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Victims of infection are expected to suffer increasingly as parasite population growth increases. Yet, under some conditions, faster-growing parasites do not appear to cause more damage, and infections can be quite tolerable. We studied these conditions by assessing how the relationship between parasite population growth and host health is sensitive to environmental variation. In experimental infections of the crustacean Daphnia magna and its bacterial parasite Pasteuria ramosa, we show how easily an interaction can shift from a severe interaction, that is, when host fitness declines substantially with each unit of parasite growth, to a tolerable relationship by changing only simple environmental variables: temperature and food availability. We explored the evolutionary and epidemiological implications of such a shift by modeling pathogen evolution and disease spread under different levels of infection severity and found that environmental shifts that promote tolerance ultimately result in populations harboring more parasitized individuals. We also find that the opportunity for selection, as indicated by the variance around traits, varied considerably with the environmental treatment. Thus, our results suggest two mechanisms that could underlie coevolutionary hotspots and coldspots: spatial variation in tolerance and spatial variation in the opportunity for selection. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Best linear unbiased prediction (BLUP) is a method for obtaining point estimates of a random effect in a mixed effect model. Over the past decade it has been used extensively in ecology and evolutionary biology to predict individual breeding values and reaction norms. These predictions have been used to infer natural selection, evolutionary change, spatial-genetic patterns, individual reaction norms, and frailties. In this article we show analytically and through simulation and example why BLUP often gives anticonservative and biased estimates of evolutionary and ecological parameters. Although some concerns with BLUP methodology have been voiced before, the scale and breadth of the problems have probably not been widely appreciated. Bias arises because BLUPs are often used to estimate effects that are not explicitly accounted for in the model used to make the predictions. In these cases, predicted breeding values will often say more about phenotypic patterns than the genetic patterns of interest. An additional problem is that BLUPs are point estimates of quantities that are usually known with little certainty. Failure to account for this uncertainty in subsequent tests can lead to both bias and extreme anticonservatism.We demonstrate that restricted maximum likelihood and Bayesian solutions exist for these problems and show how unbiased and powerful tests can be derived that adequately quantify uncertainty. Of particular utility is a new test for detecting evolutionary change that not only accounts for prediction error in breeding values but also accounts for drift. To illustrate the problem, we apply these tests to long-term data on the Soay sheep (Ovis aries) and the great tit (Parus major) and show that previously reported temporal trends in breeding values are not supported. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Senescence is the decline in survival and reproduction as an organism ages and is known to occur in collared flycatchers Ficedula albicollis. We consider annual fitness (the estimated genetic contribution that an individual makes to next year's gene pool) as a measure of age-specific fitness. We apply a restricted maximum likelihood linear mixed-model approach on 25 years of data on 3,844 male and 4,992 female collared flycatchers. Annual fitness had a significant additive genetic component (h2 of about 4%). Annual fitness declined at later ages in both sexes. Using a random regression animal model, we show that the observed age-related phenotypic changes in annual fitness were not present on the additive genetic level, contrary to predictions of genetic hypotheses of senescence. Our study suggests that patterns of aging in the wild need to be interpreted with caution in terms of underlying genetics because they may be largely determined by environmental processes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Evolution of size and growth depends on heritable variation arising from additive and maternal genetic effects. Levels of heritable (and nonheritable) variation might change over ontogeny, increasing through "variance compounding" or decreasing through "compensatory growth." We test for these processes using a meta-analysis of age-specific weight traits in domestic ungulates. Generally, mean standardized variance components decrease with age, consistent with compensatory growth. Phenotypic convergence among adult sheep occurs through decreasing environmental and maternal genetic variation. Maternal variation similarly declines in cattle. Maternal genetic effects are thus reduced with age (both in absolute and relative terms). Significant trends in heritability (decreasing in cattle, increasing in sheep) result from declining maternal and environmental components rather than from changing additive variation. There was no evidence for increasing standardized variance components. Any compounding must therefore be masked by more important compensatory processes. While extrapolation of these patterns to processes in natural population is difficult, our results highlight the inadequacy of assuming constancy in genetic parameters over ontogeny. Negative covariance between direct and maternal genetic effects was common. Negative correlations with additive and maternal genetic variances indicate that antagonistic pleiotropy (between additive and maternal genetic effects) may maintain genetic variance and limit responses to selection. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Body size is an important determinant of fitness in many organisms. While size will typically change over the lifetime of an individual, heritable components of phenotypic variance may also show ontogenetic variation. We estimated genetic (additive and maternal) and environmental covariance structures for a size trait (June weight) measured over the first 5 years of life in a natural population of bighorn sheep Ovis canadensis. We also assessed the utility of random regression models for estimating these structures. Additive genetic variance was found for June weight, with heritability increasing over ontogeny because of declining environmental variance. This pattern, mirrored at the phenotypic level, likely reflects viability selection acting on early size traits. Maternal genetic effects were significant at ages 0 and 1, having important evolutionary implications for early weight, but declined with age being negligible by age 2. Strong positive genetic correlations between age-specific traits suggest that selection on June weight at any age will likely induce positively correlated responses across ontogeny. Random regression modeling yielded similar results to traditional methods. However, by facilitating more efficient data use where phenotypic sampling is incomplete, random regression should allow better estimation of genetic (co)variances for size and growth traits in natural populations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Trade-offs among life-history traits are central to evolutionary theory. In quantitative genetic terms, trade-offs may be manifested as negative genetic covariances relative to the direction of selection on phenotypic traits. Although the expression and selection of ecologically important phenotypic variation are fundamentally multivariate phenomena, the in situ quantification of genetic covariances is challenging. Even for life-history traits, where well-developed theory exists with which to relate phenotypic variation to fitness variation, little evidence exists from in situ studies that negative genetic covariances are an important aspect of the genetic architecture of life-history traits. In fact, the majority of reported estimates of genetic covariances among life-history traits are positive. Here we apply theory of the genetics and selection of life histories in organisms with complex life cycles to provide a framework for quantifying the contribution of multivariate genetically based relationships among traits to evolutionary constraint. We use a Bayesian framework to link pedigree-based inference of the genetic basis of variation in life-history traits to evolutionary demography theory regarding how life histories are selected. Our results suggest that genetic covariances may be acting to constrain the evolution of female life-history traits in a wild population of red deer Cervus elaphus: genetic covariances are estimated to reduce the rate of adaptation by about 40%, relative to predicted evolutionary change in the absence of genetic covariances. Furthermore, multivariate phenotypic (rather than genetic) relationships among female life-history traits do not reveal this constraint. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]