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The Three-Rivers Headwater Region (TRHR), located in the hinterland of the Tibetan Plateau, serves as the “Water Tower of China”, providing vital water conservation (WC) services. Understanding the variations in WC is crucial for locally tailored efforts to adapt to climate change. This study improves the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs (InVEST) water yield model by integrating long-term time series of vegetation data, emphasizing the role of interannual vegetation variation. This study also analyzes the influences of various factors on WC variations. The results show a significant increase in WC from 1991 to 2020 (1.4 mm/yr, p < 0.05), with 78.17% of the TRHR showing improvement. Precipitation is the primary factor driving the interannual variations in WC. Moreover, distinct interactions play dominant roles in WC across different eco-geographical regions. In the north-central and western areas, the interaction between annual precipitation and potential evapotranspiration has the highest influence. Conversely, the interaction between annual precipitation and vegetation has the greatest impact in the eastern and central-southern areas. This study provides valuable insights into the complex interactions between the land and atmosphere of the TRHR, which are crucial for enhancing the stability of the ecosystem.

Under climate change, river ecological base flow becomes particularly critical for the health and stability of inland river ecosystems in arid regions. Taking three typical seasonal inland rivers, including the Kriya River, the Niya River, and the Qarqan River, all on the northern slope of the Kunlun Mountains, as research objects, meteorological data from 1958 to 2019 and hydrological data from 1978 to 2014 were selected to analyze the characteristics of ecological base flow under climate change. The results show that in the past 60 years, the temperature in the Kriya River, Niya River, and Qarqan River basins has warmed at rates of 0.235 °C•(10a)−1, 0.223 °C•(10a)−1, and 0.177 °C•(10a)−1, respectively, while the precipitation has increased at the rates of 0.88 mm•(10a)−1, 3.90 mm•(10a)−1, and 7.92 mm•(10a)−1. The Tennant method was determined as the best algorithm for ecological base flow of inland rivers in arid regions. The interannual maximum values of ecological base flow all occurred in 2010, with three rivers increasing by 5.098 m3·s−1, 2.416 m3·s−1, and 11.343 m3·s−1 respectively, and the regional average increasing by 6.286 m3·s−1. The maximum ecological base flow within the year is in July, and the minimum value is in January, with a high proportion of the flood season. The monthly ecological base flow of rivers has a strong correlation with the monthly temperature and precipitation, with the strongest correlation in the Qarqan River basin and the correlation coefficients of 0.876 and 0.917. We propose ecological base flow guarantee objectives for the three rivers during the dry season, and clarify that the flood season is the key point of ecological base flow guarantee. The guarantee objectives are 0.974 m3·s−1, 0.154 m3·s−1, and 2.167 m3·s−1, for the three rivers, respectively. Our research results can provide scientific reference for the management and regulation of water resources and ecological protection of the northern slope of the Kunlun Mountains.

The Three-Rivers Headwater Region (TRHR), located in the hinterland of the Tibetan Plateau, serves as the "Water Tower of China", providing vital water conservation (WC) services. Understanding the variations in WC is crucial for locally tailored efforts to adapt to climate change. This study improves the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs (InVEST) water yield model by integrating long-term time series of vegetation data, emphasizing the role of interannual vegetation variation. This study also analyzes the influences of various factors on WC variations. The results show a significant increase in WC from 1991 to 2020 (1.4 mm/yr, p < 0.05), with 78.17% of the TRHR showing improvement. Precipitation is the primary factor driving the interannual variations in WC. Moreover, distinct interactions play dominant roles in WC across different eco-geographical regions. In the north-central and western areas, the interaction between annual precipitation and potential evapotranspiration has the highest influence. Conversely, the interaction between annual precipitation and vegetation has the greatest impact in the eastern and central-southern areas. This study provides valuable insights into the complex interactions between the land and atmosphere of the TRHR, which are crucial for enhancing the stability of the ecosystem. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The climate is becoming warmer and more humid in the inland area of northwestern China. In addition, human activities have changed the underlying surface of the river basin, and the instability of the runoff changes has intensified. As a component of river runoff, the base flow reflects the impacts of climate change and human activities. Therefore, it is necessary to carry out research on the change in the base flow and its influencing factors in the context of climate change and human activities. In this study, a base flow method suitable for the inland rivers in northwestern China was assessed, and the variation rules and influencing factors of the base flow were analyzed. The results reveal that since the 1980s, the base flow of the Hexi inland rivers has exhibited an increasing trend, and the growth rate has exhibited the following order: western > central > eastern. The Base Flow Index (the proportion of the base flow to the total runoff in a period) values are in the range of 0.45–0.65. Overall, the change in the base flow of the Hexi inland rivers is the result of the coupling of climate factors and land-use change. The influence of land-use change on the base flow of the Hexi inland rivers gradually weakens from east to west, except for the Xiying River, while the influence of climate change gradually increases. The contribution rates of land-use change to the base flow in the eastern, central, and western regions were 75%, 55%, and 27%. Temperature and precipitation are the main climate factors affecting the change in the base flow in the western and central regions, respectively.

Under climate change, river ecological base flow becomes particularly critical for the health and stability of inland river ecosystems in arid regions. Taking three typical seasonal inland rivers, including the Kriya River, the Niya River, and the Qarqan River, all on the northern slope of the Kunlun Mountains, as research objects, meteorological data from 1958 to 2019 and hydrological data from 1978 to 2014 were selected to analyze the characteristics of ecological base flow under climate change. The results show that in the past 60 years, the temperature in the Kriya River, Niya River, and Qarqan River basins has warmed at rates of 0.235 °C•(10a)−1, 0.223 °C•(10a)−1, and 0.177 °C•(10a)−1, respectively, while the precipitation has increased at the rates of 0.88 mm•(10a)−1, 3.90 mm•(10a)−1, and 7.92 mm•(10a)−1. The Tennant method was determined as the best algorithm for ecological base flow of inland rivers in arid regions. The interannual maximum values of ecological base flow all occurred in 2010, with three rivers increasing by 5.098 m3·s−1, 2.416 m3·s−1, and 11.343 m3·s−1 respectively, and the regional average increasing by 6.286 m3·s−1. The maximum ecological base flow within the year is in July, and the minimum value is in January, with a high proportion of the flood season. The monthly ecological base flow of rivers has a strong correlation with the monthly temperature and precipitation, with the strongest correlation in the Qarqan River basin and the correlation coefficients of 0.876 and 0.917. We propose ecological base flow guarantee objectives for the three rivers during the dry season, and clarify that the flood season is the key point of ecological base flow guarantee. The guarantee objectives are 0.974 m3·s−1, 0.154 m3·s−1, and 2.167 m3·s−1, for the three rivers, respectively. Our research results can provide scientific reference for the management and regulation of water resources and ecological protection of the northern slope of the Kunlun Mountains. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper presents long-term changes in water temperature in two rivers, Oder and Neman, with catchments showing different climatic conditions (with dominance of marine climate in the case of the Oder and continental climate in the case of the Neman River). A statistically significant increase in mean annual water temperature was recorded for four observation stations, ranging from 0.17 to 0.39 °C dec−1. At the seasonal scale, for the winter half-year, water temperature increase varied from 0.17 to 0.26 °C dec−1, and for the summer half-year from 0.17 to 0.50 °C dec−1. In three cases (Odra-Brzeg, Odra-Słubice, Niemen-Grodno), the recorded changes referred to the scale of changes in air temperature. For the fourth station on Neman (Smalininkai), an increase in water temperature in the river was considerably slower than air temperature increase. It should be associated with the substantial role of local conditions (non-climatic) affecting the thermal regime in that profile. Short-term forecast of changes in water temperature showed its further successive increase, a situation unfavorable for the functioning of these ecosystems.

Analyzing trends in flood magnitude changes, and their underlying causes, under climate change, is a key challenge for the effective management of water resources in arid and semi-arid regions, particularly for inland rivers originating in the Qilian Mountains (QMs). Sen's slope estimator and the Mann–Kendall test were used to investigate the spatial and temporal trends in flood magnitude, based on the annual maximum peak discharge (AMPD) and Peaks Over Threshold magnitude (POT3M) flood series, of twelve typical rivers, from 1970 to 2021. The results showed that, in the AMPD series, 42% of the rivers had significantly decreasing trends, while 8% had significantly increasing trends; in the POT3M series, 25% of the rivers had significantly decreasing trends, while 8% had significantly increasing trends. The regional differences in the QMs from east to west were that, rivers in the eastern region (e.g., Gulang, Zamu, and Xiying rivers) showed significantly decreasing trends in the AMPD and POT3M series; most rivers in the central region had non-significant trends, while the Shule river in the western region showed a significantly increasing trend. Temperatures and precipitation showed a fluctuating increasing trend after 1987, which were the main factors contributing to the change in flood magnitude trends of the AMPD and POT3M flood series in the QMs. Regional differences in precipitation, precipitation intensity, and the ratio of glacial meltwater in the eastern, central and western regions, resulted in the differences in flood magnitude trends between the east and west. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change has a significant impact on the abiotic and biotic environment. An increase in air temperatures translates into higher temperatures of water constituting the habitat of a wide range of species. The purpose of this study is to present the direction and extent of water temperature increases in eight rivers and three lakes on a monthly and annual basis. The analysis of river water temperatures used both measured data and data reconstructed using artificial neural networks from the period of 1984–2020. The analysis of the direction and extent of changes in air and water temperatures was performed using Mann-Kandall tests and a modified Sen test. The analysis of water temperature changes was conducted against the background of climatic conditions and catchment characteristics. The results indicate that in the Warta River basin in the period of 1984–2020, the average annual temperature rise reached 0.51 °C decade−1, ranging from 0.43 to 0.61 °C decade−1. This translated into an increase in mean annual water temperatures in lakes in a range from 0.14 to 0.58 °C decade−1, and for rivers in a range from 0.10 to 0.54 °C decade−1. The greatest changes in air temperature occurred in April, June, August, September, and November. It was reflected in an increase in water temperature in lakes and rivers. However, these changes did not occur in all rivers and lakes, suggesting the role of local factors that modify the effect of climate change. The study showed that the extent of air temperature changes was significantly higher than the extent of water temperature changes in rivers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The climate is becoming warmer and more humid in the inland area of northwestern China. In addition, human activities have changed the underlying surface of the river basin, and the instability of the runoff changes has intensified. As a component of river runoff, the base flow reflects the impacts of climate change and human activities. Therefore, it is necessary to carry out research on the change in the base flow and its influencing factors in the context of climate change and human activities. In this study, a base flow method suitable for the inland rivers in northwestern China was assessed, and the variation rules and influencing factors of the base flow were analyzed. The results reveal that since the 1980s, the base flow of the Hexi inland rivers has exhibited an increasing trend, and the growth rate has exhibited the following order: western > central > eastern. The Base Flow Index (the proportion of the base flow to the total runoff in a period) values are in the range of 0.45–0.65. Overall, the change in the base flow of the Hexi inland rivers is the result of the coupling of climate factors and land-use change. The influence of land-use change on the base flow of the Hexi inland rivers gradually weakens from east to west, except for the Xiying River, while the influence of climate change gradually increases. The contribution rates of land-use change to the base flow in the eastern, central, and western regions were 75%, 55%, and 27%. Temperature and precipitation are the main climate factors affecting the change in the base flow in the western and central regions, respectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper presents long-term changes in water temperature in two rivers, Oder and Neman, with catchments showing different climatic conditions (with dominance of marine climate in the case of the Oder and continental climate in the case of the Neman River). A statistically significant increase in mean annual water temperature was recorded for four observation stations, ranging from 0.17 to 0.39 °C dec−1. At the seasonal scale, for the winter half-year, water temperature increase varied from 0.17 to 0.26 °C dec−1, and for the summer half-year from 0.17 to 0.50 °C dec−1. In three cases (Odra-Brzeg, Odra-Słubice, Niemen-Grodno), the recorded changes referred to the scale of changes in air temperature. For the fourth station on Neman (Smalininkai), an increase in water temperature in the river was considerably slower than air temperature increase. It should be associated with the substantial role of local conditions (non-climatic) affecting the thermal regime in that profile. Short-term forecast of changes in water temperature showed its further successive increase, a situation unfavorable for the functioning of these ecosystems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Heavy lake-effect snowfall (HLES) events are snowfall events enhanced by interactions between lakes and overlying cold air. Significant snowfall rates and accumulations caused during such events disrupt socioeconomic activities and sometimes lead to lethal consequences. The aim of this study is to assess projected changes to HLES by the end of the century (2079–2100) using a regional climate model for the first time with 3D representation for the Laurentian Great Lakes. When compared to observations over the 1989–2010 period, the model is able to realistically reproduce key mechanisms and characteristics of HLES events, thus increasing confidence in future projections. Projected changes to the frequency and amount of HLES suggest decreasing patterns, during the onset, active and decline phases of HLES. Despite reduced lake ice cover that will allow enhanced lake–atmosphere interactions favouring HLES, the warmer temperatures and associated increase in liquid to solid precipitation ratio along with reduced cold air outbreaks contribute to reduced HLES in the future climate. Analysis of the correlation patterns for current and future climates further supports the weaker impact of lake ice fraction on HLES in future climates. Albeit the decreases in HLES frequency and intensity and projected increases in extreme snowfall events (resulting from all mechanisms) raise concerns for impacts on the transportation, infrastructure and hydropower sectors in the region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study evaluated the long-term changes in precipitation patterns and drought conditions in one of the key recharge areas of the hydrological system of southern and southeastern Spain, namely, the Sierra de Cazorla y Segura, which contains the headwater sectors of the catchment basins of two important rivers, namely, the Guadalquivir and the Segura. The research covered a period of 70 years (1952–2021) and undertook an exhaustive analysis of data from 348 pluviometric stations. The most relevant results are as follows: (1) most areas experienced a decrease in the precipitation volume and number of rainy days during the study period; (2) summer and winter showed the most significant decreases; (3) weak and moderate precipitation (<40 mm/d) showed significant decreases in both volume and frequency, while heavy precipitation (≥40 mm/d) showed the opposite behavior; (4) the durations of dry periods increased, while the durations of wet periods decreased in most areas; and (5) the SPEI showed an increase under drought conditions. This research underscores the need for water resource management and resilience strategies with interdisciplinary relevance in the face of changing hydrological patterns. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study identified the practices of adaptation strategies to climate change in Jimma, Bedelle, Bonga, and Sokorru urban centers using a survey of 384 households, 55 key informant interviews, 4 focus group discussions, and field observations. A cross-sectional study design was employed from 2019 to 2021. The adaptive capacity of municipalities to reduce climate extreme events was rated as poor by the majority (51%), mostly reactive measures (76%). The climate hazards identified in four urban centers were riverine and flash floods, urban heat waves, landslides, and windstorms. The urban households practiced lifestyle modification, reduce paved surfaces, the use of air conditioner, planting trees, and multiple windows. The adaptation strategies practiced by municipalities include the relocation of prone areas, the support of basic amenities, the construction of protection walls, diversion ditches, the clearance of waterways and rivers, greenery, and park development. The adaptation actions were constrained by a lack of awareness, commitment, cooperation and coordination, adaptive capacity, and participation. Gray/physical infrastructures (costly but important) as adaptation actions were hampered by the low municipal capacity. We recommend that urban authorities should incorporate climate change adaptation strategies into urban planning and development proactively to ensure future resilient climate smart urban centers of southwest Ethiopia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The labor relationship developed by the Amazonian riverside dwellers is weakened due to changes in temperature, the flood pulse, the ebb tide of the rivers, and precipitation. In this context, this research aimed to evaluate the impacts of climate change on the socio-biodiversity chains in the region of Médio Juruá-Amazonas. Collections were carried out in two communities located in the Sustainable Development Reserve (RDS) Uacari, in July 2022, through participatory workshops. The communities affirm that the extreme flood events of the Juruá River are more intense in recent years, both concerning the extreme levels of the river and in periodicity and speed of flooding. The large floods have impacted the productive calendar, generating losses for farmers. In addition, rubber trees and cassava plantations have been dying with the large floods, and oil seeds are being carried by the water before harvest. The physical data of the Juruá River shows a trend of increasing extreme floods over the last 40 years for the period November to April, highlighting the years 2013 to 2015 and 2021 with the largest positive anomalies. Farmers have adapted their calendars, modified some planting areas to locations with higher altitudes and farther from the river banks, and have sought new rubber matrices. The results point to the need for mitigation and adaptation measures promoted by local governments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, a linear scaling method, precipitation extended linear scaling (PELS), is proposed to correct precipitation simulated by GCMs. In this method, monthly scaling factors were extended to daily scaling factors (DSFs) to improve the daily variation in precipitation. In addition, DSFs were also checked for outliers and smoothed with a smoothing filter to reduce the effect of noisy DSFs before correcting the GCM’s precipitation. This method was evaluated using the observed precipitation of 21 climate stations and five GCMs in the Jhelum River basin, Pakistan and India, for the period of 1986–2000 and also compared with the original linear scaling (OLS) method. The evaluation results showed substantial improvement in the corrected GCM precipitation, especially in case of mean and standard deviation values. Although PELS and OLS showed comparable results, the overall performance of PELS was better than OLS. After Evaluation, PELS was applied to the future precipitation from five GCMs for the period of 2041–2070 under RCP8.5 and RCP2.6 in the Jhelum basin, and the future changes in precipitation were calculated with respect to 1971–2000. According to average all GCMs, annual precipitation was projected to decrease by 4% and 6% in the basin under RCP8.5 and RCP2.6, respectively. Although two seasons, spring and fall, showed some increasing precipitation, the monsoon season showed severe decrease in precipitation, with 22% (RCP8.5) and 29% (RCP2.6), and even more reduction in July and August, up to 34% (RCP8.5) and 36% (RCP2.6). This means if the climate of the world follows the RCP8.5 and RCP2.6, then there will be a severe reduction in precipitation in the Jhelum basin during peak months. It was also observed that decline in precipitation was higher under RCP2.6 than RCP8.5. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Black Sea freezing in winter is observed regularly in its northern parts and near the Kerch Strait. The reason for this is the relatively shallow northwestern shelf part and the river inflow of the three major European rivers Danube, Dnieper, and Dniester, as well as Don through the Azov Sea, carrying a large amount of fresh water to this part of the Black Sea. The global warming that has been observed in recent decades has made these episodes less intense; nevertheless, they exist and impact people who live n the area. The aim of this study is to analyze the extent of sea-ice variability in the last 15 years, observed by satellite observations, and to describe the weather conditions favorable for freezing to occur. It is found that, in 2006, 2012 and 2017, sea ice extended unusually southward, which is related to the unusually cold winter and weather conditions in these years. The weather patterns associated with the periods of maximal sea ice in the Black Sea are discussed. In addition, we analyze how the winter conditions change in the period 1926–2021 by combining different data sources. The winter is classified as cold, moderate or mild through the Winter Severity Index following a previously published methodology. The findings in our paper could help to monitor and predict these events and to inform the interested end-users. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change, through changes in temperature, precipitation, and frequency of extreme events, has influenced agricultural production and food security over the past several decades. In order to assess climate and weather-related risks to fruit and grape production in Serbia, changes in bioclimatic indices and frequency of the occurrence of unfavourable weather events are spatially analysed for the past two decades (1998–2017) and the standard climatological period 1961–1990. Between the two periods, the Winkler and Huglin indices changed into a warmer category in most of the viticultural regions of Serbia. The average change shift was about 200 m towards higher elevations. Regarding the frequency of spring frost, high summer temperatures and water deficit, the most vulnerable regions in terms of fruit and grape production are found alongside large rivers (Danube, Sava, Great and South Morava), as well as in the northern part of the country. Regions below 300 m are under increased risk of high summer temperatures, as the number and duration of occurrences increased significantly over the studied periods. The high-resolution spatial analysis presented here gives an assessment of the climate change influence on the fruit and grapes production. The presented approach may be used in regional impact assessments and national planning of adaptation measures, and it may help increase resilience of agricultural production to climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study analyzes the risks to public health and life quality in the conditions of permafrost degradation caused by the ongoing climate change in the Russian Arctic. There are more than 200 Siberian anthrax cattle burial grounds in the Russian permafrost regions. Permafrost degradation poses the risks of thawing of frozen carcasses of the infected animals and propagation of infectious diseases. Permafrost degradation leads to infiltration of toxic waste in the environment. Such waste contains mercury, which migrates into the rivers and forms methylmercury (MeHg) in fish. Other risks associated with permafrost degradation include damage to the existing social infrastructure (housing, health-care facilities, roads, etc.). Various risks to public well-being that emerge because of permafrost degradation were addressed in this study. Relative hazard indices were developed and calculated to characterize the probability of outbreaks of Siberian anthrax in the future. These indices linked the rates of permafrost degradation and the number of Siberian anthrax cattle burials to the potential hazard of re-emergence of Siberian anthrax among local populations in 70 municipal districts under the ongoing warming. The expected damage to public housing, health-care facilities, and motorways was assessed. Accessibility of health care in various regions of the Russian Arctic was analyzed. The economic costs associated with various scenarios of possible destruction of residential buildings, health-care facilities, and roads built on permafrost were estimated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Future climate change and its impact on drought is critical for Uzbekistan, located in Central Asia, the world's largest arid zone. This study examines the evolving intensity of climate change and drought events using multi-model ensembles (MMEs) derived from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and 6 (CMIP5 and CMIP6) simulated under the Representative Concentration Pathway and Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (RCP and SSP) scenarios. The projections show different rates of increase in temperature and precipitation under the RCPs and SSPs. Projected temperature increases are expected to reach up to 2–2.5 °C under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP3-7.0, by mid-century. By 2080–2099, an increase is projected of 2–3 °C in monthly mean temperatures throughout the year (SSP1-2.6), and a more pronounced increase in summer up to 3–4 °C (SSP2-4.5) and 4–6 °C (SSP3-7.0), with a marked contrast in conditions between the mountainous and desert regions of Uzbekistan. Regional changes in precipitation over the study periods show relatively little variability, except for FD, where notable trends are found. Under SSP1-2.6 and SSP2-4.5, the increase in precipitation is relatively modest, whereas the changes in SSP3-7.0 are more substantial, with some regions experiencing variations of up to 10–20 mm per period. The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), calculated based on the projected temperature and precipitation, provides an estimate of future drought trends. Our results show increasing aridity under all scenarios by mid-century, with longer-term projections indicating stabilization around different SPEI values by 2100: RCP2.6 and SSP1-1.9 stabilize around −1.0; RCP4.5, RCP6.0, SSP2-4.5, and SSP3-7.0 stabilize around −1.5; while RCP8.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios project values of −2 or less by 2100. Notable differences in the SPEI index are found between lowland and foothill regions. In view of Uzbekistan's heavy reliance on agriculture and irrigation, which are the sectors that are expected to be mostly affected by climate change, our study provides a scientific basis for informed policy decision-making. This includes various aspects such as planning and management water resources, as well as the broader socioeconomic development of the country. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study provides an in-depth analysis of the frequency of extreme streamflow in Italy, adopting the innovative perspective of the theory of records, and focusing on record-breaking floods. (i.e., annual maximum series, AMS) observed in Italy between 1911 and 2020. Our research employs an extensive dataset of 522 annual maximum series (AMS) of streamflow observed across Italy between 1911 and 2020. We consider three time intervals (1911–2020, 1911–1970, and 1971–2020), and we define pooling-groups of AMSs based on (a) hydrological (e.g., catchment size, mean annual precipitation, etc.) and (b) spatial proximities of the gauged sites. First, within each group and for each time period, we compute the regional average number of record-breaking events (NRbins). Second, with a series of resampling experiments that preserve the spatial correlation among the AMSs, we test the hypothesis that NRbins result from a group of stationary sequences. Our results show spatially coherent patterns of an increasing number of record-breaking floods in central and in northeastern Italy over the last 50 years. In the same time interval, significant deviations in the regional number of record-breaking events from what would be expected for stationary flood sequences seem to be more common in drier climates or at higher altitudes, while the catchment size does not seem to be a meaningful descriptor. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Potential evapotranspiration (PET), as an indicator of atmospheric evaporative demand, is a critical hydrological and meteorological factor to reflect regional and global hydrological cycles and environmental change. Understanding these nuanced responses of PET to environmental changes is important for agricultural production and water demand estimation. This study rigorously evaluated fluctuations in PET using the Penman–Monteith model over a 50-year span from 1970 to 2020 in the Sichuan–Chongqing region, an area notably susceptible to climate change. The changing characteristics of PET and local meteorological factors were detected by integrating the Mann–Kendall method and Pettitt test. Furthermore, the contribution and sensitivity of key meteorological variables to the observed variation in PET were also thoroughly investigated. Breakpoint analysis revealed that abrupt changes appeared in 1996 for annual PET. The detrending method indicated that substantial decreases in net radiation and wind speed (p < 0.01) were responsible for the decrease in annual PET from 1970 to 1996. Marked increases in minimum temperature and wind speed were the driving forces behind the uptick in annual PET in 1997–2020. At seasonal scales, wind speed and net radiation predominantly influenced PET in 1970–1996 in general. However, from 1997 to 2020, the factors controlling PET fluctuations displayed considerable seasonal variation. Sensitivity analysis showed that Ws and Tmin were the second-most sensitive factors. By exploring the impacts of PET changes and shifts, attention must be paid when allocating water resources reasonably under the background of ongoing climate change and likelihood of future drought. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Grapevine is a highly climate-sensitive plant. In the last few decades, an increase in the number and area of vineyards has been observed in the country, with the Zielona Góra region pioneering this revival. A comprehensive analysis of climatic and agroclimatic indicators for grapevines was conducted to assess the possibilities and limitations in this region. Based on data obtained from the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management—National Research Institute (IMGW-PIB) for stations in Zielona Góra, nine key indicators were identified. The analysis of agroclimatic conditions for the Zielona Góra winegrowing region from 1951 to 2022 revealed significant changes in air temperature, length of the vegetative period, and number of frosts. The average annual air temperature increased, while the number of days with temperatures below 8 °C decreased. The extension of the vegetative period (starting earlier and ending later) favours grapevine cultivation. The increase in temperature during the vegetative period and the lengthening of the frost-free period have a beneficial effect on grape production in the Zielona Góra region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Inland waterways and their connections to marine transport systems constitute a substantial resource for the establishment of green infrastructures, flood prevention, and environmental conservation. However, these developments have numerous inherent environmental hazards such as water and air pollution, a loss of habitats, increased coastal erosion, the transfer of invasive species between connected watercourses and lakes, and the transport of pollutants through watercourses to coastal areas. Climate change may aggravate these environmental problems through changing temperatures, reduced precipitation, enhancing the adverse impact of excess nutrient discharge, and the entry of invasive species. In this study, we analyse the main European inland waterway corridors and their branches to assess the ecological viability of a pan-European inland waterway network. The environmental viability of such network depends on the right assessment of ecosystem services and protection of biodiversity. A model structure for landscape conservation, green infrastructure development, water replenishment, and ecosystem reconstruction is proposed, considering a sustainable combination of multimodal inland waterway and rail transport. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Analyzing trends in flood magnitude changes, and their underlying causes, under climate change, is a key challenge for the effective management of water resources in arid and semi-arid regions, particularly for inland rivers originating in the Qilian Mountains (QMs). Sen’s slope estimator and the Mann–Kendall test were used to investigate the spatial and temporal trends in flood magnitude, based on the annual maximum peak discharge (AMPD) and Peaks Over Threshold magnitude (POT3M) flood series, of twelve typical rivers, from 1970 to 2021. The results showed that, in the AMPD series, 42% of the rivers had significantly decreasing trends, while 8% had significantly increasing trends; in the POT3M series, 25% of the rivers had significantly decreasing trends, while 8% had significantly increasing trends. The regional differences in the QMs from east to west were that, rivers in the eastern region (e.g., Gulang, Zamu, and Xiying rivers) showed significantly decreasing trends in the AMPD and POT3M series; most rivers in the central region had non-significant trends, while the Shule river in the western region showed a significantly increasing trend. Temperatures and precipitation showed a fluctuating increasing trend after 1987, which were the main factors contributing to the change in flood magnitude trends of the AMPD and POT3M flood series in the QMs. Regional differences in precipitation, precipitation intensity, and the ratio of glacial meltwater in the eastern, central and western regions, resulted in the differences in flood magnitude trends between the east and west.

Climate change has a significant impact on the abiotic and biotic environment. An increase in air temperatures translates into higher temperatures of water constituting the habitat of a wide range of species. The purpose of this study is to present the direction and extent of water temperature increases in eight rivers and three lakes on a monthly and annual basis. The analysis of river water temperatures used both measured data and data reconstructed using artificial neural networks from the period of 1984–2020. The analysis of the direction and extent of changes in air and water temperatures was performed using Mann-Kandall tests and a modified Sen test. The analysis of water temperature changes was conducted against the background of climatic conditions and catchment characteristics. The results indicate that in the Warta River basin in the period of 1984–2020, the average annual temperature rise reached 0.51 °C decade−1, ranging from 0.43 to 0.61 °C decade−1. This translated into an increase in mean annual water temperatures in lakes in a range from 0.14 to 0.58 °C decade−1, and for rivers in a range from 0.10 to 0.54 °C decade−1. The greatest changes in air temperature occurred in April, June, August, September, and November. It was reflected in an increase in water temperature in lakes and rivers. However, these changes did not occur in all rivers and lakes, suggesting the role of local factors that modify the effect of climate change. The study showed that the extent of air temperature changes was significantly higher than the extent of water temperature changes in rivers.

There is a 50% possibility that global temperatures will have risen by more than 5 °C by the year 2100. As demands on Earth's systems grow more unsustainable, human security is clearly at stake. This narrative review provides an overview and synthesis of findings in relation to climate change, air pollution, and human health within the Global South context, focusing on case study geographic locations in South Africa and Brazil. Two case study regions—the Kruger to Canyons Biosphere region of South Africa and the Amazon region of Brazil—were the subjects of PubMed literature searches. Technical reports, policy briefs, and grey literature were also narratively synthesized. The burning of wood for fuel, as witnessed in Agincourt, and forest fires, such as those seen in the Amazon rainforest, release air pollutants such as methane and black carbon, which are strong short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs) which fuel climate change and adversely affect human health. SLCPs have a brief lifetime in the atmosphere, but they frequently have a far larger potential for global warming than carbon dioxide (CO2). Most air pollution in geographic case study areas, that are home to human settlements, is due to the burning of wood and other biomasses that are pollutants. These areas are seen to be important for climate and health responses, and if constructive action is taken to switch to other modes of electricity generation (such as solar power) and the prevention of deforestation, the worst of the impacts may still be mitigated in these regions. Authorities should also establish a monitoring strategy for air quality, as well as enforce air quality regulations that safeguard public health. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Located in the central part of the arid regions of Northwest China, the Heihe River Basin (HRB) plays an important role in wind prevention, sand fixation, and soil and water conservation as the second largest inland river basin. In the context of the warming and wetting climate observed in Northwest China, the situation of the ecological environment in the HRB is of significant concern. Using the data from meteorological observation stations, grid fusion and hydrological monitoring, this study analyzes the multi-scale climate changes in the HRB and their impacts on runoff. In addition, predictive models for runoff in the upper and middle reaches were developed using machine learning methods. The results indicate that the climate in the HRB has experienced an overall warming and wetting trend over the past 60 years. At the same time, there are clear regional variabilities in the climate changes. Precipitation shows decreasing trends in the northwestern part of the HRB, while it shows increases at rates higher than the regional average in the southeastern part. Moreover, the temperature increases are generally smaller in the upper reaches than those in the middle and lower reaches. Over the past 60 years, there has been a remarkable increase in runoff at the Yingluo Gorge (YL) hydrological station, which exhibits a distinct "single-peak" pattern in the variation of monthly runoff. The annual runoff volume at the YL (ZY) hydrological station is significantly correlated with the precipitation in the upper (middle) reaches, indicating the precipitation is the primary influencing factor determining the annual runoff. Temperature has a significant impact only on the runoff in the upper reaches, while its impact is not significant in the middle reaches. The models trained by the support vector machines and random forest models perform best in predicting the annual runoff and monthly runoff, respectively. This study can provide a scientific basis for environmental protection and sustainable development in the HRB. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The productivity and quality of grapes and wine are significantly influenced by changing climate conditions in vineyard regions worldwide. This study assesses changes in temperature, precipitation, and viticultural indices between the periods of 1971–1990 and 2000–2019 in Trebinje, a vineyard area located in the Herzegovina region of Bosnia and Herzegovina. Between the two periods, mean annual temperature increased by 2 °C and mean vegetational temperature by 2.4 °C, while mean precipitation remained within the range of climatological variability, with annual values increasing by 6% and vegetational values decreasing by 4.6%. Warming resulted in a longer duration of the vegetation season by 23.7 days, a reduced risk of late spring frosts, and an increased risk of very high temperatures during summer. These changes led to the reclassification of Trebinje vineyards' climate from Region III to Region V, based on the Winkler index values, from a "temperate warm" to a "warm" category, based on the Huglin heliothermic index, and from "cool nights" to "temperate nights" based on the cool nights index. The category of the dryness index remained unchanged between the two periods. The findings emphasize the necessity for a renewal of the viticultural zoning and the development of climate change-adaptation plans for this region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate is one of the key factors driving changes in vegetation, and the response of the vegetation to climate often occurs with a time delay. However, research on the cumulative lagged response of the vegetation to meteorological factors in large-scale regions is limited. Therefore, this study first evaluated the performance of the Gross Primary Productivity (GPP) products provided by Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Penman–Monteith–Leuning (PML) over the past 20 years in China and then determined the lagged relationships between the GPP and major meteorological factors in different regions and land-use types in China based on a partial correlation analysis. The results indicate that (1) GPP_PML outperforms GPP_MODIS products in the regional context of China; (2) China's regional GPP has shown a fluctuating upward trend over the past 20 years, with a stepwise increase in the multi-year average from the northwest inland to the southeast coastal regions, and a higher contribution from the southern regions than the northern ones; (3) unlike the recent upward trend in regional temperatures, both precipitation and radiation have decreased, with these two factors showing completely opposite multi-year trends in most regions; and (4) the proportion of regions with lagged effects of the GPP on meteorological factors is higher than those with cumulative effects in China. Among these, GPP exhibits a higher proportion of a 3-month lagged response to precipitation, which is particularly pronounced at altitudes between 500 and 2500 m and above 5500 m. the proportion of the areas with no lag cumulative response to temperature and radiation with GPP in China is the highest due to the influence of more barren land and grassland in the northwest interior. Simultaneously, grassland and barren land have a higher proportion of the non-lagged cumulative responses to temperature and precipitation. This study contributes to our understanding of vegetation dynamics in the context of global climate change and provides a theoretical foundation for regional ecological conservation and high-quality coordinated development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Soil temperature is an important index of climate change, and the analysis of soil temperature change is of great significance for understanding climate change and ecohydrological processes. This study was based on the measured meteorological data of a meteorological station, combined with the soil temperature data of 0–10, 10–40, 40–100 and 100–200 cm from the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS-NOAH). The Mann–Kendall test, wavelet analysis, linear tendency estimation and other methods were used to analyze the variability, periodicity and trend of soil temperature in Lhasa from 2006 to 2022. The results showed that the soil temperature of different soil layers had abrupt changes in annual and seasonal time series, and all showed a warming phenomenon after abrupt changes. In terms of periodicity, the average annual soil temperature of different soil layers has similar periodic changes, and the periodic oscillation is strong around 10a, which is the main cycle of soil temperature change. The soil temperature in Lhasa showed a significant rising trend in the interannual and seasonal time series, and the average annual rising trend of soil temperature was greater than that of air temperature. The correlation between soil temperature and mean air temperature (MAT), maximum air temperature (Tmax), minimum air temperature (Tmin) and snow depth (SD) was investigated by Pearson correlation analysis. Soil temperature in spring, autumn and winter had a strong correlation with MAT, Tmax and Tmin, showing a significant positive correlation. The negative correlation between soil temperature and SD in 0–40 cm soil in spring and winter was more severe. The research results show that Lhasa has experienced a rise in air temperature and soil temperature in the past 17 years, and reveal the specific changes in soil temperature in Lhasa against the background of climate change. These findings have reference significance for understanding the impact of climate change on the natural environment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study proposes a deep neural network (DNN)-based downscaling model incorporating kernel principal component analysis (KPCA) to investigate the precipitation uncertainty influenced by typhoons in Taiwan, which has a complex island topography. The best tracking data of tropical cyclones from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) are utilized to calculate typhoon and non-typhoon precipitation. KPCA is applied to extract nonlinear features of the BCC-CSM1-1 (Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model version 1.1) and CanESM2 (second-generation Canadian Earth System Model) GCM models. The length of the data used in the two GCM models span from January 1950 to December 2005 (historical data) and from January 2006 to December 2099 (scenario out data). The rainfall data are collected from the weather stations in Taichung and Hualien (cities of Taiwan) operated by the Central Weather Administration (CWA), Taiwan. The period of rainfall data in Taichung and in Hualien spans from January 1950 to December 2005. The proposed model is constructed with features extracted from the GCMs and historical monthly precipitation from Taichung and Hualien. The model we have built is used to estimate monthly precipitation and uncertainty in both Taichung and Hualien for future scenarios (rcp 4.5 and 8.5) of the GCMs. The results suggest that, in Taichung and Hualien, the summer precipitation is mostly within the normal range. The rainfall in the long term (January 2071 to December 2080) for both Taichung and Hualien typically fall between 100 mm and 200 mm. In the long term, the dry season (January to April, November, and December) precipitation for Taichung and that in the wet season (May to October) for Hualien are less and more affected by typhoons, respectively. The dry season precipitation is more affected by typhoons in Taichung than Hualien. In both Taichung and Hualien, the long-term probability of rainfall exceeding the historical average in the dry season is higher than that in the wet season. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study aims to estimate the surface runoff and examine the impact of climate change on water resources in the Upper Kabul River Basin (UKRB). A hydrological model was developed using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) from 2009 to 2019. The monthly calibration was conducted on streamflow in six stations for the period from 2010 to 2016, and the results were validated from 2017 to 2018 based on available observed data. The hydrological sensitivity parameters were further prioritized using SWAT-CUP. The uncertainty of the model was analyzed by the 95% Prediction Uncertainty (95PPU). Future projections were analyzed for the 2040s (2030–2049) and 2090s (2080–2099) compared to the baseline period (1986–2005) under two representation concentration pathways (RCP4.5, RCP8.5). Four Regional Climate Models (RCMs) were bias-corrected using the linear scaling bias correction method. The modeling results exhibited a very reasonable fit between the estimated and observed runoff in different stations, with NS values ranging from 0.54 to 0.91 in the calibration period. The future mean annual surface runoff exhibited an increase in the 2040s and 2090s compared to the baseline under both RCPs of 4.5 and 8.5 due to an increase in annual precipitation. The annual precipitation is projected to increase by 5% in the 2040s, 1% in the 2090s under RCP4.5, and by 9% in the 2040s and 2% in the 2090s under RCP8.5. The future temperature is also projected to increase and consequently lead to earlier snowmelt, resulting in a shift in the seasonal runoff peak to earlier months in the UKRB. However, the shifts in the timing of runoff could lead to significant impacts on water availability and exacerbate the water stress in this region, decreasing in summer runoff and increasing in the winter and spring runoffs. The future annual evapotranspiration is projected to increase under both scenarios; however, decreases in annual snowfall, snowmelt, sublimation, and groundwater recharge are predicted in the UKRB. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global warming may increase potential evapotranspiration (ETp), reducing the water resources in Yangzi River Delta. Therefore, it is important to investigate the trend of ETp there under the background of climate change. To this purpose, the systematic biases in temperature outputs of 24 global climate models (GCMs) under 3 shared socioeconomic pathways—representative concentration pathways (SSPs) emission scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5)—are first corrected by using 8 bias correction methods. Then, the trend of ETp in Yangtze River Delta is projected by using 4 ETp calculation formulas (Blaney–Criddle, Hargreaves–Samani, Makkink, and Priestley–Taylor). The uncertainty of the projections is estimated and decomposed by using multi-way analysis of variance frameworks. The influence of uncertainty on the projected change signal is quantified by using the signal-to-noise ratio. The results show that all emission scenarios indicate robust increments of ETp. Specifically, relative to 1971~2000, ETp will increase by 0.14~0.17 mm d−1 (5.7~6.8%) during 2021~2050 and by 0.21~0.41 mm d−1 (8.5~16.7%) during 2061~2090, respectively. During 2021~2050, the uncertainty of ETp projections is dominantly contributed by the main effects of GCM (63%) and the ETp calculation formula (24%). During 2061~2090, it is mainly contributed by the main effect of GCM (36%), followed by the main effects of the emission scenario (34%) and the ETp calculation formula (18%). The ETp projections are generally reliable and robust during the two projection periods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Floods are amongst the most destructive and costly natural disasters impacting communities around the globe. The severity and reoccurrence of flooding events have been more common in recent years as a result of the changing climate and urbanization. Best Management Practices (BMPs) are commonly used flood management techniques that aim to alleviate flooding and its impacts by capturing surface runoff and promoting infiltration. Recent studies have examined the effectiveness of BMPs in countering the effects of flooding; however, the performance of such strategies still needs to be analyzed for possible future climate change. In this context, this research employs climate model-driven datasets from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program to evaluate the effects of climate change on urban hydrology within a study region by calculating historical and projected 6 h 100-year storm depths. Finally, the climate-induced design storms are simulated in the PCSWMM model, and the three BMP options (i.e., porous pavement, infiltration trench, and green roof) are evaluated to alleviate the impact of flooding events. This study quantifies the impact of changing climate on flood severity based on future climate models. The results indicate that peak discharge and peak volume are projected to increase by a range of 5% to 43% and 8% to 94%, respectively. In addition, the results demonstrated that green roofs, Permeable Pavement, and infiltration trenches help to reduce peak discharge by up to 7%, 14%, and 15% and reduce flood volume by up to 19%, 24%, and 29%, respectively, thereby presenting a promising solution to address the challenges posed by climate change-induced flooding events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Indian summer monsoon (ISM), one of the dramatic illustrations of seasonal hydrological variability in the climate system, affects billions of lives. The ISM dominantly controls the northern Indian Ocean sea-surface salinity, mostly in the Bay of Bengal and the Andaman Sea, by the Ganga-Brahmaputra-Meghna and Irrawaddy-Salween rivers outflow and direct rainfall. In the past decade, numerous studies have used radiogenic neodymium (εNd) isotopes of seawater to link Indian subcontinent erosion and the ensuing increase in discharge that results in changes in the north Indian Ocean sea surface. Here we synthesized the state of the ISM and ocean circulation using the neodymium and hafnium isotopes from north Indian Ocean deep-sea sediments. Our data suggest that the Bay of Bengal and north Indian Ocean sea-surface conditions were most likely modulated by changes in the ISM strength during the last glacial-interglacial cycle. These findings contrast to the hypothesis that suggests that the bottom water neodymium isotopes of the northern Indian Ocean were modulated by switching between two distant sources, namely North Atlantic Deep Water and Antarctic bottom water. Furthermore, the consistency between the neodymium and hafnium isotopes during the last glacial maximum and Holocene suggests a weak and dry ISM and strong and wet conditions, respectively. These data also indicate that the primary source of these isotopes was the Himalayas. Our results support the previously published paleo-proxy records, indicating weak and strong monsoons for the same periods. Moreover, our data further support the hypothesis that the northern Indian Ocean neodymium isotopes were decoupled from the global ocean neodymium budget due to the greater regional influence by the great Ganga-Brahmaputra-Meghna and Irrawaddy-Salween discharge draining the Indian subcontinent to the Bay of Bengal and the Andaman Sea. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examines the changing rainfall patterns in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta (VMD) utilizing observational data spanning from 1978 to 2022. We employ the Mann–Kendall test, the sequential Mann–Kendall test, and innovative trend analysis to investigate trends in annual, wet, and dry season rainfall, as well as daily rainfall events. Our results show significant spatial variations. Ca Mau, a coastal province, consistently showed higher mean annual and seasonal rainfall compared to the further inland stations of Can Tho and Moc Hoa. Interestingly, Ca Mau experienced a notable decrease in annual rainfall. Conversely, Can Tho, showed an overall decrease in some months of the wet season and an increase in dry season rainfall. Furthermore, Moc Hoa showed an increase in the number of rainy days, especially during the dry season. Principal component analysis (PCA) further revealed strong correlations between annual rainfall and extreme weather events, particularly for Ca Mau, emphasizing the complex interplay of geographic and climatic factors within the region. Our findings offer insights for policymakers and planners, thus aiding the development of targeted interventions to manage water resources and prepare for changing climate conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Salt Lakes, having a salt concentration higher than that of seawater and hosting unique extremophiles, are predominantly located in drought-prone zones worldwide, accumulating diverse salts and continuously emitting salt dust or aerosols. However, knowledge on emission, chemical composition, and health impacts of Salt Lake aerosols under climate change is scarce. This review delves into the intricate dynamics of Salt Lake aerosols in the context of climate change, pointing out that, as global warming develops and weather patterns shift, Salt Lakes undergo notable changes in water levels, salinity, and overall hydrological balance, leading to a significant alteration of Salt Lake aerosols in generation and emission patterns, physicochemical characteristics, and transportation. Linked to rising temperatures and intensified evaporation, a marked increase will occur in aerosol emissions from breaking waves on the Salt Lake surface and in saline dust emission from dry lakebeds. The hygroscopic nature of these aerosols, coupled with the emission of sulfate aerosols, will impart light-scattering properties and a cooling effect. The rising temperature and wind speed; increase in extreme weather in regard to the number of events; and blooms of aquatic microorganisms, phytoplankton, and artemia salina in and around Salt Lakes, will lead to the release of more organic substances or biogenic compounds, which contribute to the alteration of saline aerosols in regard to their quantitative and chemical composition. Although the inhalation of saline aerosols from Salt Lakes and fine salt particles suspended in the air due to salt dust storms raises potential health concerns, particularly causing respiratory and cardiovascular disease and leading to eye and skin discomfort, rock salt aerosol therapy is proved to be a good treatment and rehabilitation method for the prevention and treatment of pneumoconiosis and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). It is implied that the Salt Lake aerosols, at a certain exposure concentration, likely can delay the pathogenesis of silicosis by regulating oxidative stress and reducing interstitial fibrosis of the lungs. It emphasizes the interconnectedness of climate changes, chemical composition, and health aspects, advocating for a comprehensive and practical approach to address the challenges faced by Salt Lake aerosols in an ever-changing global climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study presents a framework to attribute river runoff variations to the combined effects of reservoir operations, land surface changes, and climate variability. We delineated the data into natural and impacted periods. For the natural period, an integrated Long Short-Term Memory and Random Forest model was developed to accurately simulate both mean and extreme runoff values, outperforming existing models. This model was then used to estimate runoff unaffected by human activities in the impacted period. Our findings indicate stable annual and wet season mean runoff, with a decrease in wet season maximums and an increase in dry season means, while extreme values remained largely unchanged. A Budyko framework incorporating reconstructed runoff revealed that rainfall and land surface changes are the predominant factors influencing runoff variations in wet and dry seasons, respectively, and land surface impacts become more pronounced during the impacted period for both seasons. Human activities dominate dry season runoff variation (93.9%), with climate change at 6.1%, while in the wet season, the split is 64.5% to 35.5%. Climate change and human activities have spontaneously led to reduced runoff during the wet season and increased runoff during the dry season. Only reservoir regulation is found to be linked to human-induced runoff changes, while the effects of land surface changes remain ambiguous. These insights underscore the growing influence of anthropogenic factors on hydrological extremes and quantify the role of reservoirs within the impacts of human activities on runoff. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Citizens in urban areas are affected by the urban heat island (UHI) effect, resulting in increased thermal heat compared to rural areas. This threat is exacerbated by global climate change. Therefore, it is necessary to assess human thermal comfort and risk for decision making. This is important for planners (climate resilience), the health sector (information for vulnerable people), tourism, urban designers (aesthetics), and building architects. Urban structures modify local meteorological parameters and thus human thermal comfort at the microscale. Knowledge of the pattern of a city's UHI is typically limited. Based on previous research, generalized additive models (GAMs) were built to predict the spatial pattern of the UHI in the city of Karlsruhe. The models were trained with administrative, remotely sensed, and land use and land cover geodata, and validated with measurements in Freiburg. This identified the hot and cold spots and the need for further urban planning in the city. The model had some limitations regarding water bodies and anthropogenic heat production, but it was well suited for applications in mid-latitude cities which are not topographically characterized. The model can potentially be used for other cities (e.g., in heat health action plans) as the training data are freely available. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Earth's water resources, totalling 1.386 billion cubic kilometres, predominantly consist of saltwater in oceans. Groundwater plays a pivotal role, with 99% of usable freshwater supporting 1.5–3 billion people as a drinking water source and 60–70% for irrigation. Climate change, with temperature increases and altered precipitation patterns, directly impacts groundwater systems, affecting recharge, discharge, and temperature. Hydrological models are crucial for assessing climate change effects on groundwater, aiding in management decisions. Advanced hydrological models, incorporating data assimilation and improved process representation, contribute to understanding complex systems. Recent studies employ numerical models to assess climate change impacts on groundwater recharge that could help in the management of groundwater. Groundwater vulnerability assessments vary with the spatial and temporal considerations, as well as assumptions in modelling groundwater susceptibility. This review assesses the vulnerability of groundwater to climate change and stresses the importance of accurate assessments for sustainable water resource management. It highlights challenges in assumptions related to soil and aquifer properties, multiple stressors, adaptive capacity, topography and groundwater contamination processes, gradual sea level rise scenarios, and realistic representations of the region of study. With the advancements in hydrological modelling, including the integration of uncertainty quantification and remote sensing data, artificial intelligence could assist in the efforts to improve models for assessing the impacts of climate change on hydrological modelling. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigated the relationship between the summer Arctic Dipole (AD) anomaly and the climatic variability in Eurasia during the period 1979–2021. It was found that the summer AD anomaly experienced a phase shift from frequent negative phases before 2006 to positive phases after 2007, as manifested by the shift of the center of the positive (negative) AD anomaly to Greenland (in the Laptev Sea and East Siberian Seas) in the more recent period (2007–2021) from the vicinity of the Kara Sea and Laptev Sea (the Canadian archipelago) in the earlier period (1979–2006). Before the mid-2000s, a wave train was shown in the middle troposphere of Eurasia, and this teleconnection pattern of atmospheric circulation could have resulted in local warm and wet (cool and dry) anomalies over northern Russia and East Asia (Western Europe and the Far east). Since the mid-2000s, the wave train has experienced a notable adjustment that was conducive to East Asian and Arctic cooling, displaying anticyclonic anomalies around northern Eurasia and two cyclonic anomalies centered near the Arctic and East Asia. The presence of a cold Arctic anomaly was found to enhance westerly winds at high latitudes by modulating the meridional temperature gradient (MTG) and impeding the southward propagation of cold Arctic air. Additionally, the warmth of northern Eurasia may have also resulted in a reduction in the MTG between northern Eurasia and the mid-lower latitudes, favoring a weakening of zonal winds over the central region of Eurasia. The increased upper-level westerly winds over southern East Asia implied a weakened East Asian Summer Monsoon, which inhibited precipitation in northeast China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Cantareira Water Production System (CWPS), which supplies water to the most populous region in Brazil, is facing significant challenges due to hydroclimate change, thus threatening its water security. This research integrates data from climate models and field observations with hydrological modeling, aimed at quantifying trends in key variables of the hydrological cycle. The GFDL-CM4 climate model, the most suitable for the study area, was employed to generate runoff data under both current conditions and future scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5). Our analysis reveals an increasing trend in the frequency of dry hydrological years. The Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) and Drought Magnitude (DM) confirm an increase in both the occurrence and duration of droughts in future scenarios. The runoff in all basins was reduced, causing a substantial decrease in minimum flows of 16.9%, medium flows of 11.8%, and high flows of 9.2% for the SSP5-8.5 scenario. This research introduces an approach to hydroclimate impact assessment, combining rigorous data analysis with advanced modeling techniques. Our findings not only provide a comprehensive understanding of the challenges faced by the CWPS, but also offer critical quantitative insights essential for developing effective public policies and adaptive strategies for sustainable water resource management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Drought monitoring and early detection have improved greatly in recent decades through the development and refinement of numerous indices and indicators. However, a lack of guidance, based on user experience, exists as to which drought-monitoring tools are most appropriate in a given location. This review paper summarizes the results of targeted user engagement and the published literature to improve the understanding of drought across North America and to enhance the utility of drought-monitoring tools. Workshops and surveys were used to assess and make general conclusions about the perceived performance of drought indicators, indices and impact information used for monitoring drought in the five main Köppen climate types (Tropical, Temperate, Continental, Polar Tundra, Dry) found across Canada, Mexico, and the United States. In Tropical, humid Temperate, and southerly Continental climates, droughts are perceived to be more short-term (less than 6 months) in duration rather than long-term (more than 6 months). In Polar Tundra climates, Dry climates, Temperate climates with dry warm seasons, and northerly Continental climates, droughts are perceived to be more long-term than short-term. In general, agricultural and hydrological droughts were considered to be the most important drought types. Drought impacts related to agriculture, water supply, ecosystem, and human health were rated to be of greatest importance. Users identified the most effective indices and indicators for monitoring drought across North America to be the U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) and Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) (or another measure of precipitation anomaly), followed by the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) (or another satellite-observed vegetation index), temperature anomalies, crop status, soil moisture, streamflow, reservoir storage, water use (demand), and reported drought impacts. Users also noted the importance of indices that measure evapotranspiration, evaporative demand, and snow water content. Drought indices and indicators were generally thought to perform equally well across seasons in Tropical and colder Continental climates, but their performance was perceived to vary seasonally in Dry, Temperate, Polar Tundra, and warmer Continental climates, with improved performance during warm and wet times of the year. The drought indices and indicators, in general, were not perceived to perform equally well across geographies. This review paper provides guidance on when (time of year) and where (climate zone) the more popular drought indices and indicators should be used. The paper concludes by noting the importance of understanding how drought, its impacts, and its indicators are changing over time as the climate warms and by recommending ways to strengthen the use of indices and indicators in drought decision making. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Dongting Lake basin, located in the middle Yangtze River region, has long been under the threat of climate change. However, there has been a lack of comprehensive analysis and research on the long-term trends and interactions among hydrometeorological factors within the region. To address this gap, this study collected data from 31 meteorological stations in the region and employed statistical analysis methods, including the non-parametric Mann–Kendall test, Sen's slope test, and cross-wavelet analysis. The results revealed significant increases in temperatures, especially in the spring season, while summer, winter, and annual rainfall also exhibited a significant increase. However, spring and autumn rainfall showed a non-significant decrease, and there was a clear decreasing trend in annual streamflow. Interestingly, evaporation demonstrated a significant increasing trend. The annual average temperature and annual runoff exhibited approximately negative correlations in the 6–10-year resonance period and positive correlations in the 4–6-year resonance period. There are significant positive resonance periods in the relationship between annual precipitation and annual runoff within the range of 0–12 years, indicating that precipitation has a substantial impact and serves as the primary source of runoff. Furthermore, there was a transition between "abundance" and "dry" periods in the annual runoff around 4 a, occurring before and after 1973 and 2005. The change points in annual precipitation and runoff were identified as 1993 and 1983. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Towards a better understanding of factors controlling carbon (C) exchange between inland waters and atmosphere, we addressed the inorganic carbon cycle in semiarid lakes of Central Eurasia, subjected to the strong impact of on-going climate change. As such, we assessed the hydrochemical variability and quantified its control on the formation of authigenic carbonate minerals, occurring within the upper layer of sediments in 43 semiarid lakes located in the southwest of Western Siberia (Central Eurasia). Based on measurements of pH, total dissolved solids (TDS), cationic and anionic composition, dissolved organic and inorganic C, as well as textural and mineralogical characterization of bottom sediments using X-ray diffraction and scanning electron microscopy, we demonstrate that lake water pH and TDS are primarily controlled by both the lithological and climatic context of the lake watershed. We have not revealed any direct relationships between lake morphology and water chemistry. The most common authigenic carbonates scavenging atmospheric CO2 in the form of insoluble minerals in lake sediments were calcite, aragonite, Mg-calcite, dolomite and hydromagnesite. The calcite was the most common component, aragonite mainly appears in lakes with sediments enriched in gastropod shells or artemia cysts, while hydromagnesite was most common in lakes with high Mg/Ca molar ratios, as well as at high DIC concentrations. The relationships between mineral formation and water chemistry established in this study can be generalized to a wide suite of arid and semiarid lakes in order to characterize the current status of the inorganic C cycle and predict its possible modification under on-going climate warming such as a rise water temperature and a change in hydrological connectivity, primary productivity and nutrient regime. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Natural ecosystems are changing more quickly because of human activities, the type and intensity of which are directly correlated with vegetation greenness. To effectively determine how human activities affect trends in vegetation under climate change, we must differentiate between various types of human activities. The GTWR model can study the spatiotemporal non-stationary relationship between the NDVI trend and climate change. The GTWR model was incorporated into multiple climate variables and improved residual analysis to quantify the contributions of climate change and human activities on vegetation change trends in the Hexi region during different periods. This study divides human activities into four groups based on land use change: urbanization, agricultural expansion, desertification, and ecological restoration to further investigate their contribution to vegetation greenness change. The results showed that in 56.9% of the significant vegetation greening trends between 1982 and 2015, climate factors contributed only 7.4%, while human factors contributed a significant 22.7%. Since the ecological restoration project implemented in 2000, the expansion intensity of ecological restoration and urbanization increased significantly, followed by agricultural expansion and desertification. For the considerable greening trends in the Hexi region, the ecological restoration project contributed 26.7%, while agricultural expansion and urbanization contributed 17.5% and 4.6%, respectively. This study aims to provide new insights for more accurate simulation and evaluation of the interaction effects of climate change and human socio-economic development on vegetation growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Brazil has a large availability of natural resources, and its economy was historically built around their exploitation. Changes in climate trends are already causing several environmental impacts, which affect the economic and social organization of the country. Impacts linked to the hydrological cycle are particularly concerning since water resources are used for electricity production, representing approximately 65% of the Brazilian electricity matrix. This study, therefore, aims to evaluate the extreme hydroclimatic trends of river basins located in the Northeast and South regions of the country. For this purpose, we carried out a flow analysis from 2020 to 2100, considering the precipitation data from the BCC CSM1-1, CCSM4, MIROC5, and NorESM1-M models presented in the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). We used the SMAP rainfall-runoff model to obtain future flow projections for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. As a result, we observed a trend toward water loss and the intensification of extreme events, with an increase in variability in both scenarios. We also noted that these climate models have difficulty reproducing the natural variability of southern basins, as parameterization of small-scale atmospheric processes prevents them from correctly projecting the precipitation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Amur River is one of the top ten longest rivers in the world, and its hydrological response to future climate change has been rarely investigated. In this study, the outputs of four GCMs in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) were corrected and downscaled to drive a distributed hydrological model. Then, the spatial variations of runoff changes under the future climate conditions in the Amur River Basin were quantified. The results suggest that runoffs will tend to increase in the future period (2021–2070) compared with the baseline period (1961–2010), particularly in August and September. Differences were also found among different GCMs and scenarios. The ensemble mean of the GCMs suggests that the basin-averaged annual precipitation will increase by 14.6% and 15.2% under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, respectively. The increase in the annual runoff under the SSP2-4.5 scenario (22.5%) is projected to be larger than that under the SSP5-8.5 scenario (19.2%) at the lower reach of the main channel. Future climate changes also tend to enhance the flood peak and flood volume. The findings of this study bring new understandings of the hydrological response to future climate changes and are helpful for water resource management in Eurasia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In spite of the obvious climate changes effects on the Carpathian Basin hydrographic nets fish fauna, studies on their potential refuge habitats in drought periods are scarce. Multiannual (2016–2021) research of fish in some streams located in the Saxon Villages area during hydrological drought periods identified, mapped, and revealed the refuge aquatic habitats presence, management needs, and importance for fish diversity and abundance for small rivers. The impact of increasing global temperature and other human activities induced hydrologic net and habitats alteration, decreased the refuge habitats needed by freshwater fish, diminished the fish abundance, and influenced the spatial and temporal variation in fish assemblage structure in the studied area. The sites more than one meter in depth in the studied lotic system were inventoried and all 500 m of these lotic systems were also checked to see what species and how many individuals were present, and if there is was difference in their abundance between refuge and non-refuge 500 m sectors. The scarce number of these refuges due to relatively high soil erosion and clogging in those basins and the cumulative effects of other human types of impact induced a high degree of pressure on the fish fauna. Overall, it reduced the role of these lotic systems as a refuge and for reproduction for the fish of downstream Târnava Mare River, into which all of them flow. Management elements were proposed to maintain and improve these refuges' ecological support capacity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]