Search

This paper constructs the broader Divisia monetary aggregate (D2) for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia over the period from 1999 to 2018. Unlike the traditional money supply aggregate (M2), movements of the Divisia monetary aggregate seems to reflect the domestic economic developments and hence can be very useful when setting macroeconomic policies in the Kingdom. In addition, the paper applies the Keynesian Money Demand Theory to estimate the demand for money using the Divisia monetary aggregate. The findings confirm the stability of the money demand function for Saudi Arabia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper proposes a novel hybrid method that extends previous work incorporating the fractionally cointegrated vector autoregressive and the permanent-transitory decomposition model. Using the hybrid method, we investigate whether the rapid rise in China's housing prices is a trend or cyclical fluctuation as well as whether there exists a housing price bubble. The findings indicate there exists a fractional cointegration relationship between housing prices and macroeconomic fundamentals in China, and that the fundamental value of housing prices is determined by macroeconomic factors. In particular, the upward trend in China's housing prices has shifted and decelerated since 2012, in line with GDP and money supply. Moreover, we provide evidence of the existence of a housing price bubble in China since 2012, particularly during the 2015–2018 period. We demonstrate that the hybrid model has a superior forecasting performance and decomposes the trend and cycle components more accurately than the conventional methods when estimating a system of possibly fractional cointegration relationship. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper we examine the statistical properties of the monetary aggregates in Chile in order to know if the time series display mean reverting behaviour. For this purpose, we use techniques based on fractional integration. Monthly data of various Chilean monetary aggregates from January 1986 until August 2019 are used, and the results indicate very weak evidence of mean reversion. In fact, this property is only found in the case of the currency on circulation and M1 for some of the series examined; however, for M2 and M3 the results clearly show high persistence with orders of integration substantially higher than 1. Thus, shocks are expected to have a permanent nature in these cases. Another remarkable feature observed in the results is that the level of persistence in the series seems to grow with the amount of the monetary aggregate. In a multivariate context, performing a FCVAR model, evidence of cointegration is found among the monetary aggregates, finding a long run equilibrium relationship between them. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines whether a long-run relationship exists between CO2 emissions and selected variables: real gross domestic product per capita, inward stock of foreign direct investments, gross fixed capital formation, industry, value added and energy use per capita for Colombia, Indonesia, Viet Nam, Egypt, Turkey and South Africa countries in the period of 1989–2016. We used panel unit root testing, followed by panel cointegration tests and panel causality. The results clearly prove the existence of a bidirectional long-run causal relationship between all the variables except between CO2 emissions and GDP and CO2 emissions and GFCF. Major finding of the short-run causality analysis is that CO2 emission in the short run does not result in changes of other variables. On the other hand, all variables except foreign direct investments (FDI) cause the changes in the CO2 emissions, and there is a positive bidirectional causal relationship between GDP and FDI, between GFCF and FDI, and between GFCF and IVA. Finally, positive unidirectional causal relationship also exists, running from GDP to IVA, GDP to ENUSE, IVA to FDI and ENUSE to FDI. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The expected gains from RES deployment to the reduction of carbon dioxide emissions (CO2) and the cut-off of external dependence of electricity sources could be important. However, it is crucial to understand the determinants of RES growth to help policymakers drawing effective energy polices, involving a commitment of both citizens and governments. In this paper, we use novel panel econometric tools (taking into account structural breaks and cross-section dependence) and find evidence of nonstationary issues and cointegration issues between renewable energy production and its drivers (CO2 emissions, GDP per capita, energy use and dependency). The results thus reveal that non-stationary issues should be attended, otherwise they could be biased. Using suitable estimators (DOLS, FMOLS) with two different data sets and different proxies and taking common factors into account by MG estimates, we find that there is no environmental concerns effect explaining the growth of renewables in European countries. However, national revenues, energy consumption (demand effect) and energy dependency have a positive impact on renewables deployment. Considering these results, economic assistance (subsidies) might be a mean to increase further the renewables deployment in EU countries and education about renewables deployment is needed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates cointegration with respect to nine commodity groups traded on international markets. Nonparametric bootstrapping is utilized in the testing procedure. Of the 21 pairs of price series, investigated here, for 13 the no-cointegration null hypothesis is rejected in favour for the cointegration of the series. In addition to five out of the remaining eight cases that were not cointegrated, a plausible explanation is the prevailing trade policy. Thus a great majority of the institutionally nonregulated cases turn out to get empirical support for being cointegrated. An important statistical finding is that the augmented Dickey-Fuller test for cointegration (CRADF) generally yields p-values that are close to the p-values obtained by the bootstrap testing. But once they differ substantially, it is usually an indication of irregular periods (e.g. structural changes) in the series. The paper conducts also a Monte Carlo simulation experiment to investigate the power and size properties of the tests. Generally the results indicate that the test procedures have pretty low power in small samples. Bootstrapping improves the testing somewhat by leading consistently to a bit more powerful inference. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyzes the joint long-run evolution of wealth and income inequality. We find that top wealth and income shares were cointegrated over the past century in France and the US. We rationalize this finding in two macroeconomic heterogeneous agent models featuring growth and incomplete markets, respectively. In both frameworks, the co-movement of top wealth and income shares is determined by the relative saving rate at the top, i.e. the ratio of the saving rate of rich individuals to the aggregate saving rate. Our empirical results suggest that relative saving rates at the top have been fairly stable over time, thus explaining the observed tight co-movement between top wealth and income shares over the past century. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper applies a relatively new but generalized concept of fractional cointegration to shed some light on the validity of a long-run relationship between monthly black and official US dollar rates of the Brazilian cruzeiro. An investigation of the stochastic properties of these rates reveals that, while the relationship is not cointegrated in their logs, they appear to be fractionally cointegrated if we allow for mean reverting processes that are C/(1, d) with Q < d < 1. The paper demonstrates that relaxing the condition that the residual from the cointegration equation must be a 1(0) process, captures a much wider class of mean-reversion behaviour. Furthermore, an analysis of the short-run dynamics propelling the long-run relationship tends to imply that although the official rate influences the changes in the black rate, this is purely over the short-run. In the longer term, the black rate is found to be the initial receptor of any exogenous shock to the equilibrium and it is the official exchange rate that bears the brunt of short-run adjustment to re-establish the long-run equilibrium relationship. The approach illustrated in this paper is shown to hold enormous potential for tests of mean reversion involving hypotheses popular to economic and financial research in general, where the dynamics of time-series data are under constant scrutiny. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper utilizes a panel cointegration approach to investigate the relationship between remittances and financial development in the top remittance recipient countries in Sub-Saharan Africa. Our results point to a significant and positive long-run relationship. More specifically, the pooled-mean group estimates indicate that a one-percentage point increase in remittance inflows promotes financial development by more than one percentage point. In addition, the results support the existence of bidirectional causality between remittances and financial development in the long-run. We also find some evidence that remittance pricing has a negative impact on the long-run relationship between remittances and financial development. While the results suggest that remittance inflows promote financial development, migrant workers may be timing the foreign exchange market to remit. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates dynamic and causal relations between stock returns and mutual fund flows in Korea using a system method that utilizes information from the stock, bond, and money markets. For this purpose, we employ the Dynamic Seemingly Unrelated Regression, the Seemingly Unrelated Regression Error Correction Model, and two causality tests in a system method to account for cross-equation correlations among markets that have a close relationship with one another. Furthermore, we use the information in the variance-covariance matrix of residual to improve the efficiency of the statistical estimates. The empirical evidence from the system method indicates that fund flows do not respond to eliminate deviations from long-run equilibrium, and stock prices cause net fund flows in the Korean market, implying that investors move their money to the securities that yield higher returns to rebalance their investment portfolios in the short-run. Thus, our findings do not support the popular notion of mutual fund flows as the driving force behind rallies in the Korean financial markets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China's growing importance to the Australian economy has been well recognized in policy circles but remained relatively untested in formal empirical analysis. This paper examines the reactions of Australian macroeconomic variables to Chinese money growth and inflation over the post-2002 period using VAR estimation, historical decompositions and long-run cointegration models. The consistent impact of Chinese money growth on Australian inflation and on the exchange rate seen in the VAR analysis is supplemented by evidence of cointegrating relationships between the Australian variables and both Chinese money growth and Chinese inflation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper employs multivariate panel cointegration techniques to re-examine the empirical relationship between bilateral real exchange rates and real interest rates. The results from a panel of 1470 quarterly observations on Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, UK, and USA over the period 1977 to 1994 indicate the absence of any long-run relationship between the two variables. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper analyses the relations between foreign policy and export performance. The paper deals with exports of selected European countries and the USA to Middle Eastern countries including Israel. Cointegration analysis is used to identify common stochastic trends in export series. A long-term relationship implies no significant influence of foreign policy differences on trade performance. According to the Johansen tests applied to bivariate and multivariate models, German, Austrian, Dutch and EU exports to Israel are cointegrated with the US exports, while Swiss exports are never cointegrated with the exports of these countries. This result confirms the importance of foreign policy in trade performance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates, for the first time, whether there is a relationship between international trade and international travel flows using time series econometric techniques. Using data for Australia and four important travel and trading partners, the USA, the UK, NZ and Japan, the paper tests three specific hypotheses: that business travel leads to international trade; that international trade leads to international travel; and that international travel, other than business travel, leads to international trade. Using cointegration and Granger-causality approaches the paper finds support for prior beliefs that there is a relationship between international travel and international trade, and suggests that this may be a fruitful area for further research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Unlike previous studies on the casual relationship between energy consumption and economic growth, this paper illustrates how the finding of cointegration (i.e. long-term equilibrium relationship) between these variables, may be used in testing Granger causality. Based on the most recent Johansen's multiple cointegration tests preceded by various unit root or nonstationarity tests, we test for cointegration between total energy consumption, real income and price level of two Asian LDCs: Thailand and Sri Lanka. Nonrejection of cointegration between variables rules out Granger noncausality and implies at least one way of Granger-causality either unidirectional or bidirectional. Secondly, by using a dynamic vector error-correction model, we then analyse the direction of Granger-causation and hence the within-sample Grangerexogeneity or endogeneity of each of the variables. Thirdly, the relative strength of the causality is gauged (through the dynamic variance decomposition technique) by decomposing the total impact of an unanticipated shock to each of the variables beyond the sample period, into proportions attributable to shocks in the other variables including its own, in the multivariate system. Finally, these response paths of shocks to the system are traced out using impulse response graphs. Results based on these four tools of methodology, broadly indicate that all three variables are cointegrated and exhibit two common trends within each system. Energy consumption seems to be relatively exogenous as neither income nor prices seems to Granger cause this variable via any of the channels where potential casuality may occur. Though, energy consumption itself plays an important role in influencing income and prices by varying degrees of significance for each country. Overall, shocks to the system seemed to have had a more sustained if not pronounced effect in Thailand than in Sri Lanka. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper suggests a short-run model of the demand for steel that may be used for forecasting future trends. The paper commences with consideration of a long-run model which is estimated using cointegration analysis. An error correction model is then developed to depict the short-run movements to equilibrium. This can be used for the purpose of ex-post forecasting. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although a major objective of aid donors is to improve health outcomes in recipient countries, there is relatively little research on whether aid to the health sector leads to improved health outcomes, and even less on the impact of total aid. This paper examines the relationship between total aid and population health using panel cointegration and causality techniques designed to deal with problems afflicting previous aid-health studies: spurious regressions, omitted variables, endogeneity, cross-sectional dependence, and parameter heterogeneity. The main results are: (i) aid has, on average, a small but negative long-run effect on health, (ii) while the long-run (or trend) effect of aid on health is negative, the short-run (temporary) effect of aid on health is positive, (iii) causality runs in only one direction, from aid to health, and (iv) aid worsens health mainly in sub-Saharan countries, but has a positive, albeit statistically insignificant, long-run impact on health in Latin American and Caribbean countries and in countries with negative values of net ODA. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper is an empirical assessment of the government finance and food security nexus in China from 1978 to 2016. Using autoregressive distributed lag for linear and threshold cointegration, the results suggest that China’s government finance and food security have reinforced each other throughout the reform era when a structural break was allowed in the model. However, the strength of cointegration and Granger causality in the government-led food security link is stronger, hence supporting the state interventionist view that a strong state has played a dominant role in fulfilling national food security in China. China’s government finance and food security changes indicate food sector reform probabilities under fiscal constraint, as regime-switching indicators have delineated the Chinese government’s difficult fiscal periods and the main reforms in the food sector. In practice, this result implies that further policy reforms can be effective for China’s future food security. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper employs four cointegration test approaches, PO, HI, JJ and KSS, to test for pairwise long-run equilibrium relationships between Taiwan's stock price index and each of the stock price indexes of four European markets – French, German, Dutch, and British stock markets. The results from these four tests are robust and clearly consistent in suggesting that the Taiwan stock market is not pairwise cointegrated with the four European stock markets. This provides strong evidence that there exist long-run benefits for Taiwan investors diversifying in the equity markets of Taiwan's major European trading partners, France, Germany, Holland, and the UK, over the sample period considered from 6 January 1998 to 30 May 2002. These findings could be valuable to Taiwan individual investors and financial institutions holding long-run investment portfolios in the equity markets of France, Germany, Holland, and the UK. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the linkages between US and Latin American stock markets during the 1995-2002 period using recently developed cointegration techniques that allow for structural shifts in the long-run relationship. Results suggest that when conventional cointegration tests are applied, a long-run relationship is found only in the cases of Brazil and Mexico for the Dow Jones (DJ) index, and in the case of Brazil for the Standard and Poor's 500 (SP500) index. In contrast, if the possibility of structural breaks is introduced, strong evidence is found in favour of such a relationship between the Argentine, Chilean and Venezuelan indices and the DJ index after the 1998 financial turmoil, and between the Brazilian and Mexican indices and the DJ index before such turbulence, while some marginal cointegration is detected between the Mexican and DJ indices from February 1998. Additionally, evidence is found of a cointegrating relationship between the Argentine, Chilean and Mexican indices and the SP500 index from August 1998, April 1999 and October 1999, respectively, and between the Brazilian and the SP500 indices before November 1997, as well as some marginal cointegration between the Mexican and SP500 indices before October 1999. The results suggest that the gains from international diversification for investors with long holding periods is limited. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates the causal links between trade, economic growth and inward foreign direct investment (FDI) in China at the aggregate level. The integration and cointegration properties of quarterly data are analysed. Long-run relationships between growth, exports, imports and FDI are identified in a cointegration framework, in which this paper finds bi-directional causality between economic growth, FDI and exports. Economic development, exports and FDI appear to be mutually reinforcing under the open-door policy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the role of tourism in the Spanish long-run economic development. The tourism-led growth hypothesis is confirmed through cointegration and causality testing. The results indicate that, at least, during the last three decades, economic growth in Spain has been sensible to persistent expansion of international tourism. The increase of this activity has produced multiplier effects over time. External competitivity has also been proved in the model to be a fundamental variable for Spanish economic growth. From the empirical analysis it can be inferred the positive effects on income that government policy, in the adequacy of supply as well as in the promotion of tourist activity, may bring about. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The cointegration technique, based originally on nonstationary component, reduced 'Dimension Reduction' to some linear combination that is stationary. The obtained dimension has unit minimum and s - 1 maximum linear combination setting, where s stands for number of components in the system. In this paper a new reduction concept is provided that explains fractional cointegrated system. This reduction is located on specific angle and defined as the cointegration direction. The reduction 'Level Reduction' exists with smaller level of fractional orders, i.e. when -0.5 < d[sub z] < 0.5, where d[sub z] represent the fractional differences of the linear combination series, while the original series orders are in &ges; 0.5 level and the system is fractionally cointegrated. This, of course, can be considered as a new way to detect fractional cointegration relation among variables of the same order of differencing in the frequency domain. A concept Periodogram Roughness (PR) is used to estimate and test the cointegration direction. The description of the direction property will be presented. A test statistic is presented that is based on the difference between the maximum and minimum of the PR. Using Monte Carlo simulations, it is found that the properties of the test perform satisfactorily regarding both size and power. Fractional differencing of linear combination series is estimated using Periodogram Roughness. This approach is illustrated using quarterly data on the government spending and revenue in Finland during the period of 1960 to 1997. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper discusses the way that the effects of a tariff cut process on trade flows should be analysed when the variables are nonstationary. Using cointegration techniques and the error correction mechanism, it is possible to establish the different types of structural break that might appear in the behaviour of a trade flow as a consequence of the trade liberalization process, both in the short and in the long-run. In order to illustrate the results, the evolution of the Spanish imports of manufacturers after Spain's entry into the European Community is analysed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper a simple model of foreign direct investment is developed and tested on investment flows from the USA to Mexico between 1967 and 1994 using cointegration analysis. Domestic demand and relative factor costs are found to influence direct investment flows, suggesting support for both the 'cheap labour' and 'market size' hypotheses. The short-run dynamics of the model indicate that exchange rate movements have an effect on the timing of the investment decision. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the response of Bangladesh's aggregate merchandise exports to a real exchange rate-based trade liberalization programme during the period 1974-1995. The cointegration and error correction modelling approaches have been applied. The empirical results suggest that there exists a unique long-run or equilibrium relationship among real quantities of export, relative export price and export-weighted real effective exchange rate. The short-term dynamic behaviour of Bangladesh's export supply has been investigated by estimating an error correction model in which the error correction term has been found to be correctly signed and statistically significant. Relative export price (lagged two quarters), real effective exchange rate, predicted values of real GDP (lagged one quarter) and a dummy variable capturing the effects of trade liberalization programme have all emerged as important determinants of an aggregate export supply function for Bangladesh. The error correction model has also been found to be robust as it satisfies all relevant diagnostic tests. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study aims to explore the impact of output and wage on labour demand in Saudi Arabia at sectoral level. We applied cointegration and equilibrium correction methods to the time-series data of 10 sectors over 1995–2016 using the demand side framework and considering the structural breaks in the data. We found that in the long run, the employment is positively affected by the output while the impact of the wage was negative in all sectors. In the short-run, employment growth in all sectors reacted to the wage growth except for the government sector. While only some sectors responded to the output growth, we also found that employment can adjust to the desired equilibrium level in all sectors but time horizon for the adjustment processes varies across the sectors. Differences in estimated coefficients imply that policies should be sector-specific as a 'one-fits-all' policy would fail to consider the sectoral specificities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

On several occasions, the 1980s witnessed non-Keynesian effects of fiscal contractions. Most notably, cuts in government spending in Ireland, Denmark and Germany are known to have coincided with increases in private consumption spending. Self-fulfilling expectations about the effects of stabilization policies may explain these and a diversity of opposing experiences. This paper formulates a dynamic stochastic equilibrium model with equilibrium indeterminacy, which allows for sunspot fluctuations as well as for systematic consumption effects of government policy in either direction. Cointegration tests and Euler equation estimates suggest that the model is approximately in accord with German data. Parameter estimates imply that the non-Keynesian experiences are not due to self-fulfilling expectations but to the productivity effects of government-provided infrastructure services. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, the own and cross-price flexibilities for four high valued species (bass, lobster, sole and turbot) landed in the UK are estimated. System of equation models were developed using the vector error correction model (VECM) approach. Johansen's multivariate approach was used to obtain estimates of the long run steady state relationship (vectors) between fish prices and landings. To find unique vectors (i.e. no interdependent vectors) zero restrictions on the coefficients of the price variables were applied so that the model effectively contained quantity independent variables only. The resulting vectors were four unique cointegration long run relationships of monthly fish prices and landings. Various tests suggested that the variables were I (1) nonstationary variables. The model also suggested that there are more than one cointegration vectors (relationships) between the variables. It was found that bass has the largest absolute long run own price flexibility. Bass and lobster were found to be weak substitutes while sole and turbot were found to be substitutes. The results suggest, however, that the relationship is not symmetrical, with the quantity of sole having a greater effect on the price of turbot than turbot on sole. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper provides new evidence on the long-run relationship between imports and exchange-rate volatility in G-7 countries. The period examined is 1973:2 through 1995:1. Cointegration analyses are based on Johansen's (1991, 1994) approach and robust single-equation methods of Stock and Watson (1993) and Phillips and Loretan (1991). In conformity with theoretical considerations, the results indicate that exchange-rate volatility has a significant negative effect on the volume of imports of most G-7 countries whereas for Canada, it is positive and significant. These findings are reasonably robust in terms of measures of exchange-rate volatility and different estimation methods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the time series properties of state and national unemployment rates. Based upon unit root, variance ratio, and cointegration tests, as well as Granger-causality and error-correction model results, several important conclusions can be made. First, forecasting models that include only levels of unemployment rates may produce spurious regression results. Second, in the vast majority of cases, there is no long run co-movement between the aggregate US unemployment rate and individual state unemployment rates. Third, models that are specified in first-differences generally yield reliable insights into state-national unemployment relationships. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyses the dynamic relationship between the degrees of indexation of wages and public bonds in Brazil. A simple model is constructed to show that both degrees of indexation are determined simultaneously. We apply cointegration techniques and estimate error-correction representations to assess the temporal causality between them. Our results provide empirical support for the existence of simultaneity in the degrees of indexation in Brazil in the period 1980-93. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper employs cointegration and error correction models to examine the dynamics of the yen-dollar real exchange rate and the US-Japan real trade balance. It uses quarterly data from 1973.I-1993.IV. The unit root tests reveal non-stationarity in both the variables. The ADF test fails to affirm any long-run association between the yen-dollar real exchange rate and the US-Japan real trade balance. Also, there is evidence of bidirectional short-run Granger causality between these two variables with mutual feedbacks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article presents information on export-growth relationship using various time series techniques. More importantly, this paper seeks to provide a comprehensiveness in terms of the application of "good practice" the "economic" and "accounting" effects of exports on growth, a distinction missing in many recent contributions. It also investigates the effects of decomposing aggregate exports into traditional and non-traditional categories. Finally, it seeks to use a comprehensive econometric methodology which investigates nonstationarity, structural break, cointegration, causality and error-correction characteristics of the data. The aim of this paper, therefore, is to synthesize the existing empirical work and to comprehensively examine the relationship between exports and output growth, using time series data for Malaysia. The exports sector may generate positive externalities on nonexports sector, through more efficient management styles and improved production techniques. Export growth may increase the scope for economies of scale in exporting firms and encourage the allocative efficiency and dynamic competitiveness.

In past research on the long-run behaviour of exchange rates the possibility of cointegration among spot rates has been rejected. This rejection is surprising as some exchange rates are bound by official agreements to comove over time. The European Monetary System (EMS) is an example of such an officially coordinating system. In this paper we extend past research by focusing on only EMS rates and use potentially more powerful cointegration tests to show that EMS rates are cointegrated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper derives major theoretical constructs which underlie Richardian equivalence, and using multicointegration methodology, empirically tests whether they bear out. Results indicate that government spending and revenues are cointegrated. However, the cointegrating scalar is less than one. Therefore, in order for government to obey its intertemporal budget constraint, debt and government revenue must be multicointegrated; they are not. Additional evidence indicates that saving and debt may be weakly cointegrated. The findings suggest that failure of Richardian equivalence may be due to public rather than private sector failure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we investigate the small-sample performance of LR tests on long-run coefficients in theI(2) model; we focus on a comparison betweenI(2) and near-I(2) data, i.e.I(1) data with a second root very close to unity, and report the results of some Monte Carlo experiments. With near-I(2) data, the finite-sample properties of the tests are (i) similar to those found with genuineI(2) data, (ii) systematically superior to those of the analogous tests constructed in theI(1) model, even if the latter is, in principle, correctly specified and the former is not. Therefore, there seems to be strong support to the idea that, in practice, modelling near-I(2) data using theI(2) model may be a good idea, despite the inherent misspecification. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We estimate a micro-founded life-cycle consumption model for Saudi Arabia over the period 1970–2017 using error correction model procedures. Dynamic adjustments are significant, and both income and wealth are found to have significant effects, with a long-run marginal propensity to consume out of the income of 0.95 and out of the wealth of 0.06. The sensitivity of consumption to income and wealth, as well as the estimated short-term effects of price and real interest rate, are consistent with the rapidly growing Saudi economy. By capturing the key determinants of the life-cycle model, our approach is useful for the design of macroeconomic policy. We estimate the impact of the recent VAT reform. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Applied economists working with time series data face a dilemma in selecting between models with deterministic and stochastic trends. While models with deterministic trends are widely used, models with stochastic trends are not so well known. In an influential paper Harvey (1997) strongly advocates a structural time series approach with stochastic trends in place of the widely used autoregressive models based on unit root tests and cointegration techniques. Therefore, it is important to understand their relative merits. This article suggests that both methodologies are useful and they may perform differently in different models. This article provides a few guidelines to the applied economists to understand these alternative methods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article estimates the long-run production function for a panel of 13Indian manufacturing industries for the period 1981 to 1998. To account for nonstationarity and to avoid spurious regression problems, the panel unit-roots tests as suggested by Im et al. (2003) and the panel cointegration techniques as proposed by Pedroni (1999) were used. The generalized methods of moments (GMM) estimation methodology as suggested by Arellano and Bond (1991) and Blundell and Bond (2000), were used to deal with the simultaneity bias introduced by measurement errors. Based on the panel cointegration test, we found evidence of long-run production relationship for all the selected industries. We also observe increasing returns to scale in 3 out of 13 industries under study. However, comparing the pre- and post-liberalization periods, there are improvements in total factor productivity (TFP) in 9 out of 13 industries in the post-liberalization period of 1991 to 1998. This clearly supports the observations that there are significant economic improvements in the recent Indian economic reforms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper uses a threshold cointegration methodology to explore the properties of long-run purchasing power parity (PPP) in the Pacific nations. Using Japan and the USA as base countries, it is shown that long-run PPP holds for most Asian countries but that the adjustment mechanism is asymmetric. In contrast to symmetric error-correction models, it is found that asymmetric adjustments of nominal exchange rates play an important role in eliminating deviations from long-run PPP. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates a sticky-price model of exchange rate determination: extension of Krugman's target zone model with price inertia applied to the French Franc. A novel theoretical argument is considered, Threshold Cointegration, such that the long-run relationship between the parity and its fundamentals is dormant within a certain range of disequilibria but is restored when the system crosses the boundaries. Over the period 1987-1993, nonlinearities in the FF/DM rate, consistent with the credibility of this target zone, were detected by pointing out a band-reversion mechanism. A shock persistence analysis which highlights a nonlinear reversion of the exchange-rate deviation is also implemented. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A relatively new but generalized concept of fractional cointegration is applied to shed some light on the validity of purchasing power parity (PPP) as a long-run equilibrium condition, by examining the long-run relationship between quarterly consumer price indices and bilateral exchange rates of the Australian dollar and seven major OECD trading partners, over Australia's recent float. The paper demonstrates that relaxing the condition that the residual from the cointegration equation must be a I (0) process, provides a wide range of cases of parity-reversion with processes that are CI (1, d) with 0 < d < 1. Findings tend to suggest that, while standard tests of cointegration fail to support cointegration between nominal exchange rates, domestic and foreign prices, and thus the empirical favour for PPP as a long-run phenomenon, the fractional cointegration analysis permits deviations from equilibrium to follow a fractionally integrated process and hence captures a much wider class of parity or mean-reversion behaviour. Results are mainly supportive of long-run PPP. Furthermore, an analysis of the short-run dynamics propelling the long-run relationship (through a VECM) reveals that domestic prices are consistently the initial receptor of an exogenous shock to the equilibrium and the long-run equilibrium is restored through the short-run adjustment of the nominal exchange rates. These findings are shown to hold clear policy implications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the impact of federally financed business R&D on productivity of the US nonfarm business sector. Results of a cointegration analysis suggest that a long run relation between productivity and total (privately and federally financed) R&D capital stock exists. Moreover, the estimation results do not confirm the finding of previous empirical studies that the productivity effects of federally financed business R&D are lower compared with those of privately financed business R&D. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cointegration and vector autoregression are used to test the 'Tax-and-Spend', 'Spend-and-Tax', and 'Fiscal Synchronization' for ten countries using annual time-series data over the period 1951 to 1996. Three of them are part of the newly industrialized countries of Asia (South Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand) and seven are industrialized countries (Australia, Canada, Japan, New Zealand, South Africa, UK, and the USA). This paper includes GDP as a control variable into the model like Baghestani and Mcnown (1994), Ross and Payne (1998), and Koren and Stiassny (1998). The Johansen (1988) and Johansen and Juselius (1990) cointegration test results indicate that these three variables are cointegrated with two cointegrating vectors for South Korea, one vector for Australia, Canada, South Africa, Taiwan, UK, and the USA, and no vector for Japan, New Zealand, and Thailand. The results from Granger causality tests suggest unidirectional causality running from revenues to spending, supporting the 'Tax-and-Spend' hypothesis, for Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, UK, and the USA. The opposite relationship, supporting the 'Spend-andTax' hypothesis, holds only for Australia and South Africa. In the case of Canada, this study finds a feedback existing between revenues and spending, supporting the 'Fiscal Synchronization' hypothesis. For New Zealand and Thailand, these results support none of the hypotheses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper uses cointegration and multicointegration analysis to explore the issue of twin deficits for the USA in the post-World War II period. The results suggest that prior to 1974 the systems of fiscal and foreign sector variables exhibit multicointegration. These results do not rule out short-run correlations between government deficits and external deficits. However, they do preclude the possibility that the twin deficit phenomenon describes a long-run structural relationship in the post-World War II, Bretton Woods era. In the more recent period, 1974 forward, neither system exhibits evidence of multi/cointegration. But, weak evidence of cointegration is present between fiscal deficits and trade deficits. Error correction models suggest that causality runs from internal to external deficits in the dynamic adjustment process. This evidence provides some support for the notion that more recently fiscal deficits may have contributed to external deficits. In combination with the results from the early sub-period, the evidence indicates that to the extent the twin deficit relationship exists, it is time specific and weak. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purpose of this paper is to test for price parity across different species of whitefish in the European Union. Price parity is defined by a system of cointegrated prices and would be evidence of a single European market for whitefish. Whitefish are of interest because EU fishers receive the largest share of their income from these fish species. Notwithstanding the single market policy of the EU, by establishing national and regional associations to stabilize or increase the local price of fish, fishers operate as if the European market is made up of separate submarkets with price being determined largely within each submarket. If whitefish markets were price cointegrated such associations would be largely ineffective. In that case, what are required are regulations that encompass the European market. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the long run relationship of real interest rates within a number of economic blocs such as Asia–Pacific, Europe, North America using cointegration analysis and vector error correction models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

P-Star models have become increasingly popular in recent years in developed countries. However data constraints have limited their applicability to the LDCs. In this paper, such a model is attempted for India using both annual and quarterly data for the period 1955–1995. It is found that velocity in India is trend stationary and using cointegration techniques it is then possible to develop a model to gauge inflationary pressures in the economy. The model is well calibrated to data, and in out-of-sample forecasts, it significantly outperforms a seasonal ARMA benchmark model. The velocity gap version of the model is particularly successful. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]