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Variability in quantitative traits has clinical, ecological, and evolutionary significance. Most genetic variants identified for complex quantitative traits have only a detectable effect on the mean of trait. We have developed the mean-variance test (MVtest) to simultaneously model the mean and log-variance of a quantitative trait as functions of genotypes and covariates by using estimating equations. The advantages of MVtest include the facts that it can detect effect modification, that multiple testing can follow conventional thresholds, that it is robust to non-normal outcomes, and that association statistics can be meta-analyzed. In simulations, we show control of type I error of MVtest over several alternatives. We identified 51 and 37 previously unreported associations for effects on blood-pressure variance and mean, respectively, in the UK Biobank. Transcriptome-wide association studies revealed 633 significant unique gene associations with blood-pressure mean variance. MVtest is broadly applicable to studies of complex quantitative traits and provides an important opportunity to detect novel loci. We developed MVtest to simultaneously model the mean and log variance of quantitative traits as functions of genotypes and covariates by using estimating equations. MVtest can detect effect modification, and association statistics can be meta-analyzed. MVtest is applicable to studies of complex quantitative traits and provides an opportunity to detect novel vQTLs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We examined more than 97,000 families from four neurodevelopmental disease cohorts and the UK Biobank to identify phenotypic and genetic patterns in parents contributing to neurodevelopmental disease risk in children. We identified within- and cross-disorder correlations between six phenotypes in parents and children, such as obsessive-compulsive disorder (R = 0.32–0.38, p < 10−126). We also found that measures of sub-clinical autism features in parents are associated with several autism severity measures in children, including biparental mean Social Responsiveness Scale scores and proband Repetitive Behaviors Scale scores (regression coefficient = 0.14, p = 3.38 × 10−4). We further describe patterns of phenotypic similarity between spouses, where spouses show correlations for six neurological and psychiatric phenotypes, including a within-disorder correlation for depression (R = 0.24–0.68, p < 0.001) and a cross-disorder correlation between anxiety and bipolar disorder (R = 0.09–0.22, p < 10−92). Using a simulated population, we also found that assortative mating can lead to increases in disease liability over generations and the appearance of "genetic anticipation" in families carrying rare variants. We identified several families in a neurodevelopmental disease cohort where the proband inherited multiple rare variants in disease-associated genes from each of their affected parents. We further identified parental relatedness as a risk factor for neurodevelopmental disorders through its inverse relationship with variant pathogenicity and propose that parental relatedness modulates disease risk by increasing genome-wide homozygosity in children (R = 0.05–0.26, p < 0.05). Our results highlight the utility of assessing parent phenotypes and genotypes toward predicting features in children who carry rare variably expressive variants and implicate assortative mating as a risk factor for increased disease severity in these families. [Display omitted] Many rare genetic variants are variably expressive, conferring risk for a range of clinical features with incomplete penetrance. We implicate assortative mating as a risk factor for disease in families carrying these variants by increasing genetic disease liability over generations, leading to the "genetic anticipation" observed in these families. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

LDpred2 is a widely used Bayesian method for building polygenic scores (PGSs). LDpred2-auto can infer the two parameters from the LDpred model, the SNP heritability h 2 and polygenicity p , so that it does not require an additional validation dataset to choose best-performing parameters. The main aim of this paper is to properly validate the use of LDpred2-auto for inferring multiple genetic parameters. Here, we present a new version of LDpred2-auto that adds an optional third parameter α to its model, for modeling negative selection. We then validate the inference of these three parameters (or two, when using the previous model). We also show that LDpred2-auto provides per-variant probabilities of being causal that are well calibrated and can therefore be used for fine-mapping purposes. We also introduce a formula to infer the out-of-sample predictive performance r 2 of the resulting PGS directly from the Gibbs sampler of LDpred2-auto. Finally, we extend the set of HapMap3 variants recommended to use with LDpred2 with 37% more variants to improve the coverage of this set, and we show that this new set of variants captures 12% more heritability and provides 6% more predictive performance, on average, in UK Biobank analyses. This study extends the utility of LDpred2-auto, a widely used method for deriving predictive polygenic scores. It validates the use of the latest version of LDpred2-auto for inferring key genetic parameters that inform us about the genetic architecture of traits, for identifying causal genetic variants, and for estimating predictive performance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Genome-wide association studies (GWASs) across thousands of traits have revealed the pervasive pleiotropy of trait-associated genetic variants. While methods have been proposed to characterize pleiotropic components across groups of phenotypes, scaling these approaches to ultra-large-scale biobanks has been challenging. Here, we propose FactorGo, a scalable variational factor analysis model to identify and characterize pleiotropic components using biobank GWAS summary data. In extensive simulations, we observe that FactorGo outperforms the state-of-the-art (model-free) approach tSVD in capturing latent pleiotropic factors across phenotypes while maintaining a similar computational cost. We apply FactorGo to estimate 100 latent pleiotropic factors from GWAS summary data of 2,483 phenotypes measured in European-ancestry Pan-UK BioBank individuals (N = 420,531). Next, we find that factors from FactorGo are more enriched with relevant tissue-specific annotations than those identified by tSVD (p = 2.58E−10) and validate our approach by recapitulating brain-specific enrichment for BMI and the height-related connection between reproductive system and muscular-skeletal growth. Finally, our analyses suggest shared etiologies between rheumatoid arthritis and periodontal condition in addition to alkaline phosphatase as a candidate prognostic biomarker for prostate cancer. Overall, FactorGo improves our biological understanding of shared etiologies across thousands of GWASs. By leveraging numerous trait-associated genetic variants identified in genome-wide association studies (GWASs) across thousands of traits, Zhang et al. propose FactorGo, a scalable factor analysis model, to identify and characterize pleiotropic components using biobank GWAS summary data. The authors demonstrate that FactorGo improves our biological understanding of shared etiologies across thousands of GWASs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding the penetrance of pathogenic variants identified as secondary findings (SFs) is of paramount importance with the growing availability of genetic testing. We estimated penetrance through large-scale analyses of individuals referred for diagnostic sequencing for hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM; 10,400 affected individuals, 1,332 variants) and dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM; 2,564 affected individuals, 663 variants), using a cross-sectional approach comparing allele frequencies against reference populations (293,226 participants from UK Biobank and gnomAD). We generated updated prevalence estimates for HCM (1:543) and DCM (1:220). In aggregate, the penetrance by late adulthood of rare, pathogenic variants (23% for HCM, 35% for DCM) and likely pathogenic variants (7% for HCM, 10% for DCM) was substantial for dominant cardiomyopathy (CM). Penetrance was significantly higher for variant subgroups annotated as loss of function or ultra-rare and for males compared to females for variants in HCM-associated genes. We estimated variant-specific penetrance for 316 recurrent variants most likely to be identified as SFs (found in 51% of HCM- and 17% of DCM-affected individuals). 49 variants were observed at least ten times (14% of affected individuals) in HCM-associated genes. Median penetrance was 14.6% (±14.4% SD). We explore estimates of penetrance by age, sex, and ancestry and simulate the impact of including future cohorts. This dataset reports penetrance of individual variants at scale and will inform the management of individuals undergoing genetic screening for SFs. While most variants had low penetrance and the costs and harms of screening are unclear, some individuals with highly penetrant variants may benefit from SFs. [Display omitted] The importance of estimating the penetrance of individual variants, i.e., the probability of developing disease given a DNA variant, to guide intervention is ever increasing. We undertake a cross-sectional approach, meta-analyzing unique, large cardiomyopathy referral cohorts and leveraging publicly available population-based cohorts to estimate variant-specific penetrance for rare CM-associated variants. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While pathogenic variants can significantly increase disease risk, it is still challenging to estimate the clinical impact of rare missense variants more generally. Even in genes such as BRCA2 or PALB2 , large cohort studies find no significant association between breast cancer and rare missense variants collectively. Here, we introduce REGatta, a method to estimate clinical risk from variants in smaller segments of individual genes. We first define these regions by using the density of pathogenic diagnostic reports and then calculate the relative risk in each region by using over 200,000 exome sequences in the UK Biobank. We apply this method in 13 genes with established roles across several monogenic disorders. In genes with no significant difference at the gene level, this approach significantly separates disease risk for individuals with rare missense variants at higher or lower risk (BRCA2 regional model OR = 1.46 [1.12, 1.79], p = 0.0036 vs. BRCA2 gene model OR = 0.96 [0.85, 1.07] p = 0.4171). We find high concordance between these regional risk estimates and high-throughput functional assays of variant impact. We compare our method with existing methods and the use of protein domains (Pfam) as regions and find REGatta better identifies individuals at elevated or reduced risk. These regions provide useful priors and are potentially useful for improving risk assessment for genes associated with monogenic diseases. Methods to identify regions of genes that are most functionally impactful have relied on structural, evolutionary, and population data. We extend these approaches with REGatta, a method to estimate the clinical risk conferred by variants in regions of genes with established disease phenotypes using diagnostic and population cohort data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Genome-wide association studies (GWASs) have identified more than 200 genomic loci for breast cancer risk, but specific causal genes in most of these loci have not been identified. In fact, transcriptome-wide association studies (TWASs) of breast cancer performed using gene expression prediction models trained in breast tissue have yet to clearly identify most target genes. To identify candidate genes, we performed a GWAS analysis in a breast cancer dataset from UK Biobank (UKB) and combined the results with the GWAS results of the Breast Cancer Association Consortium (BCAC) by a meta-analysis. Using the summary statistics from the meta-analysis, we performed a joint TWAS analysis that combined TWAS signals from multiple tissues. We used expression prediction models trained in 11 tissues that are potentially relevant to breast cancer from the Genotype-Tissue Expression (GTEx) data. In the GWAS analysis, we identified eight loci distinct from those reported previously. In the TWAS analysis, we identified 309 genes at 108 genomic loci to be significantly associated with breast cancer at the Bonferroni threshold. Of these, 17 genes were located in eight regions that were at least 1 Mb away from published GWAS hits. The remaining TWAS-significant genes were located in 100 known genomic loci from previous GWASs of breast cancer. We found that 21 genes located in known GWAS loci remained statistically significant after conditioning on previous GWAS index variants. Our study provides insights into breast cancer genetics through mapping candidate target genes in a large proportion of known GWAS loci and discovering multiple new loci. Gao and colleagues identify eight loci of breast cancer susceptibility in a genome-wide association study. By leveraging gene expression data from multiple tissues, they also discover 309 breast cancer susceptibility genes in a transcriptome-wide association study. Known genetic risk variants could act on these genes to cause breast cancer. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The advent of large-scale genome-wide association studies (GWASs) has motivated the development of statistical methods for phenotype prediction with single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) array data. These polygenic risk score (PRS) methods use a multiple linear regression framework to infer joint effect sizes of all genetic variants on the trait. Among the subset of PRS methods that operate on GWAS summary statistics, sparse Bayesian methods have shown competitive predictive ability. However, most existing Bayesian approaches employ Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms, which are computationally inefficient and do not scale favorably to higher dimensions, for posterior inference. Here, we introduce variational inference of polygenic risk scores (VIPRS), a Bayesian summary statistics-based PRS method that utilizes variational inference techniques to approximate the posterior distribution for the effect sizes. Our experiments with 36 simulation configurations and 12 real phenotypes from the UK Biobank dataset demonstrated that VIPRS is consistently competitive with the state-of-the-art in prediction accuracy while being more than twice as fast as popular MCMC-based approaches. This performance advantage is robust across a variety of genetic architectures, SNP heritabilities, and independent GWAS cohorts. In addition to its competitive accuracy on the "White British" samples, VIPRS showed improved transferability when applied to other ethnic groups, with up to 1.7-fold increase in R 2 among individuals of Nigerian ancestry for low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol. To illustrate its scalability, we applied VIPRS to a dataset of 9.6 million genetic markers, which conferred further improvements in prediction accuracy for highly polygenic traits, such as height. [Display omitted] We present VIPRS, a fast and accurate variational Bayesian method for estimating polygenic risk scores from genome-wide association study (GWAS) data. The method is shown to be robust and competitively accurate against popular baselines and scales well to dense genotype array data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The true prevalence and penetrance of monogenic disease variants are often not known because of clinical-referral ascertainment bias. We comprehensively assess the penetrance and prevalence of pathogenic variants in HNF1A , HNF4A , and GCK that account for >80% of monogenic diabetes. We analyzed clinical and genetic data from 1,742 clinically referred probands, 2,194 family members, clinically unselected individuals from a US health system-based cohort (n = 132,194), and a UK population-based cohort (n = 198,748). We show that one in 1,500 individuals harbor a pathogenic variant in one of these genes. The penetrance of diabetes for HNF1A and HNF4A pathogenic variants was substantially lower in the clinically unselected individuals compared to clinically referred probands and was dependent on the setting (32% in the population, 49% in the health system cohort, 86% in a family member, and 98% in probands for HNF1A). The relative risk of diabetes was similar across the clinically unselected cohorts highlighting the role of environment/other genetic factors. Surprisingly, the penetrance of pathogenic GCK variants was similar across all cohorts (89%–97%). We highlight that pathogenic variants in HNF1A , HNF4A , and GCK are not ultra-rare in the population. For HNF1A and HNF4A , we need to tailor genetic interpretation and counseling based on the setting in which a pathogenic monogenic variant was identified. GCK is an exception with near-complete penetrance in all settings. This along with the clinical implication of diagnosis makes it an excellent candidate for the American College of Medical Genetics secondary gene list. The prevalence of pathogenic variants in common MODY-associated genes are ∼1:1,500 in the population. The penetrance of pathogenic HNF1A and HNF4A variants, but not of GCK variants, is substantially lower when found incidentally. Our findings are important for incidental reporting of pathogenic variants in MODY and other monogenic disorders. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Whole-genome sequencing (WGS) is the gold standard for fully characterizing genetic variation but is still prohibitively expensive for large samples. To reduce costs, many studies sequence only a subset of individuals or genomic regions, and genotype imputation is used to infer genotypes for the remaining individuals or regions without sequencing data. However, not all variants can be well imputed, and the current state-of-the-art imputation quality metric, denoted as standard Rsq, is poorly calibrated for lower-frequency variants. Here, we propose MagicalRsq, a machine-learning-based method that integrates variant-level imputation and population genetics statistics, to provide a better calibrated imputation quality metric. Leveraging WGS data from the Cystic Fibrosis Genome Project (CFGP), and whole-exome sequence data from UK BioBank (UKB), we performed comprehensive experiments to evaluate the performance of MagicalRsq compared to standard Rsq for partially sequenced studies. We found that MagicalRsq aligns better with true R2 than standard Rsq in almost every situation evaluated, for both European and African ancestry samples. For example, when applying models trained from 1,992 CFGP sequenced samples to an independent 3,103 samples with no sequencing but TOPMed imputation from array genotypes, MagicalRsq, compared to standard Rsq, achieved net gains of 1.4 million rare, 117k low-frequency, and 18k common variants, where net gains were gained numbers of correctly distinguished variants by MagicalRsq over standard Rsq. MagicalRsq can serve as an improved post-imputation quality metric and will benefit downstream analysis by better distinguishing well-imputed variants from those poorly imputed. MagicalRsq is freely available on GitHub. [Display omitted] Ever-growing reference panels allow imputation of huge number (∼108) of lower-frequency variants. However, not all variants can be well imputed and standard imputation quality metric poorly reflects true imputation quality, particularly for uncommon variants. We present MagicalRsq, a machine-learning-based and better calibrated post-imputation quality metric, that can rescue 105–106 variants. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many rare monogenic diseases are known to be caused by deleterious variants in thousands of genes, however the same variants can also be found in people without the associated clinical phenotypes. The penetrance of these monogenic variants is generally unknown in the wider population, as they are typically identified in small clinical cohorts of affected individuals and families with highly penetrant variants. Here, we investigated the phenotypic effect of rare, potentially deleterious variants in genes and loci where similar variants are known to cause monogenic developmental disorders (DDs) in a large population cohort. We used UK Biobank to investigate phenotypes associated with rare protein-truncating and missense variants in 599 monoallelic DDG2P genes by using whole-exome-sequencing data from ∼200,000 individuals and rare copy-number variants overlapping known DD loci by using SNP-array data from ∼500,000 individuals. We found that individuals with these likely deleterious variants had a mild DD-related phenotype, including lower fluid intelligence, slower reaction times, lower numeric memory scores, and longer pairs matching times compared to the rest of the UK Biobank cohort. They were also shorter, had a higher BMI, and had significant socioeconomic disadvantages: they were less likely to be employed or be able to work and had a lower income and higher deprivation index. Our findings suggest that many genes routinely tested within pediatric genetics have deleterious variants with intermediate penetrance that may cause lifelong sub-clinical phenotypes in the general adult population. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Current publicly available tools that allow rapid exploration of linkage disequilibrium (LD) between markers (e.g., HaploReg and LDlink) are based on whole-genome sequence (WGS) data from 2,504 individuals in the 1000 Genomes Project. Here, we present TOP-LD, an online tool to explore LD inferred with high-coverage (∼30×) WGS data from 15,578 individuals in the NHLBI Trans-Omics for Precision Medicine (TOPMed) program. TOP-LD provides a significant upgrade compared to current LD tools, as the TOPMed WGS data provide a more comprehensive representation of genetic variation than the 1000 Genomes data, particularly for rare variants and in the specific populations that we analyzed. For example, TOP-LD encompasses LD information for 150.3, 62.2, and 36.7 million variants for European, African, and East Asian ancestral samples, respectively, offering 2.6- to 9.1-fold increase in variant coverage compared to HaploReg 4.0 or LDlink. In addition, TOP-LD includes tens of thousands of structural variants (SVs). We demonstrate the value of TOP-LD in fine-mapping at the GGT1 locus associated with gamma glutamyltransferase in the African ancestry participants in UK Biobank. Beyond fine-mapping, TOP-LD can facilitate a wide range of applications that are based on summary statistics and estimates of LD. TOP-LD is freely available online. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The spleen plays a key role in iron homeostasis. It is the largest filter of the blood and performs iron reuptake from old or damaged erythrocytes. Despite this role, spleen iron concentration has not been measured in a large, population-based cohort. In this study, we quantify spleen iron in 41,764 participants of the UK Biobank by using magnetic resonance imaging and provide a reference range for spleen iron in an unselected population. Through genome-wide association study, we identify associations between spleen iron and regulatory variation at two hereditary spherocytosis genes, ANK1 and SPTA1. Spherocytosis-causing coding mutations in these genes are associated with lower reticulocyte volume and increased reticulocyte percentage, while these common alleles are associated with increased expression of ANK1 and SPTA1 in blood and with larger reticulocyte volume and reduced reticulocyte percentage. As genetic modifiers, these common alleles may explain mild spherocytosis phenotypes that have been observed clinically. Our genetic study also identifies a signal that co-localizes with a splicing quantitative trait locus for MS4A7 , and we show this gene is abundantly expressed in the spleen and in macrophages. The combination of deep learning and efficient image processing enables non-invasive measurement of spleen iron and, in turn, characterization of genetic factors related to the lytic phase of the erythrocyte life cycle and iron reuptake in the spleen. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

One mechanism by which genetic factors influence complex traits and diseases is altering gene expression. Direct measurement of gene expression in relevant tissues is rarely tenable; however, genetically regulated gene expression (GReX) can be estimated using prediction models derived from large multi-omic datasets. These approaches have led to the discovery of many gene-trait associations, but whether models derived from predominantly European ancestry (EA) reference panels can map novel associations in ancestrally diverse populations remains unclear. We applied PrediXcan to impute GReX in 51,520 ancestrally diverse Population Architecture using Genomics and Epidemiology (PAGE) participants (35% African American, 45% Hispanic/Latino, 10% Asian, and 7% Hawaiian) across 25 key cardiometabolic traits and relevant tissues to identify 102 novel associations. We then compared associations in PAGE to those in a random subset of 50,000 White British participants from UK Biobank (UKBB 50k) for height and body mass index (BMI). We identified 517 associations across 47 tissues in PAGE but not UKBB 50k , demonstrating the importance of diverse samples in identifying trait-associated GReX. We observed that variants used in PrediXcan models were either more or less differentiated across continental-level populations than matched-control variants depending on the specific population reflecting sampling bias. Additionally, variants from identified genes specific to either PAGE or UKBB 50k analyses were more ancestrally differentiated than those in genes detected in both analyses, underlining the value of population-specific discoveries. This suggests that while EA-derived transcriptome imputation models can identify new associations in non-EA populations, models derived from closely matched reference panels may yield further insights. Our findings call for more diversity in reference datasets of tissue-specific gene expression. [Display omitted] [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Inferring the structure of human populations from genetic variation data is a key task in population and medical genomic studies. Although a number of methods for population structure inference have been proposed, current methods are impractical to run on biobank-scale genomic datasets containing millions of individuals and genetic variants. We introduce SCOPE, a method for population structure inference that is orders of magnitude faster than existing methods while achieving comparable accuracy. SCOPE infers population structure in about a day on a dataset containing one million individuals and variants as well as on the UK Biobank dataset containing 488,363 individuals and 569,346 variants. Furthermore, SCOPE can leverage allele frequencies from previous studies to improve the interpretability of population structure estimates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Whole-genome sequencing studies applied to large populations or biobanks with extensive phenotyping raise new analytic challenges. The need to consider many variants at a locus or group of genes simultaneously and the potential to study many correlated phenotypes with shared genetic architecture provide opportunities for discovery not addressed by the traditional one variant, one phenotype association study. Here, we introduce a Bayesian model comparison approach called MRP (multiple rare variants and phenotypes) for rare-variant association studies that considers correlation, scale, and direction of genetic effects across a group of genetic variants, phenotypes, and studies, requiring only summary statistic data. We apply our method to exome sequencing data (n = 184,698) across 2,019 traits from the UK Biobank, aggregating signals in genes. MRP demonstrates an ability to recover signals such as associations between PCSK9 and LDL cholesterol levels. We additionally find MRP effective in conducting meta-analyses in exome data. Non-biomarker findings include associations between MC1R and red hair color and skin color, IL17RA and monocyte count, and IQGAP2 and mean platelet volume. Finally, we apply MRP in a multi-phenotype setting; after clustering the 35 biomarker phenotypes based on genetic correlation estimates, we find that joint analysis of these phenotypes results in substantial power gains for gene-trait associations, such as in TNFRSF13B in one of the clusters containing diabetes- and lipid-related traits. Overall, we show that the MRP model comparison approach improves upon useful features from widely used meta-analysis approaches for rare-variant association analyses and prioritizes protective modifiers of disease risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Knockoff-based methods have become increasingly popular due to their enhanced power for locus discovery and their ability to prioritize putative causal variants in a genome-wide analysis. However, because of the substantial computational cost for generating knockoffs, existing knockoff approaches cannot analyze millions of rare genetic variants in biobank-scale whole-genome sequencing and whole-genome imputed datasets. We propose a scalable knockoff-based method for the analysis of common and rare variants across the genome, KnockoffScreen-AL , that is applicable to biobank-scale studies with hundreds of thousands of samples and millions of genetic variants. The application of KnockoffScreen-AL to the analysis of Alzheimer disease (AD) in 388,051 WG-imputed samples from the UK Biobank resulted in 31 significant loci, including 14 loci that are missed by conventional association tests on these data. We perform replication studies in an independent meta-analysis of clinically diagnosed AD with 94,437 samples, and additionally leverage single-cell RNA-sequencing data with 143,793 single-nucleus transcriptomes from 17 control subjects and AD-affected individuals, and proteomics data from 735 control subjects and affected indviduals with AD and related disorders to validate the genes at these significant loci. These multi-omics analyses show that 79.1% of the proximal genes at these loci and 76.2% of the genes at loci identified only by KnockoffScreen-AL exhibit at least suggestive signal (p < 0.05) in the scRNA-seq or proteomics analyses. We highlight a potentially causal gene in AD progression, EGFR , that shows significant differences in expression and protein levels between AD-affected individuals and healthy control subjects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]