Search

This paper aims to simulate total factor productivity, following the original proposal made by Cobb and Douglas (1928). Estimates with annual frequency are computed for the United States during two periods, i.e. 1899-1992 and 1933-2019. In the case of Mexico, estimates are computed for the 1993-2015 period. An income distribution in favor of capital in recent decades is found both for the United States and México. Capital share has grown in the United States from 25% in 1899-1922 to 89% in 1993-2019, while for Mexico it has been 82% for 1993-2015. Functional income distribution requires close monitoring. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyzes the potential impact of used vehicle trade liberalization on Mexico's new vehicle market with the full implementation of the NAFTA agreement. Although the legal environment has been unfavorable toward the importation of used vehicles into Mexico, used vehicles primarily from the U.S. have entered the market as gray or illegal goods. In recent years Mexico may have already become a dumping ground for U.S. used vehicles. Beginning in 2009, Mexico is set to progressively open the market for used vehicle imports according to NAFTA regulations, fully liberalizing it by 2019. To quantify the potential impact of legal used vehicle imports, this paper develops a new analytical model. Given the lack of historical data, the methodology combines econometric estimation with a comparative analysis using the Polish used vehicle case as foundation. Through various scenarios, our research suggests that the medium-to-long term impact on new vehicle sales could be severe. The auto industry could reach a low 0.6 million units by the time the market is fully liberalized. And even under the most optimistic scenario, the industry only reaches 1.3 million units by 2019, not much higher than the 1.15 million units in 2007. While some academic literature indicates that there are social and economic benefits of free trade in used vehicles, at least in the case of a lower income market opening itself up to a much larger and higher income mature market, the net impact seems to be negative. Industry generated revenue losses for both automakers and the Mexican government could reach as high as $100 billion in the 2009-2019 period. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyzes the long term relationship between the Mexican and USA economies from 1950 to 2008. It initially analyzes the period 1988-2008, that's to say, the relation during this period is that the Mexican GDP grew in the long term by 0.94% for each percentage point increase in the USA's GDP, and decreased by 0.17% for each percentage point depreciation in the real exchange rate. Once this relation is established, the work then questions if the Mexican economic structure persisted during 1950-2008. This result is interesting because it provides a starting point for a new research agenda that revises which conditions permitted the fast growth of Mexico's economy during 1950-1982, which others led to its subsecuent stagnation. This is not only of interest to historians, and also useful for reconsidering Mexico's present growth strategy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]