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As a global industry, sport makes potentially significant contributions to climate change through both carbon emissions and influence over sustainability practices. Yet, evidence regarding impacts is uneven and spread across many disciplines. This paper investigates the impacts of sport emissions on climate and identifies knowledge gaps. We undertook a systematic and iterative meta‐analysis of relevant literature (1992–2022) on organized and individual sports. Using a defined search protocol, 116 sources were identified that map to four sport‐related themes: (1) carbon emissions and their measurement; (2) emissions control and decarbonization; (3) carbon sinks and offsets; and (4) behavior change. We find that mega sport events, elite sport, soccer, skiing, and golf have received most attention, whereas grass‐roots and women's sport, activity in Africa and South America, cricket, tennis, and volleyball are understudied. Other knowledge gaps include carbon accounting tools and indicators for smaller sports clubs and active participants; cobenefits and tradeoffs between mitigation‐adaptation efforts in sport, such as around logistics, venues, sports equipment, and facilities; geopolitical influence; and scope for climate change litigation against hosts and/or sponsors of carbon‐intensive events. Among these, researchers should target cobenefits given their scope to deliver wins for both climate mitigation and risk management of sport. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change, of which sea level change is one component, is seldom out of the news. This paper reviews developments in the measurement and understanding of changes in sea level and tides, focusing on the changes during the past century. The main aim has been to demonstrate how sea level and tidal science are now connected intimately with the fields of climate change and geodesy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper reviews the literature on the economics of climate change adaptation in developing countries, and identifies three key points for consideration in future studies. One key point is that all development policy should be formulated using forecasts from climate science as a baseline. When this is not done, there is risk that a false status quo without climate change is seen as an implicit baseline. Another key point is that authors must be clearer about their behavioral assumptions: Many studies either (problematically) assume profit maximization on the side of farm households, or do not specify behavioral assumptions at all. A third important point is that the allocation of rights is crucial for the results; if households have a right to maintain their current livelihoods, the costs of climate change in developing countries are considerably greater than traditional willingness-to-pay studies would indicate. Thus, costs and benefits of climate change adaptation cannot be analyzed using economic aspects only; climate science, behavioral science, and legal and moral aspects have crucial implications for the outcome of the analysis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Our paper reviews recent progress in the study and understanding of observed trends in extreme rainfall events in the Metropolitan Area of São Paulo (MASP). These are discussed in relation to hydrometeorological hazards that trigger natural disasters, such as flash floods, landslides, and droughts, that affect the population and local economies. A review of the most updated literature on rainfall and extremes in the MASP shows a significant increase in the total volume of rainy-season rainfall during the last seven decades. While there were practically no days with heavy rain (more than 50 mm) in the 1950s, these days have been occurring two to five times a year in the last 10 years. This, together with the inappropriate occupation of risky areas, such as slopes and banks of watercourses, leads to inundation, flooding, and landslides. Changes in extremes can be partly due to natural climate variability but can also be related to global warming and/or urbanization. There is ample evidence of an increasing risk of rainfall-related hazards in theMASP. This is particularly so for landslides in vulnerable areas. Exposure will continue to lead to risk increases. This calls for significant improvement in climate and disaster risk reduction and management efforts in theMASP region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Boulding's 1966 paper on the economics of spaceship Earth established the framework for ecological economics and an understanding of economic growth. In ecological economics, economies are conceptualized as open subsystems of the closed biosphere and are subject to biophysical laws and constraints. Economic growth measured as an increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) has generally been associated with increases in the use of energy and materials and the generation of wastes. Scale, composition, and technology are the proximate determinants of environmental impacts. They are often reduced to two: scale (GDP) and intensity (impact per unit GDP). New work described in this paper defines “green” growth as intensity that declines faster than scale increases. Similarly, “brown” growth occurs when intensity declines more slowly than increases in scale, and “black” growth happens when both scale and intensity increase. These concepts are then related to the environmental Kuznets curve, which can be understood as a transition from brown to green growth. Ecological economics provides a macroperspective on economic growth. It offers broad policy principles, and it challenges the primacy of economic growth as a policy objective, but many important questions remain. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cities modify their local climate, and at the same time they suffer from the local impacts of climate change. Our paper discusses the progress and obstacles in three active research topics that contribute to increasing the capability within the urban climate research community for transferring local climate knowledge to society. The first is linked to the production of urban surface descriptions useful for urban climate studies. The concept of local climate zones is now widely used to represent urban climate variability at the neighborhood scale. Land‐use, morphological, architectural, and social data are also needed, and those are being gathered using different approaches. The second is linked to the necessity for producing information directly connected to their effects on society. This requires a strong multidisciplinary approach, and nowadays impact studies are not limited to one dimension but instead cover multiple dimensions. The third is to transfer all this information to city practitioners, so that urban climate features are considered, among many other aspects, in city management. For urban planning, cartographic tools have been introduced to include urban climate diagnosis as well as recommendations for future urbanization. Cities modify their local climate, and at the same time they suffer from the local impacts of climate change. This perspective article discusses the progress and obstacles in three active research areas in urban climate research that contribute to increasing the capability of researchers for transferring local climate knowledge to urban planners. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the problem of achieving global cooperation to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Contributions to this problem are reviewed from noncooperative game theory, cooperative game theory, and implementation theory. We examine the solutions to games where players have a continuous choice about how much to pollute, as well as games where players make decisions about treaty participation. The implications of linking cooperation on climate change with cooperation on other issues, such as trade, are also examined. Cooperative and noncooperative approaches to coalition formation are investigated in order to examine the behavior of coalitions cooperating on climate change. One way to achieve cooperation is to design a game, known as a mechanism, whose equilibrium corresponds to an optimal outcome. This paper examines some mechanisms that are based on conditional commitments, and their policy implications. These mechanisms could make cooperation on climate change mitigation more likely. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The expansion in the geographical distribution of vector-borne diseases is a much emphasized consequence of climate change, as are the consequences of urbanization for diseases that are already endemic, which may be even more important for public health. In this paper, we focus on dengue, the most widespread urban vector-borne disease. Largely urban with a tropical/subtropical distribution and vectored by a domesticated mosquito, Aedes aegypti, dengue poses a serious public health threat. Temperature plays a determinant role in dengue epidemic potential, affecting crucial parts of the mosquito and viral life cycles. The urban predilection of the mosquito species will further exacerbate the impact of global temperature change because of the urban heat island effect. Even within a city, temperatures can vary by 10 °C according to urban land use, and diurnal temperature range (DTR) can be even greater. DTR has been shown to contribute significantly to dengue epidemic potential. Unraveling the importance of within-city temperature is as important for dengue as for the negative health consequences of high temperatures that have thus far been emphasized, for example, pollution and heat stroke. Urban and landscape planning designed to mitigate the non-infectious negative effects of temperature should additionally focus on dengue, which is currently spreading worldwide with no signs of respite. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Extreme heat is a leading weather-related cause of morbidity and mortality, with heat exposure becoming more widespread, frequent, and intense as climates change. The use of heat early warning and response systems (HEWSs) that integrate weather forecasts with risk assessment, communication, and reduction activities is increasingly widespread. HEWSs are frequently touted as an adaptation to climate change, but little attention has been paid to the question of how best to ensure effectiveness of HEWSs as climates change further. In this paper, we discuss findings showing that HEWSs satisfy the tenets of an intervention that facilitates adaptation, but climate change poses challenges infrequently addressed in heat action plans, particularly changes in the onset, duration, and intensity of dangerously warm temperatures, and changes over time in the relationships between temperature and health outcomes. Iterative management should be central to a HEWS, and iteration cycles should be of 5 years or less. Climate change adaptation and implementation science research frameworks can be used to identify HEWS modifications to improve their effectiveness as temperature continues to rise, incorporating scientific insights and new understanding of effective interventions. We conclude that, at a minimum, iterative management activities should involve planned reassessment at least every 5 years of hazard distribution, population-level vulnerability, and HEWS effectiveness. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Nutrition is affected by numerous environmental and societal causes. This paper starts with a simple framework based on three domains: nutritional quality, economic viability, and environmental sustainability, and calls for an integrated approach in research to simultaneously account for all three. It highlights limitations in the current understanding of each domain, and how they influence one another. Five research topics are identified: measuring the three domains (nutritional quality, economic viability, environmental sustainability); modeling across disciplines; furthering the analysis of food systems in relation to the three domains; connecting climate change and variability to nutritional quality; and increasing attention to inequities among population groups in relation to the three domains. For an integrated approach to be developed, there is a need to identify and disseminate available metrics, modeling techniques, and tools to researchers, practitioners, and policy makers. This is a first step so that a systems approach that takes into account potential environmental and economic trade-offs becomes the norm in analyzing nutrition and food-security patterns. Such an approach will help fill critical knowledge gaps and will guide researchers seeking to define and address specific research questions in nutrition in their wider socioeconomic and environmental contexts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD+) provides financial compensation to land owners who avoid converting standing forests to other land uses. In this paper, we review the main opportunities and challenges for REDD+ implementation, including expectations for REDD+ to deliver on multiple environmental and societal cobenefits. We also highlight a recent case study, the Norway-Indonesia REDD+ agreement and discuss how it might be a harbinger of outcomes in other forest-rich nations seeking REDD+ funds. Looking forward, we critically examine the fundamental assumptions of REDD+ as a solution for the atmospheric buildup of greenhouse gas emissions and tropical deforestation. We conclude that REDD+ is currently the most promising mechanism driving the conservation of tropical forests. Yet, to emerge as a true game changer, REDD+ must still demonstrate that it can access low transaction cost and high-volume carbon markets or funds, while also providing or complimenting a suite of nonmonetary incentives to encourage a developing nation's transition from forest losing to forest gaining, and align with, not undermine, a globally cohesive attempt to mitigate anthropogenic climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The fossil record tells us that many species shifted their geographic distributions during historic climate changes, but this record does not portray the complete picture of future range change in response to climate change. In particular, it does not provide information on how species interactions will affect range shifts. Therefore, we also need modern research to generate understanding of range change. This paper focuses on the role that species interactions play in promoting or preventing geographic ranges shifts under current and future climate change, and we illustrate key points using empirical case studies from an integrated study system. Case studies can have limited generalizability, but they are critical to defining possible outcomes under climate change. Our case studies emphasize host limitation that could reduce range shifts and enemy release that could facilitate range expansion. We also need improvements in modeling that explicitly consider species interactions, and this modeling can be informed by empirical research. Finally, we discuss how species interactions have implications for range management by people. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Endangered Species Act of 1973 is one of the nation's most significant and most controversial environmental laws. Over three-and-a-half decades, it has profoundly influenced both private and federal agency behavior. As the scope of that influence has come to be recognized, a law that is ostensibly to be guided by science has inevitably become entangled in politics. The generality of many of the law's key provisions has produced continuing uncertainty and conflict over some basic issues. Among these are what species or other taxa are potentially subject to the Act's protections, what the extent of those protections is, and whether the Act's ultimate goal of recovery is one that is being effectively achieved. New challenges face the administrators of this law, including that of incorporating climate change considerations into the decisions made under the Act, and responding to the information made available by recent advances in genetics. This paper provides a brief overview of the Endangered Species Act's history and its key provisions, and a more in-depth look at some of the current and recurrent controversies that have attended its implementation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper traces the history of the use of ships' logbooks in climatological studies from the earliest days of the 17th century to the present day. Although early theories concerning global air circulations by Halley and Hadley were based on information gathered by mariners and recorded in their logbooks, it has only been in the last two decades that interest has returned to this important, but long-overlooked, source of climatic information. Attention is drawn to the many advantages offered by logbooks, in particular the long period of time that they collectively cover, their near-global geographic range, the large number of such documents that have survived, and the degree of detailed and reliable record that they provide. Before the mid-19th century, much of the recorded information is noninstrumental in character but its scientific potential is reflected in the variety of approaches and methods that have been used in its analysis and in the equally wide range of outcomes, from databases to synoptic charts and long-time series indices that have emerged from the most recent research. Attention is also drawn to the benefits to be derived from old and more recent instrumental logbook data. As only a small percentage of the tens of thousands of logbooks that have been preserved have thus far been examined, the potential for yet further development is enormous. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The quasibiennial oscillation (QBO) dominates the variability of the equatorial stratosphere and also affects the circulation and temperature of the extratropical region. In this paper we review previous work showing that the mid- to high-latitude circulation is weaker (stronger) when QBO easterlies (westerlies) dominate in the low equatorial stratosphere. The accepted explanation for the extratropical QBO signature is based on the QBO modulation of upward propagating planetary Rossby waves. This mechanism is consistent with the strong seasonality observed in the extratropical QBO. The largest QBO signature in the northern extratropical stratosphere occurs during winter when the dominating westerly wind allows the penetration of planetary waves in the northern stratosphere. However, during the southern winter, planetary waves do not disrupt the southern stratospheric vortex and the largest QBO signature is found during the late spring (November). To further illustrate these mechanisms, we analyze the QBO signature on the mid- to high-latitude circulation of the stratosphere using data from the ERA-40 reanalysis. The extratropical signature in both hemispheres is evaluated as a function of the latitude–height structure of the zonal wind in the tropical region in order to determine how the extratropical response depends on the vertical phase structure of the tropical QBO. We also analyze the QBO impact on planetary wave activity in order to determine how this modulation can explain the observed extratropical QBO signal. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A relevant climate feature of the Intra-Americas Sea (IAS) is the low-level jet (IALLJ) dominating the IAS circulation, both in summer and winter; and yet it is practically unknown with regard to its nature, structure, interactions with mid-latitude and tropical phenomena, and its role in regional weather and climate. This paper updates IALLJ current knowledge and its contribution to IAS circulation–precipitation patterns and presents recent findings about the IALLJ based on first in situ observations during Phase 3 of the Experimento Climático en las Albercas de Agua Cálida (ECAC), an international field campaign to study IALLJ dynamics during July 2001. Nonhydrostatic fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model (MM5) simulations were compared with observations and reanalysis. Large-scale circulation patterns of the IALLJ northern hemisphere summer and winter components suggest that trades, and so the IALLJ, are responding to land–ocean thermal contrasts during the summer season of each continent. The IALLJ is a natural component of the American monsoons as a result of the continent's approximate north–south land distribution. During warm (cold) El Niño–Southern Oscillation phases, winds associated with the IALLJ core (IALLJC) are stronger (weaker) than normal, so precipitation anomalies are positive (negative) in the western Caribbean near Central America and negative (positive) in the central IAS. During the ECAC Phase 3, strong surface winds associated with the IALLJ induced upwelling, cooling down the sea surface temperature by 1–2 °C. The atmospheric mixed layer height reached 1 km near the surface wind maximum below the IALLJC. Observations indicate that primary water vapor advection takes place in a shallow layer between the IALLJC and the ocean surface. Latent heat flux peaked below the IALLJC. Neither the reanalysis nor MM5 captured the observed thermodynamic and kinematic IALLJ structure. So far, IALLJ knowledge is based on either dynamically initialized data or simulations of global (regional) models, which implies that a more systematic and scientific approach is needed to improve it. The Intra-Americas Study of Climate Processes is a great regional opportunity to address trough field work, modeling, and process studies, many of the IALLJ unknown features. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate plays a fundamental role in agriculture because of to its influence on production. All processes are regulated by specific climatic requirements. Furthermore, European agriculture, based on highly developed farming techniques, is mainly oriented to high quality food production that is more susceptible to meteorological hazards. These hazards can modify environment–genotype interactions, which can affect the quality of production. The COST 734 Action (Impacts of Climate Change and Variability on European Agriculture), launched in 2006, is composed of 28 signature countries and is funded by the European Commission. The main objective of the Action is the evaluation of possible impacts arising from climate change and variability on agriculture and the assessment of critical thresholds for various European areas. The Action will concentrate on four different tasks: agroclimatic indices and simulation models, including review and assessment of tools used to relate climate and agricultural processes; evaluation of the current trends of agroclimatic indices and model outputs, including remote sensing; developing and assessing future regional and local scenarios of agroclimatic conditions; and risk assessment and foreseen impacts on agriculture. The work will be carried out by respective Working Groups. This paper presents the results of the analysis of the first phase of inventory activity. Specific questionnaires were disseminated among COST 734 countries to collect information on climate change analysis, studies, and impact at the European level. The results were discussed with respect to their spatial distribution in Europe and to identify possible common long- and short-term strategies for adaptation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cities interact with the atmosphere over a wide range of scales from the large-scale processes, which have a direct impact on global climate change, to smaller scales, ranging from the conurbation itself to individual buildings. The review presented in this paper analyzes some of the ways in which cities influence atmospheric thermodynamics and airborne pollutant transport. We present the main physical processes that characterize the urban local meteorology (the urban microclimate) and air pollution. We focus on small-scale impacts, including the urban heat island and its causes. The impact on the lower atmosphere over conurbations, air pollution in cities, and the effect on meteorological processes are discussed. An overview of the recent principal advances in urban climatology and air quality modeling in atmospheric numerical models is also presented. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cut-off low pressure systems (COLs) are defined as closed lows in the upper troposphere that have become completely detached from the main westerly current. These slow-moving systems often affect the weather conditions at the earth's surface and also work as a mechanism of mass transfer between the stratosphere and the troposphere, playing a significant role in the net flow of tropospheric ozone. In the first part of this work we provide a comprehensive summary of results obtained in previous studies of COLs. Following this, we present three long-term climatologies of COLs. The first two climatologies are based on the conceptual model of a COL, using European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) analyses (1958–2002) and National Centers for Environmental Prediction–National Center for Atmospheric Research (1948–2006) reanalysis data sets. The third climatology uses a different method of detection, which is based on using potential vorticity as the physical parameter of diagnosis. This approach was applied only to the ECMWF reanalysis data. The final part of the paper is devoted to comparing results obtained by these different climatologies in terms of areas of preferential occurrence, life span, and seasonal cycle. Despite some key differences, the three climatologies agree in terms of the main areas of COL occurrence, namely (1) southwestern Europe, (2) the eastern north Pacific coast, and (3) the north China–Siberian region. However, it is also shown that the detection of these areas of main COL occurrence, as obtained using the potential vorticity approach, depends on the level of isentropic analysis used. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There are major challenges facing the countries in the Pacific Basin. These include issues of hazardous waste management and the consequent adverse effects of hazardous wastes on human health, the potential disruption of our whole way of life as a consequence of global climate change, and the increasing problem on human health of air pollution and the effects of breathing polluted air. These issues and others were the focus of the 12th meeting of the Pacific Basin Consortium for Environment and Health Sciences, held in Beijing in late 2007. This volume is a collection of papers presented at that meeting, and this introductory chapter provides some perspective on three of the major issues that are of concern in all of the countries in this region. This meeting provided an opportunity for Chinese scientists and those from other countries in the Pacific Basin to share perspectives and possible solutions with others from the international community, and these various approaches are reflected in these proceedings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We review the long‐term climate variations during the last 540 million years (Phanerozoic Eon). We begin with a short summary of the relevant geological and geochemical datasets available for the reconstruction of long‐term climate variations. We then explore the main drivers of climate that appear to explain a large fraction of these climatic oscillations. The first is the long‐term trend in atmospheric CO2 due to geological processes, while the second is the atmospheric ionization due to the changing galactic environment. Other drivers, such as albedo and geographic effects, are of secondary importance. In this review, we pay particular attention to problems that may affect the measurements of temperature obtained from oxygen isotopes, such as the long‐term changes in the concentration of δ18O seawater. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Arctic terrestrial herbivores influence tundra carbon and nutrient dynamics through their consumption of resources, waste production, and habitat‐modifying behaviors. The strength of these effects is likely to change spatially and temporally as climate change drives shifts in herbivore abundance, distribution, and activity timing. Here, we review how herbivores influence tundra carbon and nutrient dynamics through their consumptive and nonconsumptive effects. We also present evidence for herbivore responses to climate change and discuss how these responses may alter the spatial and temporal distribution of herbivore impacts. Several current knowledge gaps limit our understanding of the changing functional roles of herbivores; these include limited characterization of the spatial and temporal variability in herbivore impacts and of how herbivore activities influence the cycling of elements beyond carbon. We conclude by highlighting approaches that will promote better understanding of herbivore effects on tundra ecosystems, including their integration into existing biogeochemical models, new applications of remote sensing techniques, and the continued use of distributed experiments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With ongoing and rapid climate change, ecologists are being challenged to predict how individual species will change in abundance and distribution, how biotic communities will change in structure and function, and the consequences of these climate-induced changes for ecosystem functioning. It is now well documented that indirect effects of climate change on species abundances and distributions, via climatic effects on interspecific interactions, can outweigh and even reverse the direct effects of climate. However, a clear framework for incorporating species interactions into projections of biological change remains elusive. To move forward, we suggest three priorities for the research community: (1) utilize tractable study systems as case studies to illustrate possible outcomes, test processes highlighted by theory, and feed back into modeling efforts; (2) develop a robust analytical framework that allows for better cross-scale linkages; and (3) determine over what time scales and for which systems prediction of biological responses to climate change is a useful and feasible goal. We end with a list of research questions that can guide future research to help understand, and hopefully mitigate, the negative effects of climate change on biota and the ecosystem services they provide. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) represent the world's first effort toward the Paris Agreement goal of keeping global temperature increase well below 2 °C and pursuing 1.5 °C. Little is known about how much the proposed mitigation efforts can reduce the risks and economic damages from unabated climate change and about the consequences if key emitters drop the Paris Agreement. Here, we use CLIMRISK, an integrated assessment model designed to support climate policy at the global, national, and subnational scales where mitigation and adaptation policy decisions are made. We characterize the consequences of unabated climate change and the benefits of current climate policy proposals by means of probabilistic estimates of the economic damages of climate change and uni‐ and multivariate dynamic climate risk indices at a detailed spatial resolution. The results presented reveal that the economic costs and risks are highly unequally distributed between and within countries and larger than previously estimated when warming in urban areas and temporal persistence of impacts are accounted for. Costs and risks can be significantly limited by strict implementation of NDCs, but increase noticeably under noncompliance by large emitters, like the United States. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Large cities account for a significant share of national population and wealth, and exert high pressure on local and regional resources, exacerbating socioenvironmental risks. The replacement of natural landscapes with higher heat capacity materials because of urbanization and anthropogenic waste heat are some of the factors contributing to local climate change caused by the urban heat island (UHI) effect. Because of synergistic effects, local climate change can exacerbate the impacts of global warming in cities. Disentangling the contributions to warming in cities from global and local drivers can help to understand their relative importance and guide local adaptation policies. The canopy UHI intensity is commonly approximated by the difference between temperatures within cities and the surrounding areas. We present a complementary approach that applies the concept of common trends to extract the global contributions to observed warming in cities and to obtain a residual warming trend caused by local and regional factors. Once the effects of global drivers are removed, common features appear in cities' temperatures in the eastern part of the United States. Most cities experienced higher warming than that attributable to global climate change, and some shared a period of rapid warming during urban sprawl in the mid‐20th century in the United States. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Temperature extreme indices were analyzed for five continental regions of southern South America defined according to their climatic characteristics. Gridded observations, reanalysis, and global‐coupled climate models from CMIP5 were used with the approach of temperature extreme trend attribution analysis on fixed‐threshold and percentile‐based temperature extremes indices defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI). The largest positive trends are exhibited in the tropical nights index, and a clear anthropogenic signal is evident in the subtropical region. In the subtropical central Andes, there is a decrease in the frost days index and increases in the tropical nights and summer days indices, and an anthropogenic signal is evident. In the Patagonian region, all trends from the historical runs were significant, while the ones from the natural experiment were nonsignificant, showing the marked effect of anthropogenic forcing in this region in the extreme temperature events. Projected changes in extreme indices for the 21st century are consistent with a warming climate, and larger changes are expected in the warm nights index. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We employ the approach of Roderick and Farquhar (2011) to assess the sensitivity of runoff (R) given changes in precipitation (P), potential evapotranspiration (Ep), and other properties that change the partitioning of P (n) by estimating coefficients that predict the weight of each variable in the relative change of R. We use this framework using different data sources and products for P, actual evapotranspiration (E), and Ep within the Amazon River basin to quantify the uncertainty of the hydrologic response at the subcatchment scale. We show that when estimating results from the different combinations of datasets for the entire river basin (at Óbidos), a 10% increase in P would increase R on average 16%, while a 10% increase in Ep would decrease R about 6%. In addition, a 10% change in the parameter n would affect the hydrological response of the entire basin around 5%. However, results change from catchment to catchment and are dependent on the combination of datasets. Finally, results suggest that enhanced estimates of E and Ep are needed to improve our understanding of the future scenarios of hydrological sensitivity with implications for the quantification of climate change impacts at the regional (subcatchment and subbasin) scale in Amazonia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Poorer, hotter countries are more vulnerable to climate change and will experience more negative impacts. The pattern of vulnerability between countries is used to impute impacts for income deciles within countries, for administrative regions, and for grid cells. Almost three‐quarters of people will face worse impacts than their country average. Between‐country variation is larger than within‐country variation for income deciles and regions, and about as large for grid cells. I here revisit earlier estimates of the economic impact of climate change and extend the analysis to impute the distribution of impacts within countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Awe and wonder appear to be powerful emotions that can inform and shape our attitudes toward ourselves and others, especially in relation to the larger meaning and purpose of our lives. What are the psychological underpinnings of these universal emotions? How does awe, for example, relate to self‐knowledge, and more generally to understanding the enigmatic contradictions of human nature? Is it possible to cultivate and develop this emotion as an ethical incentive in our relationships with others? Are awe and wonder capable of awakening and engendering moral transformation? Does the emotion of awe lie at the root of the religious impulse in humans? and Is there any room left for a sense of the miraculous in today's increasingly scientific and secular world? Professor of religious studies Lisa Sideris joins psychologists Jennifer Stellar and Piercarlo Valdesolo to explore how awe shapes our perspectives and views on everything from science to morality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Globally, thermodynamics explains an increase in atmospheric water vapor with warming of around 7%/°C near to the surface. In contrast, global precipitation and evaporation are constrained by the Earth's energy balance to increase at~2-3%/°C.However, this rate of increase is suppressed by rapid atmospheric adjustments in response to greenhouse gases and absorbing aerosols that directly alter the atmospheric energy budget. Rapid adjustments to forcings, cooling effects fromscattering aerosol, and observational uncertainty can explainwhy observed global precipitation responses are currently difficult to detect but are expected to emerge and accelerate as warming increases and aerosol forcing diminishes. Precipitation increases with warming are expected to be smaller over land than ocean due to limitations on moisture convergence, exacerbated by feedbacks and affected by rapid adjustments. Thermodynamic increases in atmospheric moisture fluxes amplify wet and dry events, driving an intensification of precipitation extremes. The rate of intensification can deviate from a simple thermodynamic response due to in-storm and larger-scale feedback processes, while changes in large-scale dynamics and catchment characteristics further modulate the frequency of flooding in response to precipitation increases. Changes in atmospheric circulation in response to radiative forcing and evolving surface temperature patterns are capable of dominating water cycle changes in some regions. Moreover, the direct impact of human activities on the water cycle through water abstraction, irrigation, and land use change is already a significant component of regional water cycle change and is expected to further increase in importance as water demand grows with global population. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite a globally uniform increase in the concentrations of emitted greenhouse gases, radiatively forced surface warming can have significant spatial variations. These define warming patterns that depend on preexisting climate states and through atmospheric and oceanic dynamics can drive changes of the hydrological cycle with global-scale feedbacks. Our study reviews research progress on the hydrological cycle changes and their effects on multiscale climate variability. Overall, interannual variability is expected to become stronger in the Pacific and Indian Oceans and weaker in the Atlantic. Global monsoon rainfall is projected to increase and the wet season to lengthen despite a slowdown of atmospheric circulation. Strong variations among monsoon regions are likely to emerge, depending on surface conditions such as orography and land-sea contrast. Interdecadal climate variability is expected to modulate the globally averaged surface temperature change with pronounced anomalies in the polar and equatorial regions, leading to prolonged periods of enhanced or reduced warming. It is emphasized that advanced global observations, regional simulations, and process-level investigations are essential for improvements in understanding, predicting, and projecting the modes of climate variability, monsoon sensitivity, and energetic fluctuations in a warming climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In our discussion of environmental and ecological catastrophes or disasters resulting from extreme weather events, we unite disparate literatures, the biological and the physical. Our goal is to tie together biological understandings of extreme environmental events with physical understandings of extreme weather events into joint causal accounts. This requires fine‐grained descriptions, in both space and time, of the ecological, evolutionary, and biological moving parts of a system together with fine‐grained descriptions, also in both space and time, of the extreme weather events. We find that both the "storyline" approach to extreme event attribution and the probabilistic "risk‐based" approach have uses in such descriptions. However, the storyline approach is more readily aligned with the forensic approach to evidence that is prevalent in the ecological literature, which cultivates expert‐based rules of thumb, that is, heuristics, and detailed methods for analyzing causes and mechanisms. We introduce below a number of preliminary examples of such studies as instances of what could be pursued in the future in much more detail. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In our study, we present a purely statistical observations‐based model‐free analysis that provides evidence about Granger causality (GC) from long‐lived radiative forcings (LLRFs) to the climate trend (CT). This relies on having locally ordered breaks in the slopes of the trend functions of LLRF and the CT, with the break for LLRF occurring before that of the CT and with the slope changes being of the same sign. The empirical evidence indicates that these conditions are satisfied empirically using standard global surface temperature series and an aggregate measure of LLRF (carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide, and chlorofluorocarbons). We also discuss why the presence of broken trends can lead one to conclude in favor of GC when using standard methods even if the noise function in LLRF is negligible. In our study, we present a purely statistical observations‐based model‐free analysis that provides evidence about Granger causality (GC) from long‐lived radiative forcings (LLRFs) to the climate trend. We also discuss why the presence of broken trends can lead one to conclude in favor of GC when using standard methods even if the noise function in LLRF is negligible. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Species‐level forecasts of distributional potential and likely distributional shifts, in the face of changing climates, have become popular in the literature in the past 20 years. Many refinements have been made to the methodology over the years, and the result has been an approach that considers multiple sources of variation in geographic predictions, and how that variation translates into both specific predictions and uncertainty in those predictions. Although numerous previous reviews and overviews of this field have pointed out a series of assumptions and caveats associated with the methodology, three aspects of the methodology have important impacts but have not been treated previously in detail. Here, we assess those three aspects: (1) effects of niche truncation on model transfers to future climate conditions, (2) effects of model selection procedures on future‐climate transfers of ecological niche models, and (3) relative contributions of several factors (replicate samples of point data, general circulation models, representative concentration pathways, and alternative model parameterizations) to overall variance in model outcomes. Overall, the view is one of caution: although resulting predictions are fascinating and attractive, this paradigm has pitfalls that may bias and limit confidence in niche model outputs as regards the implications of climate change for species’ geographic distributions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The siting of protected areas to achieve management and conservation objectives draws heavily on biogeographic concepts of the spatial distribution and connectivity of species. However, the marine protected area (MPA) literature rarely acknowledges how biogeographic theories underpin MPA and MPA network design. We review which theories from biogeography have been incorporated into marine spatial planning and which relevant concepts have yet to be translated to inform the next generation of design principles. This biogeographic perspective will only become more relevant as climate change amplifies these spatial and temporal dynamics, and as species begin to shift in and out of existing MPAs. The scale of climate velocities predicted for the 21st century dwarfs all but the largest MPAs currently in place, raising the possibility that in coming decades many MPAs will no longer contain the species or assemblages they were established to protect. We present a number of design elements that could improve the success of MPAs and MPA networks in light of biogeographic processes and climate change. Biogeographically informed MPA networks of the future may resemble the habitat corridors currently being considered for many terrestrial regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The reemergence and growing burden of mosquito-borne virus infections have incited public fear and growing research efforts to understand the mechanisms of infection-associated health outcomes and to provide better approaches for mosquito vector control. While efforts to develop therapeutics, vaccines, and novel genetic mosquito-control technologies are underway, many important underlying ecological questions remain that could significantly enhance our understanding and ability to predict and prevent transmission. Here, we review the current knowledge about the transmission ecology of two recent arbovirus invaders, the chikungunya and Zika viruses. We introduce the viruses and mosquito vectors, highlighting viral biology, historical routes of transmission, and viral mechanisms facilitating rapid global invasion. In addition, we review factors contributing to vector global invasiveness and transmission efficiency. We conclude with a discussion of how human-induced biotic and abiotic environmental changes facilitate mosquito-borne virus transmission, emphasizing critical gaps in understanding. These knowledge gaps are tremendous; much of our data on basic mosquito ecology in the field predate 1960, and the mosquitoes themselves, as well as the world they live in, have substantially changed. A concerted investment in understanding the basic ecology of these vectors, which serve as the main drivers of pathogen transmission in both wildlife and human populations, is now more important than ever. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Predicting species responses to global warming is the holy grail of climate change science. As temperature directly affects physiological rates, it is clear that a mechanistic understanding of species vulnerability should be grounded in organismal physiology. Here, we review what respiratory physiology can offer the field of thermal ecology, showcasing different perspectives on how respiratory physiology can help explain thermal niches. In water, maintaining adequate oxygen delivery to fuel the higher metabolic rates under warming conditions can become the weakest link, setting thermal tolerance limits. This has repercussions for growth and scaling of metabolic rate. On land, water loss is more likely to become problematic as long as O2 delivery and pH balance can be maintained, potentially constraining species in their normal activity. Therefore, high temperatures need not be lethal, but can still affect the energy intake of an animal, with concomitant consequences for long-term fitness. While respiratory challenges and adaptive responses are diverse, there are clear recurring elements such as oxygen uptake, CO2 excretion, and water homeostasis. We show that respiratory physiology has much to offer the field of thermal ecology and call for an integrative, multivariate view incorporating respiratory challenges, thermal responses, and energetic consequences. Fruitful areas for future research are highlighted. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The impact of climate change on biodiversity is now evident, with the direct impacts of changing temperature and rainfall patterns and increases in the magnitude and frequency of extreme events on species distribution, populations, and overall ecosystem function being increasingly publicized. Changes in the climate system are also affecting human communities, and a range of human responses across terrestrial and marine realms have been witnessed, including altered agricultural activities, shifting fishing efforts, and human migration. Failing to account for the human responses to climate change is likely to compromise climate-smart conservation efforts. Here, we use a well-established conservation planning framework to show how integrating human responses to climate change into both species- and site-based vulnerability assessments and adaptation plans is possible. By explicitly taking into account human responses, conservation practitioners will improve their evaluation of species and ecosystem vulnerability, and will be better able to deliver win-wins for human- and biodiversity-focused climate adaptation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ruminant livestock provides meat and dairy products that sustain health and livelihood for much of the world's population. Grazing lands that support ruminant livestock provide numerous ecosystem services, including provision of food, water, and genetic resources; climate and water regulation; support of soil formation; nutrient cycling; and cultural services. In the U.S. southern Great Plains, beef production on pastures, rangelands, and hay is a major economic activity. The region's climate is characterized by extremes of heat and cold and extremes of drought and flooding. Grazing lands occupy a large portion of the region's land, significantly affecting carbon, nitrogen, and water budgets. To understand vulnerabilities and enhance resilience of beef production, a multi-institutional Coordinated Agricultural Project (CAP), the 'grazing CAP,' was established. Integrative research and extension spanning biophysical, socioeconomic, and agricultural disciplines address management effects on productivity and environmental footprints of production systems. Knowledge and tools being developed will allow farmers and ranchers to evaluate risks and increase resilience to dynamic conditions. The knowledge and tools developed will also have relevance to grazing lands in semiarid and subhumid regions of the world. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is expected to affect biodiversity elements in the Catskill High Peaks subecoregion of New York State with effects that are difficult to predict. The present communication details the species and communities of greatest conservation concern in this portion of the state and makes recommendations for monitoring the most pressing climate change-biodiversity vulnerabilities. Specifically, we present sites for monitoring representative old-growth and successional stands of red spruce/balsam fir and northern hardwood matrix forests, cliff communities, ice cave talus communities, and both minerotrophic inland poor fen and ombrotrophic perched peatlands. The proposed monitoring protocols vary among the various sites, but all are quantitative and are designed to document patterns of change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent flooding events in the Catskills such as Tropical Storm Irene have raised concerns regarding changes in the frequency of heavy rainfall. The extreme precipitation records of four long-term observing sites are analyzed based on two measures of heavy rainfall. The number of events that produce ≥50.8 mm of precipitation per year show little evidence of an increasing trend. Rather, the climatology of Catskills stations is marked by considerable year-to-year and decade-to-decade variability. Because of this variability, a different measure of extreme precipitation, the 100-year storm, attained its highest value in the early 1960s. This was an artifact of the reliance of the analysis procedure on a relatively short record that coincided with high precipitation. Current engineering design for infrastructure affected by extreme rainfall is based on this metric. After 1960, the 100-year storm declined, until rising again after 1990. This rise is consistent with a regional trend toward higher precipitation extremes. Climate-model projections show this trend continuing at a rate of 2-3% per decade through 2069. The serendipitously high 100-year-storm value computed in 1960 may provide some buffer to the expected effects of this change in extreme rainfall in the Catskills. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To predict community-level responses to climate change, we must understand how variation in environmental conditions drives changes in an organism's ability to acquire resources and translate those resources into growth, reproduction, and survival. This challenge can be approached mechanistically by establishing linkages from biophysics to community ecology. For example, body temperature can be predicted from environmental conditions and species-specific morphological and behavioral traits. Variation in body temperature within and among species dictates physiological performance, rates of resource acquisition, and growth. These ecological characteristics, along with population size, define the strength with which species interact. Finally, the direct (individual level) and indirect (community level) effects of temperature jointly determine community structure. This mechanistic framework can complement correlational approaches to better predict ecological responses to climate change and identify which characteristics of a species or community act as leverage points for change. Research priorities for further development of the mechanistic approach include documentation and prediction of relevant spatial and temporal variation in body temperature and the relationships between body temperature, individual performance, and interspecific interactions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The increasingly appreciated link between climate change and species interactions has the potential to help us understand and predict how organisms respond to a changing environment. As this connection grows, it becomes even more important to appreciate the mechanisms that create and control the combined effect of these factors. However, we believe one such important set of mechanisms comes from species' behavior and the subsequent trait-mediated interactions, as opposed to the more often studied density-mediated effects. Behavioral mechanisms are already well appreciated for mitigating the separate effects of the environment and species interactions. Thus, they could be at the forefront for understanding the combined effects. In this review, we (1) show some of the known behaviors that influence the individual and combined effects of climate change and species interactions; (2) conceptualize general ways behavior may mediate these combined effects; and (3) illustrate the potential importance of including behavior in our current tools for predicting climate change effects. In doing so, we hope to promote more research on behavior and other mechanistic factors that may increase our ability to accurately predict climate change effects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the aftermaths of Hurricanes Irene, in 2011, and Sandy, in 2012, New York City has come to recognize the critical need to better prepare for future storm surges and to anticipate future trends, such as climate change and socio-economic developments. The research presented in this report assesses the costs of six different flood management strategies to anticipate long-term challenges the City will face. The proposed strategies vary from increasing resilience by upgrading building codes and introducing small scale protection measures, to creating green infrastructure as buffer zones and large protective engineering works such as storm surge barriers. The initial investment costs of alternative strategies vary between $11.6 and $23.8 bn, maximally. We show that a hybrid solution, combining protection of critical infrastructure and resilience measures that can be upgraded over time, is less expensive. However, with increasing risk in the future, storm surge barriers may become cost-effective, as they can provide protection to the largest areas in both New York and New Jersey. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Conservation translocation of species varies from restoring historic populations to managing the relocation of imperiled species to new locations. We review the literature in three areas-translocation, managed relocation, and conservation decision making-to inform conservation translocation under changing climates. First, climate change increases the potential for conflict over both the efficacy and the acceptability of conservation translocation. The emerging literature on managed relocation highlights this discourse. Second, conservation translocation works in concert with other strategies. The emerging literature in structured decision making provides a framework for prioritizing conservation actions-considering many possible alternatives that are evaluated based on expected benefit, risk, and social-political feasibility. Finally, the translocation literature has historically been primarily concerned with risks associated with the target species. In contrast, the managed relocation literature raises concerns about the ecological risk to the recipient ecosystem. Engaging in a structured decision process that explicitly focuses on stakeholder engagement, problem definition and specification of goals from the outset will allow creative solutions to be developed and evaluated based on their expected effectiveness. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]