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We introduce a bottom-up modeling framework that allows both the decentral and central planning of an integrated energy system with high shares of renewable generation. We take into account the distribution network structure as well as the changing local consumption due to high electrification rates of building heat supply and the transportation sector. This approach allows the analysis of pathways in between a cost-optimal system design and an equitable spatial distribution of renewable generation and battery storage capacities within the system. In addition, we investigate the optimal combination of short- and medium-term battery storage technologies, namely lithium-ion and redox flow batteries. Our results for the case of Baden-Wuerttemberg, a state in southern Germany, show that a central planning of renewable generation and storage capacity requirements results in lower levelized costs of electricity than a decentral design, as expected. However, pathways in between the two planning paradigms can lead to a more equitable inclusion of communities in the energy transition at reasonable cost increases, which might increase acceptance. The results of this study are of significance for policy-makers and local stakeholders, as they must address the conflicts that arise on a local level when expansion targets are planned centrally. • Framework for modeling local electricity consumption, considering structural changes • Optimal combination of short- and medium-term storage technologies (LiB and RFB) • Costs, storage and renewable capacity requirements for decentral vs. central planning [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Probabilistic simulation of security of electricity supply in central Europe. • Quasi-absolute levels of security of supply are unlikely to be maintained in future scenarios. • Sensitivity of security of supply towards meteorological influences is increasing. • Dependency on contributions from neighboring countries is growing. • Relevance to coordinate capacity planning on an international level is demonstrated. Against the backdrop of expansions of intermittent renewable energy capacity, planned nuclear phase-outs, and current debates on the additional mothballing of coal-fired power plants in central Europe, there is a substantial increase in uncertainty regarding security of electricity supply. In this context, we present a probabilistic and scenario-based analysis of impacts on security of supply for Germany as a case-study in the medium-term perspective (years 2020, 2022, and 2023). For our analysis, we introduce the energy security assessment module of the JERICHO energy system model from RWTH Aachen University. Our model allows for an hourly probabilistic simulation of security of supply and accounts for stochastic characteristics of (non-)availability of conventional generators, renewable feed-in, electricity demand, and import potentials from central-European countries. To increase the robustness of results, we use a comprehensive dataset of temperature, wind speeds, solar radiation and water levels from weather years 1986 to 2015 as input for our simulations. Our results indicate that Germany is unlikely to maintain its quasi-absolute levels of security of supply in the near future with a mean Loss of Load Expectation (LoLE) of up to 2.6 h in scenario year 2023. However, this does not necessarily imply that future levels of security of supply are insufficient. There is need for further assessments on identifying threshold levels for security of supply, which are economically efficient and acceptable for society. Our results also indicate that the sensitivity of security of supply for meteorological changes increases with reductions of conventional power plants. Finally, we demonstrate that the dependency of security of supply on imports from neighboring countries increases substantially calling for increased international coordination of national energy policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]