1. WILL SINGAPORE'S FERTILITY RISE IN THE NEAR FUTURE?
- Author
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Chuan, KohEng
- Subjects
FERTILITY ,COHORT analysis ,REPRODUCTION ,HUMAN fertility - Abstract
Fertility in Singapore has been at lowest-low levels of below 1.3 since 2003. Analysis on fertility trends in Singapore has thus far focused on period fertility. Cohort fertility analysis would be useful in examining whether current cohorts of women of childbearing age are likely to catch up on fertility in the near future. This paper briefly introduces the period fertility trends in Singapore, with an analysis of age-parity specific fertility rates. It then examines, in detail, cohort fertility using official administrative data, as well as census and survey data over time. Estimates of cohort fertility show that low period fertility in Singapore is mainly due to quantum rather than tempo effects. In the absence of any fundamental value changes in society in the near future, the declining cohort fertility means that period fertility in Singapore is unlikely to experience increases to levels higher than a total fertility rate (TFR) of 1.5. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2010
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