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The district heating system (DHS) is one of the essential carriers for coordinating renewable energy with fossil energy and achieving flexible energy consumption. Considering the uncertainty of both the renewable energy units' power and the consumers' aggregate loads impact the transport process of the DHS, the thermal characteristics of the DHS transportation and the node temperature response under the source-load uncertainty need to be quantified and analyzed. This paper proposed a method to calculate the nodes' temperature dynamic response of the DHS under multiple source-load uncertainty scenarios. The prediction and combination methods of supply and demand probability intervals of source and load nodes under varying credibility levels were investigated. Additionally, the effects of source-load uncertainty boundary conditions on the DHS transport process were analyzed. The temperature response of the nodes was calculated based on the established dynamic DHS model under multiple source-load uncertainty scenarios. A DHS in Beijing was selected for case validation and analysis, and it has 90 nodes and 109 pipes. The simulation results showed that the relative average error of node flow rate in the dynamic DHS model was 3.02%, and the average difference in node temperature was 1 °C. The probability distribution semi-analytical method and the Bayesian credible interval calculation method can accurately describe the uncertainty on both source and load sides. The models and algorithms proposed in this paper could effectively quantify the nodes' dynamic temperature response under the source-load uncertainty. • Proposed uncertainty quantification models for the source and load nodes of DHS. • Developed a novel credible interval calculation method for nodes' thermal power. • Quantified nodes' temperature dynamic response considering source-load uncertainty. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Integrated energy system (IES) is characterized by high self-consumption ratio of on-site generated renewable energy, high efficiency of conventional energy utilization and possesses a significant flexibility in its operation. This overall, constitute to the foundation of low-carbon communities. Considering economic and environmental benefits, this paper proposes a two-layer co-optimization model with the upper layer optimizing the IES configuration and the lower layer optimizing IES operation. A community in Beijing is introduced as a case study to analyze the benefits of IES and compared with the conventional energy system. Multiple scenarios are researched, including (a) IES for low-carbon communities with PV roof area limitation, (b) IES for each of the four building types with PV roof area limitation, (c) IES for low-carbon communities without PV roof area limitation. The results indicate that the optimized IES for community can reduce the cost by 25% and CO 2 emissions by 32% per year by considering the limitation of roof area for the PV system. Without this constraint, the costs and emissions could be reduced by 20% and 62%, respectively. In addition, IES is more appropriate for office and commercial buildings since their load characteristics allow for load shifting and community-level IES costs and emissions are 8% and 10% lower than building-level due to the complementary of community load. This study provides suggestions for the IES planning and application in low-carbon community. [Display omitted] • An IES with multiple renewable energy and energy storage subsystems is proposed. • A two-layer co-optimization model of IES design and operation is developed. • IES optimization results for building-level and community-level are compared. • Impact of roof area limitation for PV on IES optimization results is investigated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• The reliability and economy of UMES integrated with PTH are assessed. • Modeling of PTH flexibility considering both energy- and service-related constraints. • A system operation model combining energy management, vehicle dispatch and V2G is proposed. • A holistic evaluation framework embedded with multi-modal operation simulation is developed. • Influential factors for the contribution of PTH flexibility are analyzed. Growing penetration of renewable energy sources (RES) and emerging electrified loads (EEL) are bringing about increased difficulties for the power balancing and efficient operation of energy system, due to the impact of remarkable volatilities introduced. Public transport hub (PTH), as a new-style infrastructure of traffic service carriers, is regarded to offer a cogent solution to this problem, in terms of their potential operational flexibilities permitted by energy regulation, vehicular dispatch, and vehicle-to-grid (V2G) programs. As such, this paper carries out a comprehensive study to investigate the implication of harnessing PTH-enabled flexibility in a context of urban multi-energy system (UMES). The proposed methodology is established on a holistic reliability/economic analysis framework which is designed to indicate how UMES's performances would vary with different utilization of PTH resources. In order to portray the real-time controllability of PTH during operation, a PTH model that takes into account the impacts of both energy- and service-related aspects has been developed, with particular focus on the interdependencies between the energy and transportation sector. The operational simulation of UMES in presence of PTHs is implemented by using a multi-modal-based optimization model, which captures the effects of PTH flexibility under both normal and contingency scenarios integratedly. By embedding the above formulation into a sequential Monte Carlo simulation-based assessment framework, the contribution of PTH to the reliability and economy of UMES can be determined. Numerical studies are conducted based on an illustrative electricity-gas-heat test case and the real PTH datasets in Beijing. The simulation results confirm the significance of PTH-enabled flexibility in improving the performances of UMES. Also, it is demonstrated that the reserving strategy adopted, the composition of vehicle model, and the travel demand profile of passengers are the noteworthy factors that influence the profitability of PTH exploitation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]