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The true prevalence and penetrance of monogenic disease variants are often not known because of clinical-referral ascertainment bias. We comprehensively assess the penetrance and prevalence of pathogenic variants in HNF1A, HNF4A, and GCK that account for >80% of monogenic diabetes. We analyzed clinical and genetic data from 1,742 clinically referred probands, 2,194 family members, clinically unselected individuals from a US health system-based cohort (n = 132,194), and a UK population-based cohort (n = 198,748). We show that one in 1,500 individuals harbor a pathogenic variant in one of these genes. The penetrance of diabetes for HNF1A and HNF4A pathogenic variants was substantially lower in the clinically unselected individuals compared to clinically referred probands and was dependent on the setting (32% in the population, 49% in the health system cohort, 86% in a family member, and 98% in probands for HNF1A). The relative risk of diabetes was similar across the clinically unselected cohorts highlighting the role of environment/other genetic factors. Surprisingly, the penetrance of pathogenic GCK variants was similar across all cohorts (89%-97%). We highlight that pathogenic variants in HNF1A, HNF4A, and GCK are not ultra-rare in the population. For HNF1A and HNF4A, we need to tailor genetic interpretation and counseling based on the setting in which a pathogenic monogenic variant was identified. GCK is an exception with near-complete penetrance in all settings. This along with the clinical implication of diagnosis makes it an excellent candidate for the American College of Medical Genetics secondary gene list., Competing Interests: Declaration of interests The authors declare no competing interests., (Copyright © 2022 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Hypoxia-inducible factor prolyl hydroxylase inhibitors (HIF-PHIs) are currently under clinical development for treating anemia in chronic kidney disease (CKD), but it is important to monitor their cardiovascular safety. Genetic variants can be used as predictors to help inform the potential risk of adverse effects associated with drug treatments. We therefore aimed to use human genetics to help assess the risk of adverse cardiovascular events associated with therapeutically altered EPO levels to help inform clinical trials studying the safety of HIF-PHIs. By performing a genome-wide association meta-analysis of EPO (n = 6,127), we identified a cis-EPO variant (rs1617640) lying in the EPO promoter region. We validated this variant as most likely causal in controlling EPO levels by using genetic and functional approaches, including single-base gene editing. Using this variant as a partial predictor for therapeutic modulation of EPO and large genome-wide association data in Mendelian randomization tests, we found no evidence (at p < 0.05) that genetically predicted long-term rises in endogenous EPO, equivalent to a 2.2-unit increase, increased risk of coronary artery disease (CAD, OR [95% CI] = 1.01 [0.93, 1.07]), myocardial infarction (MI, OR [95% CI] = 0.99 [0.87, 1.15]), or stroke (OR [95% CI] = 0.97 [0.87, 1.07]). We could exclude increased odds of 1.15 for cardiovascular disease for a 2.2-unit EPO increase. A combination of genetic and functional studies provides a powerful approach to investigate the potential therapeutic profile of EPO-increasing therapies for treating anemia in CKD., Competing Interests: Declaration of interests C.E.H. was awarded an MRC iCASE studentship (MR/P016065/1), which was cofunded by GSK and the MRC for the duration of the study. GSK are undertaking clinical development into a novel PHI and have given permission to publish this work alongside an internal review of the manuscript. A.Y.C. is an employee of GSK, is a shareholder of GSK stock, and was involved in the study design, interpretation of the data, and writing of the paper. V.V.P. was an employee of GSK at the time of the study conception and design. He was involved in interpreting the data and writing of the paper and is a shareholder of GSK and Roche Holding AG stocks. D.M.W. was an employee of GSK at the time of the study conception and design and was involved in the interpretation of the data and writing of the paper. H.L.L. and M.A.N. received support from a consulting contract between Data Tecnica International and the National Institute on Aging (NIA), National Institutes of Health (NIH). They were involved in data analysis and review of the manuscript. N.V. is a full-time employee of Regeneron Pharmaceutical Inc. and receives stock options and restricted stock units as compensation. D.D.J. received support from the Center of Human Health and the Environment P30ESO25128 grant. F.I. is an AbbVie employee and receives stocks from AbbVie, which has not been involved in this work at any level., (Copyright © 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Many rare monogenic diseases are known to be caused by deleterious variants in thousands of genes, however the same variants can also be found in people without the associated clinical phenotypes. The penetrance of these monogenic variants is generally unknown in the wider population, as they are typically identified in small clinical cohorts of affected individuals and families with highly penetrant variants. Here, we investigated the phenotypic effect of rare, potentially deleterious variants in genes and loci where similar variants are known to cause monogenic developmental disorders (DDs) in a large population cohort. We used UK Biobank to investigate phenotypes associated with rare protein-truncating and missense variants in 599 monoallelic DDG2P genes by using whole-exome-sequencing data from ∼200,000 individuals and rare copy-number variants overlapping known DD loci by using SNP-array data from ∼500,000 individuals. We found that individuals with these likely deleterious variants had a mild DD-related phenotype, including lower fluid intelligence, slower reaction times, lower numeric memory scores, and longer pairs matching times compared to the rest of the UK Biobank cohort. They were also shorter, had a higher BMI, and had significant socioeconomic disadvantages: they were less likely to be employed or be able to work and had a lower income and higher deprivation index. Our findings suggest that many genes routinely tested within pediatric genetics have deleterious variants with intermediate penetrance that may cause lifelong sub-clinical phenotypes in the general adult population., Competing Interests: Declaration of interests The authors declare no competing interests., (Copyright © 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Large copy-number variants (CNVs) are strongly associated with both developmental delay and cancer, but the type of disease depends strongly on when and where the mutation occurred, i.e., germline versus somatic. We used microarray data from UK Biobank to investigate the prevalence and penetrance of large autosomal CNVs and chromosomal aneuploidies using a standard CNV detection algorithm not designed for detecting mosaic variants. We found 160 individuals that carry >10 Mb copy number changes, including 56 with whole chromosome aneuploidies. Nineteen (12%) individuals had a diagnosis of Down syndrome or other developmental disorder, while 84 (52.5%) individuals had a diagnosis of hematological malignancies or chronic myeloproliferative disorders. Notably, there was no evidence of mosaicism in the blood for many of these large CNVs, so they could easily be mistaken for germline alleles even when caused by somatic mutations. We therefore suggest that somatic mutations associated with blood cancers may result in false estimates of rare variant penetrance from population biobanks., (Copyright © 2020 American Society of Human Genetics. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

More than 100,000 genetic variants are classified as disease causing in public databases. However, the true penetrance of many of these rare alleles is uncertain and might be over-estimated by clinical ascertainment. Here, we use data from 379,768 UK Biobank (UKB) participants of European ancestry to assess the pathogenicity and penetrance of putatively clinically important rare variants. Although rare variants are harder to genotype accurately than common variants, we were able to classify as high quality 1,244 of 4,585 (27%) putatively clinically relevant rare (MAF < 1%) variants genotyped on the UKB microarray. We defined as "clinically relevant" variants that were classified as either pathogenic or likely pathogenic in ClinVar or are in genes known to cause two specific monogenic diseases: maturity-onset diabetes of the young (MODY) and severe developmental disorders (DDs). We assessed the penetrance and pathogenicity of these high-quality variants by testing their association with 401 clinically relevant traits. 27 of the variants were associated with a UKB trait, and we were able to refine the penetrance estimate for some of the variants. For example, the HNF4A c.340C>T (p.Arg114Trp) (GenBank: NM&#95;175914.4) variant associated with diabetes is <10% penetrant by the time an individual is 40 years old. We also observed associations with relevant traits for heterozygous carriers of some rare recessive conditions, e.g., heterozygous carriers of the ERCC4 c.2395C>T (p.Arg799Trp) variant that causes Xeroderma pigmentosum were more susceptible to sunburn. Finally, we refute the previous disease association of RNF135 in developmental disorders. In conclusion, this study shows that very large population-based studies will help refine our understanding of the pathogenicity of rare genetic variants., (Copyright © 2019 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Erectile dysfunction (ED) is a common condition affecting more than 20% of men over 60 years, yet little is known about its genetic architecture. We performed a genome-wide association study of ED in 6,175 case subjects among 223,805 European men and identified one locus at 6q16.3 (lead variant rs57989773, OR 1.20 per C-allele; p = 5.71 × 10 -14 ), located between MCHR2 and SIM1. In silico analysis suggests SIM1 to confer ED risk through hypothalamic dysregulation. Mendelian randomization provides evidence that genetic risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus is a cause of ED (OR 1.11 per 1-log unit higher risk of type 2 diabetes). These findings provide insights into the biological underpinnings and the causes of ED and may help prioritize the development of future therapies for this common disorder., (Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)