes in the meridional SAT structure and the associated changes in thermal advection would play a more substantial role than local warming in determining future changes in the frequency of CS occurrences over East Asia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]