Search

Atmospheric drag stands out as the predominant non-gravitational force acting on satellites in Low Earth Orbit (LEO), with altitudes below 2000 km. This drag exhibits a strong dependence on the thermospheric mass density (TMD), a parameter of vital significance in the realms of orbit determination, prediction, collision avoidance, and re-entry forecasting. A multitude of empirical TMD models have been developed, incorporating contemporary data sources, including TMD measurements obtained through onboard accelerometers on LEO satellites. This paper delves into three different TMD modelling techniques, specifically, Fourier series, spherical harmonics, and artificial neural networks (ANNs), during periods of geomagnetic quiescence. The TMD data utilised for modelling and evaluation are derived from three distinct LEO satellites: GOCE (at an altitude of approximately 250 km), CHAMP (around 400 km), and GRACE (around 500 km), spanning the years 2002 to 2013. The consistent utilisation of these TMD data sets allows for a clear performance assessment of the different modelling approaches. Subsequent research will shift its focus to TMD modelling during geomagnetic disturbances, while the present work can serve as a foundation for disentangling TMD variations stemming from geomagnetic activity. Furthermore, this study undertakes precise TMD modelling during geomagnetic quiescence using data obtained from the GRACE (at an altitude of approximately 500 km), CHAMP (around 400 km), and GOCE (roughly 250 km) satellites, covering the period from 2002 to 2013. It employs three distinct methods, namely Fourier analysis, spherical harmonics (SH) analysis, and the artificial neural network (ANN) technique, which are subsequently compared to identify the most suitable methodology for TMD modelling. Additionally, various combinations of time and coordinate representations are scrutinised within the context of TMD modelling. Our results show that the precision of low-order Fourier-based models can be enhanced by up to 10 % through the utilisation of geocentric solar magnetic coordinates. Both the Fourier- and SH-based models exhibit limitations in approximating the vertical gradient of TMD. Conversely, the ANN-based model possesses the capacity to capture vertical TMD variability without manifesting sensitivity to variations in time and coordinate inputs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Precise regional ionospheric total electron content (TEC) models play a crucial role in correcting ionospheric delays for single-frequency receivers and studying variations in the Earth's space environment. A particle swarm optimization neural network (PSO-NN)-based model for ionospheric TEC over China has been developed using a long-term (2008–2021) ground-based global positioning system (GPS), COSMIC, and Fengyun data under geomagnetic quiet conditions. In this study, a spatial gridding approach is utilized to propose an improved version of the PSO-NN model, named the PSO-NN-GRID. The root-mean-square error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE) of the TECs estimated from the PSO-NN-GRID model on the test data set are 3.614 and 2.257 TECU, respectively, which are 7.5% and 5.5% smaller than those of the PSO-NN model. The improvements of the PSO-NN-GRID model over the PSO-NN model during the equinox, summer, and winter of 2015 are 0.4–22.1%, 0.1–12.8%, and 0.2–26.2%, respectively. Similarly, in 2019, the corresponding improvements are 0.5–13.6%, 0–10.1%, and 0–16.1%, respectively. The performance of the PSO-NN-GRID model is also verified under different solar activity conditions. The results reveal that the RMSEs for the TECs estimated by the PSO-NN-GRID model, with F10.7 values ranging within [0, 80), [80, 100), [100, 130), [130, 160), [160, 190), [190, 220), and [220, +), are, respectively, 1.0%, 2.8%, 4.7%, 5.5%, 10.1%, 9.1%, and 28.4% smaller than those calculated by the PSO-NN model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The restored interest now receives renewable energy due to the global decline in greenhouse gas emanations and fossil fuel combustion. The fasted growing energy source, wind energy generation, is recognized as a clean energy source that has grown fast and is used extensively in wind power-producing facilities. This study's short-term wind speed estimations are made using a multivariate model based on an artificial neural network (ANN) that combines several local measurements, including wind speed, wind direction, LV active power, and theoretical power curve. The dataset was received from Turkey's SCADA system at 10-min intervals, and the actual data validated the expected performance. The research took wind speed into account as an input parameter and created a multivariate model. To perform prediction outcomes on time series data, an algorithm such as an artificial neural network (ANN) is utilized. The experiment verdicts reveal that the ANN algorithm produces reliable predicting results when metrics like 0.693 for MSE, 0.833 for RMSE and 0.96 for R-squared or Co-efficient of determination are considered. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ionospheric delay has a severe effect on reducing the accuracy of positioning and navigation of single-frequency receivers. Therefore, it is necessary to construct a precise regional ionospheric model for real-time Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) applications. The total electron contents (TECs) of 839 GNSS stations affiliated with the GPS Earth Observation Network were used to build a Japanese ionospheric model (JIM) based on a multi-layer perceptron neural network. During quiet space conditions, the correlation coefficient between the targets and the predictions of the JIM was about 0.98, and the root-mean square error (RMSE) of TEC residuals was ~1.5TECU, while under severe space events, the correlation coefficient increased to 0.99, and the corresponding RMSE dropped to 0.96 TECU. Moreover, the JIM model successfully reconstructed the two-dimensional (time vs latitude) TEC maps, and the TEC maps had evident hourly and seasonal variations. Most of TEC residuals accumulated between universal time 01–06 with an averaged magnitude of 1-2TECU. Furthermore, the JIM model had a perfect prediction performance under various kinds of complex space environments. In the quiet days, the prediction accuracy of the JIM was nearly equal to the global ionosphere map (GIM), and in some moments, the JIM was more competitive than the GIM. In the disturbed days, the RMSEs of TEC residuals were proportional to the solar wind speed and were inversely proportional to the geomagnetic Dst value. The maximum RMSE of the JIM was lower than 2TECU, while the corresponding RMSEs for the IRI and TIE-GCM exceeded 5TECU. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Modelling drought is vital to water resources management, particularly in arid areas, to reduce its effects. Drought severity and frequency are significantly influenced by climate change. In this study, a novel hybrid methodology was built, data preprocessing and artificial neural network (ANN) combined with the constriction coefficient-based particle swarm optimisation and chaotic gravitational search algorithm (CPSOCGSA), to forecast standard precipitation index (SPI) based on climatic factors. Additionally, the marine predators algorithm (MPA) and the slime mould algorithm (SMA) were used to validate the performance of the CPSOCGSA algorithm. Climatic factors data from 1990 to 2020 were employed to create and evaluate the SPI 1, SPI 3, and SPI 6 models for Al-Kut City, Iraq. The results indicated that data preprocessing methods improve data quality and find the best predictors scenario. The performance of CPSOCGSA-ANN is better than MPA-ANN and SMA-ANN algorithms based on various statistical criteria (i.e., R2, MAE, and RMSE). The proposed methodology yield R2 = 0.93, 0.93, and 0.88 for SPI 1, SPI 3, and SPI 6, respectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurate, timely air quality index (AQI) forecasting helps industries in selecting the most suitable air pollution control measures and the public in reducing harmful exposure to pollution. This article proposes a comprehensive method to forecast AQIs. Initially, the work focused on predicting hourly ambient concentrations of PM2.5 and PM10 using artificial neural networks. Once the method was developed, the work was extended to the prediction of other criteria pollutants, i.e., O3, SO2, NO2, and CO, which fed into the process of estimating AQI. The prediction of the AQI not only requires the selection of a robust forecasting model, it also heavily relies on a sequence of pre-processing steps to select predictors and handle different issues in data, including gaps. The presented method dealt with this by imputing missing entries using missForest, a machine learning-based imputation technique which employed the random forest (RF) algorithm. Unlike the usual practice of using RF at the final forecasting stage, we utilized RF at the data pre-processing stage, i.e., missing data imputation and feature selection, and we obtained promising results. The effectiveness of this imputation method was examined against a linear imputation method for the six criteria pollutants and the AQI. The proposed approach was validated against ambient air quality observations for Al-Jahra, a major city in Kuwait. Results obtained showed that models trained using missForest-imputed data could generalize AQI forecasting and with a prediction accuracy of 92.41% when tested on new unseen data, which is better than earlier findings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Owing to the complexity of the climate system and limitations of numerical dynamical models, machine learning based on big data has been used for climate forecasting in recent years. In this study, we attempted to use an artificial neural network (ANN) for summer precipitation forecasts in the Yangtze-Huaihe River Basin (YHRB), eastern China. The major ANN employed here is the standard backpropagation neural network (BPNN), which was modified for application to the YHRB. Using the analysis data of precipitation and the predictors/factors of atmospheric circulation and sea surface temperature, we calculated the correlation coefficients between precipitation and the factors. In addition, we sorted the top six factors for precipitation forecasts. In order to obtain accurate forecasts, month (factor)-to-month (precipitation) forecast models were applied over the training and validation periods (i.e., summer months over 1979–2011 and 2012–2019, respectively). We compared the standard BPNN with the BPNN using a genetic algorithm-based backpropagation (GABP), support vector machine (SVM) and multiple linear regression (MLR) for the summer precipitation forecast after the model training period, and found that the GABP method is the best among the above methods for precipitation forecasting, with a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of approximately 20% for the YHRB, which is substantially lower than the BPNN, SVM and MLR values. We then selected the best summer precipitation forecast of the GABP month-to-month models by summing up monthly precipitation, in order to obtain the summer scale forecast, which presents a very successful performance in terms of evaluation measures. For example, the basin-averaged MAPE and anomaly rate reach 4.7% and 88.3%, respectively, for the YHRB, which can be a good recommendation for future operational services. It appears that sea surface temperatures (SST) in some key areas dominate the factors for the forecasts. These results indicate the potential of applying GABP to summer precipitation forecasts in the YHRB. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]