1. 以瓶颈为中心多层次负荷集成的订单交货期预测方法.
- Author
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钟柳艳, 何华鑫, 朱立夏, and 陈亚绒
- Subjects
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TARDINESS , *STANDARD deviations , *FLOW shops , *SIMULATION methods & models , *FORECASTING - Abstract
Aiming at the problem of due-date forecasting for make-to-order production environment, this paper proposed a forecasting method namely BDDF, which integrated multi-level workloads such as order accept, order release and workshop scheduling. This method first estimated the workload of "drum-chain" and "non-drum chain" orders at different levels according to whether the order passed through the bottleneck, and then estimated the throughput time of each level by using Little's law to sum and predict the due-date of the order. This paper used the FlexSim modeling and simulation to compare the system performance of BDDF method and two classical due-date prediction methods under different sequencing rules in the pre-shop, dispatching rules in the workshop, and protective capacity for the bottleneck. The results show that the BDDF method is superior to the classical methods in terms of mean tardy rate, mean tardy and standard deviation of lateness. At the same time, pre-shop sequencing rules, scheduling rules and protective capacity all affect the performance of BDDF method. It is necessary to select appropriate value according to the actual situation to better control the order due-date and avoid order delay. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2023
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