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North Africa is acknowledged as one of the world's hottest and most vulnerable regions to climate change. This study addresses a critical gap in comprehensive research on climate change in Algeria, focusing specifically on the Setif high plains in Northeast Algeria. Despite its susceptibility, studies on this region remain scarce. Utilizing the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) dataset and five emission scenarios (SSPs), this research projects climate changes during the twenty-first century (2030–2050–2070). Results indicate significant temperature increases and precipitation declines. SSP5-5.8 presents the most pessimistic outlook, foreseeing the highest temperature elevations (24.52 to 27.18°C, 31.83 to 34.43°C, and 17.30 to 20°C for average, maximum, and minimum temperatures), and the largest precipitation decreases (65.9% to 60.94%). Conversely, SSP1-1.9 offers a more optimistic perspective with smaller temperature increments (24.21 to 24.36°C, 31.55 to 31.69°C, and 17.01 to 17.10°C) and a milder precipitation reduction (68.07% to 71.97%). These findings underscore a warming trend and reduced precipitation, emphasizing the urgent need for understanding climate change impacts in the region. Addressing these challenges is crucial for devising effective adaptation and resilience measures. The agricultural sector, a vital aspect of the region's economy, may benefit from adjustments such as reducing rainfed crop cultivation and adopting intensive farming practices. Moreover, advancements in biotechnology and climate predictions offer promising avenues for adapting agricultural water management to the changing climate. This research not only contributes to the knowledge base on climate change but also provides actionable insights for policymakers and practitioners, aiding in the development of sustainable strategies to mitigate risks and foster resilience in the face of a changing climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study aims to evaluate the performance of six models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models in reproducing the monthly cycle of precipitation and maximum surface air temperature of the Hodna region in central Algeria during the baseline period 1901–2014. The six climate models selected are as follows: ACCESS-ESM4, BCC-CSM2-MR, CanESM5, GFDL-ESM1-5, IPSL-EM6A-LR, and MIROC6. The best-performing models are determined by comparing observation (CRU-TS) and historical data. The evaluation procedure is performed using the compromise programming method and multiple statistical metrics including mean bias error (MB), root mean square error (RMSE), and pattern determination coefficient (R2). The first two best-performing models are used for precipitation (IPSL-EM6A-LR) and maximum surface air temperature (GFDL-ESM4). Four future periods are considered: 2021–2040, 2041–2060, 2061–2080, and 2081–2100 for SSP1-2.6 and SSP3-7.0. For the most optimist scenario, the maximum surface air temperature may increase in the next decades in comparison with observed and simulated values by 2 °C, but then almost stabilizes and reaches an average monthly increase of 28.53 °C. The same is shown in the precipitation projection of 48.75 mm/month by 2100. Eventually, the SSP1-2.6 scenario does not show any current signs in the current Hodna basin climate on a global scale. Future precipitation projections under Hodna's SSP3-7.0 may decrease with an average value of 10 mm in a monthly scale. This decrease becomes mostly in the center and southeastern parts. Maximum surface air temperature can rise steadily from 28 to 31 °C and reach its maximum of 4.5 °C by 2100. The outcomes of this study will evaluate how projected changes will affect droughts and floods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]