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Accurate and stable load forecasting has great significance to ensure the safe operation of distributed energy system. For the purpose of improving the accuracy and stability of distributed energy system load forecasting, a forecasting model in view of kernel principal component analysis (KPCA), kernel extreme learning machine (KELM) and fireworks algorithm (FWA) is proposed. First, KPCA modal is used to reduce the dimension of the feature, thus redundant input samples are merged. Next, FWA is employed to optimize the parameters C and σ of KELM. Lastly, the load forecasting modal of KPCA-FWA-KELM is established. The relevant data of a distributed energy system in Beijing, China, is selected for training test to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method. The results show that the new hybrid KPCA-FWA-KELM method has superior performance, robustness and versatility in load prediction of distributed energy systems.

The relay reliability has an impact on the reliability of the entire electric vehicle system. This paper contributes to propose the improving fireworks algorithm optimizing the grey neural network model to predict the relay lifetime. This paper shows how the mutation operation and mapping operation in the fireworks algorithm are used to improve the convergence ability and running speed, the convergence performance and running speed of improved fireworks algorithm are tested with standard test function and compared with fireworks algorithm, and the grey neural network model&ndash, improved fireworks algorithm is used to predict the relay life and compared with grey model, grey neural network, and grey neural network model&ndash, fireworks algorithm. The results show that the convergence accuracy of the improved fireworks algorithm is better than the fireworks algorithm. The running time of improved fireworks algorithm is the shortest, the improved fireworks algorithm&ndash, grey neural network model has the best prediction effect and the root mean square error value is 6.75% smaller than the fireworks algorithm&ndash, grey neural network model.

Icing on power transmission lines is a serious threat to the security and stability of the power grid, and it is necessary to establish a forecasting model to make accurate predictions of icing thickness. In order to improve the forecasting accuracy with regard to icing thickness, this paper proposes a combination model based on a wavelet support vector machine (w-SVM) and a quantum fireworks algorithm (QFA) for prediction. First, this paper uses the wavelet kernel function to replace the Gaussian wavelet kernel function and improve the nonlinear mapping ability of the SVM. Second, the regular fireworks algorithm is improved by combining it with a quantum optimization algorithm to strengthen optimization performance. Lastly, the parameters of w-SVM are optimized using the QFA model, and the QFA-w-SVM icing thickness forecasting model is established. Through verification using real-world examples, the results show that the proposed method has a higher forecasting accuracy and the model is effective and feasible.

Accurate forecasting of icing thickness has a great significance for ensuring the security and stability of power grid. In order to improve the forecasting accuracy, this paper proposes an icing forecasting system based on fireworks algorithm and weighted least square support vector machine (W-LSSVM). The method of fireworks algorithm is employed to select the proper input features with the purpose of eliminating the redundant influence. In addition, the aim of W-LSSVM model is to train and test the historical data-set with the selected features. The capability of this proposed icing forecasting model and framework is tested through the simulation experiments using real-world icing data from monitoring center of key laboratory of anti-ice disaster, Hunan, South China. The results show that the proposed W-LSSVM-FA method has a higher prediction accuracy and it may be a promising alternative for icing thickness forecasting.