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As power systems around the world are rapidly evolving to achieve decarbonization objectives, it is crucial that power system planners and operators use appropriate models and tools to analyze and address the associated challenges. This paper provides a detailed overview of the properties of power market models in the context of the clean energy transition. We review common power market model methodologies, their readiness for low- and zero‑carbon grids, and new power market trends. Based on the review, we suggest model improvements and new designs to increase modeling capabilities for future grids. The paper highlights key modeling concepts related to power system flexibility, with a particular focus on hydropower and energy storage, as well as the representation of grid services, price formation, temporal structure, and the importance of uncertainty. We find that a changing resource mix, market restructuring, and growing price uncertainty require more precise modeling techniques to adequately capture the new technology constraints and the dynamics of future power markets. In particular, models must adequately represent resource opportunity costs, multi-horizon flexibility, and energy storage capabilities across the full range of grid services. Moreover, at the system level, it is increasingly important to consider sub-hourly time resolution, enhanced uncertainty representation, and introduce co-optimization for dual market clearing of energy and grid services. Likewise, models should capture interdependencies between multiple energy carriers and demand sectors. • Review methodologies and assumptions commonly used in power market models. • Identify model design features critical to analyzing the clean energy transition. • Survey current state-of-the-art in modeling low-carbon power markets. • Identify key model improvements needed for future deep decarbonization scenarios. • Highlight importance of tailoring tools for specific power market applications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Transitioning electricity generation sectors to renewable energy is a necessary element of climate change mitigation but a challenging one with years of technical and social lock-in creating considerable inertia and a pace of change insufficient to meet the task. Transition management has emerged as a promising approach to proactively manage and accelerate transitions in sectors like energy and water and has the potential to do so in manner that would help secure energy justice. However, the approach has been criticised for ignoring the political dynamics of transitions, risking procedural and recognition injustice for traditional energy production regions while increasing opposition to a transition. This paper uses a qualitative case study approach to understand how a transition to renewable energy generation could be achieved in a way that secures energy justice for traditional energy production regions like those of Gladstone in the Australian state of Queensland. The paper augments the transition management approach with the “just transitions” concept, which has emerged from labour movements as a means to mitigate negative impacts on workers and communities in traditional energy production regions, to create a “Just Transition Management” framework that is applied as a diagnostic tool to the case study. While results suggest a transition is imminent within Queensland, a lack of: consistent, supportive federal policy; long-term visions, and a clear process leaves it at risk of being captured by the powerful incumbent resources sector utilising an “environment vs. jobs” narrative. Yet, the results also suggest that adopting a just transition management approach has the potential to successfully resist the influence of the resources sector, by providing cheap, secure renewable energy and supporting affected workers into roles in the renewable energy sector using a reflexive, representative network governance approach. Data analysis reveals how the application of just transition principles has already engaged communities and unions that were previously sceptical of renewable energy. Overall, this study suggests that the just transition management framework assists in identifying the political barriers to transitions and energy justice more broadly, while also providing a management approach which creates powerful niche actor-networks to counter the narratives and influence of the incumbent resource sector. Thus it could support successful transitions that achieve the distributional, recognition and procedural justice needed for energy justice globally. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper proposes an approach to analyze the economic feasibility of offshore wind energy under influences of government financial subsidies, dynamic weather conditions (including typhoon), taxation, expectation of investor, optimal maintenance schedule, generated electricity under real weather conditions, and benefits from reduction of CO 2 emission. Economic criteria are calculated and used to assess efficiency of the government financial subsidies. This paper further proposes more appropriate subsidies for the government in term of satisfying both of investor’s expectation and the government’s target. In the case of Taiwan, government has been currently adopting Feed-in-tariff (FIT) subsidy and offering subsidy on capital cost to promote the development of offshore wind system. However, the currently applied subsidy on capital cost is not attractive enough for the investors and the current FIT subsidy is applied equally for all regions of Taiwan regardless the distinct conditions of each region. This paper proposes a more appropriate subsidy for capital cost, and suggests establishing regional FIT subsidy to subsidize differently for different regions. The results indicate that the proposed subsidy for capital cost and the proposed regional FIT subsidy are more appropriate to promote the expansion of offshore wind system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents an analysis of existing financial incentive policies in the U.S. for integrated photovoltaic and battery energy storage (PV-BES) systems. A mathematical model of PV-BES system to evaluate annual energy performance is developed in this paper. Four types of buildings (i.e., hospital, large office, large hotel, and secondary school) located in four different states, which each has their own PV and/or BES incentives, are selected and analyzed. Based on the energy performance data for each building type, the simply payback period (PBP) for the PV-BES system in different locations is calculated according to the local incentive policies. The PBP is chosen as an indicator to evaluate the effectiveness of incentive policies for different locations and building types by comparing it to the PBP for the same PV-BES systems without incentive policies. The reduction of carbon dioxide emission (CDE) due to the PV generation is also investigated since it indicates the potential to reduce the PBP for a further step when a high carbon credit is available. Furthermore, a parametric analysis is conducted to determine the sensitivity and contribution of parameters such as the capacity of the PV-BES system, the capital cost of PV module and the battery storage on the performance of the PV-BES system. Results show that for all the evaluated buildings in California and Hawaii, the existing incentive policy could reduce the PBP effectively below 10 years. However, the PBP for most of the evaluated buildings in New Jersey and New York were high even when both the PV and BES incentive policies were taken into account (approximately from 11 to 29 years). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the rapidly growing interest in bifacial photovoltaics (PV), a worldwide map of their potential performance can help assess and accelerate the global deployment of this emerging technology. However, the existing literature only highlights optimized bifacial PV for a few geographic locations or develops worldwide performance maps for very specific configurations, such as the vertical installation. It is still difficult to translate these location- and configuration-specific conclusions to a general optimized performance of this technology. In this paper, we present a global study and optimization of bifacial solar modules using a rigorous and comprehensive modeling framework. Our results demonstrate that with a low albedo of 0.25, the bifacial gain of ground-mounted bifacial modules is less than 10% worldwide. However, increasing the albedo to 0.5 and elevating modules 1 m above the ground can boost the bifacial gain to 30%. Moreover, we derive a set of empirical design rules, which optimize bifacial solar modules across the world and provide the groundwork for rapid assessment of the location-specific performance. We find that ground-mounted, vertical, east-west-facing bifacial modules will outperform their south-north-facing, optimally tilted counterparts by up to 15% below the latitude of 30°, for an albedo of 0.5. The relative energy output is reversed in latitudes above 30°. A detailed and systematic comparison with data from Asia, Africa, Europe, and North America validates the model presented in this paper. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Distributed energy system (DES) has successfully aroused increasing interests among energy policy makers and system designers, as its potential of replacing conventional energy system. The optimal modeling of district load forecasting is essential to guarantee the best design and operation of DES. This paper presents a comprehensive review of district load forecasting (DLF) models to support the application of DES. The main factors affecting district load are discussed from inside to outside, including building indoor condition, building design characteristics, district layout, local microclimate, and social & economic factors. Through classifying and comparing top-down and bottom-up methods in terms of their key features and applications, it is found that the existing methods are either lack of forecasting accuracy or burdened with forecasting workload. Previous literatures reviewed in this paper show that the hybrid forecasting models including scenario analysis, physical-statistical numerical simulation and least square support vector machine based intelligent approaches have a superior ability to balance these two contradictions under different conditions. Based on the comparison results and current trend, a framework of district load forecasting, as well as corresponding future research work, is proposed for DES planning, design and service. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Existing energy policies' impacts on long-term CO2 mitigation is limited. • Delayed NDC enhancement might result in significant reduction on energy service. • Early enhancement with carbon trading could effectively reduce the system cost. • Cost-optimal enhancing plan requires huge investment in developing regions. CO2 mitigation in the global energy system is critical in tackling climate change, each region should design its long-term strategies and implement policies accordingly to promote the energy transformation. To evaluate the impacts of existing energy policies and propose possible enhanced NDCs (Nationally Determined Contributions), this paper applied a 14-region global model to explore the transitions of the global and regional energy system. With the modelling of early and late NDCs enhancing plan for 2-degree target, the required energy transition of each plan was analyzed, together with the vital challenges and potential economic impacts. Model results show: 1. Existing energy policies can reduce the annual emission growth rate to 0.6% for 2015 – 2020, while their influence on long-term mitigation is limited; 2. If enhanced NDCs begin from 2030 onwards after realizing current goals, 2-degree target would become quite challenging in later period, some regions will have to cut the energy service drastically; 3. With the assumption of early enhancement and free carbon trading in the cost-optimal enhancing plan, the total cost of global energy system could be reduced by 10% in 2050, compared with the former plan; 4. Under this cost-optimal enhancing plan, developing regions may face great challenges in short to medium term, 122% of additional investment should be put in power sector in 2030, international support on both technology and finance would be essential. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Agent-Based Model to emulate real-world performance of microgrid with P2P trading. • Holistic simulation of economic, technical, and ecological metrics. • Validation of Model with urban area of medium-sized German city. • Comparison of microgrid metrics before and during the European energy crisis. • Conclusions for research, practice, and energy policy. The shift towards renewable energy sources (RES) in energy systems is becoming increasingly important. Residential energy generation and storage assets, smart home energy management systems, and peer-to-peer (P2P) electricity trading in microgrids can help integrate and balance decentralized renewable electricity supply with an increasingly electrified power, heat, and transport demand, reducing costs and CO 2 emissions. However, these microgrids are difficult to model because they consist of autonomous and interacting entities, leading to emergent phenomena and a high degree of complexity. Agent-based modeling is an established technique to simulate the complexity of microgrids. However, the existing literature still lacks real-world implementation studies and, as a first step, models capable of validating the existing results with real-world data. To this end, we present an agent-based model and analyze the corresponding microgrid performance with real-world data. The model quantifies economic, technical, and environmental metrics to simulate microgrid performance holistically and, in line with state-of-the-art research, consists of self-interested, autonomous agents with specific load profiles, RES generation, and demand-response potential. The model can simulate a P2P marketplace where electricity is traded between agents. In the second part of the paper, we validate the model with data from a medium-sized German city. In this case study, we also compare microgrid performance in 2022, during the energy market crisis in Europe, with historical data from 2019 to assess the effects of energy market shocks. Our results show how microgrids with P2P trading can reduce electricity costs and CO 2 emissions. However, our trading mechanism illustrates that the benefits of energy-community trading are almost exclusively shared among prosumers, highlighting the need to consider distributional issues when implementing P2P trading. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Energy storage is extensively recognized as a significant potential resource for balancing generation and load in future power systems. Although small residential and commercial consumers of electrical energy can now purchase energy storage systems, many factors, such as cost, policy and control efficiency, limit the spread of distributed energy storage (DES). This paper proposes a new type of DES—cloud energy storage (CES)—that is capable of providing energy storage services at a substantially lower cost. This grid-based storage service enables ubiquitous and on-demand access to a shared pool of grid-scale energy storage resources. It provides users the ability to store and withdraw electrical energy to and from centralized batteries. This paper describes the concept of CES and the control and communication technologies that are required for its implementation and its operating mechanism, as well as its business model. Simulation results that are based on actual power system operating data demonstrate the feasibility and economic benefit of CES. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Energy efficiency policies play a key role in the transformation to a ‘green energy economy’. In this paper, we take stock of the impacts of the existing energy efficiency policy instruments in Germany and review the energy, environmental and socioeconomic impacts of the country’s latest energy efficiency and climate strategies for the year 2020. We find evidence supporting the findings of other studies that enhanced green energy policies will trigger tangible economic benefits in terms of GDP growth and new jobs even in the short term. Whereas policy makers have already acknowledged and implemented this conclusion in the case of renewable energies, our paper shows that striving for more ambitious energy efficiency policies represents a similar win–win strategy, which should be exploited to a much larger extent. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With important implications for global climate change mitigation, the development of a cap-and-trade emission trading scheme (ETS) in China is embedded in distinctive political, economic, and institutional contexts and has been attracting increasing attention in recent years. To offer a clear perspective on current research progress, this paper systematically reviews the recent literature on China’s ETS from three main aspects: mechanism design, policy and regional linkages, as well as impact assessment. The current research consensuses are summarized based upon detailed literature analyses and commentaries, and together with observations of international experience and China’s actual condition, the paper provides policy proposals for the development of China’s national ETS during 2016–2020. Finally, several important controversies in the current literature are discussed with regard to the practical demands of China’s ETS development. Five pressing topics that need to be further studied in the coming years are highlighted, including cap setting, allowance allocation among sectors and enterprises, carbon pricing, policy package and unified carbon market construction, as well as ex-ante and ex-post impact assessments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Highlights • The application of big data to energy economy modelling is a critical research gap. • Big data has the potential to reduce multiple blind spots in energy economy models. • Bottom-up hybrid models are a logical starting point for big data integration. • Moving from data scarcity to data abundance could completely transform the field. • We explore the research possibilities for revolutionising the state-of-the-art. Abstract Energy economy models are central to decision making on energy and climate issues in the 21st century, such as informing the design of deep decarbonisation strategies under the Paris Agreement. Designing policies that are aimed at achieving such radical transitions in the energy system will require ever more in-depth modelling of end-use demand, efficiency and fuel switching, as well as an increasing need for regional, sectoral, and agent disaggregation to capture technological, jurisdictional and policy detail. Building and using these models entails complex trade-offs between the level of detail, the size of the system boundary, and the available computing resources. The availability of data to characterise key energy system sectors and interactions is also a key driver of model structure and parameterisation, and there are many blind spots and design compromises that are caused by data scarcity. We may soon, however, live in a world of data abundance , potentially enabling previously impossible levels of resolution and coverage in energy economy models. But while big data concepts and platforms have already begun to be used in a number of selected energy research applications, their potential to improve or even completely revolutionise energy economy modelling has been almost completely overlooked in the existing literature. In this paper, we explore the challenges and possibilities of this emerging frontier. We identify critical gaps and opportunities for the field, as well as developing foundational concepts for guiding the future application of big data to energy economy modelling, with reference to the existing literature on decision making under uncertainty, scenario analysis and the philosophy of science. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Highlights • Capacity expansion planning model for the integration of CSP-TES. • Evaluation of the systemic economic and operational benefits provided by CSP-TES. • Analysis of multiple technology and policy scenarios for the Chilean power system. • Study of complementarities between CSP-TES and other technologies. • Investigation on the role of CSP-TES as a flexibility provider to the system. Abstract This paper presents a study about the impacts of the integration of concentrated solar power (CSP) with thermal energy storage (TES) in electric power systems. The main tool for this study is a comprehensive long-term power system capacity expansion planning model that integrates a specific module to represent the operation of CSP-TES power plants. The model determines the optimal investments on generation and transmission assets over a twenty-year planning horizon, ranging from 2018 until 2037, and employs projections for the various parameters involved (e.g. load growth, capital costs for the different generation technologies, fuels costs). One of the main features of the model is its ability to capture the hourly operational dynamics of the system through the consideration of multiple representative days for each of its investment periods. This feature allows a better understanding of the role of CSP-TES as a significant provider of flexibility to support a high penetration of variable renewable energy sources, as compared with traditional planning models based on load blocks. The model is applied to a case study for the Chilean electricity system. In order to study the impacts of CSP-TES, various scenarios of future capital costs and carbon tax levels are defined and analyzed for two market dominant CSP-TES technologies. The results show that for low CSP-TES capital costs, or high carbon taxes, the integration of CSP-TES in the system is significant towards year 2037, potentially reaching about one third of the total dispatched energy in the Chilean electric power system, yielding important operational, economic, and environmental benefits. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Highlights • Create city-specific energy performance grading model using city disclosure data. • Method to grade buildings that is interpretable, reproducible, scalable, and robust. • Develop a clustering algorithm to grade buildings on performance. • Validated approach demonstrates significant improvements over current methods. Abstract As the effects of anthropogenic climate change become more pronounced, local and federal governments are turning towards more aggressive policies to reduce energy use in existing buildings, a major global contributor of carbon emissions. Recently, several cities have enacted laws mandating owners of large buildings to publicly display an energy efficiency rating for their properties. While such transparency is necessary for market-driven energy reduction policies, the reliance on public-facing energy efficiency grades raises non-trivial questions about the robustness and reliability of methods used to measure and benchmark the energy performance of existing buildings. In this paper, we develop a building energy performance grading methodology using machine learning and city-specific energy use and building data. Leveraging the growing availability of data from city energy disclosure ordinances, we develop the GREEN grading system: a framework to facilitate more accurate, fair, and contextualized building energy benchmarks that account for variations in the expected and actual performance of individual buildings. When applied to approximately 7500 residential properties in New York City, our approach accounts for the differential impact of design, occupancy, use, and systems on energy performance, out-performing existing state-of-the-art methods. Our model and findings reinforce the need for more robust, localized approaches to building energy performance grading that can serve as the basis for data-driven urban energy efficiency and carbon reeduction policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Highlights • Overview of US Federal Energy Management (FEMP) lighting efficiency program. • Estimated total benefits of the 2017 lighting update from $33 to 217 million USD. • Estimated energy savings 0.33–4.76 TWh for this update. • Total benefits methodology with monetized full fuel cycle greenhouse gas emissions. • Presents the FEMP lighting categorization structure. Abstract Lighting consumes a great deal of electrical energy in buildings, and the U.S. federal government is the largest single energy consumer in the United States. Therefore, the way that the U.S. federal government manages its lighting energy use is of great importance. One important way that energy use is managed is through Federal Energy Management Program (FEMP) energy efficiency requirements. However, there is not much literature on how these requirements are set and how to value the resulting savings. This paper documents the methodology used to develop these for the 2017 FEMP lighting update. A methodology for calculating the total benefits is presented that goes beyond site energy saved, and includes full fuel cycle energy savings, energy cost savings, emissions offset and monetized emissions costs. The results show total benefits of $33 million USD including 475 kilotons of carbon dioxide (CO 2) offset under the low compliance scenario, $104 million USD including 1494 kilotons of CO 2 offset under the medium compliance scenario, and $217 million USD including 3124 kilotons of CO 2 offset under the high compliance scenario. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Highlights • We addressed a novel energy-efficiency program for the home appliances and energy. • We discussed appropriate energy policies for the government decision-making. • Energy rebound, consumer behavior, and innovation are assumed in the problem. • First scenario has the most advantages and least disadvantages than the others. • The manufacturer subsidy has the most performance between the discussed policies. Abstract In recent years, due to the sustainability concerns, energy-efficiency programs that address eco-friendly issues such as energy efficiency and clean production have increased in the world. Furthermore, eco-efficient appliances, as the direct result of research and development (R&D) activities have become a popular topic in the sustainability programs of the most developed countries due to their high-tech features. In this paper, we discuss a residential energy-efficiency program for the new energy-efficient appliances and related energy consumption, simultaneously, in a sustainable supply chain consists of the energy supplier, manufacturer, and the government. Also, we consider the technological rebound effect of the efficiency improvement, consumer behavior, and ability to innovate of the manufacturer in the problem, as the novel assumptions. To solve the problem, we propose a multi-stage game model using the Bertrand model. Also, we investigate three structures, based on the Nash and leader-follower games as the scenarios. The findings reveal the equilibrium pricing decisions for the supply-chain players to maximize their profits, besides the best energy policy and supply-chain structure for the efficient management of household energy consumption. More precisely, the first scenario with the Nash structure between the manufacturer and energy supplier has the most advantages and the least disadvantages than the other scenarios. Also, the manufacturer subsidy has the most performance in the discussed energy-efficiency program. Finally, the present study shows the significant effects of considering the energy rebound, innovation abilities of the manufacturer, and consumer behavior assumptions in the household energy problems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Highlights • Renewable quotas incorporating equity and duty are allocated at regional level. • The entropy method coupled with Management by Objectives principles is adopted. • Quotas scheme is dominated by differences in resource endowment and infrastructure. • Nexus for renewable-rich and developed areas is vital to fulfill renewable quotas. • Renewable revolution needs a twin-track process of nearby and external consumption. Abstract Feed-in tariff and renewable portfolio standards are two major policies for renewable power generation and China is the first country to adopt both policies at the national level. The black box for regional allocation of renewable portfolio standards, however, may lead to the instability and inefficiency of this policy. This paper introduces the principles of Management by Objective to build a clear policy framework for renewable portfolio standards in China and employs the entropy method to equally and reasonably assign regional responsibility for renewable energy development. A comparison is made between our allocation and the goal-directed policy to determine whether historical responsibility and infrastructure construction should be further considered in crafting renewable portfolio standards. The trends for regional renewable quotas are influenced by the twin-track approach of nearby utilization and external transmission. Finally, based on our analysis, the policy implications behind the new incentive are presented to urge the establishments of supporting facilities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Highlights • Historical institutionalism is applied to energy justice for the first time. • Critical junctures provide opportunity windows for policy actors to influence change. • Chernobyl is identified as a critical juncture in German nuclear policy. • Small businesses are a key driver of energy policy change. Abstract The German government presented the decision to phase out nuclear energy as a nationally accepted rebalancing of inequality in the energy sector. We expose how this radical change was delivered through a myriad of change agents, most notably through the rise of small energy companies. Critical junctures, in this case the Chernobyl disaster rather than Fukushima, offer moments in time when national policy systems are destabilized. They provide opportunities for changing policy in a perceived pro-energy justice direction if a new consensus can be forged. The paper concludes with a discussion on how energy scholars must engage more with policy analysis frameworks if long-term effective solutions are to be found to persistent energy inequalities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper explores the energy justice nexus, drawing on Sen and Nussbaum’s concept of capabilities. Our contribution operationalises most of the ten capabilities defined by Nussbaum, and examines them for all households of a single country (Belgium) in relation to household access to energy and especially to affordable warmth. We argue that the three dimensions highlighted by environmental-justice theories – income distribution, procedures producing unequal distributional outcomes, and cultural and political recognition of vulnerable and marginalised social groups – are more evident when posed contra the range of differences between energy-poor households and other types of households of a country. Thus, we propose a five-group typology of households that also takes into account the social aid granted in the country. Using Belgium as an example, this typology is used to compare across these five groups with respect to the extent to which energy poverty is associated with other difficulties of daily life beyond just housing and health. A new simple statistical index is developed to summarise these comparisons. The approach of the energy justice nexus is thus systemic rather than causal between access to energy and potential capabilities’ deprivation. The data used is a large-scale quantitative survey that is part of the Generation and Gender Programme (GGP), and it enables to proxy most of Nussbaum’s capabilities with several questions asked in this GGP survey. As these GGP surveys are standardised and realised in 16 countries, our approach is transferable to other nations/regions as well. Results show that energy poverty in Belgium is associated with deprivation of several capabilities, in more areas than expected: not only regarding housing, health, and mobility, but also regarding access to culture and recreational activities, as well as the feeling of fulfilment and ontological security. Furthermore, the comparison between energy-poor people and other energy-access groups makes the issue of social stigma clearer, and thus so the dimension of political recognition. In terms of policy, these results suggest to fighting energy poverty as a transversal issue. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Our study investigates solar energy justice in the province of Saskatchewan, Canada. In 2017, we were engaged by the Saskatchewan Power Corporation (SaskPower), a government owned electric utility, to conduct stakeholder engagement workshops for the development of new solar energy programs in Saskatchewan. In coordination with SaskPower we developed a deliberative dialogue approach to the consultation process. Select stakeholders were invited to participate in a half-day workshop. In this workshop participants were asked for input on the principles that would guide SaskPower’s solar energy strategy, the barriers that prevent solar energy from being installed in the province, and their ideas for effective solar energy programs. Participants worked in small groups to design solar energy programs, creating opportunities for mutual learning and deliberation. This research is the first application of deliberative dialogue to the design of solar energy programs of which we are aware and offers an example of due process in the program design stage of energy planning. We use an energy justice decision-making (Sovacool et al., 2014) tool to evaluate the process of designing SaskPower’s solar energy strategy and the content of recommendations made by participants to answer the question, can due process help to achieve energy justice? Participants in our deliberative dialogue suggested guiding principles that were similar to the dimensions of the energy justice decision-making tool. The deliberative process also highlighted tensions between dimensions of the energy justice decision-making tool. In this paper, we suggest avenues to improve the deliberative dialogue process and conclude that centering due process as a core element of the energy justice decision-making tool can help to achieve energy justice. Our results contribute to the growing field of study on how deliberative dialogue can allow for better decisions in complex fields such as energy policy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, a systematic review of academic literature and policy papers since 2008 is undertaken with an aim of identifying the prevalent energy systems models and tools in the UK. A list of all referenced models is presented and the literature is analysed with regards sectoral coverage and technological inclusion, as well as mathematical structure of models. The paper compares available models using an appropriate classification schema, the introduction of which is aimed at making the model landscape more accessible and perspicuous, thereby enhancing the diversity of models within use. The distinct classification presented in this paper comprises three sections, which specify the model purpose and structure, technological detail and mathematical approach. The schema is not designed to be comprehensive, but rather to be a broad classification with pertinent level of information required to differentiate between models. As an example, the UK model landscape is considered and 22 models are classified in three tables, as per the proposed schema. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The adverse environmental consequences and diminishing trend of fossil fuel reserves indicate a serious need for vibrant and judicious energy policy. Energy policy involves a number of stakeholders, and needs to incorporate the interests and requirements of all the key stakeholder groups. This paper presents a methodological technique to assist with formulating, evaluating, and promoting the energy policy of a country in a transparent and representative way with clear scientific justifications and balanced assessments. The multicriteria decision analysis approach has been a widely used technique for evaluating different alternatives based on the interests of a multitude of stakeholders, and goals. This paper utilizes the SMAA (Stochastic Multicriteria Acceptability Analysis) tool, which can evaluate different alternatives by incorporating multiple criteria, in order to examine the preferences of different policy elements. We further extend this technique by incorporating the LEAP model (Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning system) to assess the emission impacts of different policy elements. We demonstrate the application of this evaluation technique by an analysis of four hypothetical policy elements namely Business-as usual (BAU), Renewables (REN), Renewable-biomass only (REN-b), and Energy conservation and efficient technologies (ECET). These are applied to the case of sharing fuel sources for power generation for the Bangladesh power sector. We found that the REN-b and REN policy elements were the best and second best alternatives with 41% and 32% acceptability respectively. This technique gives transparent information for choosing appropriate policy elements that aimed at sustainable energy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The estimation of the value of carbon emissions has become a major research and policy topic since the establishment of the Kyoto Protocol. The shadow price of CO 2 provides information about the marginal abatement cost of this pollutant. It is an essential element in guiding environmental policy issues, since the CO 2 shadow price can be used when fixing carbon tax rates, in environmental cost-benefit analysis and in ascertaining an initial market price for a trading system. The water industry could play an important role in the reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This paper estimates the shadow price of CO 2 for a sample of wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs), using a parametric quadratic directional distance function. Following this, in a sensitivity analysis, the paper evaluates the impact of different settings of directional vectors on the shadow prices. Applying the Mann–Whitney and Kruskal–Wallis non-parametric tests, factors affecting CO 2 prices are investigated. The variation of CO 2 shadow prices across the WWTPs evaluated argues in favour of a market-based approach to CO 2 mitigation as opposed to command-and-control regulation. The paper argues that the estimation of the shadow price of CO 2 for non-power enterprises can provide incentives for reducing GHG emissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purpose of this paper is to review the application of complexity science methods in understanding energy systems and system change. The challenge of moving to sustainable energy systems which provide secure, affordable and low-carbon energy services requires the application of methods which recognise the complexity of energy systems in relation to social, technological, economic and environmental aspects. Energy systems consist of many actors, interacting through networks, leading to emergent properties and adaptive and learning processes. Insights on these type of phenomena have been investigated in other contexts by complex systems theory. However, these insights are only recently beginning to be applied to understanding energy systems and systems transitions. The paper discusses the aspects of energy systems (in terms of technologies, ecosystems, users, institutions, business models) that lend themselves to the application of complexity science and its characteristics of emergence and coevolution. Complex-systems modelling differs from standard (e.g. economic) modelling and offers capabilities beyond those of conventional models, yet these methods are only beginning to realize anything like their full potential to address the most critical energy challenges. In particular there is significant potential for progress in understanding those challenges that reside at the interface of technology and behaviour. Some of the computational methods that are currently available are reviewed: agent-based and network modelling. The advantages and limitations of these modelling techniques are discussed. Finally, the paper considers the emerging themes of transport, energy behaviour and physical infrastructure systems in recent research from complex-systems energy modelling. Although complexity science is not well understood by practitioners in the energy domain (and is often difficult to communicate), models can be used to aid decision-making at multiple levels e.g. national and local, and to aid understanding and allow decision making. The techniques and tools of complexity science, therefore, offer a powerful means of understanding the complex decision-making processes that are needed to realise a low-carbon energy system. We conclude with recommendations for future areas of research and application. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper attempts to inform policy makers and legislators on how to set energy efficiency standards and labelling (S&L) regulations. It draws lessons from the literature on S&L regulations in the Asia–Pacific region and from practical experience in drafting the S&L regulations for Brunei Darussalam. The paper proposes necessary components for effective S&L regulations, as follows: clear liabilities, authoritative administration, open principles for technical systems, and enforceable mechanisms. It also recommends some key issues in good practice toward effective S&L regulations, such as policy making in advance, customised legislation, inclusive and transparent legislative procedure, and flexibility in the legislation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Up to $61trillion of power systems investment is needed to fulfil the Paris Agreement. The mobilisation of so much capital is a huge challenge. As such, energy policy is changing to meet the needs of commercial finance. However, very little has been done to question the justice implications of this capital mobilisation, and what alternatives there are to commercially-oriented finance for low carbon energy systems. This paper uses a comparative analysis of two developed economies to explore how ‘alternative’ forms of finance operate in each nation’s energy investment landscape. We find alternative finance is often set in opposition to commercial capital. Alternative finance in both nations is motivated by financial justice outcomes that are poorly understood in current energy policy. Our findings suggest that 6 principles are key to ‘just’ energy finance: affordability, good governance, due process, intra-generational equity, spatial equity, and financial resilience. Energy policy that seeks to mobilise capital, should take account of all six principles. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The objective of this study is to trace and quantify the sources of rebound effect for different energy sources in China. This paper decomposes the economy-wide rebound effect into 135 production sector-level rebound effects and five final demand components. The sector-level rebound is further decomposed into output effect and substitution effect. A two-stage decomposition method and a static computable general equilibrium model are developed to achieve this. Five types of energy-specific efficiency improvements are introduced, respectively, in all the production sectors. Results show that improving efficiency of using coal leads to the smallest macro-level rebound. For rebound decomposition, four findings are generalized. First, final consumption shows larger impact on the rebound of secondary energy sources than on primary energy sources. Second, production sectors that are big user of the efficiency-exposed energy source are expected to be key rebound contributor. Third, energy-producing sectors make negative rebound contribution. Results also show that, substitution effect is the predominant mechanism that triggers sector-level rebound. Policy implications are also discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Addressing greenhouse gas emissions and the associated global temperature rise will be one of the key issues of the 21st century. The supply and use of energy is the single largest contributor to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions through the burning of fossil fuels. Given the role fossil fuel use plays in the global economy, curtailing their use in order to mitigate climate change will be very difficult. This has led to proposals to deploy various types of geoengineering as a means of mitigating the global temperature increase. Current integrated assessment models (IAMs) do not readily incorporate geoengineering options. They are also complex to set up and run. This has led the authors to develop the Combined Energy and Geoengineering Optimization Model (CEAGOM) © . CEAGOM provides an easy to use software platform that explicitly includes geoengineering as potential options as part of the optimization of the energy resource mix for meeting a specified energy demand while still meeting specified climate targets. This paper describes the CEAGOM model and shows that its results compare quite favorably with those from a more complex IAM. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Bioenergy is likely to play a key role in decarbonising the energy system. The versatility of bioenergy as a transport, heat or electricity fuel is one of its key strengths but can add to the complexity of policy design. Polices aimed at stimulating bioenergy use in one end use sector should consider the impacts of use and uptake in the others. This paper details a methodology for an integrated bioenergy and heat policy decision support tool that is being used to inform policy in Ireland. The previous literature has focused on individual supply chain optimisation, plant sizing and plant locations from an operator’s perspective. The BioHEAT model is a techno-economic model that accounts for the co-dependencies between the end use sectors. It extends the approach to supply chain specification in the literature to incorporate a novel representation of consumer decision making in the heat sector and the flexibility to model various policy types in heat, electricity and transport sectors from a policy making perspective. Three scenarios are examined to demonstrate the functionality of the model, including the interaction between separate policies targeting the Heat and Power sectors. The results demonstrate how the model can be used to examine policy impacts against a range of metrics including the contribution to renewable energy and carbon reduction targets; cost to the exchequer and the marginal cost of carbon abated. The model has helped to inform the development of a renewable heat policy instrument in Ireland. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To gain a fundamental understanding of the factors driving consumer energy behavior and for more effective policy-making, the development of energy consumption models taking into account key behavioral economic concepts is essential. In this direction, this paper presents a fuzzy logic decision-making model incorporating the concepts of bounded rationality, time discounting of gains, and pro-environmental behavior. The fuzzy model is used to characterize and predict consumer energy efficiency and curtailment behaviors in the context of residential cooling energy consumption. The model is developed from the perspective of the human decision-maker and the rules based on human reasoning and intuition. It takes into consideration monetary, personal comfort and environmental responsibility variables to yield predictions of one’s air-conditioning purchase and usage decisions. The results from running the model multiple times to simulate a real large urban population are found to match historical cooling energy use data reasonably well. This allows modelers some degree of confidence in the model. Moreover, perturbing key input variables produces plausible behaviors, thus providing additional validation to the model. This work demonstrates the feasibility of fuzzy logic as a powerful method for combining quantitative economic and physical factors with qualitative behavioral concepts in a single mathematical framework for better prediction of human energy behavior, and greater fundamental understanding of the “why” behind energy use that conventional building energy simulation models do not address. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Electricity grid infrastructures provides valuable flexibility in power systems with high shares of variable supply due to its ability to distribute low-cost supply to load centers (spatial), in addition to interlinking a variety of supply and demand characteristics that potentially offset each others negative impact on system balance (temporal). In this paper, we present a framework to investigate the benefits of alternative flexibility providers, such as fast-ramping gas turbines, hydropower and demand side management, by using a generation and transmission capacity expansion planning model. We demonstrate our findings with a multinational case study of the North Sea Offshore Grid with an infrastructure typology from year 2016 and operational data for year 2030 – considering a range of renewable capacity levels spanning from 0% to 100%. First, we show how different flexibility providers are allocated geographically by the model. Second, operational cost savings are quantified per incremental unit of flexible capacity. Finally, we present a way to rank different flexibility providers by considering their marginal contribution to aggregate cost savings, reduced CO 2 emissions, and increased utilization of renewable energy sources in the system. The Shapley Value from cooperative game theory allows us to assess the latter benefits accounting for all possible sequences of technology deployment, in contrast to traditional approaches. The presented framework could help to gain insights for energy policy designs or risk assessments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Security of supply and progressively climate change are guiding countries' energy policy worldwide. Iceland is a paradigmatic example of gaining energy independence and decarbonizing the power sector while meeting its growing demand. In this paper, we focus on some of the main generation and transmission expansion alternatives that the country is considering for the next decade in an environment dominated by an increasing demand and a generation mix with virtually zero variable cost. We assess the medium- to long-term dimensions of security of supply as determinants of the system configuration and resources utilization. Based on a stochastic hydrothermal scheduling model that includes DC power flows and generation expansion decisions, our analysis indicates that hydro, geothermal and wind renewable resources are more competitive than fossil fuels, while demand flexibility can also contribute to gain security of supply at comparable costs. In addition, our methodology incorporates a detailed bilateral contracting structure typically used by Icelandic generators and consumers to agree on power prices and negotiated curtailments. The modeling and security evaluation could be of interest in other countries and regions where inflexible thermal generation and hydro resources create a market characterized by prices that are close to zero during long periods, but spike when resources are scarce. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Microgrids are considered one of the most promising solutions to integrate renewable distributed generation into the electric power system. During the last decade, the microgrid concept has been studied and developed and nowadays it is becoming a reality. Hence, in the coming years a transformation of the current electric power system to a multi-microgrid power system can be expected. In this direction, the study of multi-microgrids is currently being explored. Accordingly, this paper examines the possible multi-microgrid architectures to form a grid of microgrids. For this purpose, the microgrid as a single entity and its possible interactions with external grids is first defined. Then, the possible multi-microgrid architectures are defined in terms of layout, line technology and interface technology. Finally, a comparison between the different architectures is performed in terms of cost, scalability, protection, reliability, stability, communications and business models. This analysis is expected to be of great utility for grid planners and policy makers, who can select the most adequate architecture in function of their necessities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The need to improve the energy efficiency of buildings has introduced the concept of nearly zero-energy buildings into European energy policies. Moreover, a percentage of the building stock will have to be renovated annually to attain high energy performance. Conventional passive interventions in buildings are focused on increasing the insulation of the building envelope to increase its energy efficiency during the operating phase. Often, however, intervention practices imply the incorporation of embodied energy into the building materials and increase the associated environmental impacts. This paper presents and evaluates a comparison of two different proposals for a real-world building renovation. The first proposal was a conventional project for energy renovation, while the second was a low-energy building proposal (following the Passivhaus standard). This study analysed the proposals using an integrated life cycle and thermal dynamic simulation assessment to identify the adequacy of each renovation alternative regarding the post-renovation energy performance of the building, including an evaluation of the introduction of a renewable insulation material into the low-energy building proposal, specifically a specific cork solution. The most significant conclusion was the convenience of the renovation, achieving energy savings of 60% and 80% for the conventional and Passivhaus renovations (ENERPHIT), respectively. The former supposed less embodied energy and environmental impacts but also generated less energy savings. The latter increased the embodied impacts in the building, mainly for the large amount of insulation material. The environmental implications of both proposals can be compensated for within a reasonable period of time, over 2 years in the majority of alternatives and impact categories. However, the ENERPHIT project was 30% better than the conventional proposal when the total lifespan of the building was considered. The introduction of cork did not fit the requirements for competing with the common non-renewable insulation materials because it did not imply better environmental performance in buildings, but cork insulation solutions currently present ample room for improvement. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In 2011 China initiated policies to promote the adoption of solar photovoltaic (PV) using feed-in tariff (FIT) policies. Since then the PV domestic market expanded substantially. In the past six years, the FIT policies were updated (adjustment of tariff levels, division of three FIT regions, setting of installation quotas) to address emerging problems such as PV waste, explosive installation, unbalanced spatial distribution. This paper aims to investigate the historical development and implementation of FIT policies in China from 2011 to 2016. The tools of net present value (NPV)/internal rate of return (IRR), learning curve and the system dynamics are employed to show the degree of economic incentives of FIT policies, to understand the learning rate of centralized PV systems, and to study the dynamic mechanism of the FIT system. We conclude that in the near term the tariff levels should be adjusted more frequently to keep IRR values in the range of 8–12%, and a tight quota combined with the deployment of ultra-high voltage (UHV) lines should be continued for the provinces with severe PV waste. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Energy Market Integration (EMI) has been a goal for many regions, including the European Union and East Asia, for quite a long time. How it could play a role in facilitating equitable economic growth among a group of countries remains an empirical question that this paper will attempt to answer. The paper uses economic convergence analysis (including both the σ-convergence and β-convergence approaches) to examine the impact of EMI – measured by two newly constructed indexes (namely, the energy trade index and the energy market competition index) – at the country level on dynamic economic growth paths across countries. Its special interest lies in informing policy making related to promoting EMI. The results show that countries involved in a more integrated energy market are more likely to reduce their income disparity, suggesting that EMI may help the region to achieve equitable growth through the accelerated economic development of lagged economies. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This paper proposes an integrated analytical framework consisting of the following three steps: (1) investigation of consumers’ preferences, (2) prediction of technology diffusion by taking into account consumers’ preferences, and (3) estimation of CO2 emission reduction caused by the diffusion of the examined technology. By using this framework, this paper evaluates the policy measures implemented for disseminating photovoltaics and solar water heaters in terms of the contribution to reducing CO2 emissions from the residential sector. We investigated consumer preferences for these technologies as well as the effects of attributes such as installation cost, energy price, energy efficiency, and perception on consumers’ choices. Considering these effects, we developed a model that estimates the diffusion of these technologies into the residential sector of Japan through 2025 and the resulting CO2 emission reduction. We found that the policy measures for the diffusion of photovoltaics that reduce initial cost (e.g., subsidy programs) are more cost effective for reducing CO2 emission than those reducing users’ operating expenditure (e.g., feed-in tariff programs). For solar water heater to be able to reduce the CO2 emissions considerably, the public perception must be improved. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Households represent one of the most interesting sectors, when analyzing Croatia’s energy balance. It makes up one of the largest energy consumers with around 75PJ per year, which is almost 29% of Croatia’s final energy demand. Considering this consumption, implementing various mechanisms, which would lead to improvements in energy efficiency of this sector, seems relevant. In order to plan future energy systems, important would be to know future possibilities and needs regarding energy demand of different sectors. Through this paper, long term energy demand projections of Croatian households sector will be shown. Focus of the paper will be on various mechanisms influencing future energy demand scenarios. Important would be to quantify this influence, whether positive or negative, and see which mechanisms would be the most significant. Energy demand projections in this paper are based upon bottom-up approach model which combines and processes a large number of input data. The model will be compared to Croatian National Energy Strategy and certain differences and conclusions will be presented. One of the major conclusions shown in this paper is significant possibilities for energy efficiency improvements and lower energy demand in the future, based on careful and rational energy planning. Different financial, legal and technological mechanisms can lead to significant savings in the households sector which leads to lower GHG emissions and lower Croatian dependence on foreign fossil fuels. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Rapid vehicle and powertrain development has become essential to for the design and implementation of vehicles that meet and exceed the fuel efficiency, cost, and performance targets expected by today’s consumer while keeping pace with reduced development cycle and more frequent product releases. Recently, advances in large-scale additive manufacturing have provided the means to bridge hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) experimentation and preproduction mule chassis evaluation. This paper details the accelerated development of a printed range-extended electric vehicle (REEV) by Oak Ridge National Laboratory, by paralleling hardware-in-the-loop development of the powertrain with rapid chassis prototyping using big area additive manufacturing (BAAM). BAAM’s ability to accelerate the mule vehicle development from computer-aided design to vehicle build is explored. The use of a hardware-in-the-loop laboratory is described as it is applied to the design of a range-extended electric powertrain to be installed in a printed prototype vehicle. The integration of the powertrain and the opportunities and challenges it presents are described in this work. A comparison of offline simulation, HIL and chassis rolls results is presented to validate the development process. Chassis dynamometer results for battery electric and range extender operation are analyzed to show the benefits of the architecture. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Deep decarbonisation of the electricity sector is central to achieving the United Kingdom’s (UK) climate policy targets for 2050 and meeting its international commitments under the Paris Agreement. While the overall strategy for decarbonising the energy system has been well established in previous studies, there remain deep uncertainties around the total investment cost requirements for the power system. The future of the power system is of critical importance because low carbon electricity may create significant opportunities for emissions reduction in buildings and transport. A key policy application of quantitative analysis using models is to explore how much investment needs to be mobilised for the energy transition. However, past estimates of energy transition costs for the UK power sector have focused only on 2030 rather than 2050 and consider a relatively narrow range of uncertainties. This paper addresses this important research gap. The UK government's main whole system energy economy model is linked to a power system model that employs an advanced approach to uncertainty analysis, combining Monte Carlo simulation with Modelling-to-Generate Alternatives (MGA), producing 800 different scenario pathways. These pathways simultaneously consider uncertainties in policy, technology and costs. The results show that with No Climate Policy , installed generation capacities in 2050 are found in the range 60–75 GW, while under an 80% Reduction in GHG Emissions , between 100 GW and 130 GW of plant are required. Meeting climate targets for 2050 is also found to increase the investment requirements for new electricity generation. The interquartile range for cumulative investments in new generation under the No Climate Policy scenario ranges from £60bn to £75bn, while under an 80% Reduction in GHG Emissions , investment requirements approximately double to £110bn - £140bn. The exercise demonstrates the importance of uncertainty analysis to policy evaluation, yielding insights for future research practice both in the UK and internationally. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Residential energy consumption is one of the main contributors to CO 2 emissions in the UK. One strategy aimed at reducing emissions is to increase retrofitting rates of buildings. In this paper, an alternative approach is discussed and its potential impact on energy use assessed, that of downsizing (moving to smaller homes). Reviews of previous research show that a wide range of what can be termed psychological barriers exist to downsizing, such as the loss of ownership and independence, concern about what to do with possessions, not having enough space for visitors, and attachment to one’s home. Benefits of downsizing from a personal perspective are economic, with lower bills and/or rent, release of capital, lower maintenance costs, and also potential lifestyle improvements including living in easier-to-maintain and more age-appropriate housing. Wider societal benefits include the potential to significantly reduce energy consumption, and mitigating the housing crisis in cities where not enough properties are available. Empirical analysis on a nationally representative sample in England showed that building size alone accounts for 24% of the variability in energy consumption (compared to 11% of household size). If single-person households with more than two bedrooms downsized by one bedroom, energy-savings of 8% could be achieved, and if single-person households occupied only one bedroom, savings of 27%. Data also showed a significant amount of underoccupation, with almost two-thirds of households having more bedrooms than considered necessary compared to the bedroom-standard. However, analysis also revealed a structural barrier to downsizing, namely the lack of available alternative, smaller houses. The evidence would suggest that downsizing could realize significant energy savings, and address a range of other social benefits. However, against this stand significant personal interests, inadequate alternative housing and other infrastructure issues. Promoting downsizing as a means to achieve energy policy goals is therefore a potentially significant but socially challenging policy option. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since wind energy is rapidly growing, new wind farms are installed worldwide and a discussion is going on concerning the optimal political framework to promote this development. In this paper, we present a wind energy index, which is supportive for wind farm planners, operators, and policy-makers. Based on long-term and low-scale reanalysis wind speed data from MERRA and true production data, it can predict the expected wind energy production for every location and turbine type. After an in-sample and out-of-sample evaluation of the index performance, it is applied to assess the wind energy potential of locations in Germany, to compare different turbine types, and to derive the required compensation in terms of locally different feed-in tariffs. We show that in many parts of South Germany, profitability of new wind farms cannot be achieved given the current legal situation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) are omnipresent in energy policy analysis. Even though IAMs can successfully handle uncertainty pertinent to energy planning problems, they render multiple variables as outputs of the modelling. Therefore, policy makers are faced with multiple energy development scenarios and goals. Specifically, technical, environmental, and economic aspects are represented by multiple criteria, which, in turn, are related to conflicting objectives. Preferences of decision makers need to be taken into account in order to facilitate effective energy planning. Multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) tools are relevant in aggregating diverse information and thus comparing alternative energy planning options. The paper aims at ranking European Union (EU) energy development scenarios based on several IAMs with respect to multiple criteria. By doing so, we account for uncertainty surrounding policy priorities outside the IAM. In order to follow a sustainable approach, the ranking of policy options is based on EU energy policy priorities: energy efficiency improvements, increased use of renewables, reduction in and low mitigations costs of GHG emission. The ranking of scenarios is based on the estimates rendered by the two advanced IAMs relying on different approaches, namely TIAM and WITCH. The data are fed into the three MCDM techniques: the method of weighted aggregated sum/product assessment (WASPAS), the Additive Ratio Assessment (ARAS) method, and technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS). As MCDM techniques allow assigning different importance to objectives, a sensitivity analysis is carried out to check the impact of perturbations in weights upon the final ranking. The rankings provided for the scenarios by different MCDM techniques diverge, first of all, due to the underlying assumptions of IAMs. Results of the analysis provide valuable insights in integrated application of both IAMs and MCDM models for developing energy policy scenarios and decision making in energy sector. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The power generation mix are significantly changing due to the growth of stricter energy policies. The renewables are increasingly penetrating the power systems and leading to more clean energy and lower energy prices. However, they also require much more flexibilities and ancillary services to handle their uncertainties and variabilities. Thus, the requirements for regulation and reserve services may dramatically increase while the supplies of these services, which are mainly from the traditional thermal plants, remain almost invariant. This changing situation will cause higher regulation and reserve prices and impact the profit models and revenue structures of the traditional plants. How electricity markets are actually evolving with the changing generation mix? Can enough backup power plants be given adequate economic incentives and thus remained with the increasing renewables and the decreasing energy prices and productions? Can de-carbonization be fully performed in power systems? To explicitly answer the question, this paper uses a multi-period Nash-Cournot equilibrium model to formulate the evolution of power markets incorporating different types of generators, including thermal units, hydro units, wind farms, solar stations and energy storage systems. The price changes in the co-optimized energy, regulation and reserve markets, and the profit changes of various generators are studied. And the variabilities and uncertainties of renewable generation sources are considered in dynamically determining the requirements of regulation and reserve services. Based on the China 2050 High Renewable Energy Penetration Scenario and Roadmap Study , empirical analysis is performed to identify the impacts of the changing generation mix on electricity markets and power industry. The energy storage systems are specifically analysed and compared to reveal their impacts on the profit structures of various generators. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The policies concerning waste cooking oil-to-energy supply chains are urgently needed in China. This is because, in practice, there is a real risk of raw material supply being interrupted. Given that the various participating entities are often unable to accurately estimate either their own revenue stream or costs, or the actions of other stakeholders, this paper builds an evolutionary game to model three parties including the government, biofuel enterprises and restaurants under the assumptions of incomplete information and bounded entity rationality, and investigates supply chain policy options. Results indicate that the strategy choices of the various parties (dominance, treatment and participation) are merely in equilibrium for the time being. In the long run, however, there will be one of two equilibrium states: either all three players withdraw from supply chain operation or biofuel enterprises and restaurants eventually take an active part in reverse supply chain management without government intervention. To attain this long-term goal, governments should eliminate the garbage disposal fees levied on restaurants, while, at the same time, increase quantity-based subsidies to biofuel enterprises. Cracking down on restaurants that privately sell waste cooking oil to illegal peddlers should be regarded as a long-term task. Therefore, in either equilibrium state, restaurants should always be the focus of attention. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Recently, energy production in China fell behind energy consumption. This poses important challenges for the rapidly growing Chinese economy. As a consequence, the causal relationship between energy consumption and GDP is an important empirical issue. This paper examines Granger causality between energy consumption and GDP in China using province-level data. The current paper extends the Granger causality analysis employed in previous studies by taking into account panel heterogeneity. Specifically, four different causal relationships are examined: homogeneous non-causality (HNC), homogeneous causality (HC), heterogeneous non-causality (HENC), and heterogeneous causality (HEC). HC and HNC hypotheses are rejected for causality in either direction, from GDP to energy or from energy to GDP, which implies that the panel made up of Chinese provinces is not homogeneous. Then, heterogeneous causality tests (HEC ad HENC) are conducted for each province. For the causality running from GDP to energy, 19 provinces exhibit HEC and 11 provinces exhibit HENC. For the causality running from energy to GDP, 14 provinces exhibit HEC and 16 provinces exhibit HENC. The results suggest that the Chinese government should incorporate a regional perspective while formulating and implementing energy policies. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The paper presents an investigation on the development of energy security level assessment technology. The system of energy security indicators, covering technical, economic and socio-political aspects, is introduced. The security indicator is a special index which gives numerical values to important issues for security of energy sector. In the paper, each indicator is described by presenting the title, comments, factual and threshold, pre-critical and critical state values. The integral characteristics of these indicators show the level of energy security and in order to identify it, a point system assessment scale is used. The methodology developed in this paper is applied for the assessment of the Lithuanian energy security level in different scenarios. At first, indicator groups are constructed and group weights are determined. The weights of indicators within each group are established in two ways: when all weights are equal and one indicator is dominating. Taking into consideration the assessment of indicators by points, their weights in groups and group weights, the Lithuanian energy security level was determined according to separate indicator blocks. The security level of each indicator and each indicator block, and total security level are presented as the results. The indicators that have the highest impact on the security level increase or decrease are determined as well. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The paper analyses the issues for consideration listed in the stock taking document “New Energy Strategy for Europe 2011–2020” and explores the impact of their implementation on the use of renewable energy sources. The main objective of the paper is to introduce and provide a summary of the theoretical and methodological achievements required for an analysis of the implications of such an EU level strategy. It also provides a summary of the results of the analysis of the impacts of the Strategy on a specific field; namely, on the use of renewable energy sources. Contradictions inherent in the Strategy are discussed as well, and a proposal is put forward to aid the resolution of these contradictions. The paper also points out that the further development of the theoretical and methodological achievements may result in the creation of a simulation model, the application of which could effectively aid the process of strategic planning and the testing of strategies prior to approval. Finally, the paper discusses how an EU level and/or a global network of energy security centres could promote the development and implementation of an energy policy ensuring the appropriate utilization of renewable energy sources. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Even though the Republic of Croatia is on track of achieving goals set in the Europe 2020 strategy, to achieve the goals set in the 2030 European framework for climate and energy policies will require more effort. The new 2030 framework calls for a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by at least 40% compared to the 1990 level, yet the Republic of Croatia does not have such an ambitious plan. In times when wind plants and photovoltaic systems have reached grid parity in the majority of European countries, this paper analysed the influence of construction of wind and photovoltaic power plants in order to present the optimal constructing ratio of such systems on the Croatian power system load. Simulations have been conducted in the EnergyPLAN model for the year 2012. After the simulation presented promising scenarios, applying the Pareto analysis showed the optimal scenario for generating electricity from renewables, scenario with the lowest import of electricity, scenario with the lowest CO 2 emissions and with the lowest critical excess electricity production. In addition, all of the scenarios were subjected to a multiple criteria decision analysis in order to find the best overall scenario. After showing that the best overall scenario was 1.65 GW of wind power plants and 1.6 GW of installed PV capacity, a multi-criteria analysis was performed in order to observe the behaviour of grading the scenarios. Indeed, all of the simulations proved that PV will have a bigger role in the Republic of Croatia than expected. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Applying a parameterized directional distance function approach, this paper estimates the regional total factor efficiency and pollutants’ marginal abatement costs (MACs) in China covering the years 2003–2012. We find that if all provinces produced on the production frontier, China could potentially conserve energy consumption by 29.5%, and reduce emissions of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ) by 28.2% and 27.4%, respectively. The provinces in southeast coastal area performed better than the rest of the country. The bulk of potentials for energy saving and pollution reduction appeared in middle Yellow River, northwest, north coast, and northeast areas. The MAC of CO 2 increased steadily and continuously, while that of SO 2 showed a sharp increase throughout the whole study period. The average MACs of CO 2 and SO 2 for the whole country were 5512 Yuan/tonne and 154,395 Yuan/tonne, respectively. The MACs of SO 2 in different areas were remarkably unbalanced. Our estimates suggest that the opportunities for double dividend of economic production and pollution reduction are potentially achievable. Policymakers are required to facilitate technology transfer and encourage scientific and technological cooperation between inter- and intra-area. Additionally, they should also consider the regional heterogeneity when making the reduction allocations within the economic sectors and make the market prices of pollutants flexible. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]