1. IZRADA I ANALIZA SCENARIJA U PROSTORNOM PLANIRANJU: SCENARIJI PROSTORNOG RAZVOJA DALMACIJE DO 2031. GODINE.
- Author
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RADELJAK KAUFMANN, Petra
- Abstract
In this paper a procedure of scenario making and analysis in spatial research and planning is demonstrated. Dalmatia was used as a case study, given the recent trends of spatial development and differentiation in the region, and the need to study and plan for possible future changes in spatial development. Several basic methodological steps connect different approaches to scenario making in the spatial planning context. They include defining the problems and goals of scenario construction, the spatial and temporal frames of the system in question, recognising and qualitatively and/or quantitatively describing important factors that directly and indirectly influence development, evaluating factors according to degree of importance and uncertainty, and describing the possible development of key factors within consistent and plausible scenarios. Finally, the implications stemming from different scenarios are evaluated. Different methods were integrated in developing scenarios for Dalmatia: literature review, selection of statistical indicators of development processes, factor and cluster analysis, and two rounds of Delphi method. This process enabled encompassing various aspects of spatial development, as well as an interdisciplinary exploration of possible future developments. Eventually three scenarios for Dalmatia until 2031 were developed: „Monoculture of tourism“, „Sustainable tourism“, and „Integral development“. They are explorative spatial development scenarios, with the goal of exploring possible future developments from different perspectives. The implications stemming from these development scenarios are relevant not only for spatial planning, but also for the wider development context. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] more...
- Published
- 2017
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