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Atmospheric drag stands out as the predominant non-gravitational force acting on satellites in Low Earth Orbit (LEO), with altitudes below 2000 km. This drag exhibits a strong dependence on the thermospheric mass density (TMD), a parameter of vital significance in the realms of orbit determination, prediction, collision avoidance, and re-entry forecasting. A multitude of empirical TMD models have been developed, incorporating contemporary data sources, including TMD measurements obtained through onboard accelerometers on LEO satellites. This paper delves into three different TMD modelling techniques, specifically, Fourier series, spherical harmonics, and artificial neural networks (ANNs), during periods of geomagnetic quiescence. The TMD data utilised for modelling and evaluation are derived from three distinct LEO satellites: GOCE (at an altitude of approximately 250 km), CHAMP (around 400 km), and GRACE (around 500 km), spanning the years 2002 to 2013. The consistent utilisation of these TMD data sets allows for a clear performance assessment of the different modelling approaches. Subsequent research will shift its focus to TMD modelling during geomagnetic disturbances, while the present work can serve as a foundation for disentangling TMD variations stemming from geomagnetic activity. Furthermore, this study undertakes precise TMD modelling during geomagnetic quiescence using data obtained from the GRACE (at an altitude of approximately 500 km), CHAMP (around 400 km), and GOCE (roughly 250 km) satellites, covering the period from 2002 to 2013. It employs three distinct methods, namely Fourier analysis, spherical harmonics (SH) analysis, and the artificial neural network (ANN) technique, which are subsequently compared to identify the most suitable methodology for TMD modelling. Additionally, various combinations of time and coordinate representations are scrutinised within the context of TMD modelling. Our results show that the precision of low-order Fourier-based models can be enhanced by up to 10 % through the utilisation of geocentric solar magnetic coordinates. Both the Fourier- and SH-based models exhibit limitations in approximating the vertical gradient of TMD. Conversely, the ANN-based model possesses the capacity to capture vertical TMD variability without manifesting sensitivity to variations in time and coordinate inputs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the economic growth and increasing urbanization in the last three decades, the air quality over China has continuously degraded, which poses a great threat to human health. The concentration of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) directly affects the mortality of people living in the polluted areas where air quality is poor. The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region, one of the well organized urban regions in northern China, has suffered with poor air quality and atmospheric pollution due to recent growth of the industrial sector and vehicle emissions. In the present study, we used the back propagation neural network model approach to estimate the spatial distribution of PM2.5 concentration in the BTH region for the period January 2014-December 2016, combining the satellite-derived aerosol optical depth (S-DAOD) and meteorological data. The results were validated using the ground PM2.5 data. The general method including all PM2.5 training data and 10-fold cross-method have been used for validation for PM2.5 estimation (R2 = 0.68, RMSE = 20.99 for general validation; R2 = 0.54, RMSE = 24.13 for cross-method validation). The study provides a new approach to monitoring the distribution of PM2.5 concentration. The results discussed in the present paper will be of great help to government agencies in developing and implementing environmental conservation policy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Precise regional ionospheric total electron content (TEC) models play a crucial role in correcting ionospheric delays for single-frequency receivers and studying variations in the Earth's space environment. A particle swarm optimization neural network (PSO-NN)-based model for ionospheric TEC over China has been developed using a long-term (2008–2021) ground-based global positioning system (GPS), COSMIC, and Fengyun data under geomagnetic quiet conditions. In this study, a spatial gridding approach is utilized to propose an improved version of the PSO-NN model, named the PSO-NN-GRID. The root-mean-square error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE) of the TECs estimated from the PSO-NN-GRID model on the test data set are 3.614 and 2.257 TECU, respectively, which are 7.5% and 5.5% smaller than those of the PSO-NN model. The improvements of the PSO-NN-GRID model over the PSO-NN model during the equinox, summer, and winter of 2015 are 0.4–22.1%, 0.1–12.8%, and 0.2–26.2%, respectively. Similarly, in 2019, the corresponding improvements are 0.5–13.6%, 0–10.1%, and 0–16.1%, respectively. The performance of the PSO-NN-GRID model is also verified under different solar activity conditions. The results reveal that the RMSEs for the TECs estimated by the PSO-NN-GRID model, with F10.7 values ranging within [0, 80), [80, 100), [100, 130), [130, 160), [160, 190), [190, 220), and [220, +), are, respectively, 1.0%, 2.8%, 4.7%, 5.5%, 10.1%, 9.1%, and 28.4% smaller than those calculated by the PSO-NN model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents the development of artificial neural network models for the prediction of the daily maximum hourly mean of surface ozone concentration for the next day at rural and urban locations in central Poland. The models were generated with six input variables: forecasted basic meteorological parameters and the maximum O3 concentration recorded on the previous day and number of the month. The training data set covered the period from April 2015 to September 2015. An analogous data set of input variables, for the 2014 year, not used during the process of training the networks, was used as test data to examine the quality of these models. From the results of simulations for the year 2014, the average relative error values were equal to 15.3% and 15.7% for Belsk and Warsaw stations, respectively. The mean error (ME) value indicates a tendency to overestimate the predicted values by 4.8 µg/m3 for Belsk station and to underestimate the predicted values by 0.9 µg/m3 for Warsaw station. The analysis of days when the relative error value was >50% revealed that all predictions with extremely high relative error value were associated with relatively low daily maximum surface ozone concentration values that occurred suddenly due to a sharp drop in day-to-day ozone concentration values. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Modelling drought is vital to water resources management, particularly in arid areas, to reduce its effects. Drought severity and frequency are significantly influenced by climate change. In this study, a novel hybrid methodology was built, data preprocessing and artificial neural network (ANN) combined with the constriction coefficient-based particle swarm optimisation and chaotic gravitational search algorithm (CPSOCGSA), to forecast standard precipitation index (SPI) based on climatic factors. Additionally, the marine predators algorithm (MPA) and the slime mould algorithm (SMA) were used to validate the performance of the CPSOCGSA algorithm. Climatic factors data from 1990 to 2020 were employed to create and evaluate the SPI 1, SPI 3, and SPI 6 models for Al-Kut City, Iraq. The results indicated that data preprocessing methods improve data quality and find the best predictors scenario. The performance of CPSOCGSA-ANN is better than MPA-ANN and SMA-ANN algorithms based on various statistical criteria (i.e., R2, MAE, and RMSE). The proposed methodology yield R2 = 0.93, 0.93, and 0.88 for SPI 1, SPI 3, and SPI 6, respectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Owing to the complexity of the climate system and limitations of numerical dynamical models, machine learning based on big data has been used for climate forecasting in recent years. In this study, we attempted to use an artificial neural network (ANN) for summer precipitation forecasts in the Yangtze-Huaihe River Basin (YHRB), eastern China. The major ANN employed here is the standard backpropagation neural network (BPNN), which was modified for application to the YHRB. Using the analysis data of precipitation and the predictors/factors of atmospheric circulation and sea surface temperature, we calculated the correlation coefficients between precipitation and the factors. In addition, we sorted the top six factors for precipitation forecasts. In order to obtain accurate forecasts, month (factor)-to-month (precipitation) forecast models were applied over the training and validation periods (i.e., summer months over 1979–2011 and 2012–2019, respectively). We compared the standard BPNN with the BPNN using a genetic algorithm-based backpropagation (GABP), support vector machine (SVM) and multiple linear regression (MLR) for the summer precipitation forecast after the model training period, and found that the GABP method is the best among the above methods for precipitation forecasting, with a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of approximately 20% for the YHRB, which is substantially lower than the BPNN, SVM and MLR values. We then selected the best summer precipitation forecast of the GABP month-to-month models by summing up monthly precipitation, in order to obtain the summer scale forecast, which presents a very successful performance in terms of evaluation measures. For example, the basin-averaged MAPE and anomaly rate reach 4.7% and 88.3%, respectively, for the YHRB, which can be a good recommendation for future operational services. It appears that sea surface temperatures (SST) in some key areas dominate the factors for the forecasts. These results indicate the potential of applying GABP to summer precipitation forecasts in the YHRB. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Locating and quantifying the emission source plays a significant role in the emergency management of hazardous gas leak accidents. Due to the lack of a desirable atmospheric dispersion model, current source estimation algorithms cannot meet the requirements of both accuracy and efficiency. In addition, the original optimization algorithm can hardly estimate the source accurately, because of the difficulty in balancing the local searching with the global searching. To deal with these problems, in this paper, a source estimation method is proposed using an artificial neural network (ANN), particle swarm optimization (PSO), and a simulated annealing algorithm (SA). This novel method uses numerous pre-determined scenarios to train the ANN, so that the ANN can predict dispersion accurately and efficiently. Further, the SA is applied in the PSO to improve the global searching ability. The proposed method is firstly tested by a numerical case study based on process hazard analysis software (PHAST), with analysis of receptor configuration and measurement noise. Then, the Indianapolis field case study is applied to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method in practice. Results demonstrate that the hybrid SAPSO algorithm coupled with the ANN prediction model has better performances than conventional methods in both numerical and field cases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of our study is to estimate the parameters M (water content), R (rain rate) and Z (radar reflectivity) with raindrop size distribution by using the neural network method. Our investigations have been conducted in five African localities: Abidjan (Côte d'Ivoire), Boyele (Congo-Brazzaville), Debuncha (Cameroon), Dakar (Senegal) and Niamey (Niger). For the first time, we have predicted the values of the various parameters in each locality after using neural models (LANN) which have been developed with locally obtained disdrometer data. We have shown that each LANN can be used under other latitudes to get satisfactory results. Secondly, we have also constructed a model, using as train-data, a combination of data issued from all five localities. With this last model called PANN, we could obtain satisfactory estimates for all localities. Lastly, we have distinguished between stratiform and convective rain while building the neural networks. In fact, using simulation data from stratiform rain situations, we have obtained smaller root mean square errors (RMSE) between neural values and disdrometer values than using data issued from convective situations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The reflectivity (Z)—rain rate (R) model has not been tested on single polarization radar for estimating monsoon rainfall in Southeast Asia, despite its widespread use for estimating heterogeneous rainfall. The artificial neural network (ANN) regression has been applied to the radar reflectivity data to estimate monsoon rainfall using parametric Z-R models. The 10-min reflectivity data recorded in Kota Bahru radar station (in Malaysia) and hourly rain record in nearby 58 gauge stations during 2013–2015 were used. The three-dimensional nearest neighbor interpolation with altitude correction was applied for pixel matching. The non-linear Levenberg Marquardt (LM) regression, integrated with ANN regression minimized the spatiotemporal variability of the proposed Z-R model. Results showed an improvement in the statistical indicator, when LM and ANN overestimated (6.6%) and underestimated (4.4%), respectively, the mean total rainfall. For all rainfall categories, the ANN model has a positive efficiency ratio of >0.2. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The weighted mean temperature ( T m ) is a key parameter when converting the zenith wet delay (ZWD) to precipitation water vapor (PWV) in ground-based Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) meteorology. T m can be calculated via numerical integration with the atmospheric profile data measured along the zenith direction, but this method is not practical in most cases because it is not easy for general users to get real-time atmospheric profile data. An alternative method to obtain an accurate T m value is to establish regional or global models on the basis of its relations with surface meteorological elements as well as the spatiotemporal variation characteristics of T m . In this study, the complex relations between T m and some of its essentially associated factors including the geographic position and terrain, surface temperature and surface water vapor pressure were considered to develop T m models, and then a non-meteorological-factor T m model (NMFTm), a single-meteorological-factor T m model (SMFTm) and a multi-meteorological-factor T m model (MMFTm) applicable to China and adjacent areas were established by adopting the artificial neural network technique. The generalization performance of new models was strengthened with the help of an ensemble learning method, and the model accuracies were compared with several representative published T m models from different perspectives. The results show that the new models all exhibit consistently better performance than the competing models under the same application conditions tested by the data within the study area. The NMFTm model is superior to the latest non-meteorological model and has the advantages of simplicity and utility. Both the SMFTm model and MMFTm model show higher accuracy than all the published T m models listed in this study; in particular, the MMFTm model is about 14.5% superior to the first-generation neural network-based T m (NN-I) model, with the best accuracy so far in terms of the root-mean-square error. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In regions of complex topography, local flows are difficult to forecast on a routine basis, especially in stable conditions, due to the coarse resolution of operational models. The Cadarache valley (southeastern France) features this sort of complex topography. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is run daily to forecast the weather in this region with a horizontal resolution of 3 km. Such a resolution cannot resolve all topography details of the small Cadarache valley, and therefore its local wind patterns. Other variables, however, that are less dependent on the subgrid topography, are satisfactorily forecasted, and used as inputs to an artificial neural network (ANN) designed to reproduce wind observations inside the valley from WRF forecasts. A variable selection procedure identified 5 key input variables that best drive the ANN. With respect to the WRF output, the ANN significantly improves forecasted low-level winds, both for speed and direction. This study demonstrates the potential for the ANN technique to be used as a correcting tool to forecast weather conditions at the local scale when numerical modeling is performed at a resolution too coarse to take into account the effect of local topography. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Weather forecasting, especially that of extreme climatic events, has gained considerable attention among researchers due to their impacts on natural ecosystems and human life. The applicability of artificial neural networks (ANNs) in non-linear process forecasting has significantly contributed to hydro-climatology. The efficiency of neural network functions depends on the network structure and parameters. This study proposed a new approach to forecasting a one-day-ahead maximum temperature time series for South Korea to discuss the relationship between network specifications and performance by employing various scenarios for the number of parameters and hidden layers in the ANN model. Specifically, a different number of trainable parameters (i.e., the total number of weights and bias) and distinctive numbers of hidden layers were compared for system-performance effects. If the parameter sizes were too large, the root mean square error (RMSE) would be generally increased, and the model's ability was impaired. Besides, too many hidden layers would reduce the system prediction if the number of parameters was high. The number of parameters and hidden layers affected the performance of ANN models for time series forecasting competitively. The result showed that the five-hidden layer model with 49 parameters produced the smallest RMSE at most South Korean stations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]