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BACKGROUND We proposed that a test for sensitivity to the adjuvant endocrine therapy component of treatment for patients with stage II-III breast cancer (SET2,3) should measure transcription related to estrogen and progesterone receptors (SETER/PR index) adjusted for a baseline prognostic index (BPI) combining clinical tumor and nodal stage with molecular subtype by RNA4 (ESR1, PGR, ERBB2, and AURKA). PATIENTS AND METHODS Patients with clinically high-risk, hormone receptor-positive (HR+), human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2)-negative (HR+/HER2-) breast cancer received neoadjuvant taxane-anthracycline chemotherapy, surgery with measurement of residual cancer burden (RCB), and then adjuvant endocrine therapy. SET2,3 was measured from pre-treatment tumor biopsies, evaluated first in an MD Anderson Cancer Center (MDACC) cohort (n = 307, 11 years' follow-up, U133A microarrays), cut point was determined, and then independent, blinded evaluation was carried out in the I-SPY2 trial (n = 268, high-risk MammaPrint result, 3.8 years' follow-up, Agilent-44K microarrays, NCI Clinical Trials ID: NCT01042379). Primary outcome measure was distant relapse-free survival. Multivariate Cox regression models tested prognostic independence of SET2,3 relative to RCB and other molecular prognostic signatures, and whether other prognostic signatures could substitute for SETER/PR or RNA4 components of SET2,3. RESULTS SET2,3 added independent prognostic information to RCB in the MDACC cohort: SET2,3 [hazard ratio (HR) 0.23, P = 0.004] and RCB (HR 1.77, P < 0.001); and the I-SPY2 trial: SET2,3 (HR 0.27, P = 0.031) and RCB (HR 1.68, P = 0.008). SET2,3 provided similar prognostic information irrespective of whether RCB-II or RCB-III after chemotherapy, and in both luminal subtypes. Conversely, RCB was most strongly prognostic in cancers with low SET2,3 status (MDACC P < 0.001, I-SPY2 P < 0.001). Other molecular signatures were not independently prognostic; they could effectively substitute for RNA4 subtype within the BPI component of SET2,3, but they could not effectively substitute for SETER/PR index. CONCLUSIONS SET2,3 added independent prognostic information to chemotherapy response (RCB) and baseline prognostic score or subtype. Approximately 40% of patients with clinically high-risk HR+/HER2- disease had high SET2,3 and could be considered for clinical trials of neoadjuvant endocrine-based treatment.

Author(s): Magbanua, MJM; Swigart, LB; Wu, H-T; Hirst, GL; Yau, C; Wolf, DM; Tin, A; Salari, R; Shchegrova, S; Pawar, H; Delson, AL; DeMichele, A; Liu, MC; Chien, AJ; Tripathy, D; Asare, S; Lin, C-HJ; Billings, P; Aleshin, A; Sethi, H; Louie, M; Zimmermann, B; Esserman, LJ; van 't Veer, LJ | Abstract: BackgroundPathologic complete response (pCR) to neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC) is strongly associated with favorable outcome. We examined the utility of serial circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) testing for predicting pCR and risk of metastatic recurrence.Patients and methodsCell-free DNA (cfDNA) was isolated from 291 plasma samples of 84 high-risk early breast cancer patients treated in the neoadjuvant I-SPY 2 TRIAL with standard NAC alone or combined with MK-2206 (AKT inhibitor) treatment. Blood was collected at pretreatment (T0), 3 weeks after initiation of paclitaxel (T1), between paclitaxel and anthracycline regimens (T2), or prior to surgery (T3). A personalized ctDNA test was designed to detect up to 16 patient-specific mutations (from whole-exome sequencing of pretreatment tumor) in cfDNA by ultra-deep sequencing. The median follow-up time for survival analysis was 4.8 years.ResultsAt T0, 61 of 84 (73%) patients were ctDNA positive, which decreased over time (T1: 35%; T2: 14%; and T3: 9%). Patients who remained ctDNA positive at T1 were significantly more likely to have residual disease after NAC (83% non-pCR) compared with those who cleared ctDNA (52% non-pCR; odds ratio 4.33, Pn= 0.012). After NAC, all patients who achieved pCR were ctDNA negative (nn= 17, 100%). For those who did not achieve pCR (nn= 43), ctDNA-positive patients (14%) had a significantly increased risk of metastatic recurrence [hazard ratio (HR) 10.4; 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.3-46.6]; interestingly, patients who did not achieve pCR but were ctDNA negative (86%) had excellent outcome, similar to those who achieved pCR (HR 1.4; 95% CI 0.15-13.5).ConclusionsLack of ctDNA clearance was a significant predictor of poor response and metastatic recurrence, while clearance was associated with improved survival even in patients who did not achieve pCR. Personalized monitoring of ctDNA during NAC of high-risk early breast cancer may aid in real-time assessment of treatment response and help fine-tune pCR as a surrogate endpoint of survival.