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Papua New Guinea (PNG) has faced a foreign exchange (forex) shortage since 2015. The Bank of PNG has resorted to forex rationing to protect reserves, leading to a large backlog of orders and import compression. This paper surveys the structure of PNGʼs forex market and analyses recent market conditions. We argue that a real exchange rate depreciation is required to restore currency convertibility. We develop a forex market model that features a backlog of unmet orders which suggests that a frontloaded depreciation is preferred to an often‐favored gradual adjustment. Empirical results indicate that the governmentʼs large budget deficits have contributed to the forex shortage, highlighting the need for greater fiscal restraint. In the longer term, we argue for more exchange rate flexibility and forex allocation through competitive auction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Open‐air marketplaces are vital to food security, livelihoods, and the national economy in Papua New Guinea (PNG). Over the past 60 years, rapid growth of urban populations, changes in global commodity prices, and the decline in value of the PNG currency have stimulated demand for domestic fresh food. Selling fresh food in marketplaces has also become an attractive way to earn money for rural producers, whose returns on labour on their export crops have declined, and for urban residents struggling to make a living. This in turn has led to significant changes in PNGʼs marketplaces: spatial and temporal changes, changes in what is bought and sold, changes in who is selling, and changes in how food is transacted. In this paper, we bring together research on PNGʼs marketplaces from between 1961 and 2022 to document these changes and their causes, alongside important continuities, and to examine the implications and substantial gaps in our knowledge. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Clientelism is a central feature of politics in Solomon Islands and Papua New Guinea. Most voters vote in search of personalized or localized benefit, and most politicians focus on delivering benefits to their supporters at the expense of national governance. In this article, I explain how clientelism impedes development in both countries. I then describe underdevelopment's role in causing clientelism. I also explain the resulting trap: clientelism causes underdevelopment, and underdevelopment causes clientelism. Because of the trap, clientelism will shape the two countries' politics for the foreseeable future. However, the history of other countries gives cause to believe it can be overcome in the long‐run. In the second half of the paper, I explain how change may occur. I also outline implications for aid policy, looking at how clientelism constrains the impact aid can have, and explaining how donors can act to maximize their impact in a difficult environment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Papua New Guinea's (PNG) resource boom has come to an end. Theory suggests that the real exchange rate (RER) should subsequently depreciate in order to restore internal and external balance. In practice, however, the imposition of foreign exchange controls has led to a large backlog in foreign currency orders suggesting that the RER is significantly overvalued. The purpose of this paper is to inform the ongoing policy debate surrounding this issue by estimating the extent to which PNG's RER is currently misaligned. Our results suggest that the kina should depreciate by about 20% to close the gap between the actual and equilibrium value of the RER. Otherwise PNG is likely to pay high economic costs as real overvaluation sustained through foreign exchange restrictions led to resource misallocation, lower economic growth, black markets, and ultimately a balance of payments crisis in many other developing countries in the past. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Australia supports the control of tuberculosis in Papua New Guinea for reasons of aid effectiveness and a desire to decrease the chance of importing tuberculosis to Australia. This paper analyses the case for this support using both cost-utility and cost-benefit analysis. We reach three conclusions. First, Australia directly benefits from its investment in controlling tuberculosis in Papua New Guinea, with a cost of $ US 13 million (in 2012 prices) over 10 years earning a net present value of $ US 22 million. Second, the longer and more extensive the basic directly observed short course therapy, or basic DOTS, to control tuberculosis, the higher are the returns for Australia. Finally, in addition to surpassing all commonly used benchmarks for being a cost-effective investment for Australia, a basic DOTS expansion also generates a health benefit for Papua New Guinea that compares well as one of the 'ten best health buys' in developing countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article introduces a dataset on ministerial tenure in Papua New Guinea (PNG). The dataset, which spans from 1972 to 2017 and covers 15 governments and 321 ministers, is used to study ministerial duration and stability. To do this, two measures of ministerial duration and two stability indicators have been developed. These measures show that ministerial instability is high in PNG but it has not become worse over time. They also show, however, that instability has varied considerably between governments. Drawing on PNGʼs political history, this article provides a discussion of this variation by examining the circumstances of particular governments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Around the world, policymakers have found it difficult to sustain fee‐free education policies. This article shows how politicians can significantly undermine national fee‐free education policies by redirecting resources to subnational administrations, where funds can be used to shore up political support. To do so it examines changes to political support towards Papua New Guinea's longest running fee‐free education policy. The Tuition Fee Free (TFF) policy was introduced in 2012 under the government of Prime Minister Peter O'Neill before the policy was abolished, and the subsidy supporting it reduced, in 2019 by a new government led by Prime Minister James Marape. Following the introduction of the TFF policy in 2012, national politicians empowered subnational governments to control TFF subsidies, while education and other funding had started to flow to newly created district administrations. This paved the way for politicians to maintain fee‐free education policy in some subnational administrations when the Marape government cut the TFF subsidy. This article suggests that in Papua New Guinea, as in some other developing countries, politicians are incentivised to administer fee‐free education policies at subnational rather than national administrative scales. Sustaining universal fee‐free education policies will require changing these incentives. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article examines use of a Papua New Guinea (PNG) Facebook group, Fly River Forum, with reference to the COVID‐19 global pandemic. From about mid‐March 2020, when the PNG Government declared a State of Emergency, to early May, members of that forum shared an intense interest in the pandemic and were deeply concerned with its possible implications for the country. The great majority of COVID‐related posts, and associated comments, combined delivery of relevant information with scepticism about some of that information. Most participants did not take either religious tropes or conspiracy theories as primary sources of comfort or explanation. We argue that Fly River Forum played a positive role in the ways that people engaged with what could have emerged as a health disaster. More generally, geographically focused sites such as this provide a valuable barometer of local opinion and deserve close attention by politicians and policymakers in PNG. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

When new governments come to power they often claim they will address corruption better than their predecessors. While policymakers and scholars recognise that interrogating these claims is important, few studies have analysed how anti‐corruption commitments made by incoming governments change over time. This article addresses this gap in the literature by comparing anti‐corruption allocations and spending—key indicators of political will—from two of Papua New Guinea's most recent governments: the Peter O'Neill‐led government (2011–2019) and the government led by James Marape (2019 to present). Drawing on this analysis, we argue that policymakers need to monitor and respond to an anti‐corruption funding cycle whereby new governments initially increase budgetary allocations but then, over time, reduce allocations and underpay and undermine anti‐corruption organisations as accusations of corruption and frustration with anti‐corruption efforts intensify. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although official statistics show that an economic recovery is underway in Papua New Guinea, the country's new Prime Minister has stated that the economy is "bleeding and struggling." Disappointing 2019 first‐half‐year revenue results and the reintensification of foreign exchange shortages suggest that last year's (nonresource) recovery, which was based on unsustainable fiscal expansion, has not endured; that this year's growth statistics may need to be further revised downwards; and that the government's growth and fiscal challenges are once again intensifying. The new government's governance reforms are promising; but they are no substitute for reviewing exchange rate and fiscal policy, perhaps by turning to the International Monetary Fund for advice and support to address the problems it has inherited, including in relation to arrears, guarantees, and state‐owned enterprise debt. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Papua New Guinea moved to a limited preferential voting (LPV) system prior to the 2007 national election. The shift from first‐past‐the‐post to preferential voting was intended to encourage the election of candidates with broader mandates from constituents; to reverse the trend of increasing election‐related violence; and to lead to more cooperation between candidates and voting blocs. It was also anticipated that instituting a preferential system would increase the electoral chances of female candidates. This article looks at the impact of the LPV system on women's participation and performances as candidates in Papua New Guinean elections since 2002, focusing in particular on the three general elections in 2007, 2012 and 2017. It argues that the benefits of LPV have not outweighed its costs, at least in terms of women's participation and representation. This demonstrates the limits of institutional reform of this nature in tackling deep‐seated issues relating to political culture. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Papua New Guinea's (PNG's) road system is in a parlous state after decades of neglect. More than half of the roads in the country require urgent rehabilitation. The PNG Government sought from 2003 to address the problem through the establishment of a Road Fund designed to earmark revenue for road management. Development partners supported these efforts, which were similar to reforms implemented in other parts of the world. This article examines the establishment of an independent road fund and road management agency in PNG. It finds that these reforms have not markedly improved road conditions, and that they have been undermined by a lack of support from political leaders and parts of the civil service. The article's conclusion, that the establishment of a road fund is no panacea against political obstacles to road maintenance funding, is relevant to a broader literature concerning the establishment of independent institutions to address governance challenges. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]