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Based on C-band weather radar and ground precipitation data from the Helan Mountain area in Yinchuan between 2017 to 2020, we evaluated the forecasting performances of 15 mainstream deep learning models used in recent years, including recurrent-based and recurrent-free models. The critical success index (CSI), probability of detection (POD), false alarm rate (FAR), mean square error (MSE), mean absolute error (MAE), and learned perceptual image patch similarity (LPIPS), were used to evaluate the forecasting abilities. The results showed that (1) recurrent-free models have significant parameter quantity and computing power advantages, especially the SimVP model. Among the recurrent-based models, PredRNN and PredRNN++ demonstrate good predictive capabilities for changes in echolocation and intensity, PredRNN++ performs better in predicting long sequences (1 h); (2) SimVP uses Inception to extract temporal features, which cannot capture the complex physical changes in radar echo images and fails to extract spatial–temporal correlations and accurately predict heavy rainfall areas effectively. Therefore, we constructed the SimVP-GMA model, replacing the temporal prediction module in SimVP and modifying the spatial encoder part. Compared with SimVP, the MSE and LPIPS indicators were improved by 0.55 and 0.0193, respectively. It can be seen from the forecast images that the forecast details have been significantly improved, especially in the forecasting of heavy rainfall weather. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, the nowcast models provided by the Python pySTEPS library were evaluated using radar derived rain rate data and the satellite product Split-Window Difference (SWD) based on GOES-16 data, focusing on central Mexico. Initially, we obtained a characterization of the rainfall that occurred in the region using the radar rain rate and the SWD. Subsequently the nowcasts were evaluated using both variables. Two nowcast models were employed from pySTEPS: Extrapolation and S-PROG. The results indicate that average SWD is below 2.5 K, 90 min before the onset of rainfall events, and, on average, the SWD is 2 K during rainfall events. The results from both nowcast models were accurate and produced similar results. The nowcasts performed better when SWD data were used as input, having an average Probability of Detection (PoD) above 70% and a False Alarm Rate (FAR) reaching 40% for the 15-min prediction. The nowcasts were less accurate using the radar rain rate as input for the 15-min forecast, where the PoD was maximum 70% and FAR reaching 40%. However, these nowcasts were more reliable during well-organized precipitation events. In this work, it was determined that the nowcast models provided by pySTEPS can provide valuable rain forecasts using GOES-16 satellite and radar data for the central Mexico region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Three facts characterise the hailstorm of 30 August 2022 in the Catalan village of La Bisbal d'Empordà and its surroundings: first, the most dramatic, the death of a child hit by a hailstone; second, the damage to most of the roofs and cars in the town; finally, the highest recorded amount of hail (more than 10 cm) in Catalonia in at least the last 30 years. This research focuses on the radar field comparison and the observations provided by an electronic survey of the study area. The results reveal that weather radar underestimated the hail size because of different factors. Conversely, some reporters provided an inaccurate hour. The difference of three months between the hail event and the electronic survey is the probable cause of this mistake in the time estimation. However, the survey delay helped to avoid answers with larger hail sizes than those provided by the official spotters. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The change in raindrop spectrum characteristics is an important factor affecting the accuracy of estimations of precipitation. The in-depth study of raindrop spectrum characteristics is of great interest for understanding precipitation process and improving quantitative radar precipitation estimation. In this paper, the raindrop size distributions at Longli (57913), Puding (57808) and Luodian (57916) stations in Guizhou were analyzed from the perspective of precipitation microphysical characteristics. The results showed that the raindrop size distribution was different among different regions. The correlation coefficients of the mass-weighted average diameter for the rain intensities at these three stations were 46.89%, 49.51%, and 47.03%, respectively, which were slightly lower than the normal correlation coefficients of the average volume diameter for the rain intensities: 67.80%, 71.28%, and 71.46%, respectively. Based on the data from the Guiyang weather radar, raindrop spectrometer, and automatic rain gauge, the dynamic Z-I relationship method and the LSTM neural network method were used to estimate precipitation. The correlation coefficients of the dynamic Z-I relationship method and the LSTM neural network method at the three stations studied were 0.8432, 0.7763, and 0.8658 and 0.8745, 0.9125, and 0.8676, respectively. Regarding the process of stratiform cloud precipitation, the correlation coefficients of the dynamic Z-I relationship method and LSTM neural network method at the three stations were 0.6933, 0.0902, and 0.1409 and 0.7114, 0.4984, and 0.4902, respectively. In the estimation of cumulative precipitation for 45 days from 1 July to 16 August 2020, the relative errors of the neural network estimation at the three stations were −4.25%, −11.35%, and −8.68% and the relative errors of the dynamic Z-I relationship estimation were −2.68%, −7.41%, and −21.23%, respectively. The final relative error of the neural network was slightly worse than that of the dynamic Z-I relationship in the cumulative precipitation estimations of Longli station and Puding station, but the overall correlation coefficients of the LSTM neural network method were better than those of the dynamic Z-I relationship method. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Short-term extrapolation by weather radar observations is one of the main tools for making weather forecasts. Recently, deep learning has been gradually applied to radar extrapolation techniques, achieving significant results. However, for radar echo images containing strong convective systems, it is difficult to obtain high-quality results with long-term extrapolation. Additionally, there are few attempts and discussions to incorporate environmental factors governing the occurrence and development of convective storms into the training process. To demonstrate the positive effect of environmental factors on radar echo extrapolation tasks, this paper designs a three-dimensional convolutional neural network. The paper outlines the processing steps for matching radar echo images with environmental data in the spatio–temporal dimension. Additionally, it develops an experimental study on the effectiveness of seven physical elements and their combinations in improving the quality of radar echo extrapolation. Furthermore, a loss function is adopted to guide the training process of the model to pay more attention to strong convective systems. The quantitative statistical evaluation shows the critical success index (CSI) of our model's prediction is improved by 3.42% (threshold = 40 dBZ) and 2.35% (threshold = 30 dBZ) after incorporating specific environmental field data. Two representative cases indicate that environmental factors provide essential information about convective systems, especially in predicting the birth, extinction, merging, and splitting of convective cells. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The rescaling of rainfall requires measurements of rainfall rates over many dimensions. This paper develops one approach using 10 m vertical spatial observations of the Doppler spectra of falling rain every 10 s over intervals varying from 15 up to 41 min in two different locations and in two different years using two different micro-rain radars (MRR). The transformation of the temporal domain into spatial observations uses the Taylor "frozen" turbulence hypothesis to estimate an average advection speed over an entire observation interval. Thus, when no other advection estimates are possible, this paper offers a new approach for estimating the appropriate frozen turbulence advection speed by minimizing power spectral differences between the ensemble of purely spatial radial power spectra observed at all times in the vertical and those using the ensemble of temporal spectra at all heights to yield statistically reliable scaling relations. Thus, it is likely that MRR and other vertically pointing Doppler radars may often help to obviate the need for expensive and immobile large networks of instruments in order to determine such scaling relations but not the need of those radars for surveillance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Three-body scatter spike (TBSS) is one of the most common signatures associated with hailstorms using weather radar. It consists of an appendage appearing behind the storms in the radar imagery. The cause is the multi-scattering between hail particles and the ground. The TBSS is detected in plan position indicator (PPI) reflectivity fields at the elevation coinciding with the hail core. Surveillance staff usually analyzes low-level PPI in real-time, but the signature can appear at mid or high elevations. This study takes advantage of the three-dimensional maximum reflectivity (MAX) product for detecting the presence of the TBSS in thunderstorms more easily, instead of the usual way of analyzing the PPI fields. The new technique is more direct and immediate, crucial in real-time surveillance tasks. This preliminary analysis has focused on the hail days with ground registers that occurred in Catalonia between January and August of 2022, observing this signature in the MAX product in 96% of days with large hail and 72% of small hail events. This fact indicates that MAX can be useful for identifying large hail in thunderstorms, but the efficiency decreases for hail smaller than 2 cm. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study presents the algorithm ACTION, defined as automatic center detection of tropical cyclone (TC) using image processing based on the operational radar network. Based on the high visibility of weather radar imagery, a TC's motion vector is calculated from the continuous image change using optical flow, producing the TC's rotation center. The algorithm performance was verified by analyzing the typhoons (TCs in the northwestern Pacific) that affected the Korean Peninsula from 2018–2021, demonstrating a high detection rate of 80.8% within an error distance of 40 km against the best track of the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA). The detection rate was 100% for typhoons with temporally consistent morphological characteristics. ACTION automatically generates TC center information upon the TC's initial entry inside the observation radius even in the absence of uniform radar data. As ACTION is capable of performing real-time calculations that are directly applied to rapidly generated weather radar images, it is currently being utilized by the KMA. The high temporal resolution TC center information calculated through ACTION is expected to improve the efficiency of TC forecasting. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In radar quantitative precipitation estimates (QPE), the progressive evolution of rainfall algorithms has been guided by attempts to reduce the uncertainties in rainfall retrieval. However, because most of the algorithms are based on the linear dependence between radar and rain variables and designed for rain rates ranging from light to moderate rainfall, they result in misleading estimations of intense or strong rainfall rates. In this paper, based on extensive data gathered during the AMMA and Megha-Tropiques data campaigns, we provided a way to improve the estimation of intense rainfall rates from radar measurements. To this end, we designed a formulation of the QPE algorithm that accounts for the co-dependency between radar observables and rainfall rate using copula simulation synthetic datasets and using the quantile regression features for a more complete picture of covariate effects. The results show a clear improvement in heavy rainfall retrieval from radar data using copula-based R(KDP) algorithms derived from a realistic simulated dataset. For a better performance, Gaussian copula-derived algorithms require a 0.8 percentile distribution to be considered. Conversely, lower percentiles are better for Student's, Gumbel and HRT copula estimators when retrieving heavy rainfall rates (R > 30). This highlights the need to investigate the entire conditional distribution to determine the performance of radar rainfall estimators. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, a dual-polarization weather radar echo signal simulation method is proposed for the evaluation of the performance enhancement of dual-polarization weather radar systems, the optimization of signal processing algorithms and the improvement of scanning strategies. The actual weather radar base data are used in the simulation as the reference weather scene, which avoids using a complex algorithm for weather modeling. Moreover, based on radar weather equations, the radar system parameters are added into the radar echo signal modeling to establish the relationship between the simulated echo signal and radar system. As a result, the final simulated echo signal not only shows both the time and frequency domain characteristics of the weather target, but also includes the effects of the important performance of the dual-polarization weather radar system. In addition, to evaluate the performance of range ambiguity mitigation using phase coding and batch working modes, two different simulation methods for the radar signal are established on the method above; one is for batch working mode with long-PRT (pulse repetition time) and short-PRT transmission and receiving, and the other is for phase-coded mode with phase-coded transmission and phase-uncoded receiving. Under the same weather scene, the observation of these two different methods of range ambiguity mitigation are simulated and compared. Results show that the performance of the phase coding mode for mitigating range ambiguity is better than that of the batch mode. Obviously, the simulation method can be used to directly show the observation of different algorithms for mitigation range ambiguity under the same weather process, and quickly compare and evaluate the algorithm's performance, which is not possible for real radars. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The echo of weather radar is seriously disturbed by clear-air turbulence echo (CAT) which needs identifying and eliminating to improve the data quality of weather radar. Using the data observed with the five X-band dual polarimetric radars in Changping, Fangshan, Miyun, Shunyi, and Tongzhou, Beijing in 2018, the probability density distribution (PDD) of the horizontal texture of four radar moments reflectively factor (ZH), differential reflectivity (ZDR), correlation coefficient (ρHV), differential propagation phase shift (ΦDP), and then the CAT is identified and removed using Bayesian method. The results show that the radar data can be effectively improved after the CAT has been eliminated, which include: (1) the removal rate of CAT is more than 98.2% in the analyzed cases. (2) In the area with high-frequency distribution of CAT, the CAT can be effectively suppressed; in the area with low-frequency distribution, some weather echo in the edge with SNR < 15 dB may be mistakenly identified as CAT, but the proportion of meteorological echoes to the total echoes is more than 85%, which indicate that the error rate is very low and does not affect the radar operation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cost-efficient single-polarized X-band radars are a feasible alternative due to their high sensitivity and resolution, which makes them well suited for complex precipitation patterns. The first horizontal scanning weather radar in Peru was installed in Piura in 2019, after the devastating impact of the 2017 coastal El Niño. To obtain a calibrated rain rate from radar reflectivity, we employ a modified empirical approach and draw a direct comparison to a well-established machine learning technique used for radar QPE. For both methods, preprocessing steps are required, such as clutter and noise elimination, atmospheric, geometric, and precipitation-induced attenuation correction, and hardware variations. For the new empirical approach, the corrected reflectivity is related to rain gauge observations, and a spatially and temporally variable parameter set is iteratively determined. The machine learning approach uses a set of features mainly derived from the radar data. The random forest (RF) algorithm employed here learns from the features and builds decision trees to obtain quantitative precipitation estimates for each bin of detected reflectivity. Both methods capture the spatial variability of rainfall quite well. Validating the empirical approach, it performed better with an overall linear regression slope of 0.65 and r of 0.82. The RF approach had limitations with the quantitative representation (slope = 0.44 and r = 0.65), but it more closely matches the reflectivity distribution, and it is independent of real-time rain-gauge data. Possibly, a weighted mean of both approaches can be used operationally on a daily basis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]