1. Age-Period-Cohort Analyses of Tuberculosis Incidence Rates by Nativity, United States, 1996-2016.
- Author
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Iqbal, Shareen A., Winston, Carla A., Bardenheier, Barbara H., Armstrong, Lori R., and Navin, Thomas R.
- Subjects
DISEASE incidence ,TUBERCULOSIS diagnosis ,TUBERCULOSIS epidemiology ,TUBERCULOSIS ,AGE distribution ,BLACK people ,CONFIDENCE intervals ,ETHNIC groups ,HISPANIC Americans ,PUBLIC health surveillance ,RACE - Abstract
Objectives. To assess changes in US tuberculosis (TB) incidence rates by age, period, and cohort effects, stratified according to race/ethnicity and nativity. Methods. We used US National Tuberculosis Surveillance System data for 1996 to 2016 to estimate trends through age-period-cohort models. Results. Controlling for cohort and period effects indicated that the highest rates of TB incidence occurred among those 0 to 5 and 20 to 30 years of age. The incidence decreased by age for successive birth cohorts. There were greater estimated annual percentage decreases among US-born individuals (-7.3%; 95% confidence interval [CI] = -7.5, -7.1) than among non-US-born individuals (-4.3%; 95% CI = -4.5, -4.1). US-born individuals older than 25 years exhibited the largest decreases, a pattern that was not reflected among non-US-born adults. In the case of race/ethnicity, the greatest decreases by nativity were among US-born Blacks (-9.3%; 95% CI = -9.6, -9.1) and non-US-born Hispanics (-5.7%; 95% CI = -6.0, -5.5). Conclusions. TB has been decreasing among all ages, races and ethnicities, and consecutive cohorts, although these decreases are less pronounced among non-US-born individuals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2018
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