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Under Condition-Based Maintenance, the Proportional Hazards Model (PHM) uses Cox’s partial regression and vital signs as covariates to estimate risk for predictive management. However, maintenance faces challenges when dealing with a multi-covariate scenario due to the impact of the conditions’ heterogeneity on the intervention decisions, especially when the combined measurement lacks a physical interpretation. Therefore, we propose an advanced framework based on a PHM-machine learning formulation integrating four key areas: covariate prioritization, covariate weight estimation, state band definition, and the generation of an enhanced predictive intervention policy. The paper validates the framework’s effectiveness through a comparative analysis of reliability metrics in a case study using real condition monitoring data from an energy company. While the traditional log-likelihood minimization may fall short in covariate weight estimation, sensitivity analyses reveal that the proposed policy using IPOPT and a non-scaler transformation results in consistent prediction quality. Given the challenge of interpreting merged covariates, the scheme yields improved results compared to expert criteria. Finally, the advanced framework strengthens the PHM modeling by coherently integrating diverse covariate scenarios for predictive maintenance purposes.

Complex aviation systems’ integrity deteriorates over time due to operational factors; hence, the ability to forecast component remaining useful life (RUL) is vital to their optimal operation. Data-driven prognostic models are essential for system RUL prediction. These models benefit run-to-failure datasets the most. Thus, significant factors that could affect systematic integrity must be examined to quantify the operational component of RUL. To expand predictive approaches, the authors of this research developed a novel method for calculating the RUL of a group of aircraft engines using the N-CMAPSS dataset, which provides simulated degradation trajectories under real flight conditions. They offered bootstrap trees and hyperbolic tangent NtanH(3)Boost(20) neural networks as prognostic alternatives. The hyperbolic tangent boosted neural network uses damage propagation modelling based on earlier research and adds two accuracy levels. The suggested neural network architecture activates with the hyperbolic tangent function. This extension links the deterioration process to its operating history, improving degradation modelling. During validation, models accurately predicted observed flight cycles with 95–97% accuracy. We can use this work to combine prognostic approaches to extend the lifespan of critical aircraft systems and assist maintenance approaches in reducing operational and environmental hazards, all while maintaining normal operation. The proposed methodology yields promising results, making it suitable for adoption due to its relevance to prognostic difficulties.

The state of health (SOH) and remaining useful life (RUL) of lithium-ion batteries are critical indicators for assessing battery reliability and safety management. However, these two indicators are difficult to measure directly, posing a challenge to ensure safe and stable battery operation. This paper proposes a method for estimating SOH and predicting RUL of lithium-ion batteries by charging feature extraction and ridge regression. First, three sets of health feature parameters are extracted from the charging voltage curve. The relationship between these health features and maximum battery capacity is quantitatively evaluated using the correlation analysis method. Then, the ridge regression method is employed to establish the battery aging model and estimate SOH. Meanwhile, a multiscale prediction model is developed to predict changes in health features as the number of charge-discharge cycles increases, combining with the battery aging model to perform multistep SOH estimation for predicting RUL. Finally, the accuracy and adaptability of the proposed method are confirmed by two battery datasets obtained from varying operating conditions. Experimental results demonstrate that the prediction curves can approximate the real values closely, the mean absolute error (MAE) and root mean square error (RMSE) calculations of SOH remain below 0.02, and the maximum absolute error (AE) of RUL is no more than two cycles.

This study introduces a novel predictive methodology for diagnosing and predicting gear problems in DC motors. Leveraging AdaBoost with weak classifiers and regressors, the diagnostic aspect categorizes the machine’s current operational state by analyzing time–frequency features extracted from motor current signals. AdaBoost classifiers are employed as weak learners to effectively identify fault severity conditions. Meanwhile, the prognostic aspect utilizes AdaBoost regressors, also acting as weak learners trained on the same features, to predict the machine’s future state and estimate its remaining useful life. A key contribution of this approach is its ability to address the challenge of limited historical data for electrical equipment by optimizing AdaBoost parameters with minimal data. Experimental validation is conducted using a dedicated setup to collect comprehensive data. Through illustrative examples using experimental data, the efficacy of this method in identifying malfunctions and precisely forecasting the remaining lifespan of DC motors is demonstrated.

On top of the condition-based maintenance (CBM) practice for rotating machinery, the robust estimation of remaining useful life (RUL) for rolling-element bearings (REB) is of particular interest. The failure of a single bearing often results in secondary defects in the connected structure and catastrophic system failures. The prediction of RUL facilitates proactive maintenance planning to ensure system reliability and minimize financial loss due to unscheduled downtime. In this paper, to acquire early and reliable estimations of useful life, the RUL prediction of REBs is formulated into nonlinear degradation state estimation tackled by the combination of the envelope spectral indicator (ESI) and extended Kalman filter (EKF). By fusing the spectral energy of the bearing fault characteristic frequencies (FCFs) in the averaged envelope spectrum, the ESI is crafted to remove the interference from rotor-dynamics and reveal the bearing deterioration process. Once the fault is identified, the recursive Bayesian method based on EKF is utilized for estimating the bearing end-of-life time via the exponential state-space model. The distinctive advantage of the proposed approach lies in its ability to make an early prediction of RUL using a small number of ESI observations, offering an efficient practice for predictive health management at the early stage of bearing fault. The performance of the proposed method is validated using publicly available experimental bearing vibration data across three different operating conditions.

With the wide utilization of lithium-ion batteries in the fields of electronic devices, electric vehicles, aviation, and aerospace, the prediction of remaining useful life (RUL) for lithium batteries is important. Considering the influence of the environment and manufacturing process, the degradation features differ between the historical batteries and the target ones, and such differences are called individual differences. Currently, lithium battery RUL prediction methods generally use the characteristics of a large group of historical samples to represent the target battery. However, these methods may be vulnerable to individual differences between historical batteries and target ones, which leads to poor accuracy. In order to solve the issue, this paper proposes a prediction method based on transfer learning that fully takes individual differences into consideration. It utilizes an extreme learning machine (ELM) twice. In the first stage, the relationship between the capacity degradation rate and the remaining capacity is constructed by an ELM to obtain the adjusting factor. Then, an ELM-based transfer learning method is used to establish the connection between the remaining capacity and the RUL. Finally, the prediction result is adjusted by the adjusting factor obtained in the first stage. Compared with existing typical data-driven models, the proposed method has better accuracy and efficiency.

Accurate remaining useful life (RUL) prediction is one of the most challenging problems in the prognostics of turbofan engines. Recently, RUL prediction methods for turbofan engines mainly involve data-driven models. Preprocessing the sensor data is essential for the performance of the prognostic models. Most studies on turbofan engines use piecewise linear (PwL) labeling, which starts with a constant initial RUL value in normal/healthy operating time. In this study, we designed a prognostic procedure that includes difference-based feature construction, change-point-detection-based PwL labeling, and a 1D-CNN-LSTM (one-dimensional–convolutional neural network–long short-term memory) hybrid neural network model for RUL prediction. The procedure was evaluated on the subset FD001 of the C-MAPSS dataset. The proposed procedure was compared with machine learning and deep learning models with and without the new difference feature. Also, the results were compared with the studies that used similar labeling approaches. Our analysis of the numerical results underscores the clear superiority of the proposed 1D-CNN-LSTM model with the difference feature in RUL prediction, with a score of 437.2 and an RMSE value of 16.1. This result illustrates the superior predictive capability of the 1D-CNN-LSTM model, which outperformed traditional machine learning methods and one of the earliest deep learning methods. These findings emphasize the superior predictive capability of the 1D-CNN-LSTM model and underline the potential of the feature engineering process for more accurate and robust RUL prediction in the context of turbofan engine prognostics.

Turbine blades are crucial components exposed to harsh conditions, such as high temperatures, high pressures, and high rotational speeds. It is of great significance to accurately predict the life of blades for reducing maintenance cost and improving the reliability of gas turbine systems. A rapid and accurate blade life assessment method holds significant importance in the maintenance plan of gas turbine engines. In this paper, a novel on-line remaining useful life (RUL) prediction method for high-temperature blades is proposed based on 3D reconstruction technology and data-driven surrogate mode. Firstly, the 3D reconstruction technology was employed to establish the geometric model of real turbine blades, and the fluid–thermal–solid analysis under actual operational conditions was carried out in ANSYS software. Six checkpoints were selected to estimate the RUL according to the stress–strain distribution of the blade surface. The maximum equivalent stress was 1481.51 MPa and the highest temperature was 1393.42 K. Moreover, the fatigue-creep lifetime was calculated according to the parameters of the selected checkpoints. The RUL error between the simulation model and commercial software (Control and Engine Health Management (CEHM)) was less than 0.986%. Secondly, different data-driven surrogate models (BP, DNN, and LSTM algorithms) were developed according to the results from numerical simulation. The maximum relative errors of BP, DNN, and LSTM models were 0.030%, 0.019%, and 0.014%. LSTM demonstrated the best performance in predicting the RUL of turbine blades with time-series characteristics. Finally, the LSTM model was utilized for predicting the RUL within a gas turbine real operational process that involved five start–stop cycles.

As the heart of aircraft, the aero-engine is not only the main power source for aircraft flight but also an essential guarantee for the safe flight of aircraft. Therefore, it is of great significance to find effective methods for remaining useful life (RUL) prediction for aero-engines in order to avoid accidents and reduce maintenance costs. With the development of deep learning, data-driven approaches show great potential in dealing with the above problem. Although many attempts have been made, few works consider the error of the point prediction result caused by uncertainties. In this paper, we propose a novel RUL probability prediction approach for aero-engines with prediction uncertainties fully considered. Before forecasting, a principal component analysis (PCA) is first utilized to cut down the dimension of sensor data and extract the correlation between multivariate data to reduce the network computation. Then, a multi-layer bidirectional gate recurrent unit (BiGRU) is constructed to predict the RUL of the aero-engine, while prediction uncertainties are quantized by the improved variational Bayesian inference (IVBI) with a Gaussian mixture distribution. The proposed method can give not only the point prediction of RUL but also the confidence interval of the prediction result, which is very helpful for real-world applications. Finally, the experimental study illustrates that the proposed method is feasible and superior to several other comparative models.

Predicting the remaining useful life (RUL) of batteries can help users optimize battery management strategies for better usage planning. However, the RUL prediction accuracy of lithium-ion batteries will face challenges due to fewer data samples available for the new type of battery. This paper proposed a transferable prediction approach for the RUL of lithium-ion batteries based on small samples to reduce time in preparing battery aging data and improve prediction accuracy. This approach, based on improvements from the adaptive boosting algorithm, is called regression tree transfer adaptive boosting (RT-TrAdaBoost). It combines the advantages of ensemble learning and transfer learning and achieves high computational efficiency. The RT-TrAdaBoost approach takes the charging voltage and temperature curve as input and utilizes the classification and regression tree (CART) as the base learner, which has better feature capture ability. In the experiment, the working condition migration experiment and battery type migration experiment are conducted on non-overlapping datasets. The verified results revealed that the RT-TrAdaBoost approach could transfer not only the battery aging knowledge between various working conditions but also realize the RUL migration prediction from lithium iron phosphate battery to lithium cobalt oxide battery. The analysis of error and computation time demonstrates the proposed method’s high efficiency and speed.

The accurate prediction of the remaining useful life (RUL) of aircraft engines is crucial for improving engine safety and reducing maintenance costs. To tackle the complex issues of nonlinearity, high dimensionality, and difficult-to-model degradation processes in aircraft engine monitoring parameters, a new method for predicting the RUL of aircraft engines based on the random forest algorithm and a Bayes-optimized multilayer perceptron (MLP) was proposed here. First, the random forest algorithm was used to evaluate the importance of historical monitoring parameters of the engine, selecting the key features that significantly impact the engine’s lifetime operation cycle. Then, the single exponent smoothing (SES) algorithm was introduced for smoothing the extracted features to reduce the interference of original noise. Next, an MLP-based RUL prediction model was established using a neural network. The Bayes’ online parameter updating formula was used to solve the objective function and return the optimal parameters of the MLP training model and the minimum value of the evaluation index RMSE. Finally, the probability density function of the predicted RUL value of the aircraft engine was calculated to obtain the RUL prediction results.The effectiveness of the proposed method was verified and analyzed using the C-MAPSS dataset for turbofan engines. Experimental results show that, compared with several other methods, the RMSE of the proposed method in the FD001 test set decreases by 6.1%, demonstrating that the method can effectively improve the accuracy of RUL prediction for aircraft engines.

In recent years, structural health monitoring, starting from accelerometric data, is a method which has become widely adopted. Among the available techniques, machine learning is one of the most innovative and promising, supported by the continuously increasing computational capacity of current computers. The present work investigates the potential benefits of a framework based on supervised learning suitable for quantifying the corroded thickness of a structural system, herein uniformly applied to a reference steel column. The envisaged framework follows a hybrid approach where the training data are generated from a parametric and stochastic finite element model. The learning activity is performed by a support vector machine with Bayesian optimization of the hyperparameters, in which a penalty matrix is introduced to minimize the probability of missed alarms. Then, the estimated structural health conditions are used to update an exponential degradation model with random coefficients suitable for providing a prediction of the remaining useful life of the simulated corroded column. The results obtained show the potentiality of the proposed framework and its possible future extension for different types of damage and structural types.

The optimization of predictive maintenance relies mainly on the reduction of costs and risks, which can be of various types. The evaluation of risks cannot be realized independently of the psychology state and cognitive knowledge of the decision maker. In this article, we demonstrate this through the proposal of a methodology that tackles both optimization of maintenance and estimation of failure risks at the same time. The methodology takes as input the remaining useful life of the system at instant t and determines the optimal inspection step and the threshold of remaining useful life for predictive maintenance. The originality of the methodology consists of using a theory inspired by behavioral economics called prospect theory. Prospect theory allows modeling the outcome of a decision making by considering several aspects related to the decision maker, mainly loss aversion and a tendency to overestimate events with low probability of occurrence but with high economic losses. A case study was then developed where both cases were considered: with prospect theory and without prospect theory. A sensitivity analysis of the results under variation of some input parameters was carried out in a final step to confirm the consistency of the results and show the interest of prospect theory.

Remaining useful life (RUL) prediction is central to prognostics and reliability assessment of light-emitting diode (LED) systems. Their unknown long-term service life remaining when subject to specific operating conditions is affected by various sources of uncertainty stemming from production of individual system components, application of the whole system, measurement and operation. To enhance the reliability of model-based predictions, it is essential to account for all of these uncertainties in a systematic manner. This paper proposes a Bayesian hierarchical modelling framework for inverse uncertainty quantification (UQ) in LED operation under thermal loading. The main focus is on the LED systems’ operational thermal resistances, which are subject to system and application variability. Posterior inference is based on a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling scheme using the Metropolis–Hastings (MH) algorithm. Performance of the method is investigated for simulated data, which allow to focus on different UQ aspects in applications. Findings from an application scenario in which the impact of disregarded uncertainty on RUL prediction is discussed highlight the need for a comprehensive UQ to allow for reliable predictions.

As the service time of mechanical devices is getting longer and longer, the safe and reliability evaluation during operation is highlighted. Moreover, real-time reliability evaluation with consideration of multi-state performance degradation becomes increasingly important nowadays, since the consequences of sudden failures are more unacceptable than ever before. The Markov process is a commonly used model in multi-state reliability evaluation. However, little research of the Markov model can deal with multi-source monitoring data and time-varying properties of device performance degradation, as well as the scientific state number determination. In this article, a real-time reliability evaluation model based on automatic partition and the time-varying Markov chain is proposed to solve the problems of the scientific state number selection and time-varying properties description with the state transition matrix of the Markov process, together with taking advantage of multi-source information. The effectiveness of the proposed algorithm is demonstrated on the bearing with life-long vibration and temperature data. It shows that the proposed automatic partition time-varying Markov model can decide the state number automatically according to the trend of life-long data, and evaluate real-time reliability based on equipment operating hours and operating status. The result of predicted remaining useful life obtained by the proposed model is more accurate, and it also shows great superiority in conformity with reality.

An efficient Remaining Useful Life (RUL) prediction method is one of the most important features of a condition-based maintenance system. A running machine’s RUL prognosis in its real-time is a challenging task, especially when there is no historic failure data available for that particular machine. In this paper, an online RUL of an in-operation industrial slurry pump having no historical failure data has been predicted. At first, the available raw vibration datasets were filtered out for valid datasets. The obtained valid datasets were utilized for constructing the Health Degradation Trends (HDTs) using principal component analysis and a moving average method. Then, a novel procedure for automatically selecting the HDT’s data points for initiating the iteration process of prediction was formulated. Afterward, a hybrid deep LSTM model embedded with a smart learning rate mechanism was developed for estimating the online RUL using the selected points of HDTs. The online RUL prediction results produced by the developed model were quite satisfactory when they were compared with other online RUL prediction methods.

This paper proposes a method on predicting the remaining useful life (RUL) of a concrete piston of a concrete pump truck based on probability statistics and data-driven approaches. Firstly, the average useful life of the concrete piston is determined by probability distribution fitting using actual life data. Secondly, according to condition monitoring data of the concrete pump truck, a concept of life coefficient of the concrete piston is proposed to represent the influence of the loading condition on the actual useful life of individual concrete pistons, and different regression models are established to predict the RUL of the concrete pistons. Finally, according to the prediction result of the concrete piston at different life stages, a replacement warning point is established to provide support for the inventory management and replacement plan of the concrete piston.

Rotating machines such as induction motors are crucial parts of most industrial systems. The prognostic health management of induction motor rotors plays an essential role in increasing electrical machine reliability and safety, especially in critical industrial sectors. This paper presents a new approach for rotating machine fault prognosis under broken rotor bar failure, which involves the modeling of the failure mechanism, the health indicator construction, and the remaining useful life prediction. This approach combines signal processing techniques, inherent metrics, and principal component analysis to monitor the induction motor. Time- and frequency-domains features allowing for tracking the degradation trend of motor critical components that are extracted from torque, stator current, and speed signals. The most meaningful features are selected using inherent metrics, while two health indicators representing the degradation process of the broken rotor bar are constructed by applying the principal component analysis. The estimation of the remaining useful life is then obtained using the degradation model. The performance of the prediction results is evaluated using several criteria of prediction accuracy. A set of synthetic data collected from a degraded Simulink model of the rotor through simulations is used to validate the proposed approach. Experimental results show that using the developed prognostic methodology is a powerful strategy to improve the prognostic of induction motor degradation.

Composite materials are extensively used in aircraft structures, wherein they are subjected to cyclic loads and subsequently impact-induced damages. Progressive fatigue degradation can lead to catastrophic failure. This highlights the need for an efficient prognostic framework to predict crack propagation in the field of structural health monitoring (SHM) of composite structures to improve functional safety and reliability. However, achieving good accuracy in crack growth prediction is challenging due to uncertainties in the material properties, loading conditions, and environmental factors. This paper presents a particle-filter-based online prognostic framework for damage prognosis of composite laminates due to crack-induced delamination and fiber breakage. An optimized Paris law model is used to describe the damage propagation in glass-fiber-reinforced polymer (GFRP) laminates subject to low-velocity impacts. Our proposed methodology deduces the jump energy/inflection point online wherein the damage growth switches from rapid degradation to slow degradation. The prediction results obtained are compared with the conventional Paris law model to validate the need for an optimized bimodal crack growth propagation model. The root mean square error (RMSE) and remaining useful life (RUL) prediction errors are used as the prognostic metrics.

Battery lifetime prediction is a promising direction for the development of next-generation smart energy storage systems. However, complicated degradation mechanisms, different assembly processes, and various operation conditions of the batteries bring tremendous challenges to battery life prediction. In this work, charge/discharge data of 12 solid-state lithium polymer batteries were collected with cycle lives ranging from 71 to 213 cycles. The remaining useful life of these batteries was predicted by using a machine learning algorithm, called symbolic regression. After populations of breed, mutation, and evolution training, the test accuracy of the quantitative prediction of cycle life reached 87.9%. This study shows the great prospect of a data-driven machine learning algorithm in the prediction of solid-state battery lifetimes, and it provides a new approach for the batch classification, echelon utilization, and recycling of batteries.

In manufacturing, cutting tools gradually wear out during the cutting process and decrease in cutting precision. A cutting tool has to be replaced if its degradation exceeds a certain threshold, which is determined by the required cutting precision. To effectively schedule production and maintenance actions, it is vital to model the wear process of cutting tools and predict their remaining useful life (RUL). However, it is difficult to determine the RUL of cutting tools with cutting precision as a failure criterion, as cutting precision is not directly measurable. This paper proposed a RUL prediction method for a cutting tool, developed based on a degradation model, with the roughness of the cutting surface as a failure criterion. The surface roughness was linked to the wearing process of a cutting tool through a random threshold, and accounts for the impact of the dynamic working environment and variable materials of working pieces. The wear process is modeled using a random-effects inverse Gaussian (IG) process. The degradation rate is assumed to be unit-specific, considering the dynamic wear mechanism and a heterogeneous population. To adaptively update the model parameters for online RUL prediction, an expectation–maximization (EM) algorithm has been developed. The proposed method is illustrated using an example study. The experiments were performed on specimens of 7109 aluminum alloy by milling in the normalized state. The results reveal that the proposed method effectively evaluates the RUL of cutting tools according to the specified surface roughness, therefore improving cutting quality and efficiency.

Estimating the remaining useful life (RUL) of components is a crucial task to enhance reliability, safety, productivity, and to reduce maintenance cost. In general, predicting the RUL of a component includes constructing a health indicator (HI) to infer the current condition of the component, and modelling the degradation process in order to estimate the future behavior. Although many signal processing and data-driven methods have been proposed to construct the HI, most of the existing methods are based on manual feature extraction techniques and require the prior knowledge of experts, or rely on a large amount of failure data. Therefore, in this study, a new data-driven method based on the convolutional autoencoder (CAE) is presented to construct the HI. For this purpose, the continuous wavelet transform (CWT) technique was used to convert the raw acquired vibrational signals into a two-dimensional image; then, the CAE model was trained by the healthy operation dataset. Finally, the Mahalanobis distance (MD) between the healthy and failure stages was measured as the HI. The proposed method was tested on a benchmark bearing dataset and compared with several other traditional HI construction models. Experimental results indicate that the constructed HI exhibited a monotonically increasing degradation trend and had good performance in terms of detecting incipient faults.

Predicting the remaining useful life (RUL) of mechanical bearings is a challenging industrial task since RUL can differ even for the same equipment due to many uncertainties such as operating condition, model inaccuracy, and sensory noise in various industrial applications. This paper proposes the RUL prediction method combining analytical model-based and data-driven approaches to forecast when a failure will occur based on the time series data of bearings. Feature importance ranking and principal component analysis construct a reliable and predictable health indicator from various statistical time, frequency, and time–frequency domain features of the observed signal. The adaptive sliding window method then optimizes the parameters of the degradation model based on the ridge regression of the time series sequence with the sliding window. The proposed adaptive scheme provides significant performance improvement in terms of the RUL estimation accuracy and robustness against the possible errors of the degradation model compared to the traditional Bayesian approaches.

The ageing process of medium voltage power connectors can lead to important power system faults. An on-line prediction of the remaining useful life (RUL) is a convenient strategy to prevent such failures, thus easing the application of predictive maintenance plans. The electrical resistance of the connector is the most widely used health indicator for condition monitoring and RUL prediction, even though its measurement is a challenging task because of its low value, which typically falls in the range of a few micro-ohms. At the present time, the RUL of power connectors is not estimated, since their electrical parameters are not monitored because medium voltage connectors are considered cheap and secondary devices in power systems, despite they play a critical role, so their failure can lead to important power flow interruptions with the consequent safety risks and economic losses. Therefore, there is an imperious need to develop on-line RUL prediction strategies. This paper develops an on-line method to solve this issue, by predicting the RUL of medium voltage connectors based on the degradation trajectory of the electrical resistance, which is characterized by analyzing the electrical resistance time series data by means of the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) method. The approach proposed in this paper allows applying predictive maintenance plans, since the RUL enables determining when the power connector must be replaced by a new one. Experimental results obtained from several connectors illustrate the feasibility and accuracy of the proposed approach for an on-line RUL prediction of power connectors.

One of the challenges in predicting the remaining useful life (RUL) of rolling element bearings (REBs) is determining a proper failure threshold (FT). In the literature, the FT is usually assumed to be a constant value of an extracted feature from the vibration signals. In this study, a degradation indicator was extracted to describe damage to REBs by applying principal component analysis (PCA) to their run-to-failure data. The relationship between this degradation indicator and the vibration peak was represented through a joint probability distribution using statistical copula models. The FT was proposed as a probability distribution based on the fluctuation increase in the vibration trend. A set of run-to-failure tests was conducted. Applying the proposed method to this dataset led to various FTs for the different failure modes that occurred. It is shown that, for inner race degradation, a higher FT can be assumed than for rolling element degradation. This could help extend the lives of REBs regarding the degrading elements. A dataset for an industrial machine was also analyzed and it is shown that the proposed model estimated a reasonable and proper FT in an actual case study.

Blade damage accounts for a substantial part of all failure events occurring at gas-turbine-engine power plants. Current operation and maintenance (O&M) practices typically use preventive maintenance approaches with fixed intervals, which involve high costs for repair and replacement activities, and substantial revenue losses. The recent development and evolution of condition-monitoring techniques and the fact that an increasing number of turbines in operation are equipped with online monitoring systems offer the decision maker a large amount of information on the blades’ structural health. So, predictive maintenance becomes feasible. It has the potential to predict the blades’ remaining life in order to support O&M decisions for avoiding major failure events. This paper presents a surrogate model and methodology for estimating the remaining life of a turbine blade. The model can be used within a predictive maintenance decision framework to optimize maintenance planning for the blades’ lifetime.

Inaccurate state-of-health (SoH) estimation of battery can lead to over-discharge as the actual depth of discharge will be deeper, or a more-than-necessary number of charges as the calculated SoC will be underestimated, depending on whether the inaccuracy in the maximum stored charge is over or under estimated. Both can lead to increased degradation of a battery. Inaccurate SoH can also lead to the continuous use of battery below 80% actual SoH that could lead to catastrophic failures. Therefore, an accurate and rapid on-line SoH estimation method for lithium ion batteries, under different operating conditions such as varying ambient temperatures and discharge rates, is important. This work develops a method for this purpose, and the method combines the electrochemistry-based electrical model and semi-empirical capacity fading model on a discharge curve of a lithium-ion battery for the estimation of its maximum stored charge capacity, and thus its state of health. The method developed produces a close form that relates SoH with the number of charge-discharge cycles as well as operating temperatures and currents, and its inverse application allows us to estimate the remaining useful life of lithium ion batteries (LiB) for a given SoH threshold level. The estimation time is less than 5 s as the combined model is a closed-form model, and hence it is suitable for real time and on-line applications.

The field of prognostic maintenance aims at predicting the remaining time for a system or component to continue being used under the desired performance. This time is usually named as Remaining Useful Life (RUL). The current study proposes a novel approach for the RUL estimation of coating segments placed on a hot rolling mill machine. A prediction method was developed, providing real-time updates of the RUL prediction during the rolling milling process. The proposed approach performs energy analysis on measurements of segment surface temperatures and hydraulic forces. It uses nonparametric statistical processes to update the predictions, within a prediction horizon/window, indicating the number of remaining products to be processed. To assess the probability of failure within the defined prediction window, Maximum Likelihood Estimation is used. The proposed methodology was implemented in a software prototype in the MATLAB environment and tested in an industrial use case coming from a steel parts manufacturer, facilitating testing and validation of the suggested approach. Real-world data were acquired from the operational machine, while the validation results support that the proposed methodology demonstrates reasonable performance and robustness against product type variations.

Prognosis techniques for prediction of remaining useful life (RUL) are of crucial importance to the management of complex systems for they can lead to appropriate maintenance interventions and improvements in reliability. While various data-driven methods have been introduced to predict the remaining useful life (RUL) of machinery systems or batteries, no research has been reported on the remaining useful strength (RUS) prediction of silicon carbide fiber reinforced silicon carbide matrix (SiCf-SiCm) materials with pivotal role in its potential usage as a structural material in nuclear reactors and turbine engines. Knowledge of its degradation process is of the utmost importance to the manufacturers. For this purpose, two approaches based on the machine-learning techniques of random-forest (RF) and convolutional neural network (CNN) are proposed to predict the RUS of SiCf-SiCm using only acoustic emission (AE) signals generated during the material’s stress applying process. Experimental results show that the CNN models achieved better predictive performance than the RF models but the latter with expert-engineered features achieves better prediction for AE signals in the early stage of degradation. Additionally, our results demonstrate that both models can correctly predict the SiCf-SiCm RUS as evaluated by our robust testing method from which the best average root mean square error (RMSE) and Pearson correlation coefficient of 3.55 ksi units and 0.85 were obtained.

The efficient data investigation for fast and accurate remaining useful life prediction of aircraft engines can be considered as a very important task for maintenance operations. In this context, the key issue is how an appropriate investigation can be conducted for the extraction of important information from data-driven sequences in high dimensional space in order to guarantee a reliable conclusion. In this paper, a new data-driven learning scheme based on an online sequential extreme learning machine algorithm is proposed for remaining useful life prediction. Firstly, a new feature mapping technique based on stacked autoencoders is proposed to enhance features representations through an accurate reconstruction. In addition, to attempt into addressing dynamic programming based on environmental feedback, a new dynamic forgetting function based on the temporal difference of recursive learning is introduced to enhance dynamic tracking ability of newly coming data. Moreover, a new updated selection strategy was developed in order to discard the unwanted data sequences and to ensure the convergence of the training model parameters to their appropriate values. The proposed approach is validated on the C-MAPSS dataset where experimental results confirm that it yields satisfactory accuracy and efficiency of the prediction model compared to other existing methods.

Engineering systems typically go through complicated degradation processes, partially due to their multiple operating modes. Therefore, how to accurately estimate their remaining useful life is a critical issue. To address this challenge, a hybrid degradation modeling and prognostic method for the multi-modal system is proposed. Firstly, the cumulative dynamic differential health indicator is constructed for the multi-modal switching system using a multi-objective optimization approach. The long-term cumulative degradation assessment model is constructed based on the gated recurrent unit. Then, considering that the damage in the latest stage has a significant impact on the remaining useful life, the time window is used to extract local features of the sequence, including energy features and statistical features. The latest stage degradation is predicted based on the light gradient boosting machine. Finally, model averaging is used to integrate the two predicted results, which is expected to improve the prognostic robustness. The proposed model is evaluated with synthetic analysis and NASA turbofan aero-engine datasets. Extensive experimental results demonstrate the proposed method provides a better characterization of the degradation status of the system and provides a higher estimation accuracy than existing methods.

The railway pantograph carbon contact strip (PCCS) plays a critical role in collecting the electric current from the catenary to guarantee the steady power supply for the train. The catenary contacts with the PCCS and slides from one side to another side when the train runs on the track, which generates the wear on the surface of the PCCS. The thickness of the PCCS cannot be smaller than a lower limit for the sake of safety. Therefore, the remaining useful life (RUL) prediction of the PCCS is beneficial for the pantograph maintenance and inventory management. In this paper, the wear data from Guangzhou Metro are analyzed in the first place. After that, the challenge of predicting the RUL for PCCS from the unequal interval wear data is addressed. A Wiener-process-based wear model and the unequal interval weighted grey linear regression combined model (UIWGLRCM) are proposed for the RUL prediction of the PCCS. The case studies demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method via a comparison of RUL prediction with another available method.

As crucial rotary components of high-speed trains, wheel treads in realistic operation environment usually suffer severe cyclic shocks, which damage the health status and ultimately cause safety risks. Timely and precise health prognosis based on vibration signals is an effective technology to mitigate such risks. In this work, a new parameter-related Wiener process model is proposed to capture multiple uncertainties existed in on-site prognosis of wheel treads. The proposed model establishes a quantitative relationship between degradation rate and variations, and integrates uncertainties via heterogeneity analysis of both criterions. A maximum-likelihood-based method is presented to initialize the unknown model parameters, followed by a recursive update algorithm with fully utilization of historical lifetime information. An investigation of real-world wheel tread signals demonstrates the superiority of the proposed model in accuracy improvement.

Machinery diagnostics and prognostics usually involve the prediction process of fault-types and remaining useful life (RUL) of a machine, respectively. The process of developing a data-driven diagnostics and prognostics method involves some fundamental subtasks such as data rebalancing, feature extraction, dimension reduction, and machine learning. In general, the best performing algorithm and the optimal hyper-parameters suitable for each subtask are varied across the characteristics of datasets. Therefore, it is challenging to develop a general diagnostic/prognostic framework that can automatically identify the best subtask algorithms and the optimal involved parameters for a given dataset. To resolve this problem, we propose a new framework based on an ensemble of genetic algorithms (GAs) that can be used for both the fault-type classification and RUL prediction. Our GA is combined with a specific machine-learning method and then tries to select the best algorithm and optimize the involved parameter values in each subtask. In addition, our method constructs an ensemble of various prediction models found by the GAs. Our method was compared to a traditional grid-search over three benchmark datasets of the fault-type classification and the RUL prediction problems and showed a significantly better performance than the latter. Taken together, our framework can be an effective approach for the fault-type and RUL prediction of various machinery systems.

Due to the accelerating pace of environmental concerns and fear of the depletion of conventional sources of energy, researchers are working on finding renewable energy sources of power for different axes of life. The transportation sector has intervened in this field and introduced hybrid electric vehicles. Many complaints have been mentioned concerning fault detection and identification in the vehicle to ensure its safety, reliability and availability. Diagnosis has not been able to overcome all these concerns, and research has shifted toward prognosis, where the manufacturing sector is urged to integrate fault prognosis in the vehicle’s electrical powertrain. In this article, prognosis of the vehicle’s electrical machine is treated using a hidden Markov model after modeling the electrical machine using the finite element method. Permanent magnet machines are preferable in this application. The modeling of the machine is a combination of the electromagnetic, thermal and vibration finite element models. The considered faults are demagnetization, turn-to-turn short circuit and eccentricity. A strategy for the calculation of the remaining useful life (RUL) is suggested when a turn-to-turn short circuit fault occurs.

Remaining useful life (RUL) prediction is a challenging research task in prognostics and receives extensive attention from academia to industry. This paper proposes a novel deep convolutional neural network (CNN) for RUL prediction. Unlike health indicator-based methods which require the long-term tracking of sensor data from the initial stage, the proposed network aims to utilize data from consecutive time samples at any time interval for RUL prediction. Additionally, a new kernel module for prognostics is designed where the kernels are selected automatically, which can further enhance the feature extraction ability of the network. The effectiveness of the proposed network is validated using the C-MAPSS dataset for aircraft engines provided by NASA. Compared with the state-of-the-art results on the same dataset, the prediction results demonstrate the superiority of the proposed network.

The lithium-ion battery has become the primary energy source of many electronic devices. Accurately forecasting the remaining useful life (RUL) of a battery plays an essential role in ensuring reliable operatioin of an electronic system. This paper investigates the lithium-ion battery RUL prediction problem with capacity regeneration phenomena. We aim to reduce the accumulation of the prediction error by integrating different capacity degradation models and thereby improve the prediction accuracy of the long-term RUL. To describe the degradation process more accurately, we decoupled the degradation process into two types: capacity regeneration and normal degradation. Then, we modelled two kinds of degradation processes separately. In the prediction phase, we predicted the battery state of health (SOH) by using the relevance vector machine (RVM) and the gray model (GM) alternately, updated the training dataset according to the prediction results, and then updated the RVM and GM. The RVM and GM correct each other’s prediction results constantly, which reduces the cumulative error of prediction and improves the prediction accuracy of the battery SOH. Experimental results with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) battery dataset demonstrated that the proposed method can accurately establish the degradation model and achieve better performance for the RUL estimation as compared with the single RVM or GM methods.

System portfolio selection is a kind of tradeoff analysis and decision-making on multiple systems as a whole to fulfill the overall performance on the perspective of System of Systems (SoS). To avoid the subjectivity of traditional expert experience-dependent models, a model and data-driven approach is proposed to make an advance on the system portfolio selection. Two criteria of value and risk are used to indicate the quality of system portfolios. A capability gap model is employed to determine the value of system portfolios, with the weight information determined by correlation analysis. Then, the risk is represented by the remaining useful life (RUL), which is predicted by analyzing time series of system operational data. Next, based on the value and risk, an optimization model is proposed. Finally, a case with 100 candidate systems is studied under the scenario of anti-missile. By utilizing the Non-dominated Sorting Differential Evolution (NSDE) algorithm, a Pareto set with 200 individuals is obtained. Some characters of the Pareto set are analyzed by discussing the frequency of being selected and the association rules. Through the conclusion of the whole procedures, it can be proved that the proposed model and data-driven approach is feasible and effective for system portfolio selection.

Real-time prediction of remaining useful life (RUL) is one of the most essential works in prognostics and health management (PHM) of the micro-switches. In this paper, a linear degradation model based on an inverse Kalman filter to imitate the stochastic deterioration process is proposed. First, Bayesian posterior estimation and expectation maximization (EM) algorithm are used to estimate the stochastic parameters. Second, an inverse Kalman filter is delivered to solve the errors in the initial parameters. In order to improve the accuracy of estimating nonlinear data, the strong tracking filtering (STF) method is used on the basis of Bayesian updating Third, the effectiveness of the proposed approach is validated on an experimental data relating to micro-switches for the rail vehicle. Additionally, it proposes another two methods for comparison to illustrate the effectiveness of the method with an inverse Kalman filter in this paper. In conclusion, a linear degradation model based on an inverse Kalman filter shall deal with errors in RUL estimation of the micro-switches excellently.

Prognostics, such as remaining useful life (RUL) prediction, is a crucial task in condition-based maintenance. A major challenge in data-driven prognostics is the difficulty of obtaining a sufficient number of samples of failure progression. However, for traditional machine learning methods and deep neural networks, enough training data is a prerequisite to train good prediction models. In this work, we proposed a transfer learning algorithm based on Bi-directional Long Short-Term Memory (BLSTM) recurrent neural networks for RUL estimation, in which the models can be first trained on different but related datasets and then fine-tuned by the target dataset. Extensive experimental results show that transfer learning can in general improve the prediction models on the dataset with a small number of samples. There is one exception that when transferring from multi-type operating conditions to single operating conditions, transfer learning led to a worse result.

On-line remaining-useful-life (RUL) prognosis is still a problem for satellite Lithium-ion (Li-ion) batteries. Meanwhile, capacity, widely used as a health indicator of a battery (HI), is inconvenient or even impossible to measure. Aiming at practical and precise prediction of the RUL of satellite Li-ion batteries, a dynamic long short-term memory (DLSTM) neural-network-based indirect RUL prognosis is proposed in this paper. Firstly, an indirect HI based on the Spearman correlation analysis method is extracted from the battery discharge voltages, and the relationship between the indirect HI indices and battery capacity is established using a polynomial fitting method. Then, by integrating the Adam method, L2 regularization method, and incremental learning, a DLSTM method is proposed and applied for Li-ion battery RUL prognosis. Finally, verification of the results on NASA #5 battery data sets demonstrates that the proposed method has better dynamic performance and higher accuracy than the three other popular methods.