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Abstract: Publishing papers in the area of forecasting natural gas consumption has begun in the middle of last century and led to a tremendous surge in research activities in the past decade. This paper presents a state-of-the-art survey of forecasting natural gas consumption. Purpose of this paper is to provide analysis and synthesis of published research in this area from beginning to the end of 2010, insights on applied area, used data, models and tools to achieve usable results, in order to be helpful base for future researchers. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Highlights • Spatial and temporal correlation of wind power and uncertainty considered. • Sparse correlation matrix efficiently models the spatial-temporal correlation. • Distributionally robust chance constrained OPF model considers economics and security. • Considering spatial-temporal correlation leads to lower system operating cost. • Comparison with scenario-based stochastic model shows efficiency of proposed model. Abstract The significantly increasing deployment of wind power necessitates that system operation considers the spatial-temporal correlation of power forecast from different wind power plants. How to model this spatial-temporal correlation in the actual system dispatch is challenging. In this paper, a sparse correlation matrix is utilized to efficiently model the spatial-temporal correlation of wind power forecast in the generation dispatch model. A novel, adjustable, and distributionally-robust chance-constrained multi-interval optimal power flow (ADRCC-MIOPF) model is proposed to obtain reliable economic dispatch (ED) solutions. The spatial-temporal correlation of wind power plants power forecasts is represented by the sparse correlation covariance matrix obtained from historical, time series wind power forecast error data. The chance constraints in the ADRCC-MIOPF model are transformed into a set of second-order-cone (SOC) constraints in which an adjustable coefficient in the chance constraints controls the robustness of the ADRCC-MIOPF model to the wind power forecast errors distribution. Case studies performed on the PJM 5-bus system and IEEE 118-bus system verify the proposed method to improve the system security and reduce the cost especially under the high wind penetration levels. All the cases can be solved within several minutes for both the small and large cases which validates the efficiency of the proposed sparse matrix model. In addition, considering the spatial-temporal correlation of wind power forecast and the distributional robustness of wind power forecast error leads to a more reliable economic dispatch with lower system violations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: In the present work different energy reduction schemes (ERSs), used to reduce the consumption of steam for a multiple effect evaporator (MEE) system, are developed. These ERSs are condensate-, feed- and product-flashing and vapor bleeding. Further, a new scheme is proposed where condensate of vapor chest of an effect is used to preheat the liquor, which is entering into that effect using a counter current heat exchanger. This work also presents a comparative study between existing ERSs and selects the best ERS amongst these based on steam consumption as well as number of units involved. Further, in the present paper a simple graphical approach named “modified temperature path (MTP)” is developed for the analysis of different feed flow sequences of a MEE system to screen best possible feed flow sequence. To study the effect of different ERSs on steam consumption and MTP analysis an example of septuple effect flat falling film evaporator (SEFFFE) system, employed for concentrating weak black liquor in an Indian Kraft Paper Mill, is considered. The results show that ERSs reduce the steam consumption up to 24.6%. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Effective monitoring and numerical simulations are essential to understanding the implications of long-term geological carbon storage; in particular, the predictions of CO2 plume flow under storage conditions, storage integrity of sites, and the design and operational aspects of the CO2 storage projects could be significantly supplemented. Site monitoring data can assure reliability and accuracy of the numerical simulation while numerical prediction results will provide more detailed information on the storage process. The cross-validation between numerical modelling results and monitoring data can play a major role in the development of carbon capture and storage technology. This paper briefly reviews the monitoring and modelling technologies associated with geological carbon storage. In addition, the spatial and temporal resolutions of the numerical simulations are highlighted, while estimations on the resolutions of some commonly used monitoring technologies are also presented. It is revealed that there are gaps in the correlations and cross-validation between the two technologies, where a possible option to reduce the gaps is to enforce more research efforts on multi-scale modelling and appropriate variable correlations. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: In this paper it is presented a mathematical analysis of the energy efficiency for the Multiport Power Converter (MPC) used in series and parallel Hybrid Power Source (HPS) architectures type on the plug-in Fuel Cell Vehicles (PFCVs). The aim of the analysis is to provide general conclusions for a wide range of PFCV operating regimes that are chosen for efficient use of the MPC architecture on each particular drive cycle. In relation with FC system of PFCV, the Energy Storage System (ESS) can operate in following regimes: (1) Charge-Sustaining (CS), (2) Charge-Depleting (CD), and (3) Charge-Increasing (CI). Considering the imposed window for the ESS State-Of-Charge (SOC), the MPC can be connected to renewable plug-in Charging Stations (PCSs) to exchange power with Electric Power (EP) system, when it is necessary for both. The Energy Management Unit (EMU) that communicates with the EP system will establish the moments to match the PFCV power demand with supply availability of the EP grid, stabilizing it. The MPC energy efficiency of the PFCVs is studied when the ESS is charged (discharged) from (to) the home/PCS/EP system. The comparative results were shown for both PFCV architectures through the analytical calculation performed and the appropriate Matlab/Simulink® simulations presented. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The design and operation of combined cooling, heating and power (CCHP) systems are greatly dependent upon the seasonal atmospheric conditions, which determine thermal and power demands of buildings. This paper presents a mathematical analysis of CCHP system in comparison to separate system. The corresponding primary energy consumption in thermal demand management (TDM) and electrical demand management (EDM) operation modes are deduced. Three relative criteria, primary energy saving (PES), CO2 emission reduction (CO2ER), and annual total cost saving (ATCS) are employed to evaluate the respective performances of CCHP systems for a hypothetical building in five different climate zones from the technical, environmental and economic aspects. The results indicate that CCHP system in TDM mode in the cold area, where the building requires more heating during the year, achieves more benefit over separate system while CCHP system in EDM mode suits the building having stable thermal demand in mild climate zone. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: In this paper, energy metrics (energy pay back time, electricity production factor and life cycle conversion efficiency) of hybrid photovoltaic (PV) modules have been analyzed and presented for the composite climate of New Delhi, India. For this purpose, it is necessary to calculate (1) the energy consumption in making different components of the PV modules and (2) the annual energy (electrical and thermal) available from the hybrid-PV modules. A set of mathematical relations have been reformulated for computation of the energy metrics. The manufacturing energy, material production energy, energy use and distribution energy of the system have been taken into account, to determine the embodied energy for the hybrid-PV modules. The embodied energy and annual energy outputs have been used for evaluation of the energy metrics. For hybrid PV module, it has been observed that the EPBT gets significantly reduced by taking into account the increase in annual energy availability of the thermal energy in addition to the electrical energy. The values of EPF and LCCE of hybrid PV module become higher as expected. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This paper presents a comprehensive exergy analysis of three circuits and whole system of a ground-source heat pump (GSHP) for both building heating and cooling modes. The purpose is to search out the key potential energy saving components. The analytical formulae of exergy loss, exergy efficiency, exergy loss ratio, exergy loss coefficient and thermodynamic perfect degree are derived, respectively. The results show that these exergy indexes should be used integratively, and in the whole system the location of maximum exergy loss ratio is the compressor, while the location of minimum exergy efficiency and thermodynamic perfect degree is the ground heat exchanger, so that the compressor and the ground heat exchanger should be primarily improved. The results also indicate that the exergy loss of a GSHP system for building heating mode is bigger than that of cooling mode, and the exergy efficiency of a whole GSHP system is obviously lower than those of its components for both building heating and cooling modes. Therefore, a comprehensive exergy analysis of a GSHP should be paid more attention to. The results may provide guidelines for the design and optimization of GSHP systems. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: In this work the thermoeconomic features of two different combined cycles using air “open loop” and steam “closed loop” cooled gas turbines are presented and compared in depth. In order to properly estimate both thermodynamic and thermoeconomic performance of the different combined cycles an analytical model of the blade cooling system has been developed in details and outlined in the paper. Internal Thermoeconomic functional analysis is not performed here, as only economic results are shown and discussed. The blade cooling detailed model, originally developed by TPG researchers, has been integrated into the web based modular code WTEMP, already validated for GT based cycles, developed in the last ten years by TPG. It is shown that the closed loop blade cooling configuration has the greatest potential in terms of thermodynamic efficiency and economic competitivity in the mid-term. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This paper aims to show the use of the response surface methodology (RSM) in size optimization of an autonomous PV/wind integrated hybrid energy system with battery storage. RSM is a collection of statistical and mathematical methods which relies on optimization of response surface with design parameters. In this study, the response surface, output performance measure, is the hybrid system cost, and the design parameters are the PV size, wind turbine rotor swept area and the battery capacity. The case study is realized in ARENA 10.0, a commercial simulation software, for satisfaction of electricity consumption of the global system for mobile communications (GSM) base station at Izmir Institute of Technology Campus Area, Urla, Turkey. As a result, the optimum PV area, wind turbine rotor swept area, and battery capacity are obtained to be 3.95m2, 29.4m2, 31.92kWh, respectively. These results led to $37,033.9 hybrid energy system cost, including auxiliary energy cost. The optimum result obtained by RSM is confirmed using loss of load probability (LLP) and autonomy analysis. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]