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The rise of commodity index traders (CITs) in the early 2000s provides a natural experiment to identify whether passive holding of long agricultural futures positions earns a positive risk premium. We use nearly a decade of daily nonpublic position data for all large traders to compute trading profits in twelve agricultural futures markets. Despite increasing price trends in a majority of markets, CITs were the biggest losers during the sample period, experiencing losses in nine out of twelve markets and an aggregate loss of $6.9 billion. This is just the opposite of the prediction of the theory of normal backwardation.

This article investigates the announcement effects of major USDA reports using intraday Chicago Board of Trade corn futures prices and trading volume from the electronic trading platform for July 2009 to May 2012. Focusing on intraday market reactions, we analyze the extent to which new information impacts and is rapidly reflected in prices. Results show that USDA reports contain substantial information for market participants. Strongest price reactions to the releases are found immediately after the market opens, and market reactions persist for approximately ten minutes. The electronic corn futures market quickly incorporates this new public information, and little evidence exists to support systematic under- or overreactions in prices. Other more subtle reactions occur in the last trading session before USDA announcements as traders adjust their market exposure in anticipation of the release.

This paper evaluates the role that index funds have played in recent convergence problems of Chicago Board of Trade corn, soybean, and wheat futures contracts. These new market participants are widely considered to have inflated futures prices and/or expanded spreads between futures prices. Large spreads in futures markets contribute to a lack of convergence by uncoupling cash and futures markets. Statistical tests provide no evidence that rolling of positions by index funds or the initiation of large index positions in a “crowded market space” have contributed to an expansion of the spreads. Copyright 2011, Oxford University Press.

The paper examines the relationship between statistical measures of forecast accuracy and decision support for determining the most useful forecast method. A decision framework is examined with forecasts used to guide trading decisions of a hog producer, buyer and speculator in the hog market. Out-of-sample forecasts from various models are evaluated using mean square error and returns from trading decisions under risk-efficiency criteria. The results emphasize the importance of evaluating forecasts within specific decision-making situations.