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Premise: Understanding species' responses to climate change is a critical challenge facing biologists today. Though many species are widespread, few studies of climate-driven shifts in flowering time have examined large continuous spatial scales for individual species. And even fewer studies have examined these shifts at time scales greater than a few decades., Methods: We used digitized herbarium specimens and PRISM climate data to produce the spatially and temporally broadest-scale study of flowering time in a single species to date, spanning the contiguous United States and 153 years (1863-2016) for a widespread weedy annual, Triodanis perfoliata (Campanulaceae). We examined factors driving phenological shifts as well as the roles of geographic and temporal scale in understanding these trends., Results: Year was a significant factor in both geospatial and climatic analyses, revealing that flowering time has advanced by ~9 days over the past ~150 years. We found that temperature as well as vapor pressure deficit, an understudied climatic parameter associated with evapotranspiration and water stress, were strongly associated with peak flowering. We also examined how sampling at different spatiotemporal scales influences the power to detect flowering-time shifts, finding that relatively large spatial and temporal scales are ideal for detecting flowering-time shifts in this widespread species., Conclusions: Our results emphasize the importance of understanding the interplay of geospatial factors at different scales to examine how species respond to climate change., (© 2019 Botanical Society of America.)

Premise of Study: In a seminal body of theory, Lloyd showed that the fitness consequences of selfing will depend on its timing in anthesis. Selfing that occurs after opportunities for outcrossing or pollen dispersal can provide reproductive assurance when pollinators are limited and is expected to incur little cost, even when inbreeding depression is high. As a result, delayed selfing is often interpreted as a "best-of-both-worlds" mating system that combines the advantages of selfing and outcrossing., Methods: We surveyed 65 empirical studies of delayed selfing, recording floral mechanisms and examining information on inbreeding depression, autofertility, and other parameters to test the support for delayed selfing as a best-of-both-worlds strategy., Key Results: Phylogenetic distribution of the diverse floral mechanisms suggests that some basic floral structures may predispose plant taxa to evolve delayed selfing. Delayed selfing appears to serve as a best-of-both-worlds strategy in some but not all species. While the capacity for autonomous selfing is often high, it is lower, in some cases, than in related species with earlier modes of selfing. In other delayed-selfers, low inbreeding depression and reduced investment in corollas and pollen suggest limited benefits from outcrossing., Conclusions: Despite a growing literature on the subject, experimental evidence for delayed selfing is limited and major gaps in knowledge remain, particularly with respect to the stability of delayed selfing and the conditions that may favor transitions between delayed and earlier selfing. Finally, we suggest a potential role of delayed selfing in facilitating transitions from self-incompatibility to selfing., (© 2018 The Authors. American Journal of Botany is published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of the Botanical Society of America.)

Premise of the Study: Climate change is a widely accepted threat to biodiversity. Species distribution models (SDMs) are used to forecast whether and how species distributions may track these changes. Yet, SDMs generally fail to account for genetic and demographic processes, limiting population-level inferences. We still do not understand how predicted environmental shifts will impact the spatial distribution of genetic diversity within taxa., Methods: We propose a novel method that predicts spatially explicit genetic and demographic landscapes of populations under future climatic conditions. We use carefully parameterized SDMs as estimates of the spatial distribution of suitable habitats and landscape dispersal permeability under present-day, past, and future conditions. We use empirical genetic data and approximate Bayesian computation to estimate unknown demographic parameters. Finally, we employ these parameters to simulate realistic and complex models of responses to future environmental shifts. We contrast parameterized models under current and future landscapes to quantify the expected magnitude of change., Key Results: We implement this framework on neutral genetic data available from Penstemon deustus. Our results predict that future climate change will result in geographically widespread declines in genetic diversity in this species. The extent of reduction will heavily depend on the continuity of population networks and deme sizes., Conclusions: To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide spatially explicit predictions of within-species genetic diversity using climatic, demographic, and genetic data. Our approach accounts for climatic, geographic, and biological complexity. This framework is promising for understanding evolutionary consequences of climate change, and guiding conservation planning., (© 2016 Botanical Society of America.)

Premise of the Study: Project Baseline is a seed bank that offers an unprecedented opportunity to examine spatial and temporal dimensions of microevolution during an era of rapid environmental change. Over the upcoming 50 years, biologists will withdraw genetically representative samples of past populations from this time capsule of seeds and grow them contemporaneously with modern samples to detect any phenotypic and molecular evolution that has occurred during the intervening time., Methods: We carefully developed this living genome bank using protocols to enhance its experimental value by collecting from multiple populations and species across a broad geographical range in sites that are likely to be preserved into the future. Seeds are accessioned with site and population data and are stored by maternal line under conditions that maximize seed longevity. This open-access resource will be available to researchers at regular intervals to evaluate contemporary evolution., Key Results: To date, the Project Baseline collection includes 100-200 maternal lines of each of 61 species collected from over 831 populations on sites that are likely to be preserved into the future across the United States (∼78,000 maternal lines). Our strategically designed collection circumvents some problems that can cloud the results of "resurrection" studies involving naturally preserved or existing seed collections that are available fortuitously., Conclusions: The resurrection approach can be coupled with long-established and newer techniques over the next five decades to elucidate genetic change and thereby vastly improve our understanding of temporal and spatial changes in phenotype and the evolutionary processes underlying it., (© 2016 Botanical Society of America.)

In an age of rapid global change, it is imperative that we continue to improve our understanding of factors that govern genetic differentiation in plants to inform biologically reasonable predictions for the future and enlighten conservation and restoration practices. In this special issue, we have assembled a set of original research and reviews that employ diverse approaches, both classic and contemporary, to illuminate patterns of phenotypic and genetic variation, probe the underlying evolutionary processes that have contributed to these patterns, build predictive models, and test evolutionary hypotheses. Our goal was to underscore the unique insights that can be obtained through the complementary and distinct studies of plant populations across species' geographic ranges., (© 2016 Botanical Society of America.)

Premise of the Study: Variation among individuals in levels of inbreeding depression associated with selfing levels could influence mating system evolution by purging deleterious alleles, but empirical evidence for this association is limited., Methods: We investigated the association of family-level inbreeding depression and presumed inbreeding history in a tristylous population of Oxalis alpina (Oxalidaceae)., Key Results: Mid-styled individuals possessed the greatest degree of self-compatibility (SC) and produced more autogamous capsules than short- or long-styled individuals. Offspring of highly self-compatible mid-styled individuals showed reduced inbreeding depression. Mid-styled plants that produced capsules autogamously exhibited reduced stigma-anther separation compared to mid-styled plants that produced no capsules autogamously. Reduced inbreeding depression was not correlated with stigma-anther separation, suggesting that self-compatibility and autogamy evolve before morphological changes in stigma-anther separation., Conclusions: Purging of inbreeding depression occurred in SC mid-styled maternal families. Low inbreeding depression in SC mid-styled plants may lead to retention of the mid-styled morph in populations, despite the occurrence of higher selfing rates in mid-styled relative to short- or long-styled morphs. Variation among individuals in levels of self-fertilization within populations may lead to associations between inbreeding lineages and lower levels of inbreeding depression, influencing the evolution of mating systems.

When fertilization triggers flower senescence, early autonomous selfing may cause flowers to senesce before pollen has dispersed, discounting unused pollen. Selfing-induced flower senescence was examined in Leptosiphon jepsonii, a species that varies in the timing of self-compatibility. In field and greenhouse experiments, fertilization had a large effect on flower senescence; most outcrossed flowers senesced after 1 d whereas emasculated flowers lasted 2-5 d. In a comparison of inbred lines from three populations, longevity of autonomously selfed flowers of early self-compatible individuals was significantly less than that of late self-compatible individuals. In field experiments, autonomously selfed flowers were shorter-lived in a predominantly early-selfing population than in a predominantly late-selfing population. Pollen was available and viable beyond the first day of anthesis, suggesting that reductions in flower longevity caused by autonomous selfing could incur a cost to male outcross fitness. We argue that this effect is likely to be most pronounced under intermediate rates of pollinator visitation. Observed pollinator visitation rates ranged from 0.035-0.775 visits per flower per day, indicating a potential for selfing-induced flower senescence to incur pollen discounting in Leptosiphon jepsonii.